Cheshire and Warrington SUBREGIONAL Transport Strategy · connectivity that drives high-value...

Cheshire and Warrington

SUBREGIONAL Transport Strategy

Delivering and Sustaining a £35bn

Economy

.

1

CONTENTS

Foreword 3

Cheshire and Warrington Matters 4

Transformation to a £35bn economy 5

A network focused on maximising economic performance 6

An interconnected sub-region 7

Future investment for rail infrastructure 9

Enhancing existing success 10Enhancing existing success 10

Additional local network investment demands 12

Additional strategic network investment demands 13

Linking jobs and homes to centres of population growth 14

Delivering our strategy and making the case 15

Summary 16

Next steps 17

2

Foreword

With a 30% GVA per head advantage over any other economy in the North of

England, and with a diversified, export-led economy of £20bn, investing in

Cheshire and Warrington Matters.

Transport is key to our current success and, as this strategy demonstrates,

investment in transport will continue to be central to realising our ambition.

We want to capitalise on Cheshire and Warrington’s current strengths as a

place of high-value jobs, as a source of skilled-labour, as an attractive place to

live, with a buoyant housing market, and as a internationally-orientated, high-

technology economy.

We want to complement our neighbouring northern cities, and to promote

UK Plc on the international stage. And the result of our approach will be to

deliver £15bn per annum economic growth.

We need to start today, because for years our transport network has been

developing too slowly and is inferior compared to other economies that are as

successful as Cheshire and Warrington in the South East.

Our priorities reflect the ambition of the Cheshire and Warrington LEP to look

outside our area and connect into the two major cities of Liverpool and

Manchester through the Atlantic Gateway (what Lord Heseltine and Sir Terry

Leahy termed ‘Britain’s Second Engine of Growth’), and a Science Corridor

linking key centres of excellence such as Thornton, Daresbury, Birchwood and

Alderley Park into the science and research community in Manchester. But

which also provides direct benefits to One North by enabling North Wales and

the North Staffordshire conurbation to be directly integrated with the

proposals by virtue of enhanced connectivity and our pivotal location at the

heart of the action.

We need to maximise the potential in our region of HS2 and HS3, to provide

early, quick wins to the whole of our sub-region, and most importantly, to the

rest of the North of England. So connectivity and improvements to these hubs

needs to take shape now, working closely with our strategic partners in Our strategy shows, this vision is achievable, with viable sites, and that

growth to this extent can be realised. Indeed, Cheshire grew faster than any

other northern city or area during 2013-2014.

Delivering a £15bn increase in the economy per annum means delivering a

transport network that can support an additional 100,000 jobs, and requires

an ambitious, integrated and planned approach towards infrastructure

investment.

needs to take shape now, working closely with our strategic partners in

Network Rail, the Highways Agency and neighbouring LEP’s.

And we want to emphasise that this is just the start of the process.

The second stage of work will be to take the degree of change identified here

and turn it into packages of investment to realise our ambition.

Christine Gaskill

Michael E Jones

Philip Cox

3

Cheshire and Warrington

Matters

Cheshire and Warrington outperforms

all other areas in the North in terms of

GVA per head, with:

Ø With close to 1m people.

Ø A £20bn economy - bigger than

Leeds, Sheffield and Newcastle.

Ø With a diversified, hi-tech

manufacturing and economic base,

Cheshire and Warrington has a strong economy,

and currently outperforms all other areas of the

North in terms of Gross Value Added per head.

With close to 1m people, our economic strength

is founded on a diverse manufacturing, research

and internationally-orientated economy. Our

GVA is £20bn (2014), with 430,000 jobs.

So with a GVA per head greater than that of

Manchester, Liverpool or any area of the North,

investment in Cheshire and Warrington Matters.

As the transport strategy makes clear, and as

evidenced from recent growth adjacent to our

key transport arteries, transport connectivity has

been key to Cheshire and Warrington’s current

success.

GVA / head as a percentage of the

national average:

Cheshire and Warrington = 113%

Greater Manchester= 89%

Liverpool= 79%

Sheffield = 71%

manufacturing and economic base,

complementing Manchester and

Liverpool.

A Transport Strategy to A Transport Strategy to

Connect, Enhance and Connect, Enhance and

Invest in Existing SuccessInvest in Existing Success

It is also clear that connectivity equals jobs. So

continued investment in transport is crucial to

growing the economy by a further £15bn per

annum by 2030.

Investment in all aspects of transport is vital to

unlock high-value employment sites, to further

drive growth in export-led and diversified

manufacturing, to maximise productivity gains

and agglomeration, and to ensure ease of access

to jobs – both existing and in the future.

The greatest returns from investment in transport

will be achieved by targeted action in existing

areas of success.

In Cheshire and Warrington.

4

Transformation to a £35bn economy

Unlocks an additional 174,000 Jobs; or,

Unlocks an additional 100,000 Jobs +14%

increase in productivity from transport & skills

per job by 2030, or,

Unlocks an additional 70,000 Jobs +20%


To move from a £20bn economy to a £35bn

economy in 2030 means delivering a transport

network that can support an additional

174,000 jobs. Or it requires a 14% increase in

productivity (arising from improved transport,

skills and education) combined with 100,000

new jobs.

In terms of the role transport plays in achieving

this growth, transport schemes can either

directly unlock growth, or enhance connectivity

and drive the productivity of existing business

and industry. Or they can do both.

By stimulating business investment and

innovation through economies of scale, thereby

enabling firms to access a larger labour pool,

increase competitiveness on the national and

international state, and reduce business and

trading costs, and while also ensuring local

people with the right skills can access the right

Four key spatial

priorities for growth:

Ø Atlantic Gateway

Ø Science Corridor

Ø High Growth City

Ø Energy Cluster


per job by 2030people with the right skills can access the right

jobs in the right place.

