Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 1
| Roberto SARACCO|Telecom Italia – Future Center |
Changes in Telecommunicationsand
Biz Paradigms in this Decade
[email protected]@[email protected]@telecomitalia.it
1
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
OUTLINE
�When getting better is for the worse
�The Future is no longer what it used to be
�Technology keeps evolving…so what?
�Business at the time of Ecosystem
�My cell phone in 2015
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 2
2
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
When Getting Better is for the Worse
3
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
When Getting Better is for the Worse
MARKET SPACE
ORGANIZATION
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 3
4
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
When Getting Better is for the Worse
MARKET SPACE
ORGANIZATION
Coase Ceiling
Coase Floor
5
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
When Getting Better is for the Worse
MARKET SPACE
ORGANIZATION
Coase Ceiling
Coase Floor
ECOSYSTEMS
ECOSYSTEMS
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 4
6
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Positioning Options for a Network Operator
�Bit Carrier
�Service Enabler
Overlay Networks of autonomic componentsOverlay Networks of autonomic componentsOverlay Networks of autonomic componentsOverlay Networks of autonomic components
�Service Provider
EcoEcoEcoEco----systems of servicessystems of servicessystems of servicessystems of services
7
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Surfing your pond? Looking for new Oceans ?
RevenuesRevenuesRevenuesRevenues OPEXOPEXOPEXOPEX
MarginsMarginsMarginsMargins
Evolution over timeEvolution over timeEvolution over timeEvolution over time
Research and Innovation to:Research and Innovation to:Research and Innovation to:Research and Innovation to:
2. Increase Revenues 2. Increase Revenues 2. Increase Revenues 2. Increase Revenues
expanding offer &expanding offer &expanding offer &expanding offer &
Mkt ShareMkt ShareMkt ShareMkt Share
1. Decrease cost 1. Decrease cost 1. Decrease cost 1. Decrease cost –––– Optimize InvestmentOptimize InvestmentOptimize InvestmentOptimize Investment
3. Enter new Market Spaces3. Enter new Market Spaces3. Enter new Market Spaces3. Enter new Market Spaces
EMBEDDED COMMUNICATIONS EMBEDDED COMMUNICATIONS EMBEDDED COMMUNICATIONS EMBEDDED COMMUNICATIONS
New MarketsNew MarketsNew MarketsNew Markets
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 5
8
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
The Future is no longer what it used to be
� Predictable Future: Technology Leads
Market Leads
� Few Innovators, Big Investment
Innovation Everywhere, Affordable
� Scarce Resources, Efficiency wins
Abundance, Simplicity wins
� Network (Infrastructure) leads Innovation
Terminals lead Innovation
� Scale factor dominates Production
Customization and Flexibility win
� If you want something, you pay for it
If you look around …
you get a better deal
9
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
The Future is no longer what it used to be – Standards…
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 6
10
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
The Future is no longer what it used to be –Infrastr. vs Infrastructures
OverlayNetworks
IPv4IPv4IPv4IPv4
IPv6IPv6IPv6IPv6
AS1AS1AS1AS1
AS2AS2AS2AS2
AS3AS3AS3AS3
Private Networks
Other Networks(e.g., Mesh)
11
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technology keeps evolving. So What?
2 TB by 2012, WiFi Embedded
10+ TB by 2012, in the home
Information is here
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 7
12
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020
13
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technology keeps evolving. So What?
20 nm, nW, Optics and Radio Embedded
Printed electronics <0,001c per mm2
Connected Objects
2 TB by 2012, WiFi Embedded
10+ TB by 2012, in the home
Information is here
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 8
14
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Quanti Computer abbiamo in casa?
2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020
15
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technology keeps evolving. So What?
20 nm, nW, Optics and Radio Embedded
Printed electronics <0,001c per mm2
Connected Objects
2 TB by 2012, WiFi Embedded
10+ TB by 2012, in the home
Information is here
4 nm beyond 2020, carbon based
Memristors
“Experienced” objects
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 9
16
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technology keeps evolving. So What?
1 Gbps in every home
10 Mbps everywhere
Bandwidth is no longer a constraint
17
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 10
18
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technology keeps evolving. So What?
1 Gbps in every home
10 Mbps everywhere
Bandwidth is no longer a constraint
Terminals create local networks
Store and forward managed by the terminal
Terminals get the upper hand (on the network)
19
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technology keeps evolving. So What?
