1

Chapter 08

Transaction Exposure

2

Transaction Exposure

• The three major foreign exchange exposures• Foreign exchange transaction exposure• Pros and cons of hedging foreign exchange

transaction exposure• Alternatives of managing significant

transaction exposure• Practices and concerns of foreign exchange

risk management

3

Foreign Exchange Exposure• Types of foreign exchange exposure

– Transaction Exposure – measures changes in the value of outstanding financial obligations due to exchange rate changes

– Operating Exposure – also called economic exposure, measures the change in the present value of the firm resulting from any change in expected future operating cash flows caused by an unexpected change in exchange rates

– Translation Exposure – also called accounting exposure, is the changes in owner’s equity because of the need to “translate” financial statements of foreign subsidiaries into a single reporting currency for consolidated financial statements

– Tax Exposure – as a general rule only realized foreign losses are deductible for purposes of calculating income taxes

4

Why Hedge - the Pros & Cons• Opponents of hedging give the following reasons:

– Shareholders are more capable of diversifying risk than the management of a firm

– Currency risk management does not increase the expected cash flows of a firm

– Management often conducts hedging activities that benefit management at the expense of shareholders

– Managers cannot outguess the market– Management’s motivation to reduce variability is sometimes

driven by accounting reasons– Efficient market theorists believe that investors can see through

the “accounting veil” and therefore have already factored the foreign exchange effect into a firm’s market valuation

5

Why Hedge - the Pros & Cons• Proponents of hedging give the following reasons:

– Reduction in the risk of future cash flows improves the planning capability of the firm

– Reduction of risk in future cash flows reduces the likelihood that the firm’s cash flows will fall below a necessary minimum – avoiding bankruptcy costs

– Management has a comparative advantage over the individual investor in knowing the actual currency risk of the firm

– Markets are usually in disequilibirum because of structural and institutional imperfections

– Reduction in variability of income reduces a firm’s overall tax burden

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Why Hedge - the Pros & Cons

Expected Value, E(V) Net Cash Flow (NCF)NCF

Hedging reduces the variability of expected cash flows about the mean of the distribution.This reduction of distribution variance is a reduction of risk, but who benefits from it.

Unhedged

Hedged

7

Measurement of Transaction Exposure

• Transaction exposure measures gains or losses that arise from the settlement of existing financial obligations, namely– Purchasing or selling on credit goods or services when

prices are stated in foreign currencies– Borrowing or lending funds when repayment is to be

made in a foreign currency– Being a party to an unperformed forward contract and – Otherwise acquiring assets or incurring liabilities

denominated in foreign currencies

8

Purchasing or Selling on Open Account

• Suppose Dragon Corporation sells merchandise on open account to a Belgian buyer for €1,800,000 payable in 60 days

• Further assume that the current spot rate is $0.9000/€ and Dragon expects to exchange the euros for €1,800,000 x $0.9000/€ = $1,620,000 when payment is received (assuming no change in exchange rate)– Dragon will receive something other than $1,620,000 expected– If the euro weakens to $0.8500/€, then Dragon will receive

$1,530,000– If the euro strengthens to $0.9600/€, then Dragon will receive

$1,728,000

9

Purchasing or Selling on Open Account

• Dragon might have avoided transaction exposure by invoicing the Belgian buyer in US dollars, but this might have caused Dragon not being able to book the sale

• Even if the Belgian buyer agrees to pay in dollars, however, Dragon has not eliminated transaction exposure, instead it has transferred it to the Belgian buyer whose dollar account payable has an unknown euro value in 60 days

10

Purchasing or Selling on Open Account

Quotation ExposureTime between quoting a price and reaching a contractual sale

Backlog ExposureTime it takes to fill the order after contract is signed

Billing ExposureTime it takes to get paid in cash after A/R is issued

Seller quotes a price to buyer

t1

Buyer places firm order with seller at offered price

t2

Seller ships product and bills buyer

t3

Buyer settles A/R with cash in amount of currency quoted at t1

t4

Life Span of a Transaction Exposure

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Borrowing and Lending

• A second example of transaction exposure arises when funds are loaned or borrowed

