A very short summary of: 1. the key elements of China’s economy, education and R&D and the developments to be expected by 2020; 2. the cooperation situation with China between Switzerland, key nations and universities in educational and scientific terms; 3. the EPFL situation and perspectives in China.
China for EPFL – January 2013 page 1 of 34 CHINA 101: What university representatives and others active in Education and Research need to know! Nicolas Musy, EPFL representative, Shanghai, China A very short summary of: the key elements of China’s economy, education and R&D and the developments to be expected by 2020 the cooperation situation with China between Switzerland, key nations and universities in educational and scientific terms the EPFL situation and perspectives in China
Transcript
China for EPFL – January 2013 page 1 of 34
CHINA 101: What university representatives and others active in
Education and Research need to know!
Nicolas Musy, EPFL representative, Shanghai, China
A very short summary of:
the key elements of China’s economy, education and R&D and the developments to be expected by 2020
the cooperation situation with China between Switzerland, key nations and universities in educational and scientific terms
the EPFL situation and perspectives in China
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Content
I. China 2020 • Economy
• Science, Technology & Innovation
• Education & Academic System
• Risks
II. Sino-Swiss Exchanges
III. What are Others Doing?
IV. EPFL Situation & Achievements in China
V. Some Concluding Remarks • EPFL in China Assessment
• Personal Comments: possible strategies and opportunities for EPFL
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I. China 2020
1. Economy – The Largest Market in the World
• After the agricultural productivity development of the 1980’s and the export led growth
of the 1990’s, the current decade sees the rise of a middle and an upper class, which is expected to drive more and more the economic development in China.
• No 1 economy in the world by 2020 in PPP and in absolute US$ by 2030 (US National Intelligence Council reported by Bloomberg, 10 Dec 2012)
• The largest automotive market. The largest mobile phone & internet market. The
largest wind power plants market
• 2.7 Millionaires in 2012, 100 more every day. Second largest number of billionaires (about 100). Expected to become the biggest luxury market in 2015.
• The largest middle class in the world in 2020 (McKinsey, March 2012)
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2. Economy – The Workshop of the World
• Production Price Index (PPI) only 23% higher than in 1996 (UBS) while manufacturing salaries have increased over 400% since then (Int. Labor Org.).
• Production costs in China are at the same level in December 2012 as in December 2010 (UBS) despite considerable wages increases.
• The largest migration in human history: 142 Mio to move to cities by 2020 (McKinsey, Nov 2012), another 100 Mio. expected to leave the countryside until 2030.
• Despite minimal wages expected to increase by 80-90% from 2011 to 2015 (five year plan), potential productivity increases from automation is far superior. China is expecting to be the largest robot market in 2013 (ahead of Japan & Korea). Low production costs to stay so till 2020, at least.
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3. S&T and Innovation – The Way Ahead for Further Development
China was the world technological leader from the 6th to 15th century. Japan never was … (Most key modernization inventions allowing the Renaissance to start in Europe where made in China: compass, printing, gun powder, clocks, naval technologies, …)
China’s ability to research and innovate has been recognized by the leadership (composed in majority of engineers by training) as a top priority for the country to: • continue growing with higher added-value activities and avoid the “middle income
trap” • solve its long term environmental energetic and development challenges • remain internationally competitive in all aspects (in production technologies as future
production is increasingly carried out by intelligent robots, ICT & internet technologies while controlling content, indepedant military technologies, …)
4. S&T and Innovation – National Medium and Long-Term S&T Plan 2006-2020
• Achieve 2.5% of GDP in R&D expenditures by 2020. (2.2% by 2015. Currently 1.84%)
• 60% of GDP growth is generated by innovation
• Reducing technology imports to 30% of total technology needs
China’s success depends on becoming as much a giant in S&T as economically.
