CHAPTER 7 HUMAN POPULATION DYNAMICS

What Is Unique About Kerala?

Kerala (Southern state in India) vs. India

• Life expectancy 71 years versus 61 for India• Infant mortality 17/1000 versus 72/1000 for India• Fertility rate 1.8 versus 3.3 for India• 95% literacy rate• All villages in state have access to school and modern

health services• Women as well-educated as men• Both men and women are equally involved in family

planning• 50 years of a communist party influencing anti-Hinduism

believes and rationalist practices

What is this chapter about????

• Improving the lives of people

• Reducing fertility rates

• Protecting the environment

Children As an Economic Asset

Reasons for Large Families in Developing Countries

• Old age security• High infant and childhood mortality rates• Children are considered an economic

asset• Education for women is minimized,

cosidered non-important• Low social status of women• Low availability and/or use of

contraceptives

Factors Influencing Family Size

• Importance of education and children viewed as economic assets or liabilities

• Status of women and importance of education• Income and old age security• Cultural views on child-bearing• Contraceptive use and availability

The Poverty Cycle

Good News Bad News

• Economic progress– increase in GNP – higher wages

• Social progress– > literacy rates– > clean drinking water– > sanitary sewers– < fertility rates (Table

6.1)

• 1.1 billion live on < $1/day

• 1 billion lack access to clean water

• 1 billion live in urban slums

• 800 million malnourished

PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT

Adult Female Illiteracy: A Global Comparison

Millennium Development Goals

• Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger• Achieve universal primary education• Promote gender equality and empower women• Reduce child mortality• Improve maternal health• Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases• Ensure environmental sustainability• Forge a global partnership for development

India, Pakistan, Avganistan

Japan, South Korea,China

Thailand, Vietnam,Phillipines

Ethiopia, Nigeria, Zambia,South Africa

Europe, North America

World Bank Reform Goals

• Improving the quality of life

• Improving the quality of growth

• Improving the quality of the regional and global commons

A New Direction: Social Modernization must consider

1. Improving education :educate women on birth control techniques

2. Improving health: provide vaccines, medication, contraceptives, clean water

3. AIDS

4. Family planning

5. Employment and income

6. Resource management

3. Impacts of AIDS Epidemic• AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome)=

the greatest Challenge to Health Care in Developing Countries

• 90% of all HIV-infected people (40 million by 2006) live in developing countries

• Life expectancy in Botswana was 61 years in 1980 – now 34 years

• One million elementary students lost teachers• 2.5 million AIDS orphans in developing world in

2010

4. Family Planning

• Counseling on: STDs, contraceptives, spacing children, pregnancy avoidance

• Supplying contraceptives

• Pre- and postnatal care

• Cutbacks in family-planning services lead to more unwanted pregnancies

Founder of Grameen Bank

• Muhammad Yunus: Economics professor in Bangladesh

• Microlending model duplicated by over 100 countries

• Recipient of 2006 Nobel Peace Prize

5. Employment and Income: Grameen Bank Loans (Microlending Model)

• Grant small loans primarily to women

• Does not upset existing social structure

• Utilize local resources for employment

• Utilize women for central work places

• Helps develop self-reliance

6. Resource Management

• Replant trees

• Prevent erosion

• Resource management educational programs

Putting It All Together: Social Modernization

The cycle of Social Modernization counteractsThe cycle of Poverty.

The Cairo Conference

• All nations agreed that population is an issue of crisis proportions that must be confronted forthrightly.

• Formulated the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development Program of Action (ICPD Program of Action)

The 1994 ICPD Program of Action

• Enhancing reproductive and basic health of women and children

• Improve education opportunities for women

• Empowerment of women • Reduce population migrations• International cooperation (0.7% GNP of

developed world)

