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Changing Demographics and Workforce Trends Statewide Census Analysis Phil Wheeler, AICP Planning Director Rochester Olmsted Planning Department
Changing Demographics
and Workforce TrendsStatewide Census Analysis
Phil Wheeler, AICP
Planning DirectorRochester Olmsted Planning
Department
2000-2010 Change, 10 Largest Cities
City 2000 2010
Change 2000-2010
% Change 2000-2010
2010 Minority
Population%
Minority
Minneapolis city 382,747 382,578 -169 0.00% 151,928 39.70%
St. Paul city 286,840 285,068 -1,772 -0.60% 125,631 44.10%
Rochester city 85,806 106,769 20,963 24.40% 22,161 20.80%
Duluth city 86,319 86,265 -54 -0.10% 9,081 10.50%
Bloomington city 85,172 82,893 -2,279 -2.70% 18,919 22.80%
Brooklyn Park city 67,388 75,781 8,393 12.50% 37,833 49.90%
Plymouth city 65,894 70,576 4,682 7.10% 12,336 17.50%
St. Cloud city 59,111 65,842 6,731 11.40% 10,988 16.70%
Eagan city 63,557 64,206 649 1.00% 13,340 20.80%
Woodbury city 46,463 61,961 15,498 33.40% 12,945 20.90%
2000-2010 Change, 10 Largest Counties
County 2000 2010
Change 2000-2010
% Change 2000-2010
2010 Minority
Population%
Minority
Hennepin County 1,116,039 1,152,425 36,386 3.30% 325,755 28.30%
Ramsey County 511,202 508,640 -2,562 -0.50% 168,446 33.10%
Dakota County 355,904 398,552 42,648 12.00% 70,590 17.70%
Anoka County 298,084 330,844 32,760 11.00% 48,915 14.80%
Washington County 201,130 238,136 37,006 18.40% 34,025 14.30%
St. Louis County 200,528 200,226 -302 -0.20% 15,457 7.70%
Stearns County 133,167 150,642 17,475 13.10% 14,228 9.40%
Olmsted County 124,277 144,248 19,971 16.10% 23,900 16.60%
Scott County 89,498 129,928 40,430 45.20% 20,112 15.50%
Wright County 89,993 124,700 34,707 38.60% 7,914 6.30%
Total
Population
by County
2010
Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/
Minority
Percentage
by County
2010
Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/
Total
Change in
Population
by County
201037 counties lost
population; 50 gained.
Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/
Change in Majority & Minority
Population by County 2010
Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/
Hispanic/Latino
Black (alone)
Asian
American Indian
Minority
Percentage
by County
2010
Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/
Population
Change by
County 2010
lost populationWhite non-Hispanic 50Hispanic Latino 0Black – non Hispanic 4Asian – non Hispanic 10
American Indian – 34
gained populationWhite non-Hispanic 37Hispanic Latino 86Black – non Hispanic 83
Asian – non Hispanic 77American Indian – 53
Hispanic/Latino
Black alone
Asian alone
American Indian
Source: ROPD based on Census: http://www.census.gov/
Total
Enrollment
by County
2009-10Four Twin Cities metro
counties account for
45% of all enrollment.
The next three largest
counties in enrollment
(Washington, Sibley, and
Wright) account for 11%
of all students.
Source: ROPD based on http://education.state.mn.us/MDE/Data/Data_Downloads/Student/Enrollment/District/index.html
Total Low SES
Enrollment by
County
2009-10Four Twin Cities metro
counties account for 49%
of low SES enrollment.
The next four largest
counties in SES enrollment
(Sibley, Stearns, Olmsted,
and Washington) account
for 10% of low SES students.
Source: ROPD based on http://education.state.mn.us/MDE/Data/Data_Downloads/Student/Enrollment/District/index.html
Total Enrollment and Low SES* Enrollment Change 2002-3 to 2009-10
*Defined as eligibility for free or reduced price meals.
Source: ROPD based on http://education.state.mn.us/MDE/Data/Data_Downloads/Student/Enrollment/District/index.html
Total Enrollment and LEP* Enrollment Change 2002-3 to 2009-10
*Limited English proficiency.
Source: ROPD based on http://education.state.mn.us/MDE/Data/Data_Downloads/Student/Enrollment/District/index.html
Total 1st
Quarter
Employment
by County
2010Four Twin Cities metro
counties account for 56%
of all jobs.
The next three largest
counties in employment
(Olmsted, St. Louis, and
Stearns) account for 10%
of all jobs.
