1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG A MONTHLY ROUNDUP AND ANALYSIS OF THE KEY FACTORS SHAPING WORLD CHEMICAL MARKETS CHEMICAL BUSINESS FOCUS CONTACT: PHILIPPA DAVIES Email: [email protected]ISSUE NUMBER 17 23RD JANUARY 2015 1,4-Butanediol As expected, the North American BDO market has started to see further price reduction in the first quarter. So far, decreases ranging from 5-12c/lb have been reported for first quarter contracts, with the majority falling within the 6-10/lb range. Demand from the major end use sectors has picked up again in January, and the outlook for the year is positive. In Europe, similarly, quarterly contract reductions are being reported ranging from €50-80/ton with some suppliers offering more sizeable decreases than others. January volumes are reported to be largely to forecast. In the middle of January, Chinese BDO prices were assessed at Rmb 9600-9700/ton. Many market participants do not consider that there is much room for BDO prices to fall further. PBT Strong automotive sales in North America along with sustained healthy demand from the electrical and electronics sectors are maintaining a healthy PBT market. Fears are being voiced, however, regarding the possibility that growth in the coming year could fall short of last year’s robust figures. The sharp downward trend in feedstock costs continues to be a feature of the European market in January, and there is some expectation that PBT prices could respond with a small dip, following an extended period of very stable pricing. In Asia and China, PBT resin prices moved lower under pressure from sharply weaker feedstock prices and continuing oversupply. Polyester Polyols The January market has seen a reasonable start, following the destocking in December which has led to a need for replenishing inventory this month. Significant downward pressure from plummeting raw material prices, especially benzene, has led buyers to call for sizeable decreases in polyester polyol prices. Polyols have also come under similar price pressure in Europe with the same factors at work in this region, and with a less bullish demand scenario also weighing on some sectors of the market. The Chinese market has softened in the midst of bearish raw materials along with seasonally slow demand. PTMEG The year has begun well for the North American PTMEG sector, with buyers looking to replenish inventory following the year-end stock reduction programs. Quarter one contract prices have dipped 4-5c/lb. The European PTMEG market has softened again in quarter one, although to a lesser extent than the BDO contract price. January volumes are reported to be healthy. The Chinese spandex PTMEG market was fairly weak and producers made attempts to maintain prices at a stable level. However this was not enough to prevent high end prices from sliding down due to restricted demand. Spandex The Chinese spandex market continued to weaken in January. Several grades of spandex continued a downward trend and decreased significantly. At the end of the year, demand in the downstream weaving sector was weak. Spandex producers promoted sales volume actively by lowering offers, due to increasing sales pressure. The market is largely weak, and expectations for the short term remain negative. The market is not expected to improve prior to the Spring Festival.
Transcript
1,4-BUTA
NED
IOL &
DERIVATIVES
INC
LUD
ING
MA
LEIC A
NH
YDRID
E, PROPYLEN
E OXID
E, POLYESTER PO
LYOLS, PBT A
ND
PTMEG
A MONTHLY ROUNDUP AND ANALYSIS OF THE KEY FACTORS SHAPING WORLD CHEMICAL MARKETS
1,4-ButanediolAs expected, the North American BDO market has started to see further price reduction in the first quarter. So far, decreases ranging from 5-12c/lb have been reported for first quarter contracts, with the majority falling within the 6-10/lb range. Demand from the major end use sectors has picked up again in January, and the outlook for the year is positive. In Europe, similarly, quarterly contract reductions are being reported ranging from €50-80/ton with some suppliers offering more sizeable decreases than others. January volumes are reported to be largely to forecast. In the middle of January, Chinese BDO prices were assessed at Rmb 9600-9700/ton. Many market participants do not consider that there is much room for BDO prices to fall further.
PBT Strong automotive sales in North America along with sustained healthy demand from the electrical and electronics sectors are maintaining a healthy PBT market. Fears are being voiced, however, regarding the possibility that growth in the coming year could fall short of last year’s robust figures. The sharp downward trend in feedstock costs continues to be a feature of the European market in January, and there is some expectation that PBT prices could respond with a small dip, following an extended period of very stable pricing. In Asia and China, PBT resin prices moved lower under pressure from sharply weaker feedstock prices and continuing oversupply.
Polyester PolyolsThe January market has seen a reasonable start, following the destocking in December which has led to a need for replenishing inventory this month. Significant downward pressure from plummeting raw material prices, especially benzene, has led buyers to call for sizeable decreases in polyester polyol prices. Polyols have also come under similar price pressure in Europe with the same factors at work in this region, and with a less bullish demand scenario also weighing on some sectors of the market. The Chinese market has softened in the midst of bearish raw materials along with seasonally slow demand.
PTMEGThe year has begun well for the North American PTMEG sector, with buyers looking to replenish inventory following the year-end stock reduction programs. Quarter one contract prices have dipped 4-5c/lb. The European PTMEG market has softened again in quarter one, although to a lesser extent than the BDO contract price. January volumes are reported to be healthy. The Chinese spandex PTMEG market was fairly weak and producers made attempts to maintain prices at a stable level. However this was not enough to prevent high end prices from sliding down due to restricted demand.
SpandexThe Chinese spandex market continued to weaken in January. Several grades of spandex continued a downward trend and decreased significantly. At the end of the year, demand in the downstream weaving sector was weak. Spandex producers promoted sales volume actively by lowering offers, due to increasing sales pressure. The market is largely weak, and expectations for the short term remain negative. The market is not expected to improve prior to the Spring Festival.
* = Small consumer priceN.A. = Not Available † = Provisional
Information contained in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however no responsibility nor liability will be accepted by Tecnon OrbiChem for commercial decisions claimed to have been based on the content of the report.
Reproduction of any part of this work by any process whatsoever without written permission of Tecnon OrbiChem is strictly forbidden.
1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG
3 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG
4 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
FRONT PAGEPRICE MONITORECONOMIC NEWSINDUSTRY NEWSFEEDSTOCKSBUTANEBUTADIENE North America Europe Asia
NATURAL GASPROPYLENE OXIDE North America Europe China
MALEIC ANHYDRIDE North America West Europe China
BDO & DERIVATIVES1,4 BUTANEDIOL North America West Europe Asia
PBT North America West Europe Asia China
POLYESTER POLYOLS North America West Europe
PTMEG North America West Europe China
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ECONOMIC NEWS
GDP in the US increased at an annual rate of 5% in the third quarter of 2014, according to a “third estimate” by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The “second” estimate had been 3.9%. In the second quarter, real GDP increased by 4.6%.
Economic activity in the US continued to expand in October and November, according to the Federal Reserve’s December Beige Book. General consumer spending grew in most of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts, employment was reported to have increased and manufacturing activity was strong, particularly in the automotive and aerospace industries. Homes and the construction of new homes expanded overall but some variations were noted across different sectors and regions. Bank lending was also said to have improved and tourism reports remained positive.
Production and new orders in the US manufacturing sector continued to grow solidly in December but both rates of expansion were at their weakest since January 2014. The seasonally adjusted Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 54.8 in November to 53.9 in December. Uncertainty over the global economic outlook contributed to the slower production growth and softer new business gains.
