China Research
Friday, July 13, 2018
Donald [email protected]
Neo Wang, [email protected]
China – Jun Auto Sales, Trade, Bank Credit Reassuring
1
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
News Tracker – Jul 13, 2018 -- 1 Yuan per USD (On vs. Off in basis point)
Rate CP Fixing On-shore Off-shore On vs. Off
7/13/2018 6.6727 6.6978 6.7185 -207
vs. Trump 1.6% 1.3% 1.2%
vs. Brexit -1.4% -1.7% -2.0%
vs. 8/10/15 -8.3% -7.3% -7.5%
1D Ago 6.6726 6.6678 6.6934 -256
2D Ago 6.6234 6.6826 6.7234 -408
3D Ago 6.6259 6.6340 6.6506 -166
4D Ago 6.6393 6.6160 6.6233 -73
5D Ago 6.6336 6.6427 6.6638 -211
1M Ago 6.4156 6.3979 6.3889 90
3M Ago 6.2898 6.2750 6.2723 27
End-2017 6.5342 6.5068 6.5143 -75
6M Ago 6.4932 6.4371 6.4305 66
1Y Ago 6.7802 6.7835 6.7819 16
2Y Ago 6.6891 6.6887 6.6899 -12
3Y Ago 6.1133 6.2084 6.2165 -81
4Y Ago 6.1469 6.2037 6.2039 -2
5Y Ago 6.1631 6.1382 6.1404 -22
Source: Bloomberg
CHINESE BUSINESS OVERSEAS
Key senators wrote a letter aimed at pushing Congress to
block Trump’s deal lifting a ban on ZTE. --- BBG, Jul 12
CONSUMER, CONSUMPTION & LUXURY
PBoC said restaurants and shops must not reject cash
payments, and businesses and individuals who have been
refusing to accept cash have one month to reverse that
policy or face punishment. --- BBG, Jul 13
FINANCIAL MARKET
China’s sovereign wealth fund is said to request permission
to invest in domestic stocks and bonds for the first time. ---
BBG, Jul 13
FISCAL, TAXATION & GOV'T FINANCE
State Council announced new rules to strengthen
management of urban railway projects to control high
amounts of debt at the local gov't level. --- Reuters, Jul 13
PBoC's research head said China's fiscal policy isn’t
proactive enough in 2018 and still has big room, overall
fiscal policy can’t be proactive without rise of deficit, and
fiscal policy lacks transparency, supervision, and tax break
policies benefit big companies more than small ones. ---
BBG, Jul 13
Several Chinese provinces are encouraging PPP projects
involved in tourism, environmental protection and
urbanization sectors. --- SSN, BBG, Jul 12
FOREIGN BUSINESSES IN CHINA
Apple will launch a $300 mln clean energy fund in China,
working with its suppliers to invest in renewable energy
projects that could power close to 1 mln homes. --- Reuters,
Jul 12
FOREIGN RELATIONS
Mnuchin: I would say to the extent that the Chinese want
to make serious efforts to make structural changes, I and
the administration are available any time to discuss those. --
- Reuters, Jul 12
Chinese Vice Commerce Minister said the U.S . has started
a trade war and China will defend itself. --- Reuters, Jul 12
Chinese Vice Commerce Minister said WTO is still capable
of dealing with any complaints that China is violating
international trade rules despite the U.S . claims to the
contrary. --- BBG, Jul 12
Chinese customs spokesman said trade tariffs will have
impact on China-U.S . trade and China is closely
monitoring that. --- BBG, Jul 13
Chinese Vice Foreign Minister said the U.S .'s accusations
against China on trade were groundless and that
Washington’s actions are not supported by the
international community. --- Reuters, Jul 12
Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan met with Elon Musk
in Beijing. --- SCMP, Jul 13
FOREIGN TRADE
Senior Indian gov't official said Chinese officials have been
inspecting Indian rice mills to import non-basmati rice. ---
Reuters, Jul 13
INDUSTRIES & COMPANIES
China National Textile and Apparel Council said it was
deeply concerned about the escalating trade friction
between the U.S . and China. --- Reuters, Jul 12
LEISURE & ENTERTAINMENT
State taxation administration has asked taxpayers in the
film industry to pay taxes according to law, and vowed to
punish those who violated tax rules. --- BBG, Jul 13
OUTBOUND INVESTMENT
July 13, 2018
2
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
News Tracker – Jul 13, 2018 -- 2 Airbus is said to be in talks with HNA to ease a standoff
over late payments that halted the delivery of passenger
jets. --- Reuters, BBG, Jul 12
PRIVATE SECTOR & SMEs
MoF said China will allow more small companies to enjoy
tax breaks by raising the upper limit of annual taxable
income to 1 mln yuan from 500,000 yuan. --- BBG, Jul 13
PROPERTY & LAND MARKETS, HOUSING
Chinese Housing Ministry said gov'ts in provinces or cities
with upward pressure on home prices should timely adjust
compensation policy in shantytown redevelopment and it
will strictly control costs in shantytown redevelopment. ---
Sina, BBG, Jul 12
STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES (SOE)
Six China's biggest SOEs have drawn up plans to reduce
debt and leverage in the coming two years. --- CSJ, Reuters,
Jul 12
July 13, 2018
3
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
Jun Exports, Imports, Trade Balance (in USD)
Exports were $217 bln, +11.2% y/y. SA’d,
+0.5% m/m. May, +12.3% y/y. 2Q18
+11.9% y/y, vs. +13.9% in 1Q18, and +9.7%
in 4Q17.