4/8 k screens - ultra HD
Haptic Interfaces, gesture recogn.
Being there, presence, immersion
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 11
20
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020
21
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technology keeps evolving. So What?
4/8 k screens - ultra HD
Haptic Interfaces, gesture recogn.
Being there, presence, immersion
Image recognition
Image understanding
Third party service components
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 12
22
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technology keeps evolving. So What?
Variety of sensors
Flexibility, integration, local data processing
Context awareness
23
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
2010201020102010 2015201520152015 2020202020202020
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 13
24
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technology keeps evolving. So What?
Variety of sensors
Flexibility, integration, local data processing
Context awareness
Micro actuators
Wireless connection, local awareness
Autonomic Systems
25
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technology keeps evolving. So What?
Statistical data processing, metadata
Semantics structures
Value shifts from information to relations
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 14
26
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technology keeps evolving. So What?
Statistical data processing, metadata
Semantics structures
Value shifts from information to relations
Cloud based data processing, storage
Razor thin margins, commodity model
Cloudy future for the cloud, cloud at the edges?
27
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technology Roadmaps Impact on Demand
UpstreamUpstreamUpstreamUpstream
BandwidthBandwidthBandwidthBandwidth
PresencePresencePresencePresence
Fading BndrFading BndrFading BndrFading Bndr
Real vs Virt.Real vs Virt.Real vs Virt.Real vs Virt.
Here Here Here Here
and Nowand Nowand Nowand Now
PersonalPersonalPersonalPersonal
IdentityIdentityIdentityIdentity
ContextContextContextContext
AwarenessAwarenessAwarenessAwareness
SeamlessSeamlessSeamlessSeamless
Communicat.Communicat.Communicat.Communicat.
MassiveMassiveMassiveMassive
AutomationAutomationAutomationAutomation
Data Data Data Data
ResilienceResilienceResilienceResilience
ZeroZeroZeroZero CostCostCostCost
High QualityHigh QualityHigh QualityHigh Quality
StorageStorageStorageStorage
ProcessingProcessingProcessingProcessingDisplayDisplayDisplayDisplay
SensorsSensorsSensorsSensors
BiometricsBiometricsBiometricsBiometrics
HandheldHandheldHandheldHandheld
RoboticsRoboticsRoboticsRobotics
RadioRadioRadioRadio
FibreFibreFibreFibre
Image RecogImage RecogImage RecogImage Recog
EnergyEnergyEnergyEnergy
SecuritySecuritySecuritySecurity
DevicesDevicesDevicesDevicesTerminalsTerminalsTerminalsTerminals Real LifeReal LifeReal LifeReal Life
InterfacesInterfacesInterfacesInterfaces
AIAIAIAI
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 15
28
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technology Roadmaps Impact on Connectivity Infrastr. Offer
Symmetric Symmetric Symmetric Symmetric
BandwidthBandwidthBandwidthBandwidth
MultipleMultipleMultipleMultiple
AccessAccessAccessAccess
BurstBurstBurstBurst
Communicat.Communicat.Communicat.Communicat.
TransactionTransactionTransactionTransaction
Orient. Com.Orient. Com.Orient. Com.Orient. Com.
Low LatencyLow LatencyLow LatencyLow Latency
100 TB Fix100 TB Fix100 TB Fix100 TB Fix
Multi GBMulti GBMulti GBMulti GB
RadioRadioRadioRadio
HighHighHighHigh
resilenceresilenceresilenceresilence
Flexible RsFlexible RsFlexible RsFlexible Rs
usageusageusageusage
ZeroZeroZeroZero CostCostCostCost
High QualityHigh QualityHigh QualityHigh Quality
StorageStorageStorageStorage
ProcessingProcessingProcessingProcessing
SensorsSensorsSensorsSensors
RoutingRoutingRoutingRouting
FibreFibreFibreFibre
AutonomicsAutonomicsAutonomicsAutonomics
RadioRadioRadioRadio
TransportTransportTransportTransport
Local AreaLocal AreaLocal AreaLocal Area
EnergyEnergyEnergyEnergy
DevicesDevicesDevicesDevicesTerminalsTerminalsTerminalsTerminals
Network Network Network Network NodesNodesNodesNodes
29
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technology Roadmaps Impact on IT Platforms Infrastructure
MassiveMassiveMassiveMassive
Distrib. DBsDistrib. DBsDistrib. DBsDistrib. DBs
EcosystemsEcosystemsEcosystemsEcosystems
SupportSupportSupportSupport
OutsourcedOutsourcedOutsourcedOutsourced
Proc. MgtProc. MgtProc. MgtProc. Mgt
Call CentresCall CentresCall CentresCall Centres
supportsupportsupportsupport
MetalayerMetalayerMetalayerMetalayer
GenerationGenerationGenerationGeneration
TrustedTrustedTrustedTrusted
EnvironmentEnvironmentEnvironmentEnvironment
EcosystemsEcosystemsEcosystemsEcosystems
Mgt.Mgt.Mgt.Mgt.