Total nonfarm payroll employment in the US rose by 252,000 in December, and unemployment fell to 5.6%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
More than 1.5 million light vehicles were sold in the US in December, this is an 11% increase compared to December 2013. The seasonally adjusted annualised selling rate (SAAR) for December was 16.5 million, marking a 6% increase compared to the 2013 SAAR. According to Automotive News, this is the fifth consecutive year US deliveries have increased after hitting a 27-year low of 10.4 million in 2009. However, analysts have cautioned the last five years of rapid recovery within the industry cannot be sustained and it will undoubtedly slowdown in 2015. It is expected the 2015 SAAR will grow slightly to around 16.7 million.
Builder confidence in the US market for newly built single-family homes fell by only one point in December on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Growing confidence among consumers was said to be fuelling optimism among builders for 2015 with many reporting an increase in buyer traffic and signed contracts. After a slow start to the year, the HMI has remained above the 50 point benchmark for six consecutive months.
Building permits for privately owned housing in the US were issued at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,035,000 in November, according to the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This was 5.2% above the revised October rate of 1,080,000 and 1.2% above the November 2013 estimate of 1,037,000. Privately owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,028,000, which is 1.6% below the revised October figure of 1,045,000 and 7% below the November 2013 rate of 1,015,000. Sales of new single family houses in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 596,000, this is 2.9% below the revised October estimate of 614,000 but 4.5% above the November 2013 rate of 826,000.
Consumer confidence in the US on the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index posted 93.6 in December – the highest level since January 2007. November’s index had been 88.8 points. The Conference Board also reported that consumer confidence increased in December with the Consumer Confidence Index at 92.6, up from 91.0 in November. Confidence was said to have grown due to improving job and wage prospects and falling gasoline prices. Consumers were also said to be at their most optimistic about the long-term prospects for the national economy for the first time this decade. Industry data suggests that real consumer expenditure will grow by 3% in 2015.
Output growth, new orders and employment in the Eurozone manufacturing sector remained close to stagnation in December, with the final seasonally adjusted Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 50.6 in December, slightly up from November’s rate of 50.1. December’s output growth fell to its slowest pace in 18 months but there was a slight improvement in new orders, which rose for the first time in four months. The growth rate for new export orders also rose to a three-month high. The average PMI reading for the
1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG
5 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
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NATURAL GASPROPYLENE OXIDE North America Europe China
MALEIC ANHYDRIDE North America West Europe China
BDO & DERIVATIVES1,4 BUTANEDIOL North America West Europe Asia
PBT North America West Europe Asia China
POLYESTER POLYOLS North America West Europe
PTMEG North America West Europe China
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final quarter of 2014 was 50.4, this was the worst growth outcome since economic recovery started in Q3 2013.
Annual inflation in the Eurozone was expected to be -0.2% in December, down from 0.3% in November, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat.
Employment in the Eurozone increased by 0.2% and by 0.3% in the EU28 in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, according to Eurostat. Employment also increased by 0.6% in the Eurozone and 0.9% in the EU28, compared to the same quarter of the previous year. In November, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 11.5% in November, stable compared to October 2014 but down from 11.9% in November 2013. The EU28 unemployment rate was 10% in November, down from 10.1% in October 2014 and down from 10.7% in November 2013.
GDP rose by 0.2% and by 0.3% in the EU28 during the third quarter of 2014, compared to the previous quarter, according to a second estimate by Eurostat. In the second quarter of 2014, GDP grew by 0.1% in the Eurozone and 0.2% in the EU28. Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.8% in the Eurozone and by 1.3% in the EU28 in the third quarter of 2014 compared to the same period in 2013.
New passenger car registrations in the EU excluding Malta were 953,886 in November, up by 1.4% compared to November 2013 and marking 15 consecutive months of growth, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). January to November new passenger car registrations in the EU totalled 11,600,383 units – up 5.7% compared to the same period in 2013. In November, there was growth in the major markets: Spain (+18.1%), the UK (+9.4%), Italy (+4.3%) and Germany (+2.6%). France remained stable with 1.1% growth compared to November 2013.
The UK auto industry finished 2014 with its 34th consecutive month of growth as annual sales climbed 9.3% to more than 2.4 million units sold. According to Wards Auto, this is the best result since 2004. The commercial-vehicle market grew 11.0% to 363,155 units in 2014, the highest level since 2007. Car sales beat the European Union average of 5.7% growth, making the UK the second-largest market in the EU after Germany.
Operating conditions in China’s manufacturing sector continued to deteriorate in December. The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index marginally fell from November’s reading of 50.0 to 49.6 in December. Output and new orders fell but new export business continued to grow in December and at a slightly quicker rate than in November.
The production and sales of new passenger cars in China were 1,834,600 and 1,775,300 units respectively in November, up 4.4% and 3.9% compared to the previous month, and up 2.9% and 4.7% year on year. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that in the first 11 months of 2014, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 17,978,300 and 17,639,700 units respectively, up 10.3% and 9.2% year on year.
Sales of passenger cars in India grew by 2.7% in April-November 2014 compared to the same period in 2013. Just under 2 million passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three wheelers and two wheelers were produced in November, up by 12.4% from November 2013.
GDP in Taiwan grew by 3.8% in the third quarter of 2014 compared to the third quarter of 2013, according to advance estimates by the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS). GDP is predicted to have grown by 3.4% for the whole of 2014 and to increase by 2.5% in 2015. Real GDP growth rates for the first and second quarters of 2014 have been revised to 3.4% and 3.9% respectively. They had previously been estimated at 3.24% and 3.74 %.
Car sales in South Korea were 127,950 units in November, up by 6.6% compared to November 2013, according to the Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association. Total sales from January to November were 1.3 million, up 4.0% compared to the same period last year.
1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG
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FRONT PAGEPRICE MONITORECONOMIC NEWSINDUSTRY NEWSFEEDSTOCKSBUTANEBUTADIENE North America Europe Asia
NATURAL GASPROPYLENE OXIDE North America Europe China
MALEIC ANHYDRIDE North America West Europe China
BDO & DERIVATIVES1,4 BUTANEDIOL North America West Europe Asia
PBT North America West Europe Asia China
POLYESTER POLYOLS North America West Europe
PTMEG North America West Europe China
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INDUSTRY NEWS
BASF has announced plans to expand BDO capacity at Geismar, Louisiana by 10%. The expansion, which is scheduled to be completed in 2016, will take the company’s global BDO capacity to 670ktpa. The Geismar site currently produces 135ktpa. BASF is also deliberating further measures to strengthen and expand the BDO value chain at Geismar, by optimising efficiency and infrastructure. BASF is also due to complete its 100ktpa joint venture with Xinjiang Markor this year. BASF also plans to expand its polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) value chain over the next four years. Existing plants in Ludwigshafen, Germany and Geismar will be revamped, whilst PVP technology will be introduced at BASF’s Shanghai site, resulting in glabal increase in PVP capacity of up to 6000 tons.
BASF SE and Shell have reached an agreement for the sale of BASF’s 50% stake in the Singapore joint venture ELLBA Eastern to Shell. The joint venture produces styrene monomer and propylene oxide. This move does not affect the beleaguered PO/SM joint venture plant in Moerdijk.
Polyester polyol producer Stepan is to sell its Specialty PU Systems business to J6 Polymers, LLC. The products associated with this business are produced at its Millsdale, Illinois plant and third party toll manufacturers. The company says that the sale will allow its polymer business segment to redeploy resources to improve growth and innovation in its line of polyols for CASE applications.
