24
EXECUTIVE BOARD 22 OCTOBER 2014
EXECUTIVE BOARD 22 OCTOBER 2014
2
Trading partners (25 TPs)
Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank * Projections for 50.5 percent of the countries from the IMF WEO update in July, the remaining from IMF WEO in April
0
1
2
3
4
5
2014 2015
MPR 3/14
IMF WEOOctober
IMF WEOupdateJuly*IMF WEOApril
40
45
50
55
60
40
45
50
55
60
2010 2012 2014
Advanced economiesEmerging economies
PMI for manufacturing Advanced and emerging economies among 25 TPs. January 2010 – September 2014
Projected GDP growth
9092949698100102104106108
9092949698
100102104106108
2008 2010 2012 2014
Euro areaSwedenUKUSJapan
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
9092949698100102104106108
9092949698
100102104106108
2008 2010 2012 2014
GermanyItalySpainFrance
GDP Seasonally adjusted volume index. 2008 Q1 = 100. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q2
Inflation in G-20 countries Consumer price inflation. January 2009 – August 2014
-2
0
2
4
-2
0
2
4
2009 2011 2013
Core inflation Inflation
Sources: Thomson Reuters, IMF and Norges Bank
0
2
4
6
8
0
2
4
6
8
2009 2011 2013
Inflation Core inflation
Advanced economies excl. Japan Emerging economies
Inflation Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2000 – September 20141)
5
-2
0
2
4
6
-2
0
2
4
6
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
UK Euro areaSweden US
1) To end-August 2014 for US Source: Thomson Reuters
Selected equity indices January 2013 = 100. 1 January 2013 – 20 October 2014
6
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2013 2014
USEmerging economiesEurope
Premiums on corporate bonds with a low credit rating Basis points. 1 January 2013 – 20 October 2014
Sources: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters
200
300
400
500
600
200
300
400
500
600
2013 2014
USEurope
Yields on 10-year government bonds
7
Percent. 1 January 2010 – 20 October 2014
012345678
012345678
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GermanyItalySpainUKUS
Source: Bloomberg
Key rates Actual and expected. Percent. 1 January 2007 – 1 October 2016
8
-101234567
-101234567
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
US
Euro area
UK
20 October 2014
Source: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
Money market rates
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2015 2016 2017
MPR 3/14 20 October 2014
Average of expected money market rates among trading partners. Percent. 2015 Q1 – 2017 Q4
9 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Commodity prices
050100150200250300350
050
100150200250300350
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Food Metals Oil price
The Economist commodity index. Weekly figures. USD. Index, January 2005=100. January 2005 – October 20141)
10 1) Last observation is 17 October 2014 Source: Thomson Reuters
Oil price (Brent Blend) and price of Norwegian petroleum exports1)
USD per barrel. Daily figures. 3 January 2000 – October 20182)
11
0
40
80
120
160
0
40
80
120
160
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
SpotFuturesCut-off MPR 3/14Petroleum exports
1) Weighted average of Norwegian crude oil and gas exports 2) Last observation for oil price is 20 October 2014, USD 84.84 Sources: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Oil price and the exchange rate (I-44) 1 January 2014 – 21 October 2014
80
90
100
110
12090
91
92
93
94
95
96Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14
I-44 (l.h.s., inverted)
Oil price (r.h.s.)
12 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
GDP for mainland Norway Four-quarter change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Percent. 2012 Q1– 2014 Q4
012345678
012345678
2012 2013 2014
GDP, mainland Norway
SAM in MPR 3/14
SAM 10 October
MPR 3/14
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 13
30%
50%
70%
90%
Petroleum investment Constant 2010 prices. In billions of NOK. 2000 - 2017
14 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
MPR 3/14
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Structural non-oil deficit
4 percent real return
15
Structural non-oil deficit and expected real return Constant 2015 prices. In billions of NOK. 2001 - 2015
Source: Ministry of Finance
Real underlying spending growth in government budget Percent. 2001 - 2015
16
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average 2001-2013
Source: Ministry of Finance
17 Sources: Statistics Norway and NAV
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2012 2013 2014
Unemployment Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted
LFS employment In thousands of employed persons. Seasonally adjusted
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
2008 2010 2012 2014
NAV LFS
Index of household consumption of goods Seasonally adjusted. Volume. January 2012 – August 2014
18
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14Source: Statistics Norway
House prices Percent. January 2011 – September 2014
Sources: Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening (Eff), Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi
2011 2012 2013 2014-10
0
10
20
-1
0
1
2Seasonally adjusted monthly change (l.h.s.)
Twelve-month change (r.h.s.)
19
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60Credit
standards2) Market share Lending
margins Total demand
Norges Bank’s survey of bank lending Household credit demand, credit standards and lending margins Net percentage balances1)
1) Net percentage balances are calculated by weighting together the responses in the survey. The blue bar shows reported developments for the relevant quarter. The red diamonds show expected developments for that quarter
2) Negative net percentage balances denote tighter credit standards Source: Norges Bank
20
CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector
21
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – December 2014
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014
Domestically produced goods and servicesImported consumer goodsCPI-ATE
MPR 3/14
CPI-ATE Four-quarter change. Percent. 2012 Q1 – 2014 Q4
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
2012 2013 2014
CPI-ATE
MPR 3/14
SAM in MPR 3/14
SAM 10 October
22
30%
50%
70%
90%
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
23
Key policy rate Probability distribution from MPR 3/14. Percent. 2008 Q1– 2017 Q4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Strategy interval:1-2 percent
Source: Norges Bank
EXECUTIVE BOARD 22 OCTOBER 2014