• Example: PepsiCo’s largest bottler outside the US is located in Mexico, Grupo Embotellador de Mexico (Gemex)– On 12/94, Gemex had US dollar denominated debt of

$264 million– The Mexican peso (Ps) was pegged at Ps3.45/$– On 12/22/94, the government allowed the peso to float

due to internal pressures and it sank to Ps4.65/$

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Borrowing and Lending

• Gemex’s peso obligation now looked like this– Dollar debt mid-December, 1994:• $264,000,000 × Ps3.45/$ = Ps910,800,000

– Dollar debt in mid-January, 1995:• $264,000,000 × Ps5.50/$ = Ps1,452,000,000

– Dollar debt increase measured in Ps – Ps541,200,000

• Gemex’s dollar obligation increased by 59% due to transaction exposure

13

Hedging Alternatives• Transaction exposure can be managed by contractual,

operating, or financial hedges• Contractual hedges: forward, money market, futures, and

options• Operating and financial hedges use risk-sharing agreements,

leads and lags in payment terms, swaps, and other strategies• A natural hedge refers to an offsetting operating cash flow• A financial hedge refers to either an offsetting debt

obligation or some type of financial derivative such as a swap

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Dayton’s Transaction Exposure• CFO of Dayton, has just concluded a sale to Regency, a British firm, for

£1,000,000• The sale is made in March for settlement due in June (3 months)

– Assumptions• Spot rate is $1.7640/£• 3-month forward rate is $1.7540/£ (a 2.27% discount)• Dayton’s cost of capital is 12.0%• UK 3 month borrowing rate is 10.0% p.a.• UK 3 month investing rate is 8.0% p.a.• US 3 month borrowing rate is 8.0% p.a.• US 3 month investing rate is 6.0% p.a.• June put option in OTC market for £1,000,000; strike price $1.7500/£; 1.5% premium• June call option in OTC market for £1,000,000; strike price $1.7500/£; 1.5% premium• Dayton’s foreign exchange advisory service forecasts future spot rate in 3 months to be

$1.7600/£

• The budget rate (lowest acceptable amount) is based on an exchange rate of $1.7000/£

15

Dayton’s Transaction Exposure

• Dayton faces four possibilities:– Remain unhedged– Hedge in the forward market– Hedge in the money market– Hedge in the options market

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Dayton’s Transaction Exposure

• Unhedged position– If the future spot rate is $1.7600/£, then Dayton

will receive £1,000,000 x $1.7600/£ = $1,760,000 in 3 months

– However, if the future spot rate is $1.6500/£, Dayton will receive only $1,650,000 well below the budget rate

17

Dayton’s Transaction Exposure• Forward Market hedge

– A forward hedge involves a forward contract– The forward contract is entered at the time the A/R is created, in this case in

March– When this sale is booked, it is recorded at the spot rate. – In this case the A/R is recorded at a spot rate of $1.7640/£, thus $1,764,000 is

recorded as a sale for Dayton– If the firm wants to cover this exposure with a forward contract, then the firm

will sell £1,000,000 forward today at the $1.7540/£– In 3 months, Dayton will received £1,000,000 and exchange those pounds at

$1.7540/£ receiving $1,754,000– This sum is $6,000 less than the uncertain $1,760,000 expected from the

unhedged position– This would be recorded in Dayton’s books as a foreign exchange loss of $10,000

($1,764,000 as booked, $1,754,000 as settled)

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Dayton’s Transaction Exposure• Money Market hedge

– To hedge in the money market, Dayton will borrow pounds in London, convert the pounds to dollars and repay the pound loan with the proceeds from the sale• To calculate how much to borrow, Dayton needs to discount the PV of

the £1,000,000 to today• £1,000,000/1.025 = £975,610• Dayton should borrow £975,610 today and in 3 months repay this

amount plus £24,390 in interest (£1,000,000) from the proceeds of the sale

• Dayton would exchange the £975,610 at the spot rate of $1.7640/£ and receive $1,720,976 at once (today)

• This hedge creates a pound denominated liability that is offset with a pound denominated asset thus creating a balance sheet hedge