FEEDSTOCKS
Butane
The North Sea butanes contract index for December was set at $524/ton fob, a reduction of $15/ton from November – far too little as things turned out. Availability was good in the large cargo market. Spot prices fell from around 89% of naphtha to 84%, a level at which butanes have again become attractive to petrochemical buyers. However, naphtha, together with crude oil, has dived in value. At the beginning of December butanes, at close to 90% of naphtha, traded at around $550/ton cif. By the 19th, naphtha was down to $470/ton and large cargo butanes to around $395ton cif, a fall of around 28%.
In the Mediterranean region, Sonatrach reduced its contract price by $20/ton to $515/ton fob for December. Coaster butane was very short early in the month and traded at up to 123% of naphtha. Availability was barely enough to cover contract commitments. A 2,500-ton cargo of butanes is booked for shipping from Chesapeake on the US East Coast to Morocco in late December. This follows a 3,500-ton parcel shipped from Immingham in the UK late in November.
Saudi Aramco reduced its contract price for January by $100/ton at $470/ton in response to falling crude. For December, a decrease of $30/ton was agreed, but as crude oil weakened, discounts for spot cargoes relative to contract grew to $140-150/ton in the second week of December.
Butanes prices at Mont Belvieu continued the downward slide led by crude oil in December. November average prices were 105.4 c/gal for n-butane and 106.5 c/gal for iso-butane. By 19 December prices for both isomers were down to 74-75 c/gal, a fall of 23 c/gal (23.7%) for normal butane and 24 c/gal (24.5%) for iso-butane.
Butadiene
North America
The first nomination for February’s contract price has come in at a decrease of 6c/lb, with expectations that the outcome could be anywhere from minus 3-6c/lb. January was also nominated down by 3-6c/lb, with the outcome being a 6c/lb decrease. December’s contract was split but all four suppliers settled in the end for a 3-cent reduction putting one at 41 cents, two at 43 and one at 49 c/lb for December. An estimated weighted average price for December is 43.3 c/lb. US market availability is reported to be long, whilst demand has been slow.
1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG
7 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
FRONT PAGEPRICE MONITORECONOMIC NEWSINDUSTRY NEWSFEEDSTOCKSBUTANEBUTADIENE North America Europe Asia
NATURAL GASPROPYLENE OXIDE North America Europe China
MALEIC ANHYDRIDE North America West Europe China
BDO & DERIVATIVES1,4 BUTANEDIOL North America West Europe Asia
PBT North America West Europe Asia China
POLYESTER POLYOLS North America West Europe
PTMEG North America West Europe China
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Europe
In Europe, the January butadiene contract slumped by €100/ton, following December’s settlement which was down by €55/ton at €775/ton ddp. At the time, this was seen as a fair compromise with demand weak, supply long and naphtha prices falling. Spot prices collapsed over during December, falling to $460-465/ton in the third week of December, down by more than 25% in a month. Demand is no stronger and supply has been lengthened by the re-start of LyondellBasell’s 240ktpa butadiene unit at Wesseling.
Asia
Butadiene in Northeast Asia traded at around $825/ton on 9 January, down from $950/ton cfr in the second week of December, pulled down by the crash in crude oil and naphtha prices. In Korea Kumho is to cut the operating rate of its 560,000 tpa SBR plant at Ulsan from 85% to 65% starting in the fourth week of December. Chinese tyre producers have cut production in response to US anti-dumping duty proposals.
PROPYLENE OXIDE
North America
Snug availability characterises the North American propylene oxide market in January, and demand has bounced back to healthy levels following the end of year slow-down. The major end use sectors are running well. MPG is seasonally strong in the de-icing sector, although the UPR sector is languishing in its low demand season.
The tight availability of propylene oxide has led to price increase announcements for downstream derivatives, including MPG and polyether polyols. It is unclear at present whether these will be passed through to customers, considering the steep reductions in propylene costs in December and January. Some expect that rollovers may be a more likely outcome.
Steep falls in propylene contract prices have sent formula based propylene oxide contracts down by 8c/lb in January, and a further large reduction is indicated since the January propylene settlement has come in at minus 12c/lb. This will equate to a formula based reduction of just under 10c/lb.
First quarter PO supply will continue to be constrained as a result of a number of planned maintenance shutdowns.
- - 21,778 China 10,016 - - 11,281 Indonesia 18,890
1,051 1,959 10,943 Colombia 10,938 226 2,201 2,783 Brazil 2,944
- - 1,999 Venezuela 8,197 18 2,541 242 Others 413
179,975 155,844 Total 19,027
$/ton figures are calculated from customs data and may not reflect market prices
Europe
There has been a degree of easing in the European propylene oxide supply situation in the past few weeks, due to the dip in demand at the end of the year, as buyers looked to end the year with low inventory. In addition, the MPG market has been fairly lacklustre in terms of demand into the de-icing sector, with the winter weather so far remaining rather mild. Nevertheless, supply is still tight, and, there is a real concern
1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG
8 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
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NATURAL GASPROPYLENE OXIDE North America Europe China
MALEIC ANHYDRIDE North America West Europe China
BDO & DERIVATIVES1,4 BUTANEDIOL North America West Europe Asia
PBT North America West Europe Asia China
POLYESTER POLYOLS North America West Europe
PTMEG North America West Europe China
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EUROPEAN UNION EXPORTS
(1,000 Metric Tons)Month 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014
$/ton
PROPYLENE OXIDE
Jan 5.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 1,902 Feb 0.4 1.6 0.6 3.4 1,816 Mar 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 1,966 Apr 0.5 0.4 0.4 2.5 1,866 May 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 2,633 Jun 0.4 1.5 0.4 0.5 2,269 Jul 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 2,192 Aug 4.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 2,075 Sep 2.3 0.5 4.5 0.5 2,028 Oct 0.4 0.3 0.5 - - Nov 0.3 0.5 0.4 - - Dec 0.3 0.3 0.3 - -
The figures in this table are the total, summed over all 27 EU countries, of trade with countries outside the EU. Readers should note, however, that some EU countries may havesuppressed data if trade for this product is commercially sensitive, so it is possible that there is under-reporting in the above figures.$/ton figures are calculated from customs data and may not reflect market prices
(76.4)7.0 9.2 16.1
(56.3) 31.1 Jan-Dec% Change
100.8 5.9 8.1 9.0 1,946 15.1
(61.2) 37.7 11.5 Jan-Sep% Change
EUROPEAN UNION EXPORTS
(1,000 Metric Tons)Month 2012 2013 20132014 2014
$/ton$/ton
PROPYLENE OXIDE
Jan 0.4 0.4 1,919 0.3 1,902 Feb 1.6 0.6 1,933 3.4 1,816 Mar 0.4 0.5 1,835 0.4 1,966 Apr 0.4 0.4 3,135 2.5 1,866 May 0.3 0.6 1,854 0.4 2,633 Jun 1.5 0.4 2,009 0.5 2,269 Jul 0.4 0.3 3,447 0.5 2,192 Aug 0.3 0.4 1,891 0.6 2,075 Sep 0.5 4.5 1,680 0.5 2,028 Oct 0.3 0.5 2,088 - - Nov 0.5 0.4 2,106 - - Dec 0.3 0.3 2,144 - -
The figures in this table are the total, summed over all 27 EU countries, of trade with countries outside the EU. Readers should note, however, that some EU countries may havesuppressed data if trade for this product is commercially sensitive, so it is possible that there is under-reporting in the above figures.$/ton figures are calculated from customs data and may not reflect market prices
7.0 9.2 (56.3) 31.1
Jan-Dec% Change
5.9 1,896 9.0 1,946 (61.2) 37.7 11.5
Jan-Sep% Change
8.1 2.6 (3.5)
that, should demand take off significantly in the next few weeks, the short supply situation will intensify again and put pressure on derivative markets, as was the case in the latter half of 2014.
