Check out Nigeria’s Next President

CHECK OUT NIGERIA’S NEXT PRESIDENT

By Jamil Mustapha Ango

Jamil/Countdownto2020/July, 2010

Background

It is nine months, and a couple of days before the next Nigeria’s President is inaugurated!

And 2011 is key to laying solid political and leadership foundation for the attainment of Nigeria’s vision 2020

So who will be the man likely to be inaugurated come 29th May, 2011, could it be any of the following;


Chance of becoming next President: 60%

Profile Strengths WeaknessAn indigene of the Niger delta, Bayelsa State

Incumbency and silence on ambition

Shrouded with Moral burden of flouting PDP zoning agreement

Elected deputy Governor in 1999 and became Governor in 2006 after impeachment of Incumbent

Huge Resources and likely support from South- South and South East Governors (perhaps all Governors)

Coming from a minority area that on its own cannot constitute a large enough political force

Elected Vice President in 2007 and became President in 2010 after death of President Yardua.

Perceived commitment to electoral Reforms

Inability to record much progress in key areas of power and security since assumption of office

GoodLuck Jonathan


Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida

Profile Strengths Weakness

A retired army officer, who was Army Chief of Staff. Hails from Niger State

Huge financial resources.

Hunted by past issues of June 12 and Gulf war oil windfall

Former military President (1985- 1993)

Many members of political, traditional and former military ruling class indebted to his goodwill and favor during his presidency days.

Poor following among northern masses.

Fondly called ‘Maradona’, others call him ‘Evil Genius’

May enjoy the support of northern elite who see in him a strong candidate that can match the incumbent President

Lack of control of PDP structure.



Muhammadu Buhari


Former Military officer that served as GOC, Governor and Federal Commissioner

Reputation for honesty, transparency and accountability

Weak political structures outside of Northern Nigeria

Was Former Military Head of State (1982-1985)

Large following among masses of Northern Nigeria

Inadequate financial resources to fund campaign and other funding requirements of politics

Began political career in 2002, has contested for President twice, in 2003 and 2007 under the ANPP. Still aiming for the same target under his own established party, the congress for Positive Change (CPC)

Modest means of living

Poor support among ruling class who are afraid of prosecution in the event of his return to power.



Atiku AbubakarProfile Strengths Weakness

An indigene of Adamawa State and former customs service officer who retired as Deputy Director

Political doggedness and fight to the end spirit

Long standing ambition to be President (some say at all cost)

Elected Governor of Adamawa State in 1999 but was selected to serve as Vice President to President Olusegun Obasanjo (1999- 2007)

Huge financial resources

Loss of power base in the PDP

Contested elections, against all odds, in 2007 for President under his own political party, the Action Congress, AC. Now a returnee to the PDP

Secret large following among rank and file members of the PDP

Hunted by allegations of corrupt practices

Chance of becoming next President: 40 %

Ibrahim Shekarau


Former Secondary School Principal and Permanent Secretary in Kano State

Wide range of experience as Governor of most populous State in Nigeria

Inadequate structures of the ANPP outside Northern States

Elected Governor of Kano State in 2003 and re -elected in 2007.

Enjoys goodwill of leaders and members of his party the ANPP and some stakeholders across Nigeria

Loss of support base among some strong religious and political class in Kano State

The first Governor in Kano to enjoy two terms of office and now key contender for the presidential nomination ticket of the ANPP.

Full control of Government machinery in Kano State.

Allegations of supporting a PDP control of his party the ANPP

Chance of becoming Nigeria’s next President: 35%



Quick Check! The contest for the 2011 presidential

campaign is crowded with Northern candidates. Probably in line with the belief that the North still owns the chance to produce the President of Nigeria

Otherwise the North is already disadvantaged against an only southern candidate, who is even yet to announce his interest.

North or South Nigeria must in 2011, produce a President that will make the country work and make progress towards attainment of the vision 2020 (V20-2020)

A Jamil Ango Creation for Countdown to 2020, July 2010

So what is V20-2020 all about?

It represents an intention to achieve a transformation of the

Nigerian State across social, cultural and political dimensions

The V2020 document clearly lays out the path for the rapid, robust and sustainable growth

of the country's economy

The target is to make Nigeria one of the top

twenty World economies by the year 2020.

An economy with a gross domestic product of 900 billion dollars, a per capital income of 4000 dollars and enjoying an annual growth rate of 13.8%


Its all about erecting three pillars

Pill

ar one

• Guaranteeing the well being and productivity of the people

• Key Activities:

• Increasing the agricultural output of small holder farmers

• sustaining the renewed focus on commercial agriculture

• Sitting of at least one primary health care with appropriate staff in each ward of all LGAs

• Expansion of secondary and tertiary health care coverage through sitting of at least one general hospital in each LGA

• Rehabilitating, constructing and modernizing existing water supply and sanitation schemes

• Public awareness campaigns on reduction of solid waste

• Development of an effective land administration system to make land available and providing targeted subsidies to facilitate home ownerships to lower income groups

• Enforcement of compulsory enrollment and retention of children in primary and junior secondary schools

Pill

ar t

wo

• Optimizing the key sources of economic growth

• Key Activities :

• Exploration of minerals will be given additional focus and support

• Agricultural production and processing of agricultural products for export will also be boosted.

• Oil and gas reserves will also be given attention in order to explore untapped resources and most importantly manufacturing and export of such manufactured goods is a key activity.

• Priority industries to be put in place include chemicals and pharmaceuticals, non metallic mineral product, basic metal, iron and steel, food, beverages and tobacco and textiles among others

• Four key facilities will be developed, namely; industrial parks (one in each geo political zone), industrial clusters, enterprise zones and incubators.

• Establishment of new sea ports

Pill

ar three

• Fostering sustainable social and economic growth

• Key Activities :

• Empowerment of LGAs with more funding for rural development

• Creation of a strong, efficient and effective service institutions based on merit

• Strengthening the fight against corruption with stringent laws.

• Security agencies and laws will also be further improved upon to secure society and investments.

• Concept of the Nigerian dream

• A target of 35,000 mega watts of electricity by 2020,

• Construction of 8 six lane roads across the country

And complete with planning, monitoring and evaluation framework to translate blueprint into action and track results through such instruments as medium term frame works, annual budgets, score cards and annual Nigeria Reports


What Government Has Achieved so far

Establishment of a NV 2020 technical committee and

working groups

Establishment of private sector led Business support Group to leverage private sector support to the process

Development and production of V2020 document

Launching of the document by President Goodluck Jonathan

in June, 2010

Development of medium term framework and incorporation of some items in the 2010 budget

Development of a work plan for year 2010 and beyond


The Key Road Blocks

Government Bureaucracy

Slow implementation of plan in view of the fact that there is less than 10years to the target

date

Inadequate funds, as the sum of 32 trillion

Naira is required, which is no where available


My suggestions on Way Forward

Take away implementation from Government and make

it private sector driven

Carry out big enlightenment and mobilisation campaign to gain

buy in of Nigerian citizens

Commit all annual budgets for all tiers of government (an average of 3.2

trillion/year) and private sector to the plan , over a period of the next ten years

More commitment, transparency, fight against corruption and

accountability will add weight to it all!

Or what do you think?

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