VirtualisationVirtualisationVirtualisationVirtualisation
Mgt.Mgt.Mgt.Mgt.
TransactionTransactionTransactionTransaction
Mgt.Mgt.Mgt.Mgt.
ValueValueValueValue
GenerationGenerationGenerationGeneration
StorageStorageStorageStorage
ProcessingProcessingProcessingProcessing
SensorsSensorsSensorsSensors
Data MgtData MgtData MgtData Mgt
Self Self Self Self AssemblingAssemblingAssemblingAssembling
RoboticsRoboticsRoboticsRobotics
IdentityIdentityIdentityIdentity
DataDataDataDataLeveragingLeveragingLeveragingLeveraging
SecuritySecuritySecuritySecurity
EnergyEnergyEnergyEnergy
DevicesDevicesDevicesDevicesTerminalsTerminalsTerminalsTerminals
ImageImageImageImageRecognitionRecognitionRecognitionRecognition
AIAIAIAI
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 16
30
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
The long, thin tale
Σ Lt < Coase Floor
31
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Ecosystems are born: The Apple Apps Store
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 17
32
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Ecosystems are born: The Apple Apps Store
33
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Ecosystems are born: Androids and the Others
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 18
34
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Is there a Biz Opportunity (for us) in an Ecosystems’ World?
1.000.000.000 No of Apps downoload in 9 months 1.000.000.000 No of Apps downoload in 9 months 1.000.000.000 No of Apps downoload in 9 months 1.000.000.000 No of Apps downoload in 9 months ---- WorldWorldWorldWorld
20.000.000.000 of cell phone calls in 9 months 20.000.000.000 of cell phone calls in 9 months 20.000.000.000 of cell phone calls in 9 months 20.000.000.000 of cell phone calls in 9 months ---- Telecom Italia, ItaliaTelecom Italia, ItaliaTelecom Italia, ItaliaTelecom Italia, Italia
60 Ml E of Apps Revenue for Apple 60 Ml E of Apps Revenue for Apple 60 Ml E of Apps Revenue for Apple 60 Ml E of Apps Revenue for Apple
5.700 Ml E for TIM5.700 Ml E for TIM5.700 Ml E for TIM5.700 Ml E for TIM
35
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Is there a Biz Opportunity (for us) in an Ecosystems’ World?
TODAYTODAYTODAYTODAY
HE
ALT
H C
AR
EH
EA
LTH
CA
RE
HE
ALT
H C
AR
EH
EA
LTH
CA
RE
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 19
36
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Is there a Biz Opportunity (for us) in an Ecosystems’ World?
TOMORROWTOMORROWTOMORROWTOMORROW
HE
ALT
H C
AR
EH
EA
LTH
CA
RE
HE
ALT
H C
AR
EH
EA
LTH
CA
RE
37
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
�What is the Integral of the “tale”?
�Do we know how to solve it?
