Chartbook 2005

Trends in the Overall Health Care Market

Chapter 5:Workforce

Chartbook 2005

Trends in the Overall Health Care Market

5-2

1.92.1

2.22.4

2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

80 85 90 95 97 98 99 00 01 02

Chart 5.1:Total Number of Active Physicians

per 1,000 Persons1980 – 2002

Source: CDC, NCHS Health United States, 1982, 1996-97, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004

(1) 1980 does not include doctors of osteopathy

Chartbook 2005

Trends in the Overall Health Care Market

5-3

2 – 2.99

< 2

3 – 3.99

> 4

Chart 5.2:Total Number of Active

Physicians(1)

per 1,000 Persons by State2002

Source: CDC, NCHS Health United States 2004

(1) Includes active non-federal doctors of medicine and active doctors of osteopathy

RI 3.34DE 2.52DC 6.18

Chartbook 2005

Trends in the Overall Health Care Market

5-4

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

Chart 5.3:Medical and Dental Residents in Training

in Community Hospitals1980 - 2003

Source: The Lewin Group analysis of American Hospital Association Annual Survey data, 1980 – 2003, for community hospitals

Chartbook 2005

Trends in the Overall Health Care Market

5-5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

Source: The Lewin Group analysis of American Hospital Association Annual Survey data, 1980 – 2003, for community hospitals

Chart 5.4:Total Full-Time Equivalent Employees

Working in Hospitals1980 - 2003

Mill

ions

Chartbook 2005

Trends in the Overall Health Care Market

5-6

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

Source: The Lewin Group analysis of American Hospital Association Annual Survey data, 1980 – 2003, for community hospitals

(1) An aggregate measure of workload reflecting the number of inpatient admissions, plus an estimate of the volume of outpatient services, expressed in units equivalent to an inpatient admission in terms of level of effort

Chart 5.5:Full-Time Equivalent Employees

per Adjusted Admission(1)

1980 - 2003

Chartbook 2005

Trends in the Overall Health Care Market

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 030.010

0.012

0.014

0.016

0.018

0.020

0.022

0.024

5-7

Chart 5.6:Number of RN Full-Time Equivalent Employees

and RN FTEs per Adjusted Admission1986 - 2003

Thousa

nds

of

RN

FTEs

RN

FTEs

per

Adju

sted A

dm

issi

on

Source: The Lewin Group analysis of American Hospital Association Annual Survey data, 1986 – 2003, for community hospitals

RN FTEs RN FTEs per Adjusted Admission

Chartbook 2005

Trends in the Overall Health Care Market

5-8

20%

21%

22%

23%

24%

25%

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

Chart 5.7:RN Full-Time Equivalents as a Percentage of

Total Hospital Full-Time Equivalents1986 - 2003

Source: The Lewin Group analysis of American Hospital Association Annual Survey data, 1986 – 2003, for community hospitals

Chartbook 2005

Trends in the Overall Health Care Market

5-9

Chart 5.8:Number of Physicians by Age

1980, 1990, and 2003

Source: American Medical Association, Physician Characteristics and Distribution in the US, 2005 Edition

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1980 1990 2003

Under 35

35-44

45-54

55-64

65 & Over

Ag

e 4

5 a

nd

over

Ag

e u

nd

er

44

Num

ber

of

Physi

cians

(in t

housa

nds)

Age Group

Chartbook 2005

Trends in the Overall Health Care Market

5-10

Chart 5.9:RN Employment by Type of

Provider1980 - 2000

Source: Findings from the National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses, 1980-2000, Bureau of Health Professions, Division of Nursing

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Hospitals

Nursing Homes /Extended Care Facilities

Public / Community Health

All Other

Chartbook 2005

Trends in the Overall Health Care Market

5-11

Chart 5.10:Distribution of RN Workforce by

Age Group1980 - 2020 (Projected)

Source: Buerhaus, P.I. et al. Implications of an Aging Registered Nurse Workforce. JAMA: 2000: 283: 2948-2954

1,000

500

0

500

1,000

1,500

1980 1990 2000 (proj.) 2010 (proj.) 2020 (proj.)

Num

ber

of

RN

s (i

n t

housa

nds)

Ag

e u

nd

er

40

Ag

e 4

0 a

nd

over

AgeGroup

20s

30s

40s

50s

60s

Chartbook 2005

Trends in the Overall Health Care Market

5-12

2.6%

-2.6%

-6.2% -5.5%-4.6%

-2.1%

3.7%

8.1%

16.6%14.9%

10.2%

12.4%

-6.6%

14.3%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

90 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Chart 5.11:Annual Percentage Change in

Entry Level Baccalaureate Nursing Enrollment

1990 - 2004

Source: Berlin LE et al. Enrollment and Graduations in Baccalaureate and Graduate Programs in Nursing. Washington, DC: American Association of Colleges of Nursing, 1990-1991 – 1996-1997. American Association of Colleges of Nursing, 2004.

Chartbook 2005

Trends in the Overall Health Care Market

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

5-13

Chart 5.12:National Supply and Demand Projections

for FTE RNs2000 - 2020

Source: National Center For Health Workforce Analysis, Bureau of Health Professions, Health Resources and Services Administration, 2004

RN FTE Demand

RN FTE Supply

Shortage of over 1,000,000 nurses in 2020

FTEs

(in t

housa

nds)