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Chantell IlburyIndependent Scenario Strategist
Forging the Social Pact
CONSTRUCTING THE FUTURE
ONE WORLD
DIVIDED WORLD
V (2014)
U (2020)
New Balls PleaseHard Times
Ultraviolet UVForked Lightning
Global Scenarios
©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com
• A good quality of education
• A strong work ethic and spirit of entrepreneurship
• A high rate of savings ( and early access to capital for businesses that require it )
• Adequate infrastructure to support a high-growth economy
• Being an export-orientated global player that supplies goods and/or services to foreign markets that they can’t get elsewhere
• A dual-logic economy ( big and small business work in constructive partnership )
• Social harmony ( citizens feel they are part of one team with a common vision )
• Competitive personal and company tax rates
• An attractive environment for foreign direct investment
• Efficient government
Characteristics of a winning nation
©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com
Relegation Zone
COMPETITIVENESS +VE
COMPETITIVENESS -VE
INTERNAL HARMONY
INTERNAL CONFLICT
Premier League
(top 57 countries)
X
Second Division
Failed State
“Arab Spring”
Inclusive leadership
Pockets of excellence
Balanced economy
South African Scenarios
©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com
Bluff Royal Flush
Fold Raise
Good quality education system
Poor quality education system
Equal societyUnequal society
Private Schools
A Few Public
Schools
• Opportunities for all
• Barriers to access opportunities
Majority of Public Schools
1. Populations are ageing• US - issues around state funding of medical care and
social security• China - One-child policy and demographic cliff• Africa, South America and Indonesia still young and
growing populations• Increasing longevity goes hand in hand with rising
income levels2. More economies will return to a steady
state• Japan has led the way, with Europe about to follow suit• Facing a relatively flat economic universe driven by
static populations in more advanced economies3. We have moved from the Age of
Knowledge to the Age of Intelligence• Internet has changed access to knowledge –
differentiator is way we use it and create new knowledge
• Education about connecting dots – intelligence and cognitive skills
• Companies need intelligent strategy to survive
21st Century Megatrends
©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com
4. It’s about defending, not growing wealth• Prices and inflation high, interest rates low, retirement
age up• More difficult to make money with money• In a steady-state universe, need to be a value-driven
investor intent on stocks offering a satisfactory dividend yield and modest price-earnings ratio
5. Education out of sync with job market and changing nature of work• Worldwide, youth unemployment is an issue• Schools educating for outdated job market• Expect social unrest among young citizens
6. A second, more dangerous scramble for resources• ‘Easy’ days are over – need to access more remote
deposits• Growing scarcity of water and food• Marine mining and offshore drilling focus areas for
conflict7. Wars will continue with more
sophisticated weapons• Technology changes conventional weapons to WMDs• Ability to kill forever improving
21st Century Megatrends
©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com
8. Like black swans, natural disasters will come out of the blue• Natural disasters + increasing population = high death
tolls • Lagging shift in policies around super-emitters• Short-term government policies clash with long-term
climate change realities9. Dictatorial regimes will become rarer, but
not necessarily replaced by democracy• Arab spring has resulted in change…but to what?• Social media a force of change
10. Work/life balance is now even more elusive• Technological connectivity means working 24/7• Work intruding into every aspect of life, with little
time for switch off• The strain is showing
21st Century Megatrends
©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com
What partnerships are needed to adapt the education system to meet the realities of the job market and the changing nature of work?
The critical component to forging a social pact
1
2
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5
6
7
8 9
10Meaning of
Winning
Context
Scope
PlayersRules of the Game
Key Uncertainties
Scenarios
S.W.O.T
Options Decisions
Playing the Game
Defining the Game
The Conversation Model
©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com