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Source:
Knowledge Networks and Nations, Global Scientific Collaboration in the 21st Century
The Royal Society, March 2011
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Annual Publications in the Web of Science Thomson Reuters Research 2009
Source:
Knowledge Networks and Nations, Global Scientific Collaboration in the 21st Century
The Royal Society, March 2011
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“contrary to the typical picture in OECD countries, the R&D efforts are mainly development activities. Some 70% of the R&D is experimental work, while only 6% is basic research” “With the new emphasis on innovation, basic research is targeted to reach 9%” (Partnering with a future superpower: Key issues of Chinese science and technology, Manfred Horvat, BMVIT and BMWF, AT and Svend Remøe, Research Council of Norway, September 2012)
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Rank Country Expenditures on R&D
(billions of US$, PPP)
% of GDP PPP
Year Share of Total Global R&D Spending
1 United States 405.3 2.7% 2011 2010 2011 2012
2 China 251.8 1.84% 2011 Americas 37.8% 36.9% 36.0% 3 Japan 144.1 3.3% 2011 U.S. 32.8% 32.0% 31.1% 4 Germany 69.5 2.3% 2011 Asia 34.3% 35.5% 36.7% 5 South Korea 44.8 3.0% 2011 Japan 11.8% 11.4% 11.2% 6 France 42.2 1.9% 2011 China 12.0% 13.1% 14.2% 7 United Kingdom 38.4 1.7% 2011 India 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 8 India 36.1 0.9% 2011 Europe 24.8% 24.5% 24.1% 9 Canada 24.3 1.8% 2011 Rest of
15 Australia 15.9 1.7% 2011 16 Sweden 11.9 3.3% 2011 17 Netherlands 10.8 1.6% 2011 18 Israel 9.4 4.2% 2011 19 Austria 8.3 2.5% 2011 20
Switzerland 7.5 2.3% 2011
Chinese Companies Huawei and ZTE are regularly among the top 3 international patent filers.
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PCT international applications – Top 15 countries
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5. Education & Academic System – Historical Challenges
"Education must face modernization, the world, and the future." Deng Xiaoping
A good education system is an natural corollary need of the S&T and eventually social development plan of China. The education system faces cultural in addition to the obvious challenges of educated a very large number of citizens in a short time, compounded with the 10 years of cultural revolutions (1966-1976) when almost all universities ceased to function.
• China has been a meritocracy since 1.5 millenium. As well, for millenia, poverty,
catastrophes and shortages of all sorts have plagued the bottom rungs of the society. (Today still over 100 Mio. Chinese live below the UN poverty line of 1.25 USD/day (in 2005 PPP USD).
• Imperial officials were appointed only based on passing the Civil Servant Examination, based on study and understanding of the Classics. As a result only scholars would become officials, so that social status would only be achieved through education.
• For the vast majority of the Chinese, traditionally and because they are reminded daily
by the low wages that unskilled workers earn, education is the ladder to an at least acceptable (if not good) life.
• Studying for the purpose of passing exams and rote learning is also deeply ingrained in the Chinese education culture. Today, access to good universities is determined solely based on the score achieved when sitting the university entrance exam (gaokao).
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6. High Performing High-School Students
Source: The Economist online “An International Report Card” Dec. 7, 2010, OECD PISA 2009
The competitiveness of the Chinese university entrance exam and considerable efforts put into learning by Chinese pupils have brought them to the top of OECD rankings. (PISA, Programme for International Students Assessment, is conducted every 3 years.) 2012 results are not released; yet, the information available however apparently confirms the 2009 data. (China: the world’s most clever country?, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17585201 )
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7. Education & Academic System – Large Quantity Growth, Quality Suffers
• About 30 Mio. students in
2’000 tertiary institutions. (Hu Xile, 2012)
• About 6 Mio Bachelor, 0.5 Mio Masters and 64’000 PhD obtain their degrees every year. (Hu Xile, 2012)
• 75% of those taking the entrance exam get a place, 3 times more than 10 years ago. (Hu Xile, 2012)
• By 2020, 29% of the world graduates 25 to 34 years old will be Chinese. (University World News, 12 July 2012)
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• 100 universties receive special attention and funding under the “211 Program” (launched in 1995) and 39 are groomed to world class levels (“985 Program”, 1998) While there are excellent students and graduates, the education level of the majority of students is low compared to developped countries
• McKinsey estimates that 10% of the graduates have the qualification needed for international standard enterprises in China (foreign invested and renowned Chinese enterprises).
• The single children generation is often spoiled, generating unfavorable attitudes
8. Education & Academic System – 29% of World Graduates will be Chinese in 2020
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Source: OECD, Education Indicators in Focus, May 2012
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9. Education & Academic System – Overseas Students
• There are 430’000 Chinese students abroad, 36.5% are in the USA.
• 40% of graduate students enrolled in the USA are Chinese
• The number of Chinese students abroad have grown 24% per year in the past 3 years
• About one third of overseas students have returned to China.