Imports were $175 bln, +14.1% y/y. SA’d,
-6.7% m/m. May, +26.0% y/y. 2Q18 +20.5%
y/y, vs. +19.2% in 1Q18, and +12.8% in
4Q17.
Trade Balance.
+$41.6 bln in Jun. +$381 bln in YTD,
-21.3% y/y. Record single month high
was +$61.3 bln in Oct 2015.
Trade Surplus. 2017, -17.7% y/y to $419
bln, vs. 2016 at 510 bln, 2015 at $594 bln.
2016, -14.2% y/y. 2015, +55% y/y, to a
record high.
Total Trade.
2015, -8.1% y/y, vs. target at “about
+6.0%”.
2016, -6.8% y/y, vs. no numeric target,
only “stable to up”.
2017, $4,107 bln, +11.4% y/y. Target was
“recover and improve” per MofCom.
Definitely met target, if not exceeding it.
2018 target little unchanged at NPC as
“stabilize and improve.”
Jun YTD, +16.0% y/y.
12MMS, +13.2% y/y.
Jun Trade Bal. $41.6 bln
Our Call $35.6 bln
Mid. Estimate $27.3 bln
Jun Imports +14.1% y/y
Our Call +22.4% y/y
Mid. Estimate +22.0% y/y
Jun Exports +11.2% y/y
Our Call +14.7% y/y
Mid. Estimate +10.8% y/y
July 13, 2018
4
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
Trade and Capital Flows, Export Flood
China exporting overcapacity as demand
wanes at home and to save jobs.
SOE steel makers are major job agencies.
Teapot refineries are playing a bigger role.
Hong Kong a way-station for flow of hot
money ‘in’ and capital flight ‘out’ of China.
Precious Stones and Metal has big unit
value, ideal for covert capital movements.
July 13, 2018
5
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
China Total Vehicle SalesMonthly Total, NSA
Source: CAAM, DataInsight
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Million Units
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Historical Seasonality
[email protected] Evercore ISI
Jun Total Vehicle Sales 2.27 mln units vs.
2.29 mln in May, 2.32 mln in Apr, 2.66 mln
in Mar, 1.72 mln in Feb, 2.81 mln in Jan.
Data very seasonal.
•Jun +4.7% y/y, vs. May +9.1%, Apr
+11.3%, Mar +4.5%, Jan+Feb +1.5%.
•2Q18 +8.3% y/y, vs. 1Q18 +2.6%, 4Q17
+0.9%, 3Q17 +5.8%.
2017 +3.6% to 28.9 mln, vs. 2016
+13.7%, 2015 +4.6%, 2014 +6.8%.
Passenger Vehicles
•Jun +2.3% y/y, vs. May +7.9%, Apr
+11.2%, Mar +3.4%, Jan+Feb +2.1%.
•2Q18 +7.0% y/y, vs. 1Q18 +2.6%, 4Q17
-0.1%, 3Q17 +4.0%,.
•SA’d m/m, Jun +2.1%, vs. May +1.0%.
(Jan=Feb before SA)
Commercial Vehicles
•Jun +17.5% y/y, vs. May +15.5%, Apr
+11.8%, Mar +9.2%, Jan+Feb -2.1%.
•2Q18 +14.9% y/y, vs. 1Q18 +2.7%,
4Q17 +8.4%, 3Q17 +18.5%.
•SA’d m/m, Jun +3.4%, vs. May +11.7%.
