COCA LEAF CULTIVATION IN BOLIVIA (HECTARES) Dept of Stat e 1 United Nation s 2 Central Intellige nce Agency 3 1988 48,90 0 -- -- 1989 52,90 0 -- -- 1990 50,30 0 -- -- 1991 47,90 0 -- -- 1992 45,50 0 -- -- 1993 47,20 0 -- -- 1994 48,10 0 -- -- 1995 48,60 0 -- -- 1996 48,10 0 -- -- 1997 45,80 0 -- -- 1998 38,00 0 -- -- 1999 21,80 -- -- 1 US State Dept Policy and Program Developments 2004 2 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) 2012 World Drug Report 3 Central Intelligence Agency Crime and Narcotics Center (CNC); estimates obtained from Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) “Drug Availability Estimates in the United States 2012”
Transcript
COCA LEAF CULTIVATION IN BOLIVIA (HECTARES) Dept of State1
1 US State Dept Policy and Program Developments 20042 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) 2012 World Drug Report3 Central Intelligence Agency Crime and Narcotics Center (CNC); estimates obtained from Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) “Drug Availability Estimates in the United States 2012”
According to statistics from the US Department of State, coca leaf cultivation in Bolivia throughout much the 1990s remained relatively steady between 40,000 and 50,000 hectares. During the late 1990s, cultivation of the coca leaf fell drastically—inversely correlating with the rise of coca leaf cultivation in Colombia. Since the implementation of Plan Colombia in 1999—and the corresponding decline of coca leaf cultivation in Colombia—cultivation has once again begun to rise in Bolivia, as well as in Peru. As we can see, according to statistics for the State Department, coca leaf cultivation has risen much more quickly than suggested by statistics from the United Nations and the Central Intelligence Agency.
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UN
CIA
COCA LEAF CULTIVATION IN PERU (HECTARES)
Coca leaf cultivation in Peru, similar to the pattern of cultivation in Bolivia, remained very high (between 100,000 and 140,000) for the first half of the 1990s. After 1995, there was a sharp decline in cultivation (also corresponding with increased cultivation in Colombia). Since Plan Colombia, as is the case in Bolivia, coca leaf cultivation has begun to slowly resurface as a major source of illicit crime in Peru. Statistics from the United Nations seem to generally calculate slightly higher cultivation activity in Peru when compared with statistics gathered by the Department of State and the Central Intelligence Agency.
Coca leaf cultivation in Colombia is a sensitive issue that often results in highly disputed statistics. Cultivation was relatively low in Colombia until the mid-1990s when it began to spike. After Plan Colombia was implemented, there was a reduction in cultivation activities. Statistics given by the Central Intelligence Agency suggest that, since 2003, there has been yet another sharp increase in cultivation. However, statistics provided by the United Nations depict a much steadier pattern of relative decline in coca leaf production.
TOTAL COCA LEAF CULTIVATION IN THE ANDEAN REGION (HECTARES)
As we can see, with all sources taken into consideration, there has been a general decline in the total coca leaf cultivation within the Andean region from 1988 to 2010. There is some disparity between estimates from the Department of State/United Nations and the Central Intelligence Agency; however, the most common trend is a steady decline in coca leaf cultivation.
Cocaine production in Bolivia (according to statistics from a joint project of the Center for International Policy, the Latin America Working Group Education Fund, and the Washington Office on Latin America, as well as statistics from the United Nations) has shown a pattern of slight but steady increase from 2001 until the last data available from these sources in 2009. Something to take note of is the fact that estimates from the U.S. study tend to be higher than UN estimates. Also, between 2006 and 2007, cocaine production rose drastically according to the U.S. study, but only slightly according to the UN study.
4 Adam Isaacson. A joint project of the Center for International Policy, the Latin America Working Group Education Fund, and the Washington Office on Latin America. <http://justf.org/blog/ 2011/01/20/us-governments-cocaine-production-estimates>5 UNODC 2012 World Drug Report. For Bolivian estimates: calculations based on UNODC studies (for the Yungas of La Paz) and studies of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) of the United States (for Chapare). For Colombian estimates: national illicit crop monitoring system supported by UNODC and DEA studies. Due to the introduction of an adjustment factor for small fields, 2010 estimates are not directly comparable with previous years. For Peruvian studies: calculations based on coca leaf to cocaine conversion ratio from DEA studies.