As for PO production, Shell’s Moerdijk PO production was expected to come on back on-stream by the end of 2014, although the Ellba joint venture between Shell and BASF is still off-line, and is expected to remain out of the picture until late 2015/early 2016, although no date has yet been defined.
Formula based PO contracts have moved down by €96/ton on the basis of the €120/ton decrease in the January propylene contract settlement.
There has been talk of an increase in propylene oxide formula prices for 2015, with fees increasing by as much as €200/ton, but this has yet to be confirmed.
13,145 1,863 54,570 United States 34,045 - - 78 Others 191
54,648 34,236 Total 13,145
The figures in this table are the total, summed over all 27 EU countries, of trade with countries outside the EU. Readers should note, however, that some EU countries may havesuppressed data if trade for this product is commercially sensitive, so it is possible that there is under-reporting in the above figures.$/ton figures are calculated from customs data and may not reflect market prices
EUROPEAN UNION IMPORTS
(1,000 Metric Tons)Month 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014
$/ton
PROPYLENE OXIDE
Jan - - 4.3 2.6 1,683 Feb 2.7 5.4 2.0 2.6 1,815 Mar 2.8 2.6 - 2.6 1,803 Apr 2.9 7.5 11.6 5.0 1,815 May 5.6 5.2 2.7 1.6 1,381 Jun 6.3 5.0 4.4 9.4 1,899 Jul 5.5 - 2.7 9.9 1,958 Aug 5.5 - - 7.7 1,763 Sep 1.6 4.7 6.5 13.1 1,863 Oct - 2.5 1.3 - - Nov 2.8 5.6 2.6 - - Dec - 5.1 - - -
The figures in this table are the total, summed over all 27 EU countries, of trade with countries outside the EU. Readers should note, however, that some EU countries may havesuppressed data if trade for this product is commercially sensitive, so it is possible that there is under-reporting in the above figures.$/ton figures are calculated from customs data and may not reflect market prices
296.7 43.6 38.2 35.7 22.1 (12.5)
Jan-Dec% Change
430.2 30.4 34.2 54.6 1,840 33.0 (7.7) 12.6 59.6
Jan-Sep% Change
EUROPEAN UNION IMPORTS
(1,000 Metric Tons)Month 2012 2013 20132014 2014
$/ton$/ton
PROPYLENE OXIDE
Jan - 4.3 1,860 2.6 1,683 Feb 5.4 2.0 2,014 2.6 1,815 Mar 2.6 - 59,850 2.6 1,803 Apr 7.5 11.6 1,867 5.0 1,815 May 5.2 2.7 1,686 1.6 1,381 Jun 5.0 4.4 1,699 9.4 1,899 Jul - 2.7 1,783 9.9 1,958 Aug - - 26,700 7.7 1,763 Sep 4.7 6.5 1,736 13.1 1,863 Oct 2.5 1.3 1,827 - - Nov 5.6 2.6 1,707 - - Dec 5.1 - - - -
The figures in this table are the total, summed over all 27 EU countries, of trade with countries outside the EU. Readers should note, however, that some EU countries may havesuppressed data if trade for this product is commercially sensitive, so it is possible that there is under-reporting in the above figures.$/ton figures are calculated from customs data and may not reflect market prices
The figures in this table are the total, summed over all 27 EU countries, of trade with countries outside the EU. Readers should note, however, that some EU countries may havesuppressed data if trade for this product is commercially sensitive, so it is possible that there is under-reporting in the above figures.$/ton figures are calculated from customs data and may not reflect market prices
1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG
10 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
FRONT PAGEPRICE MONITORECONOMIC NEWSINDUSTRY NEWSFEEDSTOCKSBUTANEBUTADIENE North America Europe Asia
NATURAL GASPROPYLENE OXIDE North America Europe China
MALEIC ANHYDRIDE North America West Europe China
BDO & DERIVATIVES1,4 BUTANEDIOL North America West Europe Asia
PBT North America West Europe Asia China
POLYESTER POLYOLS North America West Europe
PTMEG North America West Europe China
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China
The Chinese PO market trended upward in early January. Inventory pressure was a feature of the market and downstream demand was weak leading to a slow trading environment. However, producers were actively pushing for higher prices, although buyers were cautious and tended to hold off purchasing. The market proceeded to drop slowly in the second week of January, largely as a result of slow demand coupled with ample supply with the arrival os imported material to East China and as well as the steady operation of domestic PO plants.
Propylene oxide prices were heard at Rmb11200-11300/ton and Rmb11400-11500/ton in East China. Shandong and North China PO prices were reported at Rmb10700-10900/ton and Rmb11000-11200/ton.
China Spot Propylene Oxide Prices - December 2014 (Rmb/Ton)
East China North China Northeast China (del) (exw) (exw) 12300-12500 12350-12400 12100-12300
China Spot Propylene Oxide Prices – January 2015 (Rmb/Ton)
East China North China Northeast China (del) (exw) (exw) 11200-11400 1110-11300 10950-11000
Note: Statistics were based on materials in bulk.
Imported propylene oxide has plummeted in January to $1580-1700/ton.
1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG
11 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
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NATURAL GASPROPYLENE OXIDE North America Europe China
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NATURAL GAS
Natural gas prices in North America responded to somewhat warmer temperatures, dipping back during the week ending 21 January.
Henry Hub spot prices fell from $3.13/mmBtu on 14 January to $2.94/mmBtu on 21 January. Spot prices had reached $4.39/mmBtu on 19 November, dipping to $4.09/mmBtu by the end of November. By 10 December, prices were down to $3.61/MMBtu.
The NYMEX February contract fell from $3.233/mmBtu at the beginning of the week, to $2.974/mmBtu, despite the forecast for large storage withdrawals of over 200 Bcf. The 12 month strip closed at $2.979/mmBtu.
Natural gas consumption was down across all areas hitting 80Bcf on 18 January, according to Bentek Energy’s figures. Demand was 6% lower year-on-year, with residential and commercial sector off-take down by 29% on the previous week. Power burn was down 17% during the week, but 5% up year-on-year, and it reported to be heading towards record levels.
Net gas withdrawal for the week ending 16 January was 216Bcf, which represented a 40Bcf increase on last year’s net withdrawal figures. Working gas inventories were recorded at 2637 Bcf on 16 January, up 8.2% year-on-year, and 5.5% down on the five year average.
The US gas market is well supplied, with stocks above the level seen 3 years previously, according to EIA data, but remain lower than their 5 year average levels.
2015 has seen an increase in natural gas supply to New England and New York, coming from domestic pipeline, imported liquefied natural gas which is re-gasified and then dispatched from the importing terminal, and pipeline imports from Canada.
MALEIC ANHYDRIDE
North America
The North American maleic anhydride market was better balanced in early January with good production and a reasonable start to the year in demand terms. All producers were understood to be running, although it was not clear at what levels some smaller manufacturers were operating. Other major US producers
1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG
12 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
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report high operating rates. Some ratcheting back of production by one or more US producers is expected in order to avoid oversupply. Exports of maleic anhydride from the US to Europe have resumed, picking up to around the levels seen in 2013 in July 2014; and exceeding 2013 levels in August, September and October 2014.