But even if we’re successful on the skills side,

we still need transport investment to capitalise

on Cheshire and Warrington’s current

advantages: as a place of high-value jobs; as a

source of skilled-labour; as an attractive place

to live with high quality housing; and, as a

vibrant tourist and cultural offer.

As this strategy demonstrates, the £35bn vision

is achievable. Indeed, Cheshire grew faster

than any other Northern City or area during

2013-2014.

But even so, we will be stronger still as part of

an interconnected North. We want to

complement Liverpool and Manchester, and be

highly connected in a Northern Powerhouse. 5

£35bn

As shown opposite, there is already a strong

spine of existing regional and national

connectivity in Cheshire and Warrington that

helps to drives high-value employment, above

average GVA per head and diversified inward

investment in the sub-region.

As the transport analysis in Cheshire and

Warrington’s Strategic Economic Plan makes

clear, our people and businesses benefit from

long established linkages to Manchester and

Liverpool, their city centres, higher education

and innovation assets, as well as strong

economic links to the North Staffordshire

conurbation and Wales.

As a result, our transport network is generally

well connected by road and rail north-south,

and east-west in the northern part of the sub-

region.region.

But elsewhere, in the sub-region east-west

connectivity is poor, by all modes.

And even where good connectivity exists on the

M6, M62,and M56, this spine of connectivity is

congested and fragile in terms of its resilience.

When it fails, not only does connectivity become

impaired, but our sub-regional centres are

paralysed with congestion.

And on the rail side, frequencies and journey

times are poor compared to both other parts

of the UK, and international comparatives.

Much of the rail network is in need of

modernisation, with poor service patterns, line

capacity issues, and poor quality rolling stock. There is already a strong spine of existing regional and national

connectivity that drives high-value employment, above average

GVA and diversified inward investment.

There is already a strong spine of existing regional and national

connectivity that drives high-value employment, above average

GVA and diversified inward investment. 6

A network focused on maximising

economic performance

ü Fast, frequent connectivity between sub-

regional centres for people and freight

ü Travel by car and sustainable modes within 30

minutes between key centres

ü Reliable journey times, with all growth areas

within 1 hour, door-to-door, from all parts of

Cheshire and Warrington, and key economic

centres

EUROPEAN & UK BEST

PRACTICE CHECKLIST:

It’s fair to say that if we were designing a

network from scratch, and to maximise economic

performance of our region, we’d probably do

things differently.

Making the leap to that £35bn economy requires a

number of essential ingredients, and as part of our

work we have reviewed a range of national and

international examples of best practice to develop

a checklist of requirements, shown opposite.

These are based on international comparatives

such as the Randstad in the Netherlands, the

Rhine/Ruhr Region of Germany, One North, and

DfT research. With further evidence on transport

connectivity, accessibility and capacity issues

holding the Cheshire and Warrington economy

back detailed in the evidence base appendices.

These show that being able to support and sustain

a further £15bn of economic output per annum

requires:centres

ü Support existing areas of success through:

ü Dedicated, high-quality inter-urban

corridors to Manchester, Liverpool,

Wales, Birmingham and Yorkshire

ü Direct linkages to London and the UK’s

top city economies

ü Fast, reliable connectivity to key

international gateways

ü Resolve existing pinch points and capacity

issues

requires:

ü Dedicated corridors as part of a functional

transport hierarchy between our major

centres, for passengers, and for freight.

ü High-frequency connectivity to and from our

key sub-regional centres, all less than 30

minutes away.

ü All main national hubs, markets, gateways and

ports under that critical hour “economically

productive” door-to-door travel time, from all

parts of Cheshire and Warrington.

These objectives and principles are clearly

aligned with the strategic direction of One North

and Transport for the North; but they also

enhance and capitalise on the economic

advantages of Cheshire and Warrington to realise

the ambition of the Northern Powerhouse on the

national and international stage.

7

An interconnected sub-region

- Vital For One North, North Wales and the North Staffordshire conurbation

- With an effective transport hierarchy for business

and industry

Manchester

Airport

Liverpool Hub

Manchester

Hub

Leeds

hub

Warrington

To achieve the £35bn economy, we need to

transform our transport networks through

strategic opportunities for Cheshire and

Warrington that complement Liverpool,

Manchester and One North.

We also need to connect North Wales, North

Staffordshire conurbation, Merseyside and

Birmingham. Merseyside, North Wales and

Stoke add a further 1m people to our

economic potential, and a further £17bn of

current GVA.

Our strategy drives inward investment and

agglomeration benefits for Liverpool,

Manchester, North Wales and Stoke, as well as

for Cheshire and Warrington.

As an enhanced Northern Powerhouse, with

Crewe and Warrington, being “real agents of

Wigan

Preston

Scotland

Airport

Crewe NW

HS2 Hub

Sheffield

hub

Warrington

HS3 Hub

North Wales

Crewe and Warrington, being “real agents of

change”, to use Sir David Higgins’ terminology,

through HS2 and HS3 connectivity to One

North.

Our approach spreads benefits earlier and

faster to our city and neighbouring economies

by connecting Crewe effectively with One

North.

And enhances national connectivity and

growth via HS3 at Warrington, while

maximising the potential of Chester as gateway

to Merseyside, Deeside and North Wales.

We will maximise capacity and connectivity

benefits to unlock strategic sites in the Atlantic

Gateway, High Growth City and the Science

Corridor.