U.S. United Nations
2001 100 --
2002 110 --
2003 100 --
2004 115 --
2005 115 80
2006 115 94
2007 130 104
2008 195 113
2009 195 --
2010 -- --
Cocaine production in Peru has remained relatively steady since 2001, generally falling between 200 and 250 metric tons. Note that in this study, UN estimates have shown larger amounts of cocaine production than the U.S. study (as opposed to the estimates for Bolivia in the previous graph). Also take note that between 2006 and 2007, U.S. estimates display a slight decline in production, while UN estimates show a slight increase.
2002 280 --
2003 245 --
2004 230 --
2005 240 260
2006 245 280
2007 210 290
2008 215 302
2009 225 --
2010 -- --
COCAINE PRODUCTION IN PERU (METRIC TONS)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
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U.S.*UN**
Cocaine production estimate patterns in Colombia have been much more varying than production patterns in the other countries. As we can see, according to the U.S. study, cocaine production was in steady decline from 2001 to 2004. There was an increase in production between 2004 and 2008, and then again a steady decrease. Estimates provided by the United Nations were consistently much higher than estimates produced by the U.S. study. Also, estimates given by President Santos of Colombia were between estimates given by the United Nations and the U.S.
TOTAL COCAINE PRODUCTION IN THE ANDEAN REGION (METRIC TONS)
U.S. United Nations
President Santos
(Colombia)
2001 700 -- --
2002 585 -- --
2003 445 -- --
2004 410 -- --
2005 500 680 --
2006 515 660 --
2007 485 630 --
2008 280 450 --
2009 270 410 343
2010 -- 350 279
As we can see, with estimates from the U.S. and the United Nations, there has been a general, slow decline in the total production of cocaine within the Andean region from 2001 to 2010. There was a slight resurfacing of cocaine production between 2004 and 2007; however, production has been in relative decline.
BELIZE: SEIZURES OF COCAINE 1990-2010 (METRIC TONS)
U.S. United Nations
2001 1,055 --
2002 975 --
2003 790 --
2004 755 --
2005 855 1,020
2006 875 1,034
2007 825 1,024
2008 690 865
2009 690 --
2010 -- --
United Nations6
Bunk and Fowler7*
1990
-- 0.5
1991
-- 0
1992
-- 1
1993
-- 0
1994
-- 0
1995
1 1
1996
1 0
1997
3 2.5
1998
0 0
1999
0 0
2000
0 0
2001
4 4
2002
0 0
2003
0 0
2004
1 0.5
6 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. “Crime and Development in Central America: Caught in the Crossfire”. 2007.7 Bunk, Julie Marie and Michael Ross Fowler. Bribes, Bullets, and Intimidation: Drug Trafficking and the Law in Central America. The Pennsylvania State University Press. University Park, Pennsylvania. 2012. “Cocaine Seizures in Belize 1990-2010”. Pg 100. *Exact numbers were not provided on source’s graph, so numbers are rounded to the nearest quarter ton.
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
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20042005
20062007
20082009
2010-0.5
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Bunk and Fowler
This chart shows the annual seizures of cocaine in Belize from the year 1990 to 2010. *Take note that 0 is not at the origin of the graph. This was done to show the difference between 0 tons of cocaine being seized in a year, and a year which has no information. The graph used by Bunk and Fowler did not contain exact numbers; therefore, the amounts depicted are estimates of the number that Bunk and Fowler were attempting to display on their graph. That number was rounded to the nearest half-ton.