217 1,577 2,841 Others 2,691 141 1,651 1,744 South Korea 2,736
- - 1,212 Canada 140 20 1,640 1,180 Germany 679
- - 880 Brazil 1,760 7,857 8,006 Total 378
$/ton figures are calculated from customs data and may not reflect market prices
Europe
The key features of the European maleic market in January, as compared with last quarter are that production is good and demand is sluggish, while imports from Asia at low prices continue, despite the low value of the Euro. European prices have fallen from December to January in the spot market and are dropping from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2015 in the contract market. A provisional assessment in the price monitor shows a drop in the price for the first quarter of 2015 of €70-100/ton.
486 1,791 5,230 Bosnia & Herzegovi 4,096 1,052 1,438 4,419 United States 5,593
687 1,574 3,074 Taiwan 1,980 479 1,639 2,889 South Korea 1,204 134 1,590 1,559 China 507 38 1,832 1,095 Others 2,026
18,266 15,406 Total 2,876
The figures in this table are the total, summed over all 27 EU countries, of trade with countries outside the EU. Readers should note, however, that some EU countries may havesuppressed data if trade for this product is commercially sensitive, so it is possible that there is under-reporting in the above figures.$/ton figures are calculated from customs data and may not reflect market prices
The figures in this table are the total, summed over all 27 EU countries, of trade with countries outside the EU. Readers should note, however, that some EU countries may havesuppressed data if trade for this product is commercially sensitive, so it is possible that there is under-reporting in the above figures.$/ton figures are calculated from customs data and may not reflect market prices
China
Chinese maleic anhydride prices have been spiralling down in the past month with a temporary recovery in late December, mainly tracking the trend in feedstock benzene prices. By 12 January, spot prices for domestic maleic anhydride declined to Rmb6200-6900/ton ($998-1111/ton), down by Rmb2000-2300/ton as compared with those in early December. Downstream demand into UPR remained weak in general due to the seasonal effect and on-going slowing economic growth.
1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG
15 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
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1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES
North America
As expected, the North American BDO market has started to see further price reduction in the first quarter. This is based on a number of factors. One of these, in common with many other raw materials, is the decrease in the energy and feedstock costs which have dived significantly, impacting on BDO raw materials including propylene and methanol.
Another factor is the continuing softness of the Asian market, as well as the competitive environment in the North American market with competition for market share remaining an important element.
Buyers had had a strong expectation that the market was due for a sizeable decrease and producers faced significant pressure to shave off a fairly large amount from the quarter four price.
So far, decreases ranging from 5-12c/lb have been reported, with the majority falling within the 6-10/lb range. The price range has been moved down by 8c/lb in, to show an average of reported outcomes. Whilst one producer was unwilling to move down more than 6c/lb, others adopted a more aggressive pricing policy. Some reported decreases of 8-10c/lb, whilst on the buy side there were reports of prices falling by as much as 12c/lb, but this has not been a widespread outcome.
Sources forecast a positive improvement in volume from the major downstream sectors in 2015. Two of the most buoyant sectors continue to be the thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) market and the polybutylene terephalate (PBT) market.
The latter saw a continuing improvement based on the growth in demand from the automotive sector during 2014, and there is every sign that this will continue in a similarly robust fashion this year, although some expect that growth could fall short of this year’s bullish market. December’s automotive industry sales figures have come in showing a very strong end to the year at plus 11% growth. Thermoplastic polyurethane demand showed an overall positive trend during 2014 albeit with some fluctuation from month to month.
There are reports this month that one supplier has been in the market for extra tonnage, indicating that there could be some form of supply problem, although no specific issues have been flagged up.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UNITED STATES, WEST EUROPE & CHINA
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
MALEIC ANHYDRIDE CONTRACT PRICESUS Dollars per Ton
1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG
16 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
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Low offers have been heard for imported Asian material into some parts of the US for drums, although the quantity of material is unknown, but is not thought to be significant.
The forecast for 2015 growth across all BDO applications is pegged at 3-4%; a similar level to 2014. The star performers of the market remain PBT and TPU which both contribute significant growth to the market, against other sectors which are more stagnant.
Europe
In Europe, similarly, reductions are being reported ranging from €50-80/ton with some suppliers offering more sizeable decreases than others. The BDO market comprises of numerous different production methods which use varying feedstocks, and the bearishness of certain feedstocks has a bearing on the level of reduction in BDO prices acceptable to each party. Whilst propylene based route has seen significant reduction, other raw materials have yet to show such a significant downturn, with methanol for example moving down by just €10/ton in quarter one/January.
Some buyers argued that decreases of €100/ton should be achievable this quarter based on the bearish feedstock markets, however, the largest reduction reported was €80/ton. Some producers were reportedly unwilling to go down to that level, despite the possibility of losing volumes.
Demand from the major end-use sectors is reported to be quite stable, with the PBT market targeting higher volumes, up to 3-4% over last year. This market saw reasonably good growth, albeit from a low basis, in 2014, based principally on the improvements in car sales in Europe. January is a significant month for the PBT sector, and it can determine the performance of the market on a longer term basis. The thermoplastic polyurethane market is reported to be steady, with January seeing the expected restocking activity.
The overall growth of the automotive market reached a level of 5.7% year on year, with a total of 12,550,771 new passenger cars registered in the EU according to the trade association the ACEA. This represented the first year of growth since 2007. December’s EU registrations grew 4.7% year on year. Spain saw 18.1% growth in 2014, the UK 9.3%, Italy 4.2% and Germany 2.9%. France saw just 0.3% growth.
Car sales are expected to grow further into next year according to industry analysts, although most remain cautious and do not expect that 2015 will see such a good level of growth as 2014. The fragile state of the European economy continues to weigh on this market.
1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG
17 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
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China
Although Chinese BDO prices continued to fall through November and December, more stability has been seen since late December. As the market has been underperforming, prices have almost dropped to cost line, and manufacturers have had a strong incentive to increase prices. In the middle of January, BDO prices are assessed at Rmb 9600-9700/ton. Many market participants do not consider that there is much room for BDO prices to fall further. BDO capacity utilization rates in January are reported to be steady. It is reported that Shaanxi Shanhua’s second 100ktpa unit stopped in the middle of January for 10-15days.
Demand for BDO has not picked up yet. Usually, prior to the Lunar New Year Holidays (18-24 February), there has been significant restocking. However, at this point in 2015, buyers are only purchasing on a hand to mouth basis. Nevertheless, as BDO prices stabilized somewhat this month, some suppliers predict that buying interest may pick up in late January or early February.
Maleic anhydride based BDO plants such as Sinopec Yizheng Chemical (100 ktpa), Nanjing Bluestar (110 ktpa), Shandong Shengli (13 ktpa), Zhejiang Huachen Energy (55 ktpa), Ningbo Jiangning Chemical (35 ktpa) and one Shanxi Sanwei MA based BDO line (75 ktpa) remain closed this month with no specific restart date having been announced.