Chester

Gateway Hub

Stoke

Birmingham

London

8

Crewe & Warrington: real

agents of changein the sub-region

KEY

Cheshire and

Warrington hubs

Other major hubs

Warrington

HS3 Hub

Liverpool

Hub

Chester

Gateway

HubNorth Wales

Manchester

Hub

Future investment for rail infrastructure- to deliver faster, better connected journeys, with greater

capacity (additional details in rail appendices B & C)

Stoke

Crewe NW

HS2 Hub

KEY

New Service / Line

Upgraded Lines

Electrification

Conversion from Freight

9

Enhancing existing success

ü Resolve existing pinchpoints

Highway examples include:

M6 J16-19, M53 and M56 Smart

Motorways

M62 J8

Warrington Waterfront

A556, M6 J17, A55/A483, A494/A550

ü Unlock growth areas and enhance connectivity

and capacity to/from strategic sites

To achieve the £15bn per annum uplift in our

economy, we will firstly need to resolve

existing pinchpoints and unlock our growth

areas.

Many such schemes are already underway, or

are committed in terms of funding across all

modes. We need to ensure that transport

enhancements continue in the early years of

our strategy.

These project are being delivered locally, but

also by the Highways Agency, Network Rail, and

in collaboration with local authorities in

adjacent LEPs.

We will capitalise on this success to bring

forward investment that will:

ü transform connectivity across, and to and

Congleton Relief Road

Chester Central

A500 Improvements

A54 to Radnor ParkWarrington Waterfront

A556, M6 J17, A55/A483, A494/A550

A6 MARR- A555

Public transport and active

travel examples include:

Northern Hub

NW electrification

Warrington West Station

Birchwood Station access

and improvements

Platform lengthening

CLC improvements

LSTF and active mode

proposals

ü transform connectivity across, and to and

from, the Atlantic Gateway World Trade

Corridor focused on Warrington, Chester,

Ellesmere Port, and Deeside;

ü unlock the opportunity that is High Growth

City focused on Crewe and connected Mid-

Cheshire towns and facilitate delivery of the

HS2 Crewe Hub Station; and

ü improve access to unlock priority high value

job creation, in the Science Corridor namely

at Alderley Park, Booths Park, Hurdsfield,

Jodrell Bank, Daresbury, Thornton, Radbroke

Hall and Waters Wilmslow.

With these schemes representing the first step

to that £35bn economy, in the early years of

our strategy.

10

A54 to Radnor Park

Middlewich Eastern Bypass

Critical maintenance

To achieve our £35bn economy, we need to grow

our current area of transport advantage to

incorporate the SEP growth priorities within our

sub-region. We also need to grow and enhance

our advantage outwards to other adjacent cities

and neighbouring authorities to drive productivity

and agglomeration benefits.

Cheshire and Warrington already has a range of

highway network schemes to support and unlock

growth in their Local Plans. Examples such as

Warrington Waterfront, A34 improvements, M62

J8 in Warrington, A55 and Western Access

improvements around Chester, and potential

Northwich and Winsford improvements are all good

examples of this.

Strategic improvements such as Warrington West

Station, Crewe Station, CLC electrification and other

rail capacity improvements noted earlier are of

equal importance.

Science Corridor

equal importance.

But more is required, because across Atlantic

Gateway, High Growth City and Science Corridor

there are 134,000 jobs to be unlocked by 2030.

The Atlantic Gateway and High Growth City in their

totality have the potential to create two of the

most important growth centres outside the South

East of England. They are, therefore, the LEP’s clear

priorities for major transport infrastructure

investment followed by investment to better

connect the Science Corridor.

However, the majority of these sites are closely

located to our existing spine of congested

transport routes. So whilst viable, the £15bn per

annum of economic benefit associated with these

priorities is being held back by our sub-standard

transport network.

Total Potential for 134,000 Jobs by 2030:

Atlantic Gateway: 49,000

High Growth City 48,000

Science Corridor: 37,00011

Additional local network demand

requiring investment To unlock and meet the SEP growth, we need

a transport network that can allow for up to a

35% increase on current demands for

movements between some of our key

centres.

Spatial modelling shows the greatest increases

are linked to the spatial pattern of job and

housing growth in Middlewich, Winsford and

Crewe, with significant growth in Macclesfield,

Warrington and Ellesmere Port.

It is important to note that this reflects

demand by all modes.

Whilst also being overlaid with our existing

network constraints, and capacity problems.Crewe

Middlewich & Winsford

% G

row

th i

n D

em

an

d f

or

Mo

ve

me

nt

+32%

+31%

With SEP

to 2030

network constraints, and capacity problems.

So growth of 14% growth in Warrington, 15%

in Macclesfield, 35% in Crewe, and 9% in

Chester is likely to be challenging to achieve.

And with 134,000 jobs we need to not just

split the investment between our growth

areas, but have a greater share of funding

nationally.

By comparison, Manchester is forecast to have

an extra 100,000 jobs by 2026.

Macclesfield

Ellesmere Port

Warrington

Chester

% G

row

th i

n D

em

an

d f

or

Mo

ve

me

nt

+31%

+19%

+15%

+14%

+9%

12

£35bn

Strategic Road Network

Typical Cheshire and Warrington Interurban

Corridors

Rail Network

Additional strategic network demand

requiring investment

Cheshire and Warrington’s inter-urban arteries

are important too.

Spatial modelling shows the growth in jobs and

houses associated with the SEP Growth requires

the delivery of a network that can support a 40%

increase in demand on the M6, and M62

corridors. And a 30-35% increase in demand

through corridors such as Congleton, Winsford,

Middlewich, the M53 / M56, and Alderley Edge.

It follows that investment in the full range of

transport planning solutions will need to be

deployed to meet this challenge.

Modelling highlights key pressures on all rail lines,

with the greatest increases found on routes

to/from Warrington, Crewe to Macclesfield and

Congleton, stations on the Mid-Cheshire Line, and

Chester to Manchester, Ellesmere-Port and

Liverpool.

+40%

+30-35%

+60%Rail Network

Freight

Liverpool.

Highways Agency and Network Rail forecasting

predicts an increase of 70% in freight via Liverpool

Superport, and a 25% increase in freight demands

elsewhere in Cheshire and Warrington.