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Dayton’s Transaction Exposure• In order to compare the forward hedge with the money market

hedge, we must analyze the use of the loan proceeds– Remember that the loan proceeds may be used today, but the funds

for the forward contract may not– Because the funds are relatively certain, comparison is possible in

order to make a decision (the comparison is made on future values)– Three logical choices exist for an assumed investment rate for the

next 3 months• First, if Dayton is cash rich the loan proceeds might be invested at the US

rate of 6.0% p.a.• Second, the loan proceeds can be substituted for an equal dollar loan that

Dayton would have otherwise taken for working capital needs at a rate of 8.0% p.a.

• Third, the loan proceeds can be invested in the firm itself in which case the cost of capital is 12.0% p.a.

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Dayton’s Transaction Exposure• Because the proceeds in 3 months from the forward hedge will be

$1,754,000, the money market hedge is superior to the forward hedge if the proceeds are used to replace a dollar loan (8%) or conduct general business operations (12%)

• The forward hedge would be preferable if the loan proceeds are invested at (6%)

• We will assume the cost of capital as the reinvestment rate

Received Today Invested In Rate Future Value in 3 Months

$1,720,976 Treasury Bill 6% p.a. or 1.5%/quarter

$1,746,791

$1,720,976 Debt Cost 8% p.a. or 2.0%/quarter

$1,755,396

$1,720,976 Cost of Capital 12% p.a. or 3.0%/quarter

$1,772,605

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Dayton’s Transaction Exposure• A breakeven investment rate can be calculated between forward and money

market hedge

• To convert this 3 month rate to an annual rate,

• In other words, if Dayton can invest the loan proceeds at a rate equal to or greater than 7.68% p.a. then the money market hedge will be superior to the forward hedge

quarterper 0.0192r$1,754,000 r)(1 x $1,720,976

proceeds) (forward rate)(1 x proceeds)(Loan

7.68% 100 x 90360

x 0192.0 =

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Dayton’s Transaction Exposure

1.68 1.70 1.74 1.761.72 1.821.801.78 1.861.84

Value in US dollars ofDayton’s £1,000,000 A/R

1.68

Ending spot exchange rate (US$/£)

1.70

1.72

1.74

1.76

1.78

1.80

1.82

1.84

Money market hedgeyields $1,772,605

Forward rateis $1.7540/£

Uncovered yieldswhatever the endingspot rate is in 90 days

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Dayton’s Transaction Exposure

• Option market hedge– Dayton could also cover the £1,000,000 exposure

by purchasing a put option. This provides the upside potential for appreciation of the pound while limiting the downside risk• Given the quote earlier, a 3-month put option can be

purchased with a strike price of $1.75/£ and a premium of 1.5%• The cost of this option would be

4602676401015.00000001option ofcost rate) x(spot (premium) x option) of (Size

, $/£ .x$ x ,,£

24

Dayton’s Transaction Exposure• Because we are using future value to compare the various hedging

alternatives, we need future value of the option cost in 3 months• Using a cost of capital of 12% p.a. or 3.0% per quarter, the premium cost of

the option as of June would be– $26,460 × 1.03 = $27,254 or $27,254 / £1,000,000 = $0.0273/£

• Since the upside potential is unlimited, Dayton would not exercise its option at any rate above $1.7500/£ and would convert pounds to dollars at the spot market

• If the spot rate is $1.7600/£, Dayton would exchange pounds on the spot market to receive £1,000,000 × $1.7600/£ = $1,760,000 less the premium of the option ($27,254) netting $1,732,746

• If the pound depreciates below $1.7500/£, Dayton would exercise the put option and exchange £1,000,000 at $1.7500/£ receiving $1,750,000 less the premium of the option netting $1,722,746

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Dayton’s Transaction Exposure• As with the forward and money market hedges, a

breakeven price on the option can be calculated– The upper bound of the range is determined by comparison of

the forward rate• The pound must appreciate above $1.7540/£ forward rate plus the cost

of the option, $0.0273/£, to $1.7813/£– The lower bound of the range is determined by comparison to

the strike price• If the pound depreciates below $1.7500/£, the net proceeds would be