2005
-- 2.5
2006
-- 0
2007
-- 0
2008
-- 0
2009
-- 0
2010
-- 2.5
COSTA RICA: SEIZURES OF COCAINE 1982-2010 (METRIC TONS)
This chart shows the annual seizures of cocaine in Costa Rica from the year 1982 to 2010. *Take note that 0 is not at the origin of the graph. This was done to show the difference between 0 tons of cocaine being seized in a year, and a year which has no information. The graph used by Bunk and Fowler did not contain exact numbers; therefore, the amounts depicted are estimates of the number that Bunk and Fowler were attempting to display on their graph. That number was rounded to the nearest ton. Values on the y-axis are displayed in increments of five. Due to the data available for a large span of years, the every even year was displayed on the graph.
GUATEMALA: SEIZURES OF COCAINE 1987-2010 (METRIC TONS)
United Nations
Bunk and Fowler*
1982
-- 0
1984
-- 0
1986
-- 1
1988
-- 0
1990
-- 1
1992
-- 2
1994
-- 1
1996
2 2
1998
7 7
2000
6 2
2002
3 4
2004
5 5
2006
-- 25
2008
-- 22
2010
-- 15
This chart shows the annual seizures of cocaine in Guatemala from the year 1987 to 2010. *Take note that 0 is not at the origin of the graph. This was done to show the difference between 0 tons of cocaine being seized in a year, and a year which has no information. Values of the y-axis are displayed in increments of two. The graph used by Bunk and Fowler did not contain exact numbers; therefore, the amounts depicted are estimates of the number that Bunk and Fowler were attempting to display on their graph. That number was rounded to the nearest ton.
19871988
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Bunk and Fowler
HONDURAS: SEIZURES OF COCAINE 1986-2010 (METRIC TONS)
United Nations
Bunk and Fowler*
1987
-- 2
1988
-- 1
1999
-- 3
1990
-- 16
1991
-- 16
1992
-- 10
1993
-- 8
1994
-- 2
1995
1 1
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4 4
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5 4
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9 9
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10 10
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2 2
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4 4
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3 3
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9 9
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4 4
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2006
-- 0
This chart shows the annual seizures of cocaine in Honduras from the year 1986 to 2010. *Take note that 0 is not at the origin of the graph. This was done to show the difference between 0 tons of cocaine being seized in a year, and a year which has no information. Values of the y-axis are displayed in increments of two. The graph used by Bunk and Fowler did not contain exact numbers; therefore, the amounts depicted are estimates of the number that Bunk and Fowler were attempting to display on their graph. That number was rounded to the nearest ton.
19861987
19881989
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19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
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20042005
20062007
20082009
2010-2
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Bunk and Fowler
PANAMA: SEIZURES OF COCAINE 1982-2010 (METRIC TONS)
8 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. “Crime and Development in Central America: Caught in the Crossfire”. 2007.9 Bunk, Julie Marie and Michael Ross Fowler. Bribes, Bullets, and Intimidation: Drug Trafficking and the Law in Central America. The Pennsylvania State University Press. University Park, Pennsylvania. 2012. “Cocaine Seizures in Belize 1990-2010”. Pg 100. *Exact numbers were not provided on source’s graph, so numbers are rounded to the nearest quarter ton.
This chart shows the annual seizures of cocaine in Panama from the year 1982 to 2010. *Take note that 0 is not at the origin of the graph. This was done to show the difference between 0 tons of cocaine being seized in a year, and a year which has no information. Values of the y-axis are displayed in increments of five. The graph used by Bunk and Fowler did not contain exact numbers; therefore, the amounts depicted are estimates of the number that Bunk and Fowler were attempting to display on their graph. That number was rounded to the nearest ton.
This chart and graph were adapted from a table in the National Drug Control Policy Data Supplement 2011. They depict cocaine seizures by functional zones including Source Zone (Colombia, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, Brazil, and “other”), Transit Zone (including Atlantic Corridor, Africa, and the Western Pacific Corridor), and Arrival Zone. Note that most US bound cocaine would be transiting either the Atlantic or Pacific Corridors (in Central America and Mexico).
This chart and graph were also adapted from a table in the National Drug Control Policy Data Supplement 2011. They depict cocaine prices and purities in the United States. As we can see, prices and purity of cocaine have plummeted in the past few years—alluding to the decrease in demand for cocaine in the United States. Numbers in the table were rounded from the original statistics to the nearest whole number.