Our strategy needs to ensure that the majority of

this growth in travel demand is by rail, rather

than road. It needs to be linked to the

investment described previously, as part of Rail

North.

Finally, there needs to be early, direct access

to/from HS2, HS3, and Manchester Airport, to

maximise economic gains and provide enhanced

sub-regional links along each of our lines that are

not achieving their full economic potential.

In the long term, increased usage will reduce the

subsidy requirements.

+60%

+70% to Liverpool

+25% in Cheshire and

Warrington

13

£35bn

HS3

Hub

Linking jobs to homes and centres of population

growthOur Strategy needs to be sustainable,

promote integrated land uses and active

travel, and reduce the need to travel in the

first place.

Our strategy seeks to overcome existing gaps

in our rail, public transport, and local

sustainable networks, and support the high-

quality environment demanded by high-value

employers.

In particular, we need to overcome present

gaps in public transport connectivity between

Crewe and Macclesfield, the Mid-Cheshire

Line, Chester and Ellesmere Port to Liverpool

and Manchester, and Macclesfield to Alderley

Edge/ Northwich.

LiverpoolManchester

NW HS2

Hub

We also need to connect jobs to population

growth, and national opportunity from HS2,

HS3, and to/from Manchester airport and our

international gateways is also a priority (as

indicated by the blue arrows).

However, our analysis of housing locations as

part of the SEP shows a similar spatial pattern

to that of jobs, but with significantly lower

growth in the Science Corridor.

So to be sustainable, our transport strategy

also needs to ensure effective access by all

modes to/from the Science Corridor, and to

prevent extended travel distances, especially

by car (as indicated by the red arrows).

Chester

Gateway

Hub

Key:Existing Links (requiring improvement)

Strategic Transport Gaps

Stoke

North

Wales

14Residential growth area

Science corridor

Unlock

Transform

Delivering our strategy & making

the case

As our strategy noted at the outset, we need

to enhance connectivity compared to where

we are today as well as unlocking and

catering for growth.

In so doing, achieving transformational

investment in Cheshire and Warrington, and

to drive One North.

So we need to start campaigning for

investment to deliver the network required for

an achievable £35bn economy.

And we need to start today, not tomorrow.

Our analysis, supported by that of the SEP,

highest GVA values per head in Northern

England and strong economic growth over the

Resolve

England and strong economic growth over the

past few years tangibly demonstrates that

providing the right investment in our

transport systems would deliver

unprecedented change to better connect

people and jobs.

Through this strategy we will develop an

exemplary transport network that delivers

£15bn of growth per annum; engages and

collaborates with our delivery partners, and

neighbours; enhances national and

international competitiveness; fosters inward

investment ,and helps rebalance the national

economy.

Our strategy therefore benefits our own local

communities , those of our neighbours, and

the country as a whole.

15

The following organisations will be engaged and

involved in delivery of this strategy:

Ø Department for Transport

Ø Highways Agency

Ø Transport for the North

Ø HS2, Network Rail & Rail North

Ø Sustrans

Ø Cheshire East, Cheshire West, and Warrington

Ø Welsh Government/ Llywodraeth Cymru

Ø TfGM

Ø MDA, North Staffordshire and neighbouring

authorities£35bn

Summary

ü A £35bn economy is achievable.

ü Major growth is north-south, and east-west on existing

axis, along with Science Corridor

ü There is a need to drive strategic opportunities

ü Gaps in local transport remain

ü Transport investment is best located in successful

Our strategy will ensure the additional

infrastructure, connectivity and capacity

required to unlock the £15bn per annum

increase described in the Strategy Economic

Plan.

Our economy is bigger than Sheffield, Leeds

or Newcastle, and with a 30% GVA per head

advantage over other parts of the North, we

believe investment in Cheshire and

Warrington Matters.

Investing in our existing success will

maximising our contribution to the North.

To One North.

To Transport for the North.ü Transport investment is best located in successful

economies… Like Ours.

To Transport for the North.

And to UK Plc.

Making sure that transport investment is

targeted in the most successful economies.

In economies like ours.

16

£35bn

Stage 1: Written report & sign-off by next LTB MeetingStage 1: Written report & sign-off by next LTB Meeting

Stage 1b: Making the case for this network and

investment

Stage 1b: Making the case for this network and

investment

Stage 2: Developing priority corridors for further

analysis & option appraisal

Stage 2: Developing priority corridors for further

analysis & option appraisal

Next stepsWorking with partners across the North and

the national agencies, the next stage of work is

to ensure that all transport options to meet

this challenge, across all modes, are duly

considered as part of the LEP’s investment

programme.

Investment in key schemes is needed to unlock

growth, and we have prepared a strong

strategic case to help us achieve our ambitions.

Between now and Summer 2015, we will

develop this strategy into a phased investment

programme based on an economically driven

option sifting process that is also sufficiently

robust to be used by partner agencies to

develop holistic, integrated investment

decisions.

analysis & option appraisalanalysis & option appraisal

To find the optimal schemes linked to our growth

objectives

To find the optimal schemes linked to our growth

objectives

To continue with scheme delivery to transform our network to

achieve a £35bn economy.

To continue with scheme delivery to transform our network to

achieve a £35bn economy.

Our process will identify the optimal schemes

linked to Cheshire and Warrington’s objectives,

which are inextricably linked with those same

objectives of One North, North Wales, Stoke

and Staffordshire, and UK Plc.

Our focus will be: making sure transport

investment is targeted on the most successful

areas of our sub-region; unlocking the greatest

economic potential; and driving productivity

and agglomeration economies with our

neighbours.

These are the key points on which higher

productivity per job, and attracting higher-value

inward investment are founded.

