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Chapter 7
Economic Growth:
Theory and Policy
Three Pillars of Productivity Growth
• Growth policy ensuring that the economy sustains a high long-run growth of Potential GDP
• Stabilization policy– Keep actual GDP
• Close to potential GDP - short run• No high unemployment• No high inflation
2
Three Pillars of Productivity Growth
• Labor productivity – grows:– Larger capital stock
• Given technology & labor force
– Better technology• Given capital & labor
– Workforce quality• More education & training• Given capital, technology, labor force
• Human capital (education & training)– Amount of skill – workforce
3
Production functions corresponding to three different capital stocks
Figure 1
4
0
Hours of Labor Input
Out
put
L1
Ya
K1
Yb
Yc
K2
K3c
b
a
Levels, Growth Rates, & Convergence
• Level of productivity– Higher in rich countries
– Depends on• Supply of human & physical capital• State of technology
• Growth rate of productivity– Depends on growth rates of
• Capital• Workforce skills• Technology
5
Productivity levels and productivity growth rates in selected countries
Table 1
6
CountryGDP per hour of work 1980
(as percentage of U.S.)GDP per hour of work 2005
(as percentage of U.S.)Growth
rate
United StatesFranceUnited KingdomSpainIrelandArgentinaMexicoBrazilSouth Korea
1008671625751443320
1009985629637252348
1.72.32.41.73.90.4-0.50.25.4
Levels, Growth Rates, & Convergence
• Convergence hypothesis– Nations with current low levels of
productivity• At times have higher productivity growth
rates
– International productivity differences• Shrink over time
– Productivity growth rates of poorer countries tend to be higher tend to be higher than those of richer countries.
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The Convergence Hypothesis
Figure 2
8
0Time
Rea
l GD
P p
er c
apita
$2,000
Poorer country
$10,000
Richer country
Levels, Growth Rates, & Convergence• In the long run, low productivity countries should be able
to learn from high productivity countries as scientific and managerial know-how spreads around the world.
• Technological laggards
– Can close the income gap
– Imitation, not innovation• Existing technologies
– “Convergence club” • Productivity growth rates - higher
– Where productivity levels are lower• Poorest nations
– Unable to join due to their inability to adopt advanced technology
9
Levels and growth rates of GDP per capita in selected poor countries
Table 2
10
Country GDP per capita 2005*
GDP per capita growth rate, 1990-2005
BelarusRussiaUkrainePeruHaitiBurundiSierra Leone
$1,8682,445960
2,337434105218
2.0%-0.4-2.42.3-2.4-2.5-0.9
*in constant 2000 U.S. dollars
Growth Policy: Capital Formation
• Nation’s capital– Available supply
• Plant, equipment, software
– Result of past decisions – investments
• Investment– Flow of resources
• Production of new capital
– Inputs• Construction of capital
– Period of time11
Growth Policy: Capital Formation
• Capital formation– Investment
– Process of building up capital stock
• Trade-off– More capital formation
• Quicker growth • Consume less today
– More consumption today• Less capital formation• Slower growth
12
Choosing between investment and consumption
Figure 3
13
0Consumer Goods Produced
Inve
stm
ent
Goo
ds P
rodu
ced
D
C
I
A
Growth Policy: Capital Formation
• Speed up capital formation / investment– Lower real interest rates – Amount that
businesses invest depends on the real interest rate they pay to borrow funds. The lower the real rate of interest, the higher would be the investment.
– Tax provisions – Tax laws gives the - Government several ways to influence business spending on investment goods.
– Technical change – Invention of mobiles14
Growth Policy: Capital Formation
• Speed up capital formation / investment– Growth of demand- High level of sales
and expectations of rapid economic growth create an atmosphere conducive to investment.
– Political stability
– Property rights• Laws and/or conventions• Owners - rights to use their property
15
Selected countries ranked by level of investor protection
Table 3
16
Country Rating (0-10 scale)
SingaporeUnited StatesCanadaUnited KingdomJapanMexicoIndiaSwedenBrazilItalyChinaSwaziland
9.38.38.38.07.06.06.05.75.35.05.02.3
Growth Policy: Education & Training
• More-educated & better-trained workers– Higher productivity
– Higher wages
• Education policy– Improve quality of education
• Earning gap• High school graduates• College graduates
• On-the-job-training– Skills acquired at work 17
Growth Policy: Technological Change
• Advancement of technology– More education
• Scientific, engineering, managerial
– More capital formation
– Research & development (R&D)• Inventing new products/processes• Improving existing ones
• R&D – encouraged by government– Tax credit– Collaborative research– Spending on R&D 18
Productivity Slowdown & Speed-up, U.S.
• 1948-1973: 2.8%• 1973-1995 Productivity slowdown, 1.4%• Productivity slowdown can be due to:
– Lagging investment
– High energy prices
– Inadequate workforce skills
– Not: technological slowdown
19
Average productivity growth rates in the United States, 1948–2007
Figure 5
20
Productivity Speed-up
• Productivity speed-up could be due to:– Education
– IT revolution
– Surging investment
– Falling energy prices
– Advances in information technology
21
Growth in the Developing Countries
• Poorly endowed with capital– Difficult to accumulate capital
• Development assistance – foreign aid– Outright grants & Low-interest loans
– From rich countries & multinational institutions
– To spur economic development
22
Growth in the Developing Countries
• Foreign direct investment– Purchase/construction
• Real business assets
– Multinational corporations
• Low level of technology• Low levels of education & training• Poor geographical conditions• Poor health• Governance
23
Average educational attainment in selected countries, 2000
Table 4
24
United StatesCanadaSouth KoreaJapanUnited KingdomItalyMexicoIndiaBrazilSudan
12.311.410.59.79.47.06.74.84.61.9
For people older than 25 years of age
From the Long Run to the Short Run
• Over long periods of time– Similar growth rates
• Actual GDP• Potential GDP
• Macroeconomic fluctuations– GDP shrinks – recessions
25