• Cheating for undergraduate admissions in the USA is rampant:
“According to a 2010 report by Zinch China (…) 90% of recommendation letters from Chinese students are fake, 70% of college application essays are not written by the students, and half of all high school transcripts are falsified” (Time, Justin Bergman, 26 July 2012)
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10. Education & Academic System – the Skills Gap (McKinsey, November 2012)
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11. Education & Academic System – 2020 Reform
A first attempt at reform of the education system in 1993 did not reach its goals, possibly also because of the sensitive political nature of education. (1911, 1986, 1989 were events triggered by students demonstrations.)
In 2010 new reform plan over 10 years has been launched focusing on: • 4% of GDP spending on education in 2012 (2009: USA 5.4%, UK 5.6%, France 5.9%,
Switzerland 2009 5.5%, Germany 2009 5.1%, 2010: Japan 3.8%)
• Autonomy of universities, enrollment of students not solely on examination results
• Make China higher education internationally competitive
12. Education & Academic System – “985” Top Universities
The “985 Project” aims at developing key universities into world first-class universities. The project starts by selecting top universities, and signing contract for “co-development” with local government or ministries concerned. There are currently 39 universities in the first phase with three different level of investment:
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1st category: to become first-class in the world (USD 220 Mio over 3 years)
Tsinghua University and Peking University
2nd category: to become first-class in the nation, known in the world (USD 200 – 100 Mio over 3 years)
Zhejiang University, Nanjing University, Fudan University, Shanghai Jiaotong University, China University of Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Harbin Institute of Technolgy, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing Normal University, China People’s University , Tongji University, Lanzhou University, , Zhongshan University (Sun Yat-sen University), Shandong University, Jilin University, Wuhan University, Sichuan University, South China University of Technology.
3rd category: to become well-known in the nation, recognized in the world (USD 120 – 40 Mio over 3 years)
Nankai University, Tianjin University, Southeast University, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Xiameng University, Hunan University, Chongqing University, , Zhongnan University, Ocean Uni. of China, Dalian Institute of Technology, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, University of Electronics Science and Technology of China, Northeast University, Northwestern Polytechnical University, East China Normal University, Northwest A & F University, Minzu University of China, China Agricultural University, National University of Defense Technology.
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Below are the top 10 universities in overall ranking and by different disciplines: the universities of the 985 program universities are identified by the following colours: Red: 1st category Blue: 2nd category Orange: 3rd category
Tongji University is included since it is an EPFL partner. In the Times of Higher Education 2012-2013 ranking, only Peking University (No 46) and Tsinghua (No 52) make the top 200 list. Fudan and China University of Science and Technology are in the 201-225 list. Nanjing University make the 251-275 rank and Jiaotong University is in the 276-300 category. (EPFL is No 40 & ETHZ No 12)
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Rank 2013 New Rank
for comprehensive
Engineering Sciences Medicine Management Computer
Science and Technology
Life Sciences
1 Peking Uni. Tsinghua Uni Zhejiang Uni Peking Uni. Tsinghua Uni. Tsinghua Uni. Peking Uni. 2
Tsinghua Uni. Zhejiang Uni Tsinghua Uni Shanghai Jiaotong Uni Peking Uni.
National Uni.of Defense
Technology Fudan Uni.
3 Fudan Uni. Harbin Institute of
Tech. Shanghai
Jiaotong Uni Fudan Uni. Zhejiang Uni. Beijing University
5 Shanghai Jiaotong Uni Tianjin Uni. Fudan Uni Zhongshan Uni. Wuhan Uni. Harbin Institute of
Tech. Tsinghua
Uni. 6
Nanjing Uni South China University of Technology
Harbin Institute of Tech.
Huazhong Uni. of Sci. and
Tech. Nanjing Uni. Peking Uni. Northeast
Normal Uni.
7 Zhongshan Uni. Dalian Uni. of Sci.
and Tech. Nanjing Uni. Sichuan Uni. Renmin Uni. of China
Shanghai Jiaotong Uni.
Central South Uni.
8 Jilin Uni Southeast Uni. Zhongshan Uni
Capital Uni. of Medical
Sciences Zhongshan Uni. Nanjing Uni. Beijing
Normal Uni.
9
Wuhan Uni. Beijing University of
Aeronautics and Astronautics
Sichuan Uni. Central South Uni. Fudan Uni. Northeastern Uni.
Uni. of Science and Technology
of China 10 Uni. of Science
andTechnology of China
Northwestern Polytechnical
University
Huazhong Uni. of Sci. and Tech. Shandong Uni. Chongqing Uni. Huazhong Uni. of
Sci. and Tech. Lanzhou Uni.