17

APPENDICES

Section A - Evidence Base

Section B - Rail

Section C - Rail Freight

Section D - 2011 Census- Trends Analysis & Comparisons Against 2001

18

Cheshire & Warrington SUBREGIONAL

Transport Strategy

A- Evidence Base

.

19

CURRENT CONGESTION HOTSPOTS- Cheshire & Warrington(Google API Data) 20

Atlantic Gateway

Science Corridor

The Larger the Circle the Greater the

Number of Jobs.

Light Blue Indicates SEP Growth; Dark

Blue Local Plan Growth

The Larger the Circle the Greater the

Number of Jobs.

Light Blue Indicates SEP Growth; Dark

Blue Local Plan Growth

Total Potential for

134,000 Jobs:




Total Potential for

134,000 Jobs:




Total Potential for

134,000 Jobs to 2030:

Cheshire East: 76,000

Warrington: 38,000

Cheshire West: 20,000

Total Potential for

134,000 Jobs to 2030:

Cheshire East: 76,000

Warrington: 38,000

Cheshire West: 20,000

High Growth

City

21

CURRENT CHESHIRE & WARRINGTON SUBREGIONAL PUBLIC TRANSPORT CONNECTIVITY TO ONE NORTH (Defined as Liverpool, Manchester, Manchester Airport, Sheffield & Leeds, within 60

minutes) 22

CURRENT SUBREGIONAL PUBLIC TRANSPORT CONNECTIVITY TO MANCHESTER

(Within 60 minutes) 23

CURRENT SUBREGIONAL PUBLIC TRANSPORT CONNECTIVITY TO LIVERPOOL


CURRENT SUBREGIONAL PUBLIC TRANSPORT CONNECTIVITY TO BIRMINGHAM


GRAVITY MODEL USED TO FORECAST

CHANGES

M6

M62

M56

M53

M53

M6

A537

A556

A51/54/556

A49/533

River Mersey

River Mersey

A6/523

A56 A34

A34

M6A553

23

36

29

27

41

44

37

29

36

42

35

35

40

M58

13

M61

33

M62 24

Manchester

Internal

Wigan/The North

Internal

Warrington

14%Liverpool

Internal

Ellesmere Port

15%

Northwich

13%

Knutsford

7%

Wilmslow

8%

Macclesfield

19%

GRAVITY MODEL USED TO FORECAST DEMAND CHANGES- BACKGROUND LOCAL PLAN + SEP GROWTH26

Link Flow Name

Corridor Label Scenario 2

A Road/Motorway classification

Internal/External Settlement Flow

% Trips Internal to Settlement Mode

2030 Transformational Grow th

AADF

Road

2030 Transformational Growth AADF

Road Trips

B1832052 Transport for Lancashire Growth Strategy:

Forecast Traffic Movements along Corridors Between Hubs

A536

A534

M6

A51/A41A530

A54

A55

A500

A34

M6A553

46

30

40

31

47

24

42

41

35

30

48

36

XX

North Wales

Internal

Chester

9%

Mi ddlewich &

Winsford

32%

Birmingham

Internal

Crewe

31%

Stoke

Internal

Congleton

20%

0

WITHOUT THE SEP BY 2030 (DfT, HA & NR Forecasts)

Car Demand 21%

Delays 33% Motorways (55%)

Speeds -4% Motorways (-5%)

• 70% in freight via Liverpool Superport

• 23% in freight demands through C&W

Rail Demand: Low Scenario 30%

Rail Demand: High Scenario 65%

27

Additional Daily Demand With SEP Outcomes & Background

Growth to 2030

Middlewich & Winsford +32%

Crewe +31%

Macclesfield +19%

THE IMPACTS OF SEP GROWTH: Subregional Centres

Ellesmere Port +15%

Warrington +14%

Chester +9%

28

Additional Daily Demand With SEP Outcomes & Background

Growth to 2030

Macclesfield- Knutsford/M6 +42%

M6 +41%

M62 Warrington- Manchester +41%

Knutsford/ Alderley Edge- Manchester +40%

Crewe-Congleton-Macclesfield +38%

M56 +36%

THE IMPACTS OF SEP GROWTH: Key Corridors

M56 +36%

Chester- Northwich/ Winsford +36%

Crewe- Middlewich/ Winsford +30%

Chester-Crewe +30%

M62 Warrington- Liverpool +24%

29


Transport Strategy

B- Rail

.

30

Our ask:Proposed schemes designed to support the growth of rail passenger volumes in Cheshire,

Warrington and surrounding areas fall into the following groups:

• HS2 & HS3;

• North of England Programmes;

• Refranchising of Northern Rail and TransPennine Express; and

• Specific Cheshire and Warrington improvements, lettered A to J

• Other plans and aspirations – as noted in the following pages, numbered 1 to 12

31

A

B

C D

E

F

G

MAP ILLUSTRATING LOCATION OF CURRENTLY PROPOSED RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE ENHANCEMENTS TO

SUPPORT PASSENGER GROWTH IN CHESHIRE & WARRINGTON

A

B

C

32

D

H

I

J

A - J

HS2 & HS3

Significant features of plans to extend HS2 through to the North West with implications for the LEP area include:

❶ The latest HS2 report advocates a new high speed station to the south of Crewe. Previously plans includedutilising the existing West Coast main line station via a junction at Basford with the HS2 line continuing norththrough a tunnel below the station.

❷ A new interchange station at the northern side of Manchester Airport.

❸ An upgraded station at Manchester Piccadilly linking the existing and HS2 concourses. It is planned to have at least four new HS2 platforms.

33

Delivery of North of England Programmes

Programme of upgrades scheduled for completion in 2019. Overall benefits include the ability to operate an additional 700 trains per day and an extra 44 million passenger journeys annually. The Northern Hub caters for the entire north of England with benefits planned as far East as Newcastle and Hull and Chester and Liverpool in the West.

