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Opportunities in Latin America: Chile Colombia Peru
Opportunities in Latin America: Chile Colombia Peru
CA VENTURES
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CA VENTURES
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CA VENTURES
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Latin American Overview
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Jones Lang LaSalle Research (2013)
Regional Market Analysis
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Strong Growth • Growth continues at a significantly
stronger pace than the world average
• Investors and occupiers have several options and risk profiles
Substantial Investment: • Strong macroeconomic
fundamentals • Expanding middle class
Slowing growth: • Falling commodity prices • Deceleration of China • Slower U.S. consumer growth
GDP Annual % Change
HIS Global Insights
5.0%
3.0%
2.6%
0.7%
1.8%
4.9%
3.6%
2.7%
0.9%
1.9%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Asia Pacific LatinAmerica
World EMEA Canada
2012
2013
Regional Market Analysis
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• Robust economic growth supports demand for commercial space
• Relatively large additions to supply
• Grade A space remains in short supply in many markets, leading rents to rise sharply over the past year
Fastest Growing Markets
• Bogota • Lima
Largest Office Markets
• Mexico City • Sao Paolo • Santiago
CHILE – MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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Slight decrease in GDP growth • 5.6% in 2012 • 4.2% in 2013 • 4.0% in 2014 (est.) Inflation • Within the target range of 2-4%
Political Environment • Elections in November • Dramatic change in economic policy is
unlikely
SANTIAGO, CHILE
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SANTIAGO CHILE Addition of 327,000 m2 in 2013
• Highest annual production ever seen in Santiago
Highest vacancy in 9 years
• 2012 - 2.7% • 2013 - 4.1% (Q2 2013)
Highest Rents
• Las Condes Large Incoming Supply
• Upward pressure on vacancy • In favor of tenants in the medium-
term
Jones Lang LaSalle Research (2013)
SANTIAGO, CHILE
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SANTIAGO CHILE University Student
Population
1 Duocuc Universidad Catolica (DoucUC) 43,622 2 Universidad de Chile (UCHILE) 31,000 3 Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile (UC) 25,000 4 Universidad Andres Bello (UNAB) 25,000 5 Universidad de Las Americas (UDLA) 24,400 6 Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USAH) 15,600 7 Universidad Mayor 15,000 8 Universidad de Desarrollo (UDD) 13,700 9 Universidad Diego Portales (UDP) 12,000 10 Universidad Central de Chile (UCENTRAL) 12,000 11 Universidad Tecnologica Metropolitana (UTEM) 7,700 12 Universidad Santo Tomas 6,800
13 Universidad Catolica Cardenal Silva Henriquez (UCSH) 5,500
14 Universidad Metrop. De Cs. De la Educacion (UMCE) 5,000 15 Universidad de Los Andes (UANDES) 4,500 16 Universidad Alberto Hurtado (UNAB) 4,000
250,822 Student Population
COLOMBIA – MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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Increased Growth & Demand • Year-over-year GDP between 2.5% - 5% • Will continue for next few years • Many buildings sold or leased during construction
phase Inflation • Within the target range of 2.5% • No upward pressure expected in short -medium
term
Peace Negotiations with FARC • Agreement on FARC’s political participation was
reached in Nov 2013 • Wide-reaching implications for improving security
situation
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Supply • 125,000 m2 in 2013 • 375,000 m2 between 2014-2015 • Total stock of corporate quality offices –
1,580,000 m2 (2013) Strong Demand
• Should push vacancy down to 4% by year’s end (6% in 2012)
• Strata-title buildings – difficult to find and negotiate large spaces
• Net Absorption should reach 135,000 m2 by end of 2013
Highest Rents
BOGOTA COLOMBIA
Jones Lang LaSalle Research (2013)
• Rising fast in El Norte – Class A pre-leasing $39-$45/m2/month CB Richard Ellis
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BOGOTA COLOMBIA
227,176 Student Population
University Student Population
1 Universidad Nacional de Colombia 26,000 2 Universidad Pontificia Universidad Javeriana 21,680 3 Universidad de Santo Tomás 18,818
4 Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas 15,676
5 Universidad de Los Andes 14,864 6 Universidad de La Salle 13,434 7 Politécnico Grancolombiano 13,000 8 Escuela Colombiana de Carreras Industriales 12,000 9 Universidad Católica de Colombia 11,162
10 Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas - Macarena 10,451
11 Universidad La Gran Colombia 9,612 12 Universidad del Rosario 8,900 13 Universidad Central 8,639 14 Universidad Antonio Nariño 7,507 15 Universidad Autónoma de Colombia 7,131 16 Universidad Manuela Beltrán 7,000 17 Universidad Piloto de Colombia 6,596 18 Universidad Colegio Mayor de Cundinamarca 4,896 19 Universidad de Rosario - Quinta de Mutis 4,023 20 Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales 2,739 21 Fundacion Universitaria Konrad Lorenz 2,200 22 Colegio de Estudios Superiores de Administración 848
PERU – MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
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Impressive GPD Growth • 5.9% in 2013 • Slowing – deceleration of China – 20% of
Peru’s exports Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) • 2013 - USD $4.1 billion in 1Q 2013 • 2012 record of USD $12.2 billion
Significant decrease in Debt-to-GDP Ratio • 46% - 2001 • 20% - 2013
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
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Office Construction Boom • 144,000 m2 in 2013 • 450,000 m2 in 2014-2015
Strong Office Absorption
• Due to strong macroeconomic fundamentals
• Production to outpace demand in 2015 – push vacancy rates up in the medium-term
High Demand / Limited Supply – Rapid Increase in Rents
• Class A - USD $22-$30/m2/month • Class AB – USD $18-$27/m2/month • Vacancy in Lima is among the lowest
in the region at ~ 2%
LIMA PERU
Jones Lang LaSalle Research (2013)
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LIMA PERU
330,127 Student Population
University Student Population
1 Universidad Alas Peruanas 58,458 2 Universidad Inca Garcilaso de la Vega 45,810 3 Universidad San Martin de Porres 32,600
4 Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos 28,645
5 Universidad Tecnológica del Perú 27,500 6 Universidad Nacional Federico Villareal 25,552 7 Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú 21,000
8 Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas 15,770
9 Universidad Ricardo Palma 15,768 10 Universidad de Lima 14,378 11 Universidad Cesar Vallejo 12,800 12 Universidad Nacional de Educación 11,322 13 Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola 8,450 14 Universidad de Piura 6,030 15 Universidad Norbert Wiener 5,100 16 Universidad Nacional Agraria la Molina 944
CA STUDENT LIVING INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY
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• Millions of students attending universities and colleges throughout Latin America
• Virtually no professionally managed, institutional quality student housing facilities to accommodate the current demand
• Growing middle class in Latin America has provided more opportunities for students to attend college Admission rates have rapidly increased over the last ten years
Why Latin America?
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THANK YOU
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