Chile Chile earthquake and and tsunami

Magnitude 8.8; 8.8; hypocenter 21 mileshypocenter 21 miles TsunamiTsunami

Deep-ocean Assessment Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamiand Reporting of Tsunami

Changed the Changed the planet’s axis by planet’s axis by three inchesthree inches•Large mass of rock Large mass of rock movedmoved•Nearby island Nearby island uplifted 2 feetuplifted 2 feet•Steep sloping Steep sloping subduction zonesubduction zone•Each day should be Each day should be 1.26 microsecond 1.26 microsecond shorter (hundredth of shorter (hundredth of a second)a second)

Chile: M 8.8 earthquake

Chile: aftershocksChile: aftershocks

Magnitudes: 6, 5.1, 4.9Magnitudes: 6, 5.1, 4.9 Tsunami warning warning

Predicting volcanic Predicting volcanic eruptions and reducing eruptions and reducing

the riskthe risk

What can scientists do to What can scientists do to reduce volcanic risk?reduce volcanic risk?

Mitigation: measures to Mitigation: measures to reduce riskreduce risk

Understanding the potential hazards Understanding the potential hazards Hazard mapsHazard maps Monitoring Monitoring Emergency plan in place and Emergency plan in place and

practicedpracticed Education of government officials Education of government officials

and publicand public

This process begins with the This process begins with the gathering of scientific gathering of scientific

informationinformation

Understanding the PastUnderstanding the Past The eruptive history is very The eruptive history is very

importantimportant.. Ancient volcanic deposits are dated Ancient volcanic deposits are dated

to determine frequency of eruptions.to determine frequency of eruptions.

An understanding of the An understanding of the potential hazardpotential hazard

Understanding of hazards: Understanding of hazards: provide definition and potential provide definition and potential

locationlocation

People will People will evacuate when evacuate when there is an there is an understanding of understanding of the potential the potential destruction from a destruction from a hazard.hazard.

Successful prediction of Mt. Successful prediction of Mt. Pinatubo, 1991Pinatubo, 1991

The Philippine The Philippine government used government used volcanic hazard videos volcanic hazard videos and other information and other information to educate the publicto educate the public

Successful evacuationSuccessful evacuation

Disaster Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Disaster Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Columbia, 1985Columbia, 1985

The people of Armero did not understand the potential The people of Armero did not understand the potential hazards of a laharhazards of a lahar

Government officials knew about the potential hazardGovernment officials knew about the potential hazard 23,000 fatalities23,000 fatalities

Hazard Map of Mt. Rainier: map indicates previous lahar and pyroclastic flows

Results: where one would expect these hazards to occur in the future

Map ancient volcanic deposits.

Lassen Peak, Hazard MapLassen Peak, Hazard Map

Vents that have Vents that have produced eruptionsproduced eruptions

Yellow- lava flow Yellow- lava flow zoneszones

Gold- ash fall zoneGold- ash fall zone Orange-combinedOrange-combined Pink-mudflowsPink-mudflows Aqua- floodsAqua- floods

Monitoring PrecursorsMonitoring Precursors Physical changes are known to precede a Physical changes are known to precede a

volcanic eruptionvolcanic eruption.. Name changes in volcanic activity. These Name changes in volcanic activity. These

changes are called precursors.changes are called precursors.

•Seismicity•Deformation•Snow melt•Water levels and chemistry•Gas emission •Small eruptions

Monitoring methodsMonitoring methods

Movement of magma into the system tends to Movement of magma into the system tends to inflate the volcano’s surfaceinflate the volcano’s surface

TiltmetersTiltmeters Global Positioning Stations (GPS)Global Positioning Stations (GPS) Radar interferometry- satelliteRadar interferometry- satellite

Monitoring VolcanoesMonitoring VolcanoesGround DeformationGround Deformation

DeformationDeformation

Direct Direct measurements measurements are made when are made when the volcano is the volcano is increasing in increasing in precursor activityprecursor activity

Tiltmeter

Global Positioning Satellites record vertical and horizontal movement of the volcano

Monitoring VolcanoesMonitoring VolcanoesSeismicitySeismicity

Magma fractures cooler rock causing Magma fractures cooler rock causing earthquakesearthquakes

An increase in the number of earthquakes An increase in the number of earthquakes may indicate an imminent eruptionmay indicate an imminent eruption

Mt. St. Helens

SeismometerSeismometer Seismic waves Seismic waves

move through the move through the crust and reach the crust and reach the seismometerseismometer

The seismometer The seismometer records the strength records the strength and type of and type of movementmovement

The information is The information is sent to a station sent to a station and recorded and recorded through radio waves through radio waves or satellite or satellite communicationcommunication