❹ Ordsall Chord Plans include a new section of railway to the north west of Castlefield Junction. This will link both Castlefieldand Deal Street connecting Manchester’s Victoria, Oxford Road and Piccadilly stations for the first time. To be operational by December 2016.

Benefits:• Two additional fast trains per hour between Manchester Victoria and Liverpool plus a journey time improvement of 10-

15 minutes;15 minutes;• Six fast trains per hour between Leeds and Manchester opposed to the current four per hour;• A new direct Manchester Airport service via the city centre;• Faster journey times to Hull, Newcastle and the North East; and• Trains between Manchester Airport, Leeds, Bradford, Rochdale, Newcastle and other train services across the North

will no longer need to reverse at Manchester Piccadilly. A consequence of the planned changes is the current Liverpool to North East TransPennine Express transferring from Manchester Piccadilly and the CLC route to Manchester Victoria and the Chat Moss route. The consequence of withdrawing the Liverpool/Piccadilly service will be to halve the fast service between Liverpool, Warrington and Manchester Piccadilly therefore effectively losing one fast service per hour to Warrington.

34

North of England Programmes

❺ New platforms and / or station capacity improvements at Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Oxford Road, Manchester Victoria & Manchester Airport.

• Manchester Piccadilly Station capacity increase by providing two new through platforms, (15 and 16), which will improve station capacity and platform acceptance times from four to three minutes. The new platforms will also facilitate four new through services to Oxford Road and one freight path to Trafford Park. Construction is expected to be completed for the December 2018 timetable;

• Manchester Oxford Road: Platform lengthening and reconfiguration of signalling and infrastructure to operate longer eight car trains;

• Manchester Victoria: Extensive station refurbishment and the remodelling of the Metrolink infrastructure from two to three tracks and associated platform capacity. The project is scheduled to be completed in 2015; and

• Manchester Airport: Construction of a fourth new platform which will increase station capacity.

❻ Chat Moss Route Capacity ImprovementThe scheme will provide line capacity improvements between Huyton to Ruby by adding a new line and improving capacity and facilities at Huyton and Ruby stations. The objective of the scheme is to facilitate:•Additional fast trains between Manchester and Liverpool which will be able to overtake local stopping services;•More frequent services between Liverpool and Preston without impacting on existing freight and local services; and•Additional alternative route options during maintenance closures

35


❼ Enhancements to Facilitate journey Time Improvements between Wrexham, Chester and Warrington

Route infrastructure improvements to increase line speed will result in shorter journey times. A new Chester to Manchester Airport services and a targeted reduction in journey times to Manchester by up to 23 minutes will also be an output of the overall Northern Hub scheme.

In May 2014 Network Rail closed the route at Chriselton tunnel for several days to resolve an ongoing flooding problem which had been causing reliability problems between Chester and Crewe.

A number of enhancements are also being made to the railway infrastructure between Wrexham and Chester which will increase the lines speed profile. This includes:

• Doubling 5.5 miles of track specifically between Rossett and Saltney Junctions;• Doubling 5.5 miles of track specifically between Rossett and Saltney Junctions;• Various track enhancements to increase line speeds; and• The upgrading of four level crossings to facilitate line speed improvements

Line speed enhancements with the objective of reducing journey times. At Rochdale station a third platform will be added to allow terminating Manchester services keep clear of the main line. This will facilitate trains going beyond Rochdale by reducing line congestion and improving through line capacity for the benefit of Cheshire and Warrington.

36

North West Electrification

❽ Electrification of routes across the north west including:

• Preston to Blackpool by May 2016• Manchester Victoria to Preston by December 2016• Oxenholme to Windermere and Wigan to Lostock dates are to be announced

Trans Pennine Electrification

❾ Electrification of Routes to Stalybridge from Manchester Victoria and Manchester Piccadilly


❾ Electrification of Routes to Stalybridge from Manchester Victoria and Manchester Piccadilly

• Manchester and Guide Bridge to Stalybridge by December 2016; and• Full electrification between Manchester, Leeds and York by December 2018 which will link up with the York and Leeds

electrified lines

North West Train Lengthening

❿ Currently in development Network Rail are considering increasing usable platform lengths at a number of stations across the north west, including: stations on the CLC route between Chester and Manchester (Mouldsworth, Delamere, Cuddington, Greenbank & Plumley) and the CLC route between Liverpool and Manchester (Widnes & Warrington Central). The initiative is aligned with the delivery of HLOS metrics relating to projected increases in passenger patronage.

37

Other Plans & Future Aspirations

⓫ Hope Valley Line/Marple Line (forms part of the Northern Hub scheme)

Between Dore and Grindleford two new freight loops are being constructed along with double tracking the current single line at Dore Junction. A new platform, including an overbridge and lifts, at Dore will be commissioned to accommodate the double track. The work will increase route capacity and reduce journey times between Sheffield and Manchester as faster passenger services will be able to overtake slower moving freight services.

At Chinley station a new overtaking loop is to be constructed along with the ability to terminate Manchester trains without blocking the main line. Trains going beyond Chinley can overtake terminating trains therefore reducing line congestion and increasing opportunities to run additional services.

⓬ Calder Valley (forms part of the Northern Hub scheme) with direct services Chester to Leeds via Calder Valley.

congestion and increasing opportunities to run additional services.

Marple Line speed enhancements with the objective of reducing journey times.