(Jan=Feb before SA)
Note. CAAM Vehicle ‘sales’ are actually
deliveries from producers to dealers, not
sales to end consumers.
Jun Vehicle Sales – Passenger & Commercial
2.1 2.43.2
4.35.1 5.8
7.28.8
9.413.6
18.0 18.519.3
22.023.5
24.6
27.928.9
29.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Million Units
China Total Vehicle Sales
Source: CAAM, EVRISI Estimates
Annual Units Sold from Manufactures to Dealers
Evercore [email protected]
2018 Estimate as of 1Q
Total +4.9%
Passenger +4.5%
Commercial +7.5%
2017, +3.6% y/y
2018 CAAM Estimate
+3% y/y
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% Y/Y
Passenger (Sedans, SUVs, MPVs, Minivans)
Commercial (Trucks, Buses, Towtrucks)
Latest Jun: 2.3%
Latest Jun: 17.5%
China Vehicle Sales 2 ComponentsPassenger Vehicles and Commercial Vehicles, %Y/Y, NSA
Evercore [email protected]
Source: CAAM, CEIC, EVRISI Calculations
Note: Assuming Jan=Feb=0.5*Feb YTD to minimize distortion
by shifting timing of Chinese Lunar New Year holiday.
Note: Lunar New Year distortion
to Jan and Feb numbers
Jun Vehicle Sales 2.27 mln
Our Call 2.27 mln
July 13, 2018
6
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
China’s M2 rose 8.0% y/y in Jun, vs. 8.3% in May.
2017 M2 +8.1%, vs. +12.0% target.
2016 M2 +11.3%, vs. +13.0% target.
2015 M2 +13.3%, vs. +12.0% Target.
2014 M2 +12.2%, vs. +13.0% Target.
2013 M2 +13.6%, vs. +13.0% Target.
2012 M2 +13.8%, vs. +14.0% Target.
Data Note: Starting in October 2011 PBoC expanded its definition of M2, but failed to
revise historical numbers -- or to describe the nature of the revisions. As a result,
calculated and reported % Y/Y growth were discontinuous for much of 2012, but
synced up after a year.
See breakdown of China Money Supply next page; ask us for data
Jun Money Supply (M2)
Jun M2 8.0% y/y
Our Call 8.5% y/y
Consensus 8.4% y/y
July 13, 2018
7
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
China Money Supply Breakdown China Money Supply, billion yuan % Share in M2 % Y/Y
M0Demand
Deposit
Saving
Deposit
Time
Deposit
Other
DepositM0
Demand
Deposit
Saving
Deposit
Time
Deposit
Other
DepositM0
Demand
Deposit
Saving
Deposit
Time
Deposit
Other
Deposit
Jan-09 4,108 12,413 16,521 33,092 23,322 6,356 3,413 49,614 8% 25% 33% 67% 47% 13% 7% 100% Jan-09 12.0 5.0 6.7 25.9 33.8 34.3 (17.0) 18.8 (19.3)
Feb-09 3,514 13,101 16,615 34,056 23,749 6,400 3,907 50,671 7% 26% 33% 67% 47% 13% 8% 100% Feb-09 8.3 11.3 10.6 25.8 29.2 30.2 3.8 20.4 (15.2)
Mar-09 3,375 14,279 17,654 35,409 24,307 6,848 4,254 53,063 6% 27% 33% 67% 46% 13% 8% 100% Mar-09 10.9 18.6 17.0 30.2 29.7 29.9 34.1 25.5 (13.2)
Apr-09 3,426 14,396 17,821 36,227 24,424 7,241 4,563 54,048 6% 27% 33% 67% 45% 13% 8% 100% Apr-09 11.3 19.1 17.5 30.6 29.6 35.2 29.0 26.0 (13.1)