2014-2015 H1, New BDO Plants in China (1,000 Metric Tons)
Company Location Capacity Start-Up Changlian Chemical Panjin (Liaoning) 150 Jan 2014 Shaanxi BDO Shanhua 2 Weinan (Shaanxi) 100 May 2014 Chongqing Chiyuan Chemical Chongqing (Chongqing) 60 May 2014 Guodian Younglight Chemical 1 Ningdong (Ningxia) 100 Sep 2014 Xinjiang Tianye Group 2 Shihezi (Xinjiang) 60 Dec 2014 Dongyuan Science & Tech Co Wuhai (Inner Mongolia) 100 Q1 2015 Xinjiang Blue Ridge Tunhe Tunhe (Xinjiang) 100 Q1 2015 Total 670
Looking at new capacity expansions, Dongyuan Science & Tech’s 100 ktpa BDO project in Inner Mongolia is delayed to an unspecified date in the first quarter 2015. In addition, Xinjiang Blue Ridge Tunhe’s BDO capacity (100 ktpa) start-up has also been postponed until after the Lunar New Year Holidays. Some market participants expect that the true impact from both BDO capacity expansions may hit the market from the second quarter 2015, providing both plants do come on-stream as planned.
The outlook for the second wave of BDO capacity expansions in China remains unclear, as some BDO capacity expansions have been postponed continuously through 2014 to early 2015. As two new BDO capacity expansions are delayed to February or March 2015, there will be less pressure than initially forecast from the new capacity expansions in the coming months.
Looking at the downstream market, demand for PBT continued to slow down through December to January. Transaction volumes are reported to be small. As the Lunar New Year holidays are approaching, small and medium sized compounders and moulders may start to cut back, or shut production lines from the end of January. This indicates that demand will weaken further during the rest of January and February, with market activity forecast to be low. Operating rates for PBT resin in January are reported to be quite low.
Demand for PTMEG remained at unchanged levels in January. Due to the upcoming holidays, spandex manufacturers may start to reduce utilization rates from late January. As a result, overall demand for spandex may remain soft in February.
1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG
18 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
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China BDO Prices - December 2014 (Rmb/Ton)
East China North China South China Northeast China Highest 10500 10600 10600 10400 Lowest 10300 10400 10400 10200 Note: Statistics were based on materials in bulk.
China BDO Spot Prices – January 2015 (Rmb/Ton)
East China South China North China Wenzhou Domestic materials(bulk) 9700-9800 9800-9900 9800-9900 9600-9700 Imports (bulk) 11300-12300 11300-12300 11300-12300 11300-12300 Imports (drummed) 12700-14000 12700-14000 12700-14000 12700-14000
China BDO Imports November 2014 (Metric Tons)
Country Nov Jan-Nov Jan-Nov 2014 2014 2013 Japan 121 1,461 1,607 Holland 64 8,828 2,408 Malaysia 1,291 5,587 5,271 South Korea 182 3,794 896 Taiwan Province 116 13,809 20,124 Saudi Arabia 0 1,030 7,045 Germany 0 0 418 Total 1,774 34,509 37,769
1,4-BUTANEDIOL & DERIVATIVES INCLUDING MALEIC ANHYDRIDE, PROPYLENE OXIDE, POLYESTER POLYOLS, PBT AND PTMEG
19 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
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PBT (POLYBUTYLENE TEREPHTHALATE)
North America
Strong automotive sales in North America along with sustained healthy demand from the electrics and electronics sectors are maintaining a healthy PBT market. December’s automotive industry sales figures have come in showing a very strong end to the year at plus 11% growth. Fears are being voiced however, regarding the possibility that growth in the coming year could fall short of last year’s robust figures. Some analysts see that the pace of growth is unsustainable, but even if the pace does slow down, it is still expected to ensure a reasonably healthy PBT sector in 2015.
One US PBT supplier forecast that growth for PBT could remain at a similar level to this year’s sales pattern. 2014 saw sustained volumes throughout the year, and plants reported to be running at high rates to meet domestic demand.
The threat of an increase in interest from the oversupplied Asian market in exporting material to North America remains in the background, but some potential buyers are happier to purchase tried and trusted US produced material, and the barriers to entry into the US market remain difficult for Asian importers to surmount.
PBT’s major raw material costs have taken a downward turn, with BDO contract prices reportedly down by between 8-12c/lb for quarter one. Paraxylene continues to trend downwards, leading to lower PTA prices. The North American PTA formula price fell by 6.36 c/lb in November. December formula prices were also down, in line with a 6c/lb decrease in the paraxylene contract price for December.
West Europe
The sharp downward trend in feedstock costs continues to be a feature of the European market in January, and there is some expectation that PBT prices could respond with a small dip, following an extended period of very stable pricing. As yet, there are some reports of minor adjustments of around €20/ton, whilst other reports still point to a stable price.
January is reported to be shaping up well in terms of demand, and suppliers see this as a positive signal for the year as a whole. Off-take from the automotive sector took a slight downward turn in quarter four, in line with the dip in the car sales, following a strong first half of the year. The electric and electronic sector has been rather stable, and there is no noticeable change in January. Projections for the year point to an overall PBT growth rate of 4-5%, with the proviso that should the European economy weaken further in 2015, this level may not be achievable.
The feedstock markets have softened considerably in the wake of the tumbling oil and energy markets. BDO fourth quarter contract prices are settling at discounts of €50-80/ton. This is the result of falling feedstock costs and pressure from an oversupplied global BDO market. West European PTA contract prices fell by an average of €93/ton in November and followed by a smaller reduction of €33/ton in December. West European DMT prices for November fell around €90/ton resulting in prices in the €790-854/ton range, followed by a €32/ton reduction in December.
Asia
In South Korea, transaction prices for imported PBT in mid-January continued to drop, reaching $1500-1600/ton cfr compared to December’s $1620-1700/ton cfr.
Demand for PBT compounding has not shown much improvement from December to January. Compounders in South Korea maintained utilisation rates at normal levels. Expectations for demand recovery remain low, in line with the slow growth in the South Korean economy index. In January, The Bank of Korea revised its 2015 GDP growth rates from 3.9% to 3.4% in response to the poor performance of the economy in the fourth quarter 2014.
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There is still some confusion amongst PBT compounders due to the uncertainty of the upstream markets. Some PBT compounders saw no clear indication of where raw material prices might bottom out, and this caused the PBT chain to delay purchasing.
In Taiwan, as a result of the weak trend in crude oil prices, overseas customers still tended to take a wait-and-see stance, purchasing material on a hand-to-mouth basis. This purchasing pattern is very likely to dominate the PBT market for the rest of January and into February.
Due to the ongoing severe competition with Chinese PBT producers, there is significant pressure coming from low- priced Chinese PBT, particularly into the South Korean market. Consequently, one PBT base resin producer in Taiwan dropped its offer prices. Demand from India is still reported to be at a reasonable level in January.
Shinkong’s PBT base resin plant continued to maintain operating rates at 90-100% through December to January.
Note on Asia pricing:
In recent months, severe overcapacity in the Chinese domestic market has depressed Chinese pricing below international levels. As a result, the flow of PBT resin from Taiwan to China, which historically has been the basis for the Asian price quote in the Price Monitor, has all but ceased. Without any actual deals to track, it is not possible to publish an accurate price range based on confirmed trade. We are reviewing whether this is the correct option, or whether we should base the price assessment on bid/offer levels only. We are also reviewing possible changes to the price assessment basis to reflect the changing trade flows in Northeast Asia; for example, whether to publish prices on an fob China basis to reflect the increasing volumes being exported from China, or on a cfr Korea basis to reflect the fact that currently Korea is the main importing market. At present, the situation is in transition. For the time being, therefore, the quote in the Price Monitor (see page 2) is shown as Not Available, and instead we are tracking the cfr Korea price in the text each month.