$1.7500/£ less the cost of $0.0273/£ or $1.7227/£• Note that the following graph shows the net proceeds of the option

contract under varying exchange rates. Net proceeds are not same of a put option payoff diagram because we have exposure to the underlying asset (£)

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Dayton’s Transaction Exposure

Put Option Strike Price ATM Option $1.75/£Option cost (future cost) $1,750,000Proceeds if exercised $1,722,746Minimum net proceeds Cost of Capital

Maximum net proceeds Unlimited

Breakeven spot rate (upside) $1.7813/£

Breakeven spot rate (downside) $1.7227/£

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Net Proceeds of Alternatives

• Cell E5 Entry is =IF(A5<$C$2,($C$2-$C$3)*$C$1,(A5-$C$3)*$C$1)

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101112131415161718192021222324252627

A B C D EExposure £1,000,000Put Exercise 1.75Put Premium 0.0273 (FV)

Spot Rate Unhedged MM Forward Put Option1.68 $1,680,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,722,7461.69 $1,690,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,722,7461.70 $1,700,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,722,7461.71 $1,710,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,722,7461.72 $1,720,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,722,7461.73 $1,730,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,722,7461.74 $1,740,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,722,7461.75 $1,750,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,722,7461.76 $1,760,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,732,7461.77 $1,770,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,742,7461.78 $1,780,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,752,7461.79 $1,790,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,762,7461.80 $1,800,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,772,7461.81 $1,810,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,782,7461.82 $1,820,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,792,7461.83 $1,830,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,802,7461.84 $1,840,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,812,7461.85 $1,850,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,822,7461.86 $1,860,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,832,7461.87 $1,870,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,842,7461.88 $1,880,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,852,7461.89 $1,890,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,862,7461.90 $1,900,000 $1,772,605 $1,754,000 $1,872,746

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Net Proceeds of AlternativesHedging Alternatives

$1,660,000

$1,680,000

$1,700,000

$1,720,000

$1,740,000

$1,760,000

$1,780,000

$1,800,000

$1,820,000

$1,840,000

$1,860,000

$1,880,000

$1,900,000

$1,920,000

1.68 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.72 1.73 1.74 1.75 1.76 1.77 1.78 1.79 1.80 1.81 1.82 1.83 1.84 1.85 1.86 1.87 1.88 1.89 1.90

Exchange Rate ($/£)

Net

Pro

ceed

s

Unhedged MM Forward Put Option

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Strategy Choice and Outcome• Dayton, like all firms, must decide on a strategy to

undertake before the exchange rate changes but how a choice can be made among the strategies?

• Two criteria can be utilized:– Risk tolerance - of the firm,as expressed in its stated policies and– Viewpoint – managers’ view on the expected direction and

distance of the exchange rate• Dayton now needs to compare the alternatives and their

outcomes in order to choose a strategy• There were four alternatives available to manage this

account receivable

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Strategy Choice and Outcome

Hedging Strategy Outcome/PayoutRemain uncovered UnknownForward contract hedge @ $1.754/£ $1,754,000Money market hedge @ 8% p.a. $1,755,396

Money market hedge @ 12% p.a. $1,772,605

Put option hedge @ strike $1.75/£

Minimum if exercised $1,722,746

Maximum if not exercised Unlimited

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Managing an Account Payable

• The choices are the same for managing a payable– Assume that the £1,000,000 was an account

payable in 90 days• Remain unhedged – Dayton could wait the 90

days and at that time exchange dollars for pounds to pay the obligation– If the spot rate is $1.76/£ then Dayton would pay

$1,760,000 but this amount is not certain

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Managing an Account Payable

• Use a forward market hedge – Dayton could purchase a forward contract locking in the $1.7540/£ rate ensuring that their obligation will not be more than $1,754,000

• Use a money market hedge – this hedge is distinctly different for a payable than a receivable– Here Dayton would exchange US dollars at the spot rate

and invest them for 90 days in pounds– The pound obligation for Dayton is now offset by a

pound asset for Dayton with matching maturity

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Managing an Account Payable

• Using a money market hedge – To ensure that exactly £1,000,000 will be received

in 3 months, discount the principal by 8% p.a.