May-09 3,356 14,847 18,203 36,624 24,615 7,306 4,703 54,826 6% 27% 33% 67% 45% 13% 9% 100% May-09 11.2 20.5 18.7 29.6 29.1 34.4 25.0 25.7 (10.9)
Jun-09 3,364 15,950 19,314 37,578 24,938 7,576 5,064 56,892 6% 28% 34% 66% 44% 13% 9% 100% Jun-09 11.5 28.0 24.8 30.4 28.3 35.5 34.0 28.5 (5.6)
Jul-09 3,424 16,165 19,589 37,721 24,894 7,549 5,281 57,310 6% 28% 34% 66% 43% 13% 9% 100% Jul-09 11.6 30.0 26.4 29.5 26.4 35.2 37.4 28.4 (3.1)
Aug-09 3,441 16,599 20,039 37,630 24,850 7,659 5,121 57,670 6% 29% 35% 65% 43% 13% 9% 100% Aug-09 11.5 31.7 27.7 29.0 24.1 33.8 49.5 28.5 (1.2)
Sep-09 3,679 16,492 20,171 38,370 25,572 8,367 4,431 58,541 6% 28% 34% 66% 44% 14% 8% 100% Sep-09 16.0 33.0 29.5 29.2 24.9 37.1 41.8 29.3 0.3
Oct-09 3,573 17,182 20,755 37,910 25,305 7,987 4,618 58,664 6% 29% 35% 65% 43% 14% 8% 100% Oct-09 14.1 36.5 32.0 28.2 21.8 37.7 54.0 29.5 3.9
Nov-09 3,634 17,615 21,249 38,211 25,387 7,990 4,834 59,460 6% 30% 36% 64% 43% 13% 8% 100% Nov-09 15.0 39.6 34.6 27.2 20.1 36.1 59.0 29.7 7.5
Dec-09 3,825 18,320 22,145 38,878 26,077 8,228 4,317 61,022 6% 30% 36% 64% 43% 13% 7% 100% Dec-09 11.8 37.7 32.4 25.2 19.7 37.7 39.4 27.7 7.2
Jan-10 4,076 18,883 22,959 39,602 26,324 8,661 4,617 62,561 7% 30% 37% 63% 42% 14% 7% 100% Jan-10 (0.8) 52.1 39.0 19.7 12.9 36.3 35.3 26.1 19.3
Feb-10 4,287 18,142 22,429 41,179 27,909 8,928 4,342 63,607 7% 29% 35% 65% 44% 14% 7% 100% Feb-10 22.0 38.5 35.0 20.9 17.5 39.5 11.2 25.5 14.1
Mar-10 3,908 19,032 22,940 42,055 28,105 9,156 4,794 64,995 6% 29% 35% 65% 43% 14% 7% 100% Mar-10 15.8 33.3 29.9 18.8 15.6 33.7 12.7 22.5 11.2
Apr-10 3,966 19,425 23,391 42,265 28,065 9,467 4,733 65,656 6% 30% 36% 64% 43% 14% 7% 100% Apr-10 15.8 34.9 31.3 16.7 14.9 30.8 3.7 21.5 14.6
May-10 3,865 19,784 23,650 42,685 28,117 9,623 4,945 66,335 6% 30% 36% 64% 42% 15% 7% 100% May-10 15.2 33.3 29.9 16.6 14.2 31.7 5.1 21.0 13.4
Jun-10 3,890 20,168 24,058 43,334 28,813 9,762 4,759 67,392 6% 30% 36% 64% 43% 14% 7% 100% Jun-10 15.7 26.4 24.6 15.3 15.5 28.9 (6.0) 18.5 9.2
Jul-10 3,954 20,112 24,066 43,339 28,715 9,774 4,850 67,405 6% 30% 36% 64% 43% 14% 7% 100% Jul-10 15.5 24.4 22.9 14.9 15.4 29.5 (8.1) 17.6 8.0
Aug-10 3,992 20,442 24,434 44,317 28,879 10,023 5,414 68,751 6% 30% 36% 64% 42% 15% 8% 100% Aug-10 16.0 23.2 21.9 17.8 16.2 30.9 5.7 19.2 4.2
Sep-10 4,185 20,197 24,382 45,265 29,928 10,746 4,591 69,647 6% 29% 35% 65% 43% 15% 7% 100% Sep-10 13.8 22.5 20.9 18.0 17.0 28.4 3.6 19.0 2.9
Oct-10 4,165 21,167 25,331 44,646 29,242 10,287 5,118 69,978 6% 30% 36% 64% 42% 15% 7% 100% Oct-10 16.6 23.2 22.1 17.8 15.6 28.8 10.8 19.3 4.3