38

Specific Cheshire and Warrington improvements

A Crewe to Holyhead Electrification [electrification]

B Wrexham Central to Bidston Electrification (extension of DC Lines) [electrification]

C Chester to Acton Grange Junction Electrification [electrification]

D Mid Cheshire line electrification and journey time improvements [electrification and upgraded lines]

E CLC Liverpool-Warrington-Manchester line electrification and journey time improvements [electrification and

upgraded lines]

F Rail link to Manchester Airport from CLC Route at Mobberley [new line]

G Frodsham Junction to Halton Junction enhancements and introduction of Liverpool to Chester and Hooton (via

39

Northern Rail and TransPennine Express Refranchising

G Frodsham Junction to Halton Junction enhancements and introduction of Liverpool to Chester and Hooton (via

Ellesmere Port) passenger services [new service and upgraded line]

H Saltney Junction to Wrexham General doubling and line speed improvements (approved scheme) [upgraded lines]

I Improved Connectivity for Winsford, Hartford & Acton Bridge Stations [upgraded lines]

J Northwich / Middlewich / Sandbach (Chord Line) Enhancements and Reintroduction of Passenger Services

[conversion from freight]

Double tracking of parts of the route and increasing current capacity levels by 100%. Train speeds expected to attain 90 mph in some sections.


Transport Strategy

C- Rail Freight

.

40

Proposed schemes designed to support the growth of rail-freight in Cheshire,

Warrington and surrounding areas fall into two main groups:

• Schemes currently being considered by Network Rail as part of their strategic

“Northern Ports & Trans Pennine Freight Capacity” study.

• Other schemes for the development of new rail-served terminals required for

delivery of our strategy.

Our ask:

41

MAP ILLUSTRATING LOCATION OF CURRENTLY PROPOSED RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE ENHANCEMENTS TO

SUPPORT FREIGHT GROWTH IN CHESHIRE & WARRINGTON 42

Northern Ports & Trans Pennine Freight Capacity Proposals

The Strategic Freight Network Steering Group has identified the need to improve capacity and infrastructure capabilityfor freight trains along the Trans Pennine corridor. To accommodate projected growth in the intermodal, waste to energyand biomass sectors improvements are required in the following areas:

• Signalling and permanent way enhancements that provide additional network capacity.

• Improvements in loading gauge.• Elimination of freight specific speed restrictions.• Provision of loops to accommodate freight trains up to 775m in length .• The electrification of the route via Diggle and other initiatives designed to

increase the frequency of TransPennine passenger services also mean that action will need to be taken to safeguard capacity for freight.

❶ Bootle Branch Capacity Enhancements including:

Doubling of connection with NR infrastructure at Regent RoadProvision of additional signalling between Regent Road & Bootle Branch Jnc.Increasing line speed from 20 to 40mphImproved run round facilities at Edge Hill Down Wapping

The following schemes are being considered as part of the above programme:

43


❺ Calder Valley Enhancements:

Proposals to improve infrastructure to the east of Manchester.

❹ Northwich Viaduct Line speed Improvements.

❷ Earlestown West to South Doubling including:

Introduction of improved signalling arrangements.

❸ Hartford CLC Junction Line speed Improvement.

Proposals to improve infrastructure to the east of Manchester.

❻ Diggle TransPennine Route Enhancements including:

Proposals to eliminate speed restrictions applicable to trains conveying heavy axleweight vehicles.Provision of loops to accommodate freight trains of up to 775m in length.

44


❽ Knowsley Freight Terminal Enhancements:

Improved head-shunt arrangements.

❼ Hope Valley Enhancements:

Reinstatement / enhancement of looping facilities at Chinley, Bamford & Grindleford.

It should be emphasised that the above schemes have only been slated for further development and

analysis and it is likely that only those schemes offering the best economic return will be developed

during the course of CP5/6.

❾ Heaton Norris Junction Line speed Improvement

45

Cheshire & Warrington Schemes:

The following schemes are also being considered and are at various stages of development. All three

schemes relate to rail served terminals that are key economic drivers in our SEP, and are being developed by

Peel Ports.

❾ Heaton Norris Junction Line speed Improvement.

❿ Port Ince (accessed via the former connection at Helsby West Cheshire Junction).

⓬Port Salford (initially a west facing connection on to the Chat Moss lines at Barton Moss).

⓫ Port Warrington (accessed via Walton Old Junction sidings).

46


Transport Strategy

D- 2011 Census- Trends Analysis &

Comparisons against 2001

.

47

Cheshire East – Train• More people are using Cheshire East as an origin

rather than a destination.

• Inflows are roughly 2x higher by 2011.

• Manchester has shown a fourfold increase in inflows

becoming the highest inflow (overtaking Stockport).

• Westminster has risen 6 places from 9th to 3rd highest

outflow.

Cheshire East - TrainCheshire East - Train

Location Inflow Outflow Sum Net Change

Manchester 409 1875 2,284 -1466

Stockport 292 329 621 -37

Cheshire West & Chester 167 107 274 60

Westminster, City of London 2 169 171 -167

Birmingham 17 153 170 -136

Liverpool 61 97 158 -36

Trafford 57 99 156 -42

Salford 57 93 150 -36

Stoke-On-Trent 59 91 150 -32

Warrington 50 42 92 8

Shropshire 38 31 69 7

Newcastle-Under-Lyme 47 20 67 27

1,256 3,106 4,362 -1,85048

Cheshire East – Bus

• Bus travel shows the smallest change between 2001 and

2011 of all groups (a net change increase of 45).

• The top 5 inflows origins haven't changed, however

Manchester has risen from 3rd to 2nd (pushing Cheshire

West and Chester down a place).

• Commuting outside the UK has now reached the top 10

outflows.

Cheshire East - Bus


Stockport 268 112 380 156

Manchester 239 70 309 169


Stoke-On-Trent 111 66 177 45

High Peak 65 57 122 8

Newcastle-Under-Lyme 92 25 117 67

Warrington 18 83 101 -65

Stafforshire Moorlands 87 6 93 81

Trafford 56 29 85 27

Tameside 54 1 55 53

Sheffield 28 1 29 27

Outside the UK 0 16 16 -16

Newport 1 13 14 -12

1,158 615 1,773 543 49

Cheshire East – Car (Driver)

• This was the predominant method of travel for both

years.