ICPD 20 years later….• The 2014 session of the Commission on Population and Development opened

on 7 April with calls to redouble efforts to promote development through strengthened reproductive health and human rights. The session – to review progress made since the 1994 adoption of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo – cast a spotlight on the many challenges that remain, including persistent inequalities. “There have been great gains in the past 20 years – in poverty reduction, girls’ education, maternal and child mortality, access to sexual and reproductive health services, including family planning, protection of reproductive rights, and many other areas of the Programme of Action,” said Dr. Babatunde Osotimehin, Executive Director of UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund. “Yet these gains mask significant and growing inequalities, which are preventing the most vulnerable, marginalized and excluded among us – especially women and girls – from realizing their human rights as affirmed by the forward-looking Cairo consensus." - See more at: http://www.unfpa.org/events/commission-population-and-development-47th-session#sthash.IBkrGsFU.dpuf

World Population Over the Centuries

9,000 human beings added to the planet every hour

Reasons for the Human Population Explosion

• Causes of disease were recognized and treated• Improvements in nutrition• Discovery of antibiotics• Improvements in medicine• Increase in number of women who actually

reach child-bearing age• Short doubling times in some countries

Average Number of Children, Grandchildren, and Great Grandchildren in a family

• America

• West Germany

• Africa

14

5

258

Different Worlds

• Rich nations, poor nations

• Population growth in rich and poor nations

• Different populations, different problems

Major Economic Divisions of the World

Gross national income/capita

Economic Categories Based on Per Capita Gross National Income

• High-income, highly developed, industrialized countries– United States, Japan, Canada– Average GNI per capita = $26,710

• Middle-income, moderately developed countries– Latin America, South Africa, China– Average GNI per capita = $1,850

• Low-income, developing countries– Western and central Africa, India, central Asia– Average GNI per capita = $430

GNI= GNP/ population size

Disparities

• Developed countries– 15% of the world’s population– Control 80% of the world’s wealth

• Low-income developing countries– 37% of the world’s population– Control 3.0% of the world’s gross national

income

• Difference in per capita income: 63 to 1!

Dimensions of the Human Poverty Index

Different Populations, Different Problems

• Ehrlich and Holdren formula to account for human factors that contribute to environmental deterioration

• IPAT Formula: calculates human pressure on the environment

• I = P x A x T– I = environmental impact– P = population– A = affluence and consumptive patterns– T = level of technology in the society

Different Populations, Different Problems reflected in I=PAT

• Environmental impact of developing countries due to “P” population is high

• Environmental impact of developed countries due to “A” affluence and “T” technology is high– Average American places at least 20 times the

demand on Earth’s resources compared to a person in Bangladesh.

– Developed countries: lower P, high T, high A= high I– Developing countries: highest P, low A, low T= high I

Different Populations, Different Problems

• Affluence “A” effects can be moderated in developed countries by using stewardship

• How does stewardship (S) affect the IPAT formula?– S = wildlife conservation, pollution control,

energy conservation, and recycling

– INCREASE “S”, DECREASE “I”

I = P x A x TS

Population Increase in Developed and Developing Countries

Population Data for Selected Countries (Table 5-2)

Country Total Fertility Rate

Doubling Times (Years)

World 2.7 58

Developing Countries

2.9 47

Developed Countries

1.6 700

Global Conditions for a Sustainable Population

• Lower fertility rates (stabilize population)

• Consumption must decrease

• Protect the environment (stewardly action must increase

Developing Nations

• High fertility rates

• High consumptive lifestyles: use 80% of world’s wealth

• Intense poverty

• Eat high on the food chain

Developed Nations

• Long doubling times

• High environmental degradation

• Twenty percent of the world’s population

Basic Human Needs

• Drinkable water

• Edible food

• Safe housing

• Health care

• An education

• A job

The Developing Countries dealing with exploding populations

• Reform the system of land ownership

• Intensify cultivation of existing land to increase production per unit area

• Open new land to farm

• Move to cities and seek employment

• Engage in illicit activities for income

• Move to other countries

How do these “solutions” aggravate the problems?