China
PBT demand continued to slow down throughout December and into January. Transaction volumes were reported to be smaller than the previous month’s. Historically, before a long holiday, there has been a surge of restocking ahead of the holidays, but, due to the weak tendency of crude oil prices, buyers are only purchasing on a hand-to-mouth basis.
Pressurized by weak PTA prices as well as poor demand, Chinese domestic PBT transaction prices dropped to Rmb9000-9900/ton ddp in mid-January from Rmb10000-11000/ton ddp in early December.
As the Lunar New Year Holidays (18 to 24 February) are approaching, an increasing number of small and medium sized compounders and moulders may start cutting back or shutting down production lines from the end of this month. Many tend to take long holidays ahead of Lunar New Year holidays. This indicates that demand may weaken further during the rest of January and February with market activity forecast to be low.
In the past there was a high level of expectation that demand and pricing would increase strongly after the Lunar New Year holidays, but many market participants indicated that the outlook for the Chinese domestic market is still uncertain. However, some argue that raw materials may bottom out in February, and this could result in a certain level of demand recovery from March. In addition, customers have been purchasing small volumes in recent months. As a result, a turning point for the Chinese PBT industry in terms of both price and demand could ensue from March.
PBT operating rates remain low in January. Sinopec Yizheng’s 80ktpa PBT plant was running at normal rates this month after the closure of its 20ktpa PBT line. Fujian Meizhou Bay restarted its 60 ktpa PBT production line in December. Yingkou Kanghui Petrochemical is still only running one line (80 ktpa) at normal rates this month while its second line (80 ktpa) remains down.
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Looking at raw material price trends, spurred by weakening crude oil prices, domestic spot PTA prices decreased to Rmb4400-4450/ton in mid-January from Rmb5400-5450/ton in early December. Prices for imported material are lower at around $560-580/ton. BDO prices continued to drop to Rmb9500-9700/ton in the middle of January from Rmb9800-10200/ton in early December due to poor demand. As many BDO suppliers attempted to increase offer prices, many market participants assess that there is limited room for BDO prices to fall further. As two new BDO capacity expansions are delayed to February or March 2015, there will be less pressure from new capacity expansions in the coming months. Most BDO producers in China maintained operating rates at low levels in January.
Many market players in the PBT industry predict that overall operating rates in 2015 may remain at a similar level to 2014 as many producers are aware of the importance of controlling utilization rates in line with a the lack of confidence from end-users.
New PBT Plants In China 2013-15 (1,000 Metric Tons)
Company Location Capacity Start-Up Yingkou Kanghui (Hengli Group) Yingkou (Liaoning) 80 March 2013 Jiangyin Jihua (Sanfangxiang Group) Jiangyin (Jiangsu) 30 April 2013 Yingkou Kanghui (Hengli Group) Yingkou (Liaoning) 80 June 2013 Henan Kaixiang Chemicals Yima (Henan) 100 January 2014 Changchun Plastics Changshu (Jiangsu) 60 January 2014 Fujian Meizhou Bay Quanzhou (Fujian) 60 April 2014 Changchun Plastics Changshu (Jiangsu) 60 April 2014 Shandong Weijiao Group Weifang (Shandong) 60 September 2014 Wuxi Xingcheng New Material Wuxi (Jiangsu) 80 Q1 2015 Total 610
POLYESTER POLYOLS
North America
The January market has seen a reasonable start, following the destocking in December which has led to a need for replenishing inventory this month.
Significant downward pressure from plummeting raw material prices has led buyers to call for sizeable decreases in polyester polyol prices. The most notable pressure has come from the bearish benzene market which has followed through to US adipic acid costs. Whilst producers have worked hard to limit the reduction in pricing this month, the feedstock environment has led to reductions of around 3-6c/lb for aliphatic polyester polyols. Suppliers have reported lesser decreases for aromatic polyester polyols, although the level of decrease remains unclear.
Demand for aromatic polyester polyols is seasonally slow, with the construction sector now in its dormant phase. The opposite is true for the aliphatic sector which is reporting healthy demand from the flexible foam and automotive sectors. Demand is overall reported to be higher than it was a year ago in January, although producers admit that this came after a rather slow December.
The major raw material costs are all trending downwards in line with the bearish crude oil environment. Adipic acid has come under strong pressure from the drop in the US benzene price. Phthalic anhydride is down by 8c/lb in January, in line with the drop in the orthoxylene contract. DEG has decreased in January by 3c/lb.
Europe
Polyester polyols have also come under similar price pressure in Europe with the same factors at work in this region as reported in the North American market, and with a less bullish demand scenario also weighing on some sectors of the market.
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22 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
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Aliphatic polyester polyols have been reported at a decrease averaging €50/ton although there have been some variations. There has been significant pressure from the falling benzene/adipic acid market, and it is likely that some buyers have been holding back on purchasing in anticipation of potential further price decreases.
The aromatic polyester polyol sector is seasonally slow, although there has been more opportunity in Europe for extended building activity as the winter up to now has been exceptionally mild and suitable for construction. Pricing has moved down by approximately €50/ton, although some suppliers are reported to have been more aggressive than others in their pricing strategies. Some sellers have highlighted the need to retain margins at acceptable levels to encourage reinvestment in the industry, pointing out that if margins become less attractive, the industry would be likely to face a stagnant outlook. There is also an argument on the sell-side, that the full extent of feedstock price increases was not passed on during the bullish period of 2014, and there is therefore a reluctance to decrease by the full magnitude of feedstock decreases at this point in the year.
It is understood that a producer of aromatic polyester polyols by means of recycled PET has closed, and this will take some tonnage out of the market, although the capacity of the producer is not thought to be significant.
There has been a general downward trend in the major feedstock prices in January. Adipic acid prices have waned as a result of the tumbling benzene price, as the two are closely linked. DEG prices have softened during December. Phthalic anhydride formula based contract prices have fallen by €120/ton in January, reflecting the losses in the orthoxylene market.
China
The Chinese polyester polyol market has softened in the midst of bearish raw materials along with seasonally slow demand. Prices slid down by between Rmb200-800/ton.
Pure BG prices are reported at Rmb14700-15000/ton, whilst pure EG was assessed at Rmb13200-13500/ton in East China. BG/EG product was quoted at Rmb13800-14400/ton.
PTMEG
North America
The year has begun well for the North American PTMEG sector, with buyers looking to replenish inventory following the year-end stock reduction programs. The true test of demand will come later in the quarter, once the initial restocking period is over. Healthy growth is forecast for the thermoplastic polyurethane sector in 2015 at around 5%, which is largely in line with the previous year’s growth.
First quarter contracts have dipped, following the pattern of the BDO price but to a lesser extent. BDO prices decreased on average by 6-10/ton, whilst PTMEG prices have moved down by around 4-5c/lb, according to market sources. This has come as a result of decreases in feedstock costs with buyers pushing for significant price reductions. Nevertheless, the North American market remains an attractive prospect for Asian importers of PTMEG, especially as the Chinese market remains lacklustre, with oversupply coupled with weak demand leaving prices weak.
Supply of PTMEG in North America remains ample, although there are unconfirmed reports that one supplier may have experienced some production shortfalls.
