www.TransformingTransportation.org

Charting the Path to a Sustainable

Mobility Future: Three Revolutions in Global Transportation by 2030/2050

Lew Fulton, UC Davis, ITS STEPS Program

Presented at Transforming Transportation 2017

Charting the Path to a Sustainable Mobility Future: Three

Revolutions in Global Transportation by 2030/2050

Lew Fulton

UC Davis, ITS STEPS Program Transforming Transportation

January 13, 2017

Passenger Transport “Revolutions”

1. Streetcars (~1890)

2. Automobiles (~1910)

3. Airplanes (~1930)

4. Limited-access highways (1930s….1956)

2010+

1. Vehicle electrification

low carbon vehicles and fuels

2. Real-time, shared mobility

less vehicle use

3. Vehicle automation (2025?)

Uncertain impacts

Heaven… or Hell

• Ride sharing, multimodal (transit/NMT) ecosystem

• More compact, livable cities

• “Right-sizing” of vehicles

• Reduction in traffic/travel times

• Fuel efficiency improvements/ electrification/lower CO2

• More single-occupant (and zero occupant) vehicles

• More sprawl/car-dependence

• Bigger vehicles

• Longer trips/ time spent traveling/ increased traffic congestion

• Higher energy use/CO2

Vehicle Automation Increases or Reduces

Energy Use (and GHGs)?!

Wadud et al, 2015

Questions and conflicts

• Automation – lower per-trip costs, lower “time cost” for being in vehicles – longer trips?

– Empty running (zero passengers) of vehicles

• For-hire vehicles – giving discounts for sharing may be less interesting with no driver costs

• Ride sharing – at conflict with public transit use?

• Private vehicles – decreased negative costs may mean less public sharing?

• Assumed electrification with automation – but not necessarily

3 Revolutions study builds on two previous

ITDP / UC Davis studies

Global High Shift Scenario

• High future urban mode shares of transit and active transport around the world; cut car use in half

• Much lower CO2, significantly cheaper transportation system costs

Global HS Cycling Scenario

• Added very high cycling and e-biking mode shares to previous study

• Cut CO2 use an additional 10% and lowered costs

Study scope – two main aspects

• Investigate and report on the current (2016) status of a range of types of new mobility services around the world

• Create 3 Revolutions urban passenger/vehicle travel scenarios to 2030, 2050

Creating 3 Revolutions scenarios to 2030, 2050

• Explore scenarios related to how much the technologies and services could grow and shape future transport

• How may patterns vary in different countries?

• What types of overall mobility, energy and environmental impacts might these services have in the context of broader urban transport system developments?

• Explore interactions between the three revolutions

• Develop narratives on how each scenario could develop

• Identification of policies that could steer existing trends to maximize mobility and sustainability benefits to cities

Rough guide to the three scenarios

Electrification

AutomationShared

Vehicles

Urban Planning/

Pricing/TDM Policies

Aligned with 1.5 Degree

Scenario

Scenario 1: Business as usual (BAU), Limited Intervention

Low Low Low Low No

Scenario 2: Technology-dominant 2R

HIGH HIGH Low Low YES

Scenario 3: Avoid Shift Improve 3R

HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH YES

Supportive Policies – to be linked to scenarios

• 2R Scenario:– Subsidies for automation & Electrification– Little restriction on automation (after early 2020s)

• 3R Scenario:– Compact Urban Development policies– Tax policies– Investment in Transit/walking/cycling– Heavy promotion of sharing and public transit, eg VKT tax, graduated

by occupancy:• ZOV = highest fee• SOV = high fee• Shared rides = low/no fee• Minibus = no fee?• Bus, BRT, Transit = subsidized

– Scrappage or conversion incentives -> Shared AV/EV

Passenger kms of travel, aggregated modes, USA

• Automated vehicle travel not significant by 2030 in any scenario, but dominates in 2050. Results in much higher travel in 2R

• US remains car dominated to 2050 - increase in travel mode mix in 3R, but mostly due to TNCs. Also significant minibus travel. Non-car travel reaches 18% in 3R

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Base Year BAU 2R 3R BAU 2R 3R

2015 2030 2050

United States

Bill

ion

kilm

oe

ters Other

Bus/rail

Minibus

Public AV

Public LDV

Private AV

Private LDV

US LDV sales evolution by scenario

• BAU Case – sales rise slowly with little change in vehicle types

• 2R Case – sales rise slowly with major changes in private vehicles, but few public vehicles

• 3R Case - Sales decline fast through 2035, then recover somewhat

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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Sale

s, m

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Private ICE Private EV Private AV/EV

Public ICE Public EV Public AV/EV

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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

sale

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Private ICE Private EV Private AV/EV

Public ICE Public EV Public AV/EV

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2

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18

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Ve

hic

le s

ale

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Private ICE Private EV Private AV/EV

Public ICE Public EV Public AV/EV

US LDV energy use by scenario

• BAU - liquid fuels (green) dominates but drops due to efficiency improvements

• 2R – electricity (blue) dominant by 2050

• 3R – electricity use in 2050 about 40% lower than 2R level due to mobility changes

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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Bilio

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gaso

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TOTAL Liquid fuel TOTAL electricity

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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Bilio

n lit

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gaso

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equi

v.TOTAL Liquid fuel TOTAL electricity

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50

100

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350

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Bilio

n lit

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gaso

line

equi

v.

TOTAL Liquid fuel TOTAL electricity

Next Steps

• Refine results, add 1R, finish cost analysis

• Develop full narratives and integrate policy requirements

• Deeper visualizations to output set

• Report launch in March 2017 (I hope)