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Changing Nature of Rural Landscapes and Communities
John WilliamsNSW Commissioner for Natural Resources
The challenge for Australian agriculture…
• The era of cheap energy for Agriculture is over.....
• Fuels, Fertilizer, Pesticides, increasingly expensive
• The impact of Emission Trading Scheme is about to begin.....
• Increase costs of most inputs to agriculture
• The era of cheap food and fibre may be over....
• global food demand increasing-Food security.
BIODIVERSITY
LAND
AIR
WATER
Damage to Land, Water & Biodiversity
soil nutrient depletionsoil nutrient depletion
soil acidificationsoil acidification
soil structural declinesoil structural decline
soil biological declinesoil biological decline
dryland and irrigation salinizationdryland and irrigation salinization
wind and water erosionwind and water erosion
contamination with residues of contamination with residues of agricultural chemicalsagricultural chemicals
Damage to Land, Water & Biodiversity
loss of habitat and biodiversityloss of habitat and biodiversity
river processes and environmental flowsriver processes and environmental flows
nutrient, salts and pollutants to wetlands, nutrient, salts and pollutants to wetlands, rivers and water bodiesrivers and water bodies
contamination of groundwater with nutrients, contamination of groundwater with nutrients, salt and pollutantssalt and pollutants
riparian, remnant vegetation damage and rural riparian, remnant vegetation damage and rural tree declinetree decline
decline in native pastures and environmental decline in native pastures and environmental value of rangelandsvalue of rangelands
The challenge for Australian society
• To manage water, land, biodiversity which
underpin our life support systems by•Providing our ecosystems services and our ecological infrastructure
•Under Climate Change and Shift
Change in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years
Based on ice core analysis, and since 1958 on direct measurements
Inset: Monthly average concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
Source: Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology
Source: Rahmstorf et al (2007). Science 316:709.
Climate observations compared to projections
Australia is warming
Climate change is occurring and is due to human activities
atmospheric CO2
ocean
land
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
6.3
1.6
3.2
2.22.5
2000-2005
Global Carbon Budget (1850-2005)
IPCC 2001; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS, in review; IPCC WGI 2007, unpublished comparison
CO
2 flu
x (P
g C
y-1)
Sink
Sour
ce
Time (y)
7.2
1.5
4.2
2.32.3
1980-1989
5.4
1.4
3.3
1.81.7
1990-1999
Summary of Projected Climate Changes
• Temperature to increase 3oC by 2050 and 5oC by 2070 over land areas
• Lower increases in temperature in maritime environments
• Precipitation increases in high latitudes (temperate) but a drying in mid-latitudes (sub-tropics) over Asia
• Equatorial tropical zone – uncertain but little mean change expected
• No increase in cyclone frequency but intensity could increase by 10-20%
• Accelerated melting of glaciers – 65% of China’s glaciers will not exist by 2050 with current and projected warming trends
• Sea level rise modest in IPCC projections (c. 50cm) but estimates don’t include significant ice melt over land
Suppiah et al (in prep)
Low CO2 emission scenario
Temperature change (°C)
High CO2 emission scenario
15-model average changes in temperature by 2030, relative
to 1990
April 18, 2023 16TYPE IN PRESENTATION NAME
Annual Flows In Lachlan River at Forbes
Rainfall trend (1910 to 2005)
Source: Richard Beecham, NSW Department of Natural Resources
Source: Barry Hanstrum, Bureau of Meteorology