US economy has seen notable improvement in the 2014, with unemployment down, construction activity better and automotive sales still bullish. This offers hope to the PTMEG sector that in 2015 the economy will continue to perform at a similar level, which in turn would boost consumer confidence in the US.
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23 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
FRONT PAGEPRICE MONITORECONOMIC NEWSINDUSTRY NEWSFEEDSTOCKSBUTANEBUTADIENE North America Europe Asia
NATURAL GASPROPYLENE OXIDE North America Europe China
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Europe
The European PTMEG market has softened again in quarter one, although to a lesser extent than the BDO contract price, which has reduced by €50-80/ton in the first quarter. The PTMEG market has not been spared the impact of falling energy and feedstock prices, although it has not fallen as dramatically as other products, probably due to the small size of the market and the relatively few suppliers in Europe.
Despite the uncertainty over the Eurozone and the possible contraction in the economy, PTMEG demand is expected to grow above GDP in 2015. The thermoplastic polyurethane demand is steady January, with growth recorded at 3-4% in the past year, and a similar level predicted for 2015, based on the increasing usage of the material in varying applications. The European spandex market is still reported to be healthy, despite the softer Chinese spandex market.
The PTMEG market is stable in terms of supply, and demand has reinvigorated in January, following a natural slowdown at the end of last year.
China
The Chinese spandex PTMEG market was fairly weak and producers made attempts to maintain prices at a stable level. However this was not enough to prevent high end prices from sliding down due to restricted demand. Offer prices were pegged at Rmb20000-20300/ton, whilst deals were closed at Rmb19500-19800/ton. Raw material BDO softened, and this took away support from the PTMEG sector. The downstream spandex market continued to decrease slowly, and the PTMEG market is expected to remain weak going forward.
Prices from Sichuan Tianhua, Shanxi Sanwei and Hangzhou Sanlong were heard at Rmb20000-20500/ton and Changlian Panjin were pegged at Rmb20000/ton, whilst high end prices from Mitsubishi (Ningbo) and BASF were quoted at Rmb22300-22500/ton and business was closed at Rmb22000-22300/ton. Imported material was reported at Rmb22300-22500/ton, and most of this was supplied directly to buyers.
The non-spandex market was variable. Demand from the downstream PU coating and elastomer market remained flat. Imported material decreased by around Rmb500/ton.
Prices for bulk 2000MW were heard at Rmb21000-22000/ton and for drummed goods at Rmb22000-25800/ton, with drums from Sichuan Tianhua, Shanxi Sanwei and Hyosung heard at Rmb22000-23000/ton, whilst drums from Ningbo Mitsubishi were pegged at Rmb25800/ton and bulk goods at Rmb24800/ton. Traders offered quotations at Rmb24000-25800/ton, Ningbo Mitsubishi remained at the high end of the range with others remaining at the low end. As for imported 2000MW, drums from Dairen were heard at Rmb24500/ton, South Korean PTG was quoting Rmb25000/ton, Japan Mitsubishi was heard at around Rmb26500-27000/ton. Domestic 1000MW was quoted by BASF at Rmb26000-27000/ton, South Korea PTG and Dairen were at Rmb25000-25500/ton, whilst Japan Mitsubishi negotiated at around Rmb27500-28000/ton.
Prices for both spandex and non-spandex PTMEG are expected to succumb to downward pressure on the basis of ongoing slow demand and the reduction in feedstock costs.
Regarding production in China, Chongqing has restarted its PTMEG unit and it is operating now at low capacity. Changlian Chemical (Panjin) is supplying 1800MW and 2000MW to the market now, but production remains unstable. Henan Hebi Coal’s 50ktpa device was commissioning.
China PTMEG Prices – December 2014 (Rmb/Ton)
East China North China South China Northeast China Highest 27500 27500 27500 27500 Lowest 25000 25000 25000 25000
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24 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
FRONT PAGEPRICE MONITORECONOMIC NEWSINDUSTRY NEWSFEEDSTOCKSBUTANEBUTADIENE North America Europe Asia
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China PTMEG Prices – January 2015 (Rmb/Ton)
East China North China South China Northeast China Highest 27000 27000 27000 27000 Lowest 24500 24500 24500 24500 Note: The above prices were based on imported PTMEG of 2000 molecular weight in drums in the non-spandex field.
China PTMEG Imports - November 2014 (Metric Tons)
Country Nov Jan-Nov Jan-Nov 2014 2014 2013 Germany 0 18 32 Korea 384 6,881 6,710 Japan 216 1,966 1,794 USA 580 8,036 7,617 Taiwan 112 336 640 Others 0 2 0 Total 1,292 17,239 16,793
SPANDEX
The Chinese spandex market was weak in December and pricing dipped by Rmb1000/ton in comparison with November. The drive by downstream manufacturers to control inventory at year end led to a dip in demand. Major manufacturers started to force down offer prices in order to make deals in the slow market. Some spandex factories were operating at low rates as a result of the ongoing sluggish demand.
Prices were expected to dip further on the basis of slow demand coupled with ample availability.
The domestic spandex market continued to weaken in January. Several grades of spandex continued a downward trend and decreased significantly. At the end of the year, demand in the downstream weaving sector was weak. Spandex producers promoted sales volume actively by lowering offers due to increasing sales pressure. The market is largely weak, and expectations for the short term remain negative. The market is not expected to improve prior to the Spring Festival.
Spandex 40D was quoted at Rmb43300-47500/ton, whilst 20D and 30D hit Rmb55000-61000/ton and Rmb46500-51500/ton respectively.
France-based Global Bioenergies announced that it has succeeded in the laboratory-scale production of bio-sourced butadiene by direct fermentation. The company claims that this is the first time ever that an entirely biological production process has been reported for butadiene. Global Bioenergies invented its own new metabolic pathway comprised of a series of non-natural enzymatic reactions since a direct biological route for producing butadiene does not exist in nature.
The next step was then to improve the activity of those enzymes and to implement them into a bacterial strain. The company has now created such a proprietary production strain, which was placed in a lab-scale fermentation device, and upon the addition of glucose, the presence of butadiene in the off-gases was detected.
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26 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
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Global Bioenergies expects the bio-butadiene program to deploy in an industrial environment in the next few years. The company signed a collaboration agreement with Poland-based rubber products manufacturer, Synthos, in 2011 for the bio-butadiene project.
There are other companies looking to produce butadiene using the direct fermentation process, including Genomatica, LanzaTech and Axens/IFPEN. Genomatica also plans to develop a single-step fermentation process to produce butadiene in collaboration with Braskem and Versalis, although the companies are currently working on producing butadiene using the 1,3 BDO fermentation route. Genomatica said it has been able to reach the 50 grams/litre milestone in producing bio-butadiene in only 10 months using corn glucose for feedstock.
LanzaTech is collaborating with INVISTA and SK Innovation to produce butadiene using the 2,3 BDO isomer route. LanzaTech has already been producing 2,3 BDO at pilot scale at its 15,000 gal/year pilot facility in New Zealand using waste carbon monoxide for feedstock. The company is also working with 2,3 BDO at pilot scale at its Freedom Pines facility in Soperton, Georgia, USA. LanzaTech is also looking to directly produce butadiene using a single-step process.
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30 Tecnon OrbiChem ISSUE NUMBER 17 / 23RD JANUARY 2015
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