Chapter 10 Elections and Campaigns - Augusta County …€¦ · · 2013-11-19• Nominations...

Chapter 10

Elections and

Campaigns

Presidential Elections: Step-by-Step

Copyright © 2011 Cengage

1. “Get mentioned” – Get the press to pay attention to you as early as possible.

2. Self-announcement – Usually one-year out.

3. Primaries & caucuses – January – June • New Hampshire & Iowa are first • “Super Tuesday” – 20+ state primaries • Nominations usually wrapped up by April

FRONTLOADING: The tendency for earlier primaries to be more important than later ones.

Presidential Elections: Step-by-Step

4. Announcement of VP running mates – now immediately before conventions.

5. National party conventions – August 6. The campaign – Sept – Nov

• One-on-one campaigning • Televised debates

7. Election Day – Tues after first Mon in November

8. Electoral College vote – routine event about

one month after Election Day.

Presidential Campaigns Past • Campaigns for the nomination were nearly nonexistent. • Nineteenth century: congressional members from party caucus picked candidate • After nominating conventions replaced caucuses, local party leaders or bosses selected candidate. • Sum: Parties in control of nomination process.

Modern Presidential Campaigns

Now individual candidates must orchestrate a highly structured campaign • Run by large staff • Media consultants create advertisements and buy air time from media outlets.


Now individual candidates must orchestrate a highly structured campaign • Polling firms survey voters on their attitudes toward issues and candidates and run focus groups. • Political technology firms supply services such as web site design, online advertising, online fund-raising, and voter-targeting. • Sum: Campaigns are candidate-focused, not party focused.


Source: Federal Election Commission, 2008 election summary reports, May 2009.


To pay for this help, candidates must raise and spend large sums of money.


Source: Adapted from Federal Election Commission, summary reports, January 2009 and May 2009. Dollar figures

rounded. Inflation adjustment keyed to consumer price index 1976–2008, 3.74 (i.e., assumes that what cost $1.00 in

1976 cost $3.74 in 2008).

Figure 10.1 Presidential Campaigns,

Spending on Media, 2008


Source: Federal Election Commission, summary reports, May 2009. Figures rounded.


• Amount spent by presidential candidates has increased dramatically since 1976. • Large amount of money spent on media advertising • Advertisements appeal largely to emotions, such as fear, patriotism, or community pride.


News broadcasts (“visuals”) a) Cost little

b) May have greater credibility with voters c) Rely on having television camera crew around d) May actually be less informative than spots and therefore make less of an impression

Media Visuals: Things to Avoid

John Kerry windsurfing

Michael Dukakis riding in tank


Risk of slips of the tongue on visuals and debates a) Forces candidates to rely on stock

speeches—campaign themes and proven applause-getting lines

b) Sell yourself as much as or more than ideas

“Welcome to America, Macaca.”

Are Campaigns Better or Worse?

1. Candidates use polling data to determine voter opinions, positions.

2. Campaigns use data-mining software to “micro-target” specific groups of voters. (Example: HS educated, white, 20-something working mothers)

3. Parties emphasize get-out-the-vote activities

4. Candidates rely heavily on advice of political consultants (James Carville, Karl Rove)

5. “Campaigning” has become synonymous with “fund-raising”

Congressional Campaigns


FUNDAMENTALS

• Constitution -- each state has two Senators who represent entire state. • Number of Representatives set by Congress, determined by population.

House members serve a “single-member district” of state. Districts redrawn every ten years after census. State legislatures draw district maps.


Incumbent Advantage

Source: Center for Responsive Politics (www. opensecrets.org)


Incumbent Advantage


House Type of Candidate

Total Raised Number of Cands

Avg Raised

Incumbent $590,082,015 435 $1,356,510

Challenger $218,821,208 653 $335,101

Incumbent Advantage:

2008


Senate

Type of Candidate

Total Raised Number of Cands

Avg Raised

Incumbent $314,684,064 36 $8,741,224

Challenger $119,823,203 104 $1,152,146


2008



Conclusion

Most congressional election races are not very competitive.

Results: Virginia’s 6th District 2010

Bob Goodlatte (R) 77% Jeff Vanke (I) 14% Stuart Bain (L) 9%



Winning the congressional primary

1. Must gather voter signatures to appear on the ballot for a primary election.

2.Win party nomination by winning the primary election— parties have limited influence over these outcomes. 3. Run in the general election—incumbents almost always

win: “sophomore surge” due to use of office to run a strong personal campaign.

4. Personalized campaigns offer members independence from party in Congress.



Staying in office

1. How members get elected has two consequences: a) Legislators are closely tied to local concerns

b) Party leaders have little influence in

Congress, because they cannot influence electoral outcomes.