Consequences of Exploding Populations

More PopulationCauses

MORE

LESS

deforestationresource depletionloss of agricultural landdiseasepest resistancepopulation migrationIrrigation

Wetlandsbiodiversity

Affluence in the United States

• Consume the largest share of 11 or 20 major commodities

• Eat more than three times the global average in meat

• Lead the world in paper consumption

• Environment improves with increasing affluence

Affluence= the state of having plentiful wealth including the possession of money, goods, or property

Affluence in the United States

• Enables wealthy to clean up immediate environment by transferring waste to more distant locations (underdeveloped nations)

• Affluent isolate themselves and unaware of the global environmental stresses caused by their consumptive lifestyles

Demography= the study of human populations and population trends

Immigration= the movement of people into a country or region, from another country or region

Emigration= the movement of people out of a country or region, from another country or region

Net Migration Rate= the difference between the immigration and emigration in a given year per 1000 people in a country

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)= the number of births per 1000 individuals per year

Crude Death Rate (CDR)= the number of deaths per 1000 individuals per year

Doubling Time= the number of years it takes a population to double

• Total Fertility Rate (TFR)= an estimate of the average number of children that each woman in a population will bear throughout her childbearing years

• Replacement Level Fertility= the total fertility rate required to offset the number of deaths in a population in order to maintain the current population size (typical replacement level is 2)

• Infant mortality= the number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1000 live births

• Child mortality= the number of deaths of chilren under 5 years of age per 1000 live births

• Life Expectancy= the average number of years that an infant born in a particular year in a particular country can be expected to live

Dynamics of Population Growth

To understand the dynamic of population growth, the following must be considered:

1. Population profiles

2. Future populations

3. Population momentum

4. The demographic transition

1. Population Profile United States

Population Profile United States

Future Population Profile United States

Population Profile of Italy

Population Profile Italy

2. Population Projections United States

Increased fertility rateof 2.0 and current migration

Fertility rate of 1.8

Population Profile Developing Country

Age structure diagram= a visual representation of the number of individualswithin specific age groups for a country, typically expressed for males and females

Population Profile Developing Country

3. Population Momentum= continued population growth after growth reduction measures have been implemented

• Effect of current age structures on future population growth

• Determined by percent of population in younger versus older age cohorts

• It will take countries with a large base of younger population a long time to achieve stability.

• Countries like Iraq will continue to grow for 50-60 years even after the total fertility rate is reduced to replacement level.

Global Population Growth Rate= ICBR-CDRI

10

(we divide by 10 to arrive at the % because the rates are expressed per 1000 people)

National Populaton Growth Rate=I(CBR+immigration)-(CDR+emigration)I

10

If we know the growth rate and assume it is constant, we can calculate the number of years it takes for a population to double.

Calculating Population Doubling Times

70/ Rate of Increase = Doubling Time

A Zero Growth Population is achieved only if CBR= CDR

Doubling time= the number of years it will take a population growing at a constant percentage per year to double

4. The Demographic Transition

-developing countries are already moving towards a stable, non-growing global human population by having smaller families than before-modernization brings about a lower death rate due to better health care, low infant and childhood mortality, and at the same time it brings about lowbirth rates

Demographic transition= the gradual shift in birth and death rates from the primitive to the modern condition in the industrialized societies

Crude Birth Rate (CBR) and Crude Death Rate (CDR)= the number of births and deaths respectively, per thousand of the population per year

Phases of The Demographic Transition

Phases of Demographic Transition

• Phase I: primitive stability (CBR = CDR)• Phase II: declining CDR, CBR remains high

accelerating population growth• Phase III: declining fertility rate, but significant

population growth continues• Phase IV: modern stability with low CBR and CDR• Phase IV: developed countries• Phases II and III: where most developing countries

are currently due to modern

medicine and sanitation being introduced

Reassessing the Demographic Transition

• Development should be linked to a reduction in poverty

• Existing poverty is an affront to humanity and should not be tolerated

• Both poverty and development are a threat to the health of the environment

• Improving women’s rights and education are foundational in achieving slower population growth

Vocabulary/concepts

• Factors involved in social modernization• Muhammad Yunus• Microlending Model• The Cairo Conference• ICPD program of action• Reasons for human population explosion• Dimensions of the human poverty index • IPAT formula• Stewardship• Developing nation• Developed nation• Affluence• Demography• Immigration• Emigration• Net migration rate• Crude birth rate• Crude death rate• Doubling time

• Total fertility rate• Replacement level fertility• Infant mortality• Child mortality• Life expectancy• Age structure diagram• Population momentum• Global populatin growth rate• National population growth rate• Zero population • Demographic transition phases