Tongji Rank: 22 17 23 33 27 26 NA
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13. Education & Academic System – Academies of Science and Engineering
In addition to its universities and colleges, China has a system of academies focusing on research, lead by China’s most famous scientists (Academicians). The Academies (of Science and Engineering) also have own institutes and budgets. Some of the ground breaking research and best scientists work in Chinese Academies.
14. Education & Academic System – Funding & Granting
Competitive funding is mostly provided by
• Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) • Ministry of Science & Technology • Ministry of Education (China Scholarship Council) • National Science Foundation of China
(Funding of about USD 2.5 Bio. in 2012, a 20% increase over 2011)
Different other agencies fund only R&D related to their fields of interest (e.g. National Institute of Health, Department of defense and Department of Energy)
China’s services increasingly depend on private funding, and universities do not escape this trend: increasing university income comes from student fees and industry
Much funding is devoted to international cooperation and interesting projects proposed by a developed country or reputable institution are very carefully considered.
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15. Risks
China’s development is not without risks in the coming decades:
1. Environmental, energetic & health risks • Pollution and environmental damage caused by the development reduce natural
resources (farmland, water), generate considerable cleaning and health costs as well as unhappiness from the populations exposed to the risks.
• The 20th century western model of economic development cannot be applied to China: the world will run out of oil resources before China’s energy consumption per head reaches the American and European levels. As a result, China needs to develop an own model based on different technologies or face stalled growth and potential social turmoil.
• A pandemic (bird flu, for example) may isolate China, stall the development and
considerably damage China’s image in the world 2. Corruption & social inequalities
There is a potential for socio-political conflict caused by disparities (poor/rich and city/countryside) and exacerbated by corruption.
3. Aging population China’s demographics allow prediction showing China as one of the first country to grow old before having reached a developed status, i.e. before having gotten rich. However retirement pensions are calculated in order not to create liabilities to the
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state. Eventually the retirement age may need to be increased.
4. Financial crisis (non performing loans and assets) and economic issues Economic development, low levels of national debt (about 60% of GDP), currency controls and financial system improvements have considerably reduced the possibility of such a crisis, even after 2008.
5. Potential international conflicts
• Taiwan seems not to be much in conflict anymore • North Korea seems to be more ready to reform economically and follow China’s
lead • South China Sea conflicts will however intensify. The new leadership is probably
resolved to regain control of the Diaoyutai islands in its dispute with Japan.
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II. Sino-Swiss Exchanges
1. Sino Swiss Trade and Investment • An estimate of 1’500 Swiss live in the Mainland and about as many in Hong-Kong.
• Switzerland is well represented in China, mostly through multinationals. About 400
Swiss companies are established in China with about 800 subsidiaries. Swiss investments amount to about CHF 5 Bio.
• Swiss trade with China translate in a largely favorable commercial balance generated
by total Swiss exports of CHF 14 Bio. in 2011
. • Swiss exports to China
account for about 45% of watches and jewelry, 30% machinery instruments and equipment, 15% pharmaceuticals and chemicals and 10% others.
• China is the biggest single contributor to Swiss export growths since 2010.
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2. Swiss Research and Education Cooperation
In October 2006 Federal Councilor Calmy-Rey signed a MOU with the Ministry of Education to boost cooperation in education between Switzerland and China. This follows an MoU signed between the SER and the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology in November 2003 providing the base to the Sin-Swiss Science & Technology Cooperation (SSSTC) program
3. Government projects
• Sino-Swiss Science and Technology Cooperation (SSSTC) The SSSTC program is sponsored jointly by the Swiss State Secretariat for Education and Research (SER) and the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST). After a successful pilot phase (2004-2007) a first action phase (2008-2011) and a year of transition in 2012 (due to Swiss budget re-scheduling), the second phase 4 year phase is expected to start in 2013 with calls for joint-research, institutional partnerships and symposium.
• Sino-Swiss Eco Park
Promotion of Swiss clean technologies in a Chinese industrial park under development
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4. Presence of Swiss S&T in China and Perception by the Chinese Actors The presence and activities of the Swiss science education and technology actors in China have not yet succeded in projecting an image of Switzerland that renders justice to its considerable achievements in all aspects (education, research and innovate). Switzerland S&T is under-known and Swiss government representatives in China as well as Presence Suisse have recognized the need for a strong action in this field.