Staying in office

2. Affects how policy is made: members gear their offices to help individual constituents while securing committee assignments that will produce benefits for their districts.

3. Members must decide how much to be:

delegates (do what district wants) versus... trustees (use their independent judgment).



VOCABULARY

• Reapportionment – redistributing the 435 House seats among the states based on population shifts. • Redistricting – redrawing congressional districts following a census.


Reapportionment

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b9/2010_census_reapportionment.jpg



Rep. Bob Goodlatte

VA-6

Congressional Campaigns:


• Problem: District boundaries can affect election outcomes • State legislatures draw district boundaries every ten years following the national census. (redistricting) • Redistricting is a political process. Partisan influences affect how districts are drawn.



• Two enduring problems have characterized congressional electoral politics. a) Malapportionment: districts have very

different populations, so the votes in a less-populated district “weigh more” than do those in a more-populated district.

b) Gerrymandering: boundaries are drawn to favor one party, resulting in odd-shaped districts.


Gerrymandering


The term “gerrymandering” dates to 1812, when Governor Elbridge Gerry of Massachusetts drew a district to the advantage of the Jeffersonian Democrats. The district resembled a salamander.

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/The_Gerry-Mander_Edit.png


Gerrymandering



Gerrymandering


Redistricting Cases


Baker v. Carr (1962) • Some Tennessee citizens complained that

the 1901 state apportionment laws were being ignored.

• The state legislature was ignoring significant economic changes and population shifts.

• Question: Do the federal courts have jurisdiction over redistricting in the states?

IN A NUTSHELL Yes. Federal courts have authority over redistricting decisions made by state legislatures.

Redistricting Cases


Wesberry v. Sanders (1964) • Georgia’s 5th Congressional District had a

population 2-3 times larger than other districts in the state.

• James Wesberry claimed that this diluted his right to vote compared to other state residents.

• Issue: Did Georgia’s congressional district deprive citizens of their full right to vote?

IN A NUTSHELL States must make every effort to ensure that a person’s vote in one district is not worth more than a person’s vote in another district. (“One-man, one-vote” rule.)

Redistricting Cases


Shaw v. Reno (1993)

North Carolina’s 12th Congressional District in 1990.

Redistricting Cases


Shaw v. Reno (1993) • Under pressure from the U.S. Dept of Justice, the NC-

12 district had been drawn to ensure that a second NC congressional seat would go to a black representative.

• Plaintiffs filed suit charging the odd-shaped district resulted in reverse discrimination.

• The shape was "so bizarre on its face that it is unexplainable on grounds other than race.” (Sandra Day O’Connor)

• Issue: Can states create majority/minority districts based on race?

IN A NUTSHELL States can draw district lines based on race, but they must meet strict standards set by the U.S. Justice Dept. under the Voting Rights Act.

Redistricting Rules:

Summary

• Federal courts have the authority to review redistricting decisions made by states.

• Congressional districts must have approximately equal population.

• District lines must be contiguous or connected.

• Districts must be compact.

• Minority voting strength cannot be diluted.

• District lines cannot be drawn solely based on race, but can take race into account.

What Decides the Election?

1.Party 2.Issues 3.The Campaign 4.Winning Coalition


What Decides the

Election?

POLITICAL PARTY • Not so simple as it seems: most people identify as Democrats, but the Democrats lost six of nine presidential contests between 1968 and 2000. • Democrats are less loyal to their party than are Republicans. • Republicans tend to do better among independents. Since 1960, Republicans have won the independent vote seven times; the Democrats won it five times. • Republicans have higher turnout.


ISSUES • Voters know what issues affect them personally. • Voters who switch parties usually do so out of a perceived self-interest. (example: the economy) • They have strong principles about certain issues (example, abortion)


ISSUES: TWO TYPES OF VOTERS

• PROSPECTIVE VOTERS: Forward looking

o “News junkies.” Spend a lot of time learning about issues. o Choose candidates based on their positions on the issues. o Most common among activists and special interest groups o Few voters are prospective


ISSUES: TWO TYPES OF VOTERS

• RETROSPECTIVE VOTERS: Backward looking

o How have things been recently, especially economically? o Does not require much information o Voters judge the incumbent’s performance and vote accordingly. o Usually helps incumbent, unless economy has gotten worse.

“Elections are decided by retrospective voters.”


THE CAMPAIGN

Campaigns do make a difference.

• They reawaken voters’ partisan loyalties. • They let voters see how candidates handle and apply pressure. • They let voters judge the character and core values of the candidates.


THE CAMPAIGN

Campaigns tend to emphasize themes over details. • Not new - true throughout American history • What is new - importance of primary elections. (Minority of voters can determine the winner.) • Emphasis on themes gives more influence to single-issue groups with loyal members who vote as a bloc.