• Net change has now became a gain. Largely due to

the ~15% inflow increase.

• Highest outflow has changed from Manchester

(now 2nd) to Cheshire West & Chester. The Lowest

outflow has changed from Tameside (no longer in

the top 10) to Shropshire.

Cheshire East - Driving a car or van


Cheshire West & Chester 7983 7033 15,016 950

Stockport 7178 5846 13,024 1332

Manchester 3059 6941 10,000 -3882

Stoke-On-Trent 3199 3649 6,848 -450

Newcastle-Under-Lyme 3978 2389 6,367 1589

Trafford 2501 3190 5,691 -689

Stafforshire Moorlands 3225 769 3,994 2456

Warrington 1819 1845 3,664 -26

High Peak 1487 705 2,192 782

Shropshire 984 734 1,718 250

Salford 596 1105 1,701 -509

36,009 34,206 70,215 1,803 50

Cheshire West & Chester –

Train• Wirral is the highest inflow origin being roughly 3x higher

than Flintshire in 2001 and Liverpool in 2011.

• Flintshire has dropped from 2nd highest inflow to 5th from

2001 to 2011.

• Liverpool has moved up to the highest outflow location

by 2011.

Cheshire West & Chester - Train

Location Inflow Outflow SumNet

ChangeLocation Inflow Outflow Sum

Change

Liverpool 188 773 961 -585

Wirral 463 200 663 263

Manchester 52 396 448 -344

Cheshire East 107 167 274 -60

Wrexham 92 38 130 54

Warrington 26 93 119 -67

Flintshire 83 30 113 53

Sefton 47 39 86 8

Halton 39 31 70 8

Denbighshire 54 11 65 43

Trafford 9 55 64 -46

Westminster, City of London 0 62 62 -62

Conwy 46 2 48 44

Birmingham 6 32 38 -26

1,212 1,929 3,141 -71751


Bus• Bus travel has shown the smallest change overall with a net

change decrease of 47.

• Knowsley and Sefton are no longer in the top 10 inflows (9th

and 10th respectively) having been replaced by Denbighshire

and Stoke-On-Trent.

• Flintshire’s inflows are around 3x higher than the next highest

inflow.

• People commuting outside the UK from Cheshire West and

Chester has risen to 29 from 0 (and up to 9th).

Cheshire West & Chester - Bus

Location InflowOutflo

wSum Net Change

Flintshire 967 245 1,212 722

Wirral 265 190 455 75

Wrexham 265 46 311 219


Halton 114 37 151 77

Liverpool 72 68 140 4

Warrington 50 40 90 10


Harrogate 0 35 35 -35

Outside UK 0 29 29 0

Denbighshire 15 2 17 13

Stoke-On-Trent 12 3 15 9

1,926 851 2,777 1,104 52


Car (Driver)

• Driving is the most predominant method of commuting.

• Overall outflow has shown the lowest change (overall

changing by only 18).

• The top 3 outflows and inflows remain unchanged

between 2001 and 2011.

Cheshire West & Chester - Driving a car or van


Flintshire 8552 6477 15,029 2075

Cheshire East 7033 7983 15,016 -950

Wirral 8368 5247 13,615 3121

Warrington 2158 3445 5,603 -1287

Halton 2216 3366 5,582 -1150

Wrexham 2540 2047 4,587 493

Liverpool 1230 2653 3,883 -1423

Manchester 565 2283 2,848 -1718

Trafford 639 1514 2,153 -875

Denbighshire 802 387 1,189 415

Stockport 462 645 1,107 -183

34,565 36,047 70,612 -1,482 53

Warrington – Train

• Manchester’s outflows increased by around 50%. They

are over twice as high as the next highest outflows

(Liverpool) for both 2001 and 2011.

• Halton had the highest net change for both 2001 and

2011. Manchester the lowest.

• Westminster rises to 6th highest outflow (previously it was

not in the top 10).

Warrington - TrainWarrington - Train


Change

Manchester 184 743 927 -559

Liverpool 262 267 529 -5

Halton 185 25 210 160

St Helens 129 12 141 117


Salford 51 64 115 -13

Wigan 70 23 93 47


Trafford 38 41 79 -3

Wirral 51 11 62 40

Knowsley 42 3 45 39

Westminster, City of

London2 39 41 -37

1149 1304 2453 -15554

Warrington – Bus

• There is a ~30% increase in inflows between 2001 and

2011.

• Halton had both the highest inflows and outflows by 2011

(St Helens had higher inflows in 2001).

• Cheshire Easts’ inflows increased 5.5x and raised this

origin from 10th to 5th.

Warrington - Bus


Change

Halton 366 142 508 224

St Helens 298 63 361 235

Wigan 249 43 292 206

Liverpool 147 33 180 114


Trafford 30 78 108 -48

Cheshire East 83 18 101 65

Cheshire West & Chester 41 51 92 -10

Salford 53 24 77 29

Knowsley 62 13 75 49

1391 516 1907 875 55

Warrington – Car (Driver)

• There is roughly a 10% increase in car drivers from 2001 to

2011.

• Halton’s net change increases 6.7x. It also has both the 3rd

highest inflows and highest outflows for 2001 and 2011.

• Sefton drops from the 10 highest inflows, with

Manchester rising to 9th.

Warrington - Driving a car or van


Change

Halton 4572 4055 8,627 517

St Helens 5566 2236 7,802 3330

Wigan 5657 1788 7,445 3869

Cheshire West & Chester 3445 2158 5,603 1287

Liverpool 2520 2224 4,744 296

Manchester 1408 3180 4,588 -1772

Trafford 1698 2881 4,579 -1183

Cheshire East 1845 1819 3,664 26

Salford 1429 1920 3,349 -491

Knowsley 1197 1050 2,247 147

29337 23311 52648 6026

56

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