– This £980,392.16 would require $1,729,411.77 at the current spot rate

6£980,392.1=

36090

x 0.08+1

£1,000,000

.77$1,729,411 $1.7640/£ x 6£980,392.1 =

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Managing an Account Payable

• Using a money market hedge – Finally, carry the cost forward 90 days using the

cost of capital in order to compare the payout

– This is higher than the forward hedge of $1,754,000 thus unattractive

12.294,781,1$36090 x12.01 x 77.411,729,1$

quarterper 0.0142r$1,754,000 r)(1 x $1,729,412

proceeds) (forward rate)(1 x need)t (investmen

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Managing an Account Payable

• Using an option hedge – instead of purchasing a put as with a receivable, you want to purchase a call option on the payable– The total cost of an ATM call option with strike price of

$1.7500/£ and a premium of 1.5%:

– Carried forward 90 days the premium amount is $26,460 × 1.03 = $27,254 or $27,254 / £1,000,000 = $0.0273/£

4602676401015.00000001option ofcost rate) x(spot (premium) x option) of (Size

, $/£ .x$ x ,,£

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Managing an Account Payable• Using a call option hedge

– If the spot rate is less than $1.7500/£ then the option would be allowed to expire and the £1,000,000 would be purchased on the spot market

– If the spot rate rises above $1.7500/£ then the option would be exercised and Dayton would exchange the £1,000,000 at $1.75/£ less the option premium for the payable

• Exercise call option (£1,000,000 $1.75/£) = $1,750,000• Add call option premium of $27,254 (carried forward 90

days)• Total maximum expense of call option hedge is

$1,777,254

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Net Cost of Alternatives

• Cell E5 Entry is =IF(A5>$C$2,($C$2+$C$3)*$C$1,(A5+$C$3)*$C$1)

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101112131415161718192021222324252627

A B C D EExposure £1,000,000Call Exercise 1.75Call Premium 0.0273 (FV)

Spot Rate Unhedged MM Forward Call Option1.68 $1,680,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,707,2541.69 $1,690,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,717,2541.70 $1,700,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,727,2541.71 $1,710,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,737,2541.72 $1,720,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,747,2541.73 $1,730,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,757,2541.74 $1,740,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,767,2541.75 $1,750,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.76 $1,760,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.77 $1,770,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.78 $1,780,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.79 $1,790,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.80 $1,800,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.81 $1,810,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.82 $1,820,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.83 $1,830,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.84 $1,840,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.85 $1,850,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.86 $1,860,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.87 $1,870,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.88 $1,880,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.89 $1,890,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,2541.90 $1,900,000 $1,781,294 $1,754,000 $1,777,254

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Net Cost of AlternativesHedging Alternatives

$1,660,000

$1,680,000

$1,700,000

$1,720,000

$1,740,000

$1,760,000

$1,780,000

$1,800,000

$1,820,000

$1,840,000

$1,860,000

$1,880,000

$1,900,000

$1,920,000

1.68 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.72 1.73 1.74 1.75 1.76 1.77 1.78 1.79 1.80 1.81 1.82 1.83 1.84 1.85 1.86 1.87 1.88 1.89 1.90

Exchange Rate ($/£)

Net

Cos

ts

Unhedged MM Forward Call Option

39

Risk Management in Practice• Which Goals?

– The treasury function of most firms is usual considered a cost center; it is not expected to add to the bottom line

– However, in practice some firms’ treasuries have become aggressive in currency management and act as profit centers

• Which Exposures?– Transaction exposures exist before they are actually booked yet some firms do

not hedge this backlog exposure– However, some firms are selectively hedging these backlog exposures and

anticipated exposures• Which Contractual Hedges?

– Transaction exposure management programs are generally divided along an “option-line;” those which use options and those that do not

– Also the amount of risk covered may vary. Tare are proportional hedging policies that state which proportion and type of exposure is to be hedged by the treasury