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 20
38
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Ecosystems Enablers: Seeds
AuthenticationAuthenticationAuthenticationAuthentication
LocalizationLocalizationLocalizationLocalization
ProfilingProfilingProfilingProfiling
MapsMapsMapsMaps
IdentityIdentityIdentityIdentity
| Roberto SARACCO|Telecom Italia – Future Center |
� Main site : Venice San Salvador
� People from T.I . with technical, economic, social skill Consumer, Mobile and Top Client DivisionsTechnology and Operations
People from other Operators, Industry - CE – IT - Isti tut. � 12-16 post doct from all over the world
� Objectives:� Identification of new biz opportunities
in “telecom enabled” ecosystems
� Future Telecommunications Showcase
The Future Centre
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 21
40
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
TILab
Working at the Future Centre
Core FC
Weekly• brainstorming new ecosystem• ecosystem presentation on site
Monthly• ecosystem report• engaging the players – open event
HY-Milestone• Report: new biz models for new ecosystems• Event: Partnering for competition
YE-Milestone• Report: Opportunities, Challenges to get there• Event: The fabric for the future
5 of 1 leading 3 engaging 10 networking with 100
41
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technologies Sensors/AwarOptical Tags
Bar Codes/SemDNA/Nano MrkrsImage Localiz
RFID Print. Elect
OBJECTS Detection SystemsNetwork Mirror
CarsHand readers
Cell Phones/CaCell Phones
NFC
Business at the time of Ecosystems
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 22
42
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technologies
OBJECTS
DetectionSystems
Municipal.
Tourist Ag.
Product Pr.
Content Pr.
Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations
AM
BI
EN
T
43
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technologies
Municipal.
Tourist Ag.
Product Pr.
Content Pr.
Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations
AM
BI
EN
T
Ntw Pl/HostGoogle
Snapfish
Srv.Aggr.
Track/V.A
CO
NN
EC
TIV
.
OBJECTS
DetectionSystems
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 23
44
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technologies
Municipal.
Tourist Ag.
Product Pr.
Content Pr.
Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations
AM
BI
EN
T
Platforms
Srv.Aggr.
Track/V.A
Aggregators
CO
NN
EC
TIV
.
OBJECTS Detection Systems
45
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technologies
Municipal.
Tourist Ag.
Product Pr.
Content Pr.
Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations
AM
BI
EN
T
Platforms
Srv.Aggr.
Track/V.A
META Data C.
Stat.MeaningE.
Pers.Aggreg.
Ambient Creat.
Serv.Prov.Aggregators
CO
NN
EC
TIV
.
CO
NT
EX
T-M
EA
NIN
G
OBJECTS DetectionSystems
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 24
46
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Technologies
Municipal.
Tourist Ag.
Product Pr.
Content Pr.
Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations
AM
BI
EN
T
Piattaforme
Srv.Aggr.
Track/V.A
META Data C.
Stat.MeaningE.
Pers.Aggreg.
Ambient Creat.
Devices
Logistics
CRM
PHARMA
News/Mg
Serv.Prov.Aggregators
CO
NN
EC
TIV
.
CO
NT
EX
T-M
EA
NIN
G
Industry
NE
W P
RO
CE
SS
ES
OBJECTS DetectionSystems
47
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Playing the Ecosystem Game: Future Industrial Districts
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 25
48
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Playing the Ecosystem Game: eEducation at School
49
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Playing the Ecosystem Game: Tourisms in the next Decade
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 26
50
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Playing the Ecosystem Game: Future of Retail
51
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Telecommunications 2015-A user view
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 27
52
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Telecommunications 2015-A user view
53
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Telecommunications 2015-A user view
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 28
54
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Telecommunications 2015-A user view
55
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
Telecommunications 2015-A user view
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 29
56
| Roberto SARACCO | Future Center
The vineyard The vineyard The vineyard The vineyard
Wine tasting Wine tasting Wine tasting Wine tasting
Buy! Buy! Buy! Buy!
Your dietYour dietYour dietYour diet
Wine HistoryWine HistoryWine HistoryWine History
Telecommunications 2015-A user view
| Roberto SARACCO|Telecom Italia – Future Center |
Telecommunications 2015-A user view
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 30
| Roberto SARACCO|Telecom Italia – Future Center |
Telecommunications 2015-A user view
| Roberto SARACCO|Telecom Italia – Future Center |
Telecommunications 2015-A user view
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 31
| Roberto SARACCO|Telecom Italia – Future Center |
Telecommunications 2015-A user view
| Roberto SARACCO|Telecom Italia – Future Center |
Telecommunications 2015-A user view
Evolving Next Generation Business
Models
Munich, December 5th 2008
R. Minerva – Telecom Italia 32
| Roberto SARACCO|Telecom Italia – Future Center |
Telecommunications 2015-A user view
| Roberto SARACCO|Telecom Italia – Future Center |
Changes in Telecommunications
& Biz Paradigms in this Decade
[email protected]@[email protected]@telecomitalia.it
Thanks