What Decides the Election? THEMES

Romney, 2012

Howard Dean (D), 2004

Obama, 2008 Bush, 2000


FINDING THE WINNING COALITION

• Coalition (def): An alliance of factions. • To win, candidates must cobble together groups of voters. • They must “hold their base” while attracting “swing voters.” • How loyal are groups to the candidate or party? • How important are groups to the candidate or party?


The ‘08 Obama Coalition

• Blacks (95%) • Hispanics (67%) • Women (56%) • Young people (66%) • Suburban independents


What Decides the Election? FINDING THE WINNING COALITION

Democratic coalition

• Democratic voters not as loyal as Reps. • African Americans most loyal • Jews almost as loyal as African Americans • Hispanics loyal, though somewhat mixed because of underlying ethnic differences

oCubans tend to vote Republican oMexicans and Puerto Ricans strongly Democratic oTurnout among Hispanic voters still quite low

• Catholics, southerners, unionists departing the coalition

What Decides the Election? FINDING THE WINNING COALITION

Republican coalition

• Party of business and professional people who are very loyal. • Farmers are often Republican, but are quick to change parties. • Evangelical Christians offer strong support (74% voted for McCain) • The South – 16 of 22 Senators, 9 of 11 states for McCain



SUMMARY • Only a few votes can be counted on:

o Blacks and Jews for the Democrats o Businesspeople for the Republicans

• With each election, a candidate must put together a

new coalition to win.

Primary vs. General Campaigns

What works in a primary election may not work in a general election, and vice versa. a) Different voters, workers, media attention in different types of elections. b) Must mobilize activists who will give money, volunteer, and attend caucuses c) Activists are more ideologically stringent than are the voters at large.


Iowa caucuses

a) Held in February of presidential election year

b) Candidates must do well or be disadvantaged for media attention, contributor interest c) Winners tend to be most liberal Democrat and most conservative Republican


The balancing act

a) Being conservative enough or liberal enough to get nominated. b) Once nominated, move to center to get elected. c) Apparent contradictions can alienate voters from all candidates.


Two kinds of campaign issues

POSITION ISSUES Issues on which rival candidates have opposing views and voters are divided (abortion, environmental protection)

VALENCE ISSUES Issues on which nearly everyone agrees (strong economy, low crime rates)


Two kinds of campaign issues

a) Voters select candidate who seems most closely linked to universally shared view

b) Increasingly important because television leads to a reliance on popular symbols and admired images.

c) The 2008 campaign relied on both valence and position issues. Both Obama and McCain supported “reforming” the health care system to make it “affordable.”

Effects of Elections on Policy

Some argue that public policy remains more or less the same no matter which official or party is in office. Conclusion: Many American elections do make differences in policy, though constitutional system generally moderates the pace of change.

1. Depends on the office and the policy 2. Voters must elect numerous officeholders who are not united in policy beliefs. 3. Parties have limited ability to build coalitions of officeholders. 4. Winning coalitions may change from policy to policy.

Effects of Elections on Policy

Why, then, the perception that elections do not matter?

• Periods of rapid change alternate with periods of consolidation.

• Most elections are not “critical”; instead,

they are retrospective judgments about the incumbent president and the current congressional majority.

Source: American National Election Studies

Ticket splitting


a The figures for 1980, 1984, 1988, and 1996 fail to add up to 100 percent because of missing data.

Politically Speaking:

Clothespin Vote

The vote cast by a person who does not like either candidate and so votes for the less objectionable of the two, putting a clothespin over his or her nose to keep out the unpleasant stench. p. 235


Figure 10.4 The Economy and Vote

for President, 1948–2004


Source: From American Public Opinion, 5th ed., by Robert S. Erikson and Kent L. Tedin. Copyright © 1995 by Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers, Inc. Reprinted by permission of Pearson Education, Inc.


Sources: For 1964–1976: Gallup poll data, as tabulated in Jeane J. Kirkpatrick, “Changing Patterns of Electoral Competition,” in The New American Political System, ed. Anthony King (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1978), 254–256. For 1980–1992: Data from New York Times/CBS News exit polls. For 1996: Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 1997, p. 188, For 2000: Exit polls supplied by ABC News. For 2004 and 2008, CNN exit polls.

Figure 10.5 Partisan Division of the

Presidential Vote, 1856-2008


Sources: Information for 1856–1988, updated from Historical Data Archive, Inter-University Consortium for Political Research, as reported in William H. Flanigan and Nancy H. Zingale, Political Behavior of the American Electorate, 3rd ed., 32. For 1992: World Almanac and Book of Facts 1994, 73.

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Chapter 10 Elections and Campaigns - Augusta County …€¦ · · 2013-11-19• Nominations...

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