Seismometer placed near Mt. St. Helens

Monitoring the Long Valley Monitoring the Long Valley CalderaCaldera

Ground deformationGround deformation Resurgent dome Resurgent dome

grew is 80 grew is 80 centimeters from centimeters from the late 1970’s to the late 1970’s to 19991999

minor subsidence minor subsidence since 1999since 1999

Seismicity Seismicity averages 5-10 averages 5-10 earthquakes per earthquakes per day since 1999day since 1999

Occasionally Occasionally swarms of swarms of earthquakes cause earthquakes cause alarm alarm (200-300/week)(200-300/week)

generally less than generally less than M=2M=2

Monitoring the Long Valley Monitoring the Long Valley CalderaCaldera

Mt. St. HelensMt. St. Helens

Seismic activity Seismic activity increased in 2005increased in 2005

Increased Increased monitoring of monitoring of activityactivity

SeismicitySeismicity Visual inspectionsVisual inspections Gas emissionsGas emissions

Mt. St. HelensMt. St. Helens

Alert level 2: Alert level 2: activity increasing activity increasing that lead to a that lead to a hazardous volcanic hazardous volcanic eruptioneruption

Aviation level Aviation level orange- ash to orange- ash to 30,000 feet, 30,000 feet, traveling 100 milestraveling 100 miles

SeismicitySeismicity

With more than three With more than three stations the initial stations the initial rupture of the rupture of the earthquake is locatedearthquake is located

Outlining the size and Outlining the size and location of the magma location of the magma chamberchamber

Mt. St HelensMt. St Helens

Green dots represent activity Green dots represent activity in the past 24 hours.in the past 24 hours.

Gas Emissions: as magma Gas Emissions: as magma ascends, decompression ascends, decompression

melting releases gasmelting releases gas

Sulfur dioxide cloud, three hours after eruption

Direct and indirect Direct and indirect measurementsmeasurements

Increase in gas emissions Increase in gas emissions may indicate an imminent may indicate an imminent eruptioneruption

Mt. St. HelensMt. St. Helens

Volcanic watch

Carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide escape from the escape from the magma chambermagma chamber

Associated with faults Associated with faults that act as pathwaysthat act as pathways

50-150 tons per day 50-150 tons per day since 1996since 1996

level remains the level remains the samesame

Horseshoe lakeHorseshoe lake

Monitoring the Long Valley Monitoring the Long Valley CalderaCaldera

Gas EmissionsGas Emissions Direct sampling is Direct sampling is

completed by completed by collecting the gas collecting the gas in a liquid in a liquid

Analysis is done Analysis is done at a laboratoryat a laboratory

Composite satellite image of ash produced from Mt. Spur, Alaska over a one week period

Satellite images can monitor movement of ash in Satellite images can monitor movement of ash in the atmosphere. Ash abrades windows and can the atmosphere. Ash abrades windows and can

cause engine failurecause engine failure

Satellite sensors are able to Satellite sensors are able to detect increased temperatures detect increased temperatures before an eruptionbefore an eruption

Used for remote active Used for remote active volcanoes or if seismicity does volcanoes or if seismicity does not precede an eruptionnot precede an eruption

Thermal Change indicates magma moving closer Thermal Change indicates magma moving closer to the surfaceto the surface

Pavlov Volcano, Alaska

Lahar Warning SystemLahar Warning System

Sensors detect high frequency vibrations Sensors detect high frequency vibrations produced by lahars moving down a stream produced by lahars moving down a stream channelchannel

Sensors are placed downstream from Sensors are placed downstream from volcano but upstream from populationvolcano but upstream from population

Warning SystemWarning System

Warning SystemWarning System

NormalNormal: Typical background activity; : Typical background activity; non-eruptive statenon-eruptive state

AdvisoryAdvisory: Elevated unrest above : Elevated unrest above known background activityknown background activity

Watch: Watch: Heightened/escalating Heightened/escalating unrest with increased potential for unrest with increased potential for eruptive activity eruptive activity

Warning: Warning: Highly hazardous eruption Highly hazardous eruption underway or imminentunderway or imminent

Aviation Warning Aviation Warning SystemSystem

Green: normal activityGreen: normal activity Yellow: exhibiting signs of elevated Yellow: exhibiting signs of elevated

unrestunrest Orange: heightened unrest with Orange: heightened unrest with

increased likelihood of eruption (specify increased likelihood of eruption (specify ash plume height)ash plume height)

Red: eruption’s forecast to be imminent Red: eruption’s forecast to be imminent with significant emission of ash into the with significant emission of ash into the atmosphere (specify ash plume height)atmosphere (specify ash plume height)

Educating the PublicEducating the Public

CommunicationCommunication

Most important: think of the disasters in the past 6 years

Volcanic Disaster Volcanic Disaster Assistance ProgramAssistance Program

The primary purpose is to save lives in The primary purpose is to save lives in developing countries.developing countries.