Source: ROPD based on data from Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development http://www.positivelyminnesota.com/apps/lmi/qcew/AreaSel.aspx
Total 1st Quarter Employment in Minnesota – 2000 to 2010
Employment Sector 2010 2000 Change % Change
Total, All Industries (000000) 2,489,629 2,539,462 -49,833 -2.00%
Natural Resources and Mining (1011) 20,050 19,452 598 2.98%
Construction (1012) 77,987 106,138 -28,151 -36.10%
Manufacturing (1013) 283,941 390,345 -106,404 -37.47%
Trade, Transportation and Utilities (1021) 495,779 549,117 -53,338 -10.76%
Information (1022) 58,054 71,157 -13,103 -22.57%
Financial Activities (1023) 169,250 161,442 7,808 4.61%
Professional and Business Services (1024) 303,389 319,201 -15,812 -5.21%
Education and Health Services (1025) 644,238 506,016 138,222 21.46%
Leisure and Hospitality (1026) 235,845 221,452 14,393 6.10%
Other Services (1027) 81,052 86,787 -5,735 -7.08%
Public Administration (1028) 119,857 108,355 11,502 9.60%
Unclassified (1029) 182
Source: ROPD based on data from Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development http://www.positivelyminnesota.com/apps/lmi/qcew/AreaSel.aspx
• The total job loss for industries that lost
jobs was 220,000
– 120,000 jobs were lost in manufacturing
and information (both basic sector
industries)
• Losses were partly offset by gains of
138,000 in education and health care
(partly basic sector jobs)
Total 1st Quarter Employment in Minnesota
Total
Employment
Change by
County
2000-2010Net loss of ~50,000 jobs
over the decade (1st
quarter 2000 to 1st
quarter 2010.)
47 counties lost jobs, 40
gained jobs.
Source: ROPD based on data from Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development http://www.positivelyminnesota.com/apps/lmi/qcew/AreaSel.aspx
Where Workers Live Who Work in Rochester Census LEHD 2008 (~75% of total jobs)
Source: Census Longitudinal Employer-Households Dynamics http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/. NOTE: LEHD-tracked employment represents about 75% of total employment, based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
Where Workers Live Who Work in MinneapolisCensus LEHD 2008 (~75% of total jobs)
Source: Census Longitudinal Employer-Households Dynamics http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/. NOTE: LEHD-tracked employment represents about 75%of total employment, based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
Where Workers Live Who Work in St. Louis County Census LEHD 2008 (~75% of total jobs)
Source: Census Longitudinal Employer-Households Dynamics http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/. NOTE: LEHD-tracked employment represents about 75% of total employment, based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
2000 MN Population by Age and Sex
-250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
Male
Female
Source: ROPD based on Census 2000 and Minnesota State Demographic Center 2007 Projections available at http://www.demography.state.mn.us/resource.html?Id=19167
Minnesota Population 2030
-250,000 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
0 to 4
10 to 14
20 to 24
30 to 34
40 to 44
50 to 54
60 to 64
70 to 74
80 to 84Male
Female
Source: ROPD based on Census 2000 and Minnesota State Demographic Center 2007 Projections available at http://www.demography.state.mn.us/resource.html?Id=19167
Population Change by Age2000 - 2030
Age
Group
2000
population
2030
population Change
%
Change
under 55 3,920,344 4,304,400 384,056 10%
55+ 999,135 1,964,000 964,865 97%
65+ 594,266 1,290,800 696,534 117%
75+ 298,441 602,100 303,659 102%
85+ 85,601 163,300 77,699 91%Source: ROPD based on Census 2000 and Minnesota State Demographic Center 2007 Projections available at http://www.demography.state.mn.us/resource.html?Id=19167
Minnesota 2000-2030 Change by Age
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,0000
to
4
5 t
o 9
10
to
14
15
to
19
20
to
24
25
to
29
30
to
34
35
to
39
40
to
44
45
to
49
50
to
54
55
to
59
60
to
64
65
to
69
70
to
74
75
to
79
80
to
84
85
+
Source: ROPD based on Census 2000 and Minnesota State Demographic Center 2007 Projections available at http://www.demography.state.mn.us/resource.html?Id=19167
Implications of Aging Boom
• The population over 65 years of age will increase by 117% from 2000 to 2030.
• In 2000, ~ 20% of the 65+ population had at least one disability. If this proportion stays constant, the population over 65 with a disability will increase from 119,000 to 260,000.
• The workforce will change dramatically as boomers retire.
Where will the workers come from?
• In-migration
• Commuting (minor at the state level)
• Transfer to service sector from other sectors, as with farming in the early 20th
century
• Not females – labor force participation increased from ~50% in 1970 to ~85% now.
Sources of Population Change
Components of Change 2000-2009 Minnesota
Births 654,294
Deaths 348,464
Natural Increase 305,830
International net migration 106,388
Domestic net migration -43,962
Total Net Migration 62,426
Counties with more deaths than births 25
Counties with more out- than in- migration 52
Counties with positive domestic net migration 34
Counties with positive international net migration 79
Source: Census Estimates, 2009; http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/CO-EST2009-04.html
Citizenship and Year of Entry for Foreign Born (Census ACS, 2005-9)
Source: Census American Community Survey 2005-9 Table B05005; http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/aff_transition.html
Foreign Born
Naturalized U.S. citizen
Not a U.S. citizen
% Citizens
Total 339,119 144,347 194,772 43%
Entered 2000 or later 124,771 16,804 107,967 13%
Entered 1990 to 1999 110,689 49,815 60,874 45%
Entered 1980 to 1989 55,674 38,330 17,344 69%
Entered before 1980 47,985 39,398 8,587 82%
Implications
• Most in-migrants are persons of color
and/or foreign-born; many foreign-born
immigrants will need training and language
skills.
• The number and proportion of low income
children, concentrated in single-parent
households, is rising. We will need to
improve on how we educate this group.
• Whatever compounding factors influence
minority low income students must be
addressed and remedied.