Works with the Office of /Foreign Works with the Office of /Foreign disaster Assistance disaster Assistance

U.S. Agency for International U.S. Agency for International DevelopmentDevelopment

Volcanic Disaster Volcanic Disaster Assistance ProgramAssistance Program

The Volcanic Disaster The Volcanic Disaster Assistance Program was Assistance Program was developed after the 1985 developed after the 1985 eruption of Nevada del eruption of Nevada del Ruiz. Ruiz.

Since 1986, the response Since 1986, the response team organized and team organized and operated by the U.S.G.S. operated by the U.S.G.S. responds globally to responds globally to eminent probable volcanic eminent probable volcanic eruptions.eruptions.

Volcanic Disaster Volcanic Disaster Assistance ProgramAssistance Program

Nevada del Ruiz lahar that killed 23.000 people.

Communication to PublicCommunication to Public

Increase in seismic Increase in seismic activity in 1996activity in 1996

AlaskaAlaska Prevent evacuation Prevent evacuation

of 1,000 residentsof 1,000 residents Prevent closing of Prevent closing of

fishing industryfishing industry

The eruption of Rabaul, Papua The eruption of Rabaul, Papua New Guinea, September, 1994.New Guinea, September, 1994.

Residents who witnessed the 1937 eruption Residents who witnessed the 1937 eruption explained what occurredexplained what occurred

Education of the local population through Education of the local population through community groupscommunity groups

Successful evacuation due to following the Successful evacuation due to following the planplan

Real time monitoringReal time monitoring

Successful PredictionSuccessful Prediction

Mount Pinatubo, 1991Mount Pinatubo, 1991

Approximately 330,000 people evacuated prior to the eruption

Evaluation of RiskEvaluation of Risk

Zones of highest to lowest risk Zones of highest to lowest risk should be identifiedshould be identified

Urban planning should take in Urban planning should take in account the areas of highest riskaccount the areas of highest risk

These areas should be evacuated These areas should be evacuated firstfirst

Applying the Applying the VVolcano olcano EExplosivity xplosivity IIndexndex

Mt. Pinatubo- 6-7Mt. Pinatubo- 6-7 Amount of property damageAmount of property damage

PopulationPopulation This equates to the amount of riskThis equates to the amount of risk

RiskRisk

Evaluation of Volcanic RiskEvaluation of Volcanic Risk UUnited nited NNations ations EEducational, ducational, SScientific cientific

and and CCultural ultural OOrganization-rganization-UNESCOUNESCO Risk=(value)x(vulnerability)x(hazard)Risk=(value)x(vulnerability)x(hazard)

Value=Value= # of lives, monetary goods in # of lives, monetary goods in areaarea

Vulnerability=Vulnerability=% of lives or goods % of lives or goods likely to be lost in a given eventlikely to be lost in a given event

Hazard=Hazard=based on the based on the VVolcanic olcanic EExplosivity xplosivity IIndex- ndex- VEIVEI

Volcanic Explosivity IndexVolcanic Explosivity Index

Volume of Volume of materialmaterial

Eruption column Eruption column heightheight

Eruptive styleEruptive style How long the How long the

major eruptive major eruptive burst lastedburst lasted

Plinian: 5-7; 1993 Lascar Volcano, Chile

Hawaiian: 0-2

Tambora eruption, 1815: Tambora eruption, 1815: VEI 7VEI 7

Mt. Vesuvius Mt. Vesuvius produced a VEI 5 produced a VEI 5 eruption in 79 CE. eruption in 79 CE.

There are now 3 There are now 3 million people living million people living on and near this on and near this volcano. volcano.

Less than 1% chance Less than 1% chance for another eruption for another eruption this size in the next this size in the next 10 years10 years

High risk coefficient High risk coefficient due to the high due to the high population densitypopulation density

Evaluation Evaluation of Riskof Risk

Mt. Vesuvius, Pliny

Vesuvius Vesuvius EruptsErupts

Computer Computer simulations help simulations help understand which understand which areas would be areas would be affected firstaffected first

Those Those communities communities should be should be evacuated firstevacuated first

Mt. Vesuvius, Areas of RiskMt. Vesuvius, Areas of Risk

Emergency plan assumes that there can be a 20 day warning

Without warningWithout warning

Estimated 15-20,000 casualtiesEstimated 15-20,000 casualties What do you think?What do you think?

1944 eruption

MitigationMitigation

Understanding the potential hazards Understanding the potential hazards Hazard mapsHazard maps Monitoring Monitoring Emergency plan in place and practicedEmergency plan in place and practiced Education of government officials and Education of government officials and

publicpublic Communication clear between scientists, Communication clear between scientists,

government officials and the publicgovernment officials and the public