Nov-10 4,225 21,717 25,942 45,092 29,397 10,365 5,330 71,034 6% 31% 37% 63% 41% 15% 8% 100% Nov-10 16.3 23.3 22.1 18.0 15.8 29.7 10.3 19.5 4.1
Dec-10 4,463 22,199 26,662 45,923 30,330 10,586 5,007 72,585 6% 31% 37% 63% 42% 15% 7% 100% Dec-10 16.7 22.1 21.2 18.9 16.3 28.7 16.0 19.7 2.3
Jan-11 5,806 20,370 26,177 47,212 31,842 14,305 1,065 73,388 8% 28% 36% 64% 43% 19% 1% 100% Jan-11 42.5 7.4 13.6 19.3 21.0 24.3 (31.3) 17.2 (5.8)
Feb-11 4,727 21,193 25,920 47,693 32,094 14,099 1,500 73,613 6% 29% 35% 65% 44% 19% 2% 100% Feb-11 10.3 15.5 14.5 16.4 15.0 20.8 5.5 15.7 (1.9)
Mar-11 4,485 22,141 26,626 49,188 33,131 14,878 1,179 75,813 6% 29% 35% 65% 44% 20% 2% 100% Mar-11 14.8 15.1 15.0 17.5 17.9 23.5 (31.6) 16.6 (2.5)
Apr-11 4,549 22,128 26,677 49,062 32,667 15,331 1,063 75,738 6% 29% 35% 65% 43% 20% 1% 100% Apr-11 14.7 12.5 12.9 16.7 16.4 22.6 (29.0) 15.3 (3.8)
May-11 4,460 22,469 26,929 49,412 32,747 15,637 1,028 76,341 6% 29% 35% 65% 43% 20% 1% 100% May-11 15.4 12.2 12.7 16.4 16.5 22.7 (35.8) 15.1 (3.7)
Jun-11 4,448 23,018 27,466 50,616 33,757 15,930 929 78,082 6% 29% 35% 65% 43% 20% 1% 100% Jun-11 14.4 12.8 13.1 17.4 17.2 23.6 (34.5) 15.9 (4.4)
Jul-11 4,518 22,536 27,055 50,238 33,107 16,032 1,098 77,292 6% 29% 35% 65% 43% 21% 1% 100% Jul-11 14.3 11.0 11.6 16.4 15.3 24.5 (28.2) 14.7 (4.8)
Aug-11 4,578 22,762 27,339 50,746 33,142 16,385 1,219 78,085 6% 29% 35% 65% 42% 21% 2% 100% Aug-11 14.7 10.5 11.2 14.9 14.8 23.2 (37.2) 13.6 (3.7)
Sep-11 4,715 22,005 26,719 52,021 34,179 17,111 732 78,741 6% 28% 34% 66% 43% 22% 1% 100% Sep-11 12.7 8.1 8.9 15.3 14.2 21.6 (31.2) 13.0 (6.5)
Oct-11 4,658 22,997 27,655 54,028 33,450 16,237 4,341 81,683 6% 28% 34% 66% 41% 20% 5% 100% Oct-11 11.9 7.7 8.4 15.3 14.4 19.3 9.1 12.9 (6.9)
Nov-11 4,732 23,410 28,142 54,408 33,663 16,264 4,481 82,549 6% 28% 34% 66% 41% 20% 5% 100% Nov-11 12.0 7.0 7.8 15.5 14.5 17.8 14.5 12.7 (7.7)
Dec-11 5,075 23,910 28,985 56,174 35,280 16,662 4,233 85,159 6% 28% 34% 66% 41% 20% 5% 100% Dec-11 13.8 6.7 7.9 16.8 16.3 18.1 17.7 13.6 (9.0)
Jan-12 5,982 21,019 27,001 58,589 37,056 16,595 4,937 85,590 7% 25% 32% 68% 43% 19% 6% 100% Jan-12 3.0 3.2 3.2 17.2 16.4 16.0 29.1 12.4 (14.1)
Feb-12 5,145 21,886 27,031 59,686 37,227 16,885 5,574 86,717 6% 25% 31% 69% 43% 19% 6% 100% Feb-12 8.8 3.3 4.3 17.5 16.0 19.8 20.9 13.0 (13.2)
Mar-12 4,960 22,840 27,800 61,757 38,544 17,792 5,421 89,557 6% 26% 31% 69% 43% 20% 6% 100% Mar-12 10.6 3.2 4.4 18.0 16.3 19.6 25.6 13.4 (13.6)
Apr-12 5,020 22,478 27,498 61,462 37,893 17,984 5,585 88,960 6% 25% 31% 69% 43% 20% 6% 100% Apr-12 10.4 1.6 3.1 17.7 16.0 17.3 32.9 12.8 (14.7)
May-12 4,904 22,962 27,866 62,139 38,124 18,167 5,848 90,005 5% 26% 31% 69% 42% 20% 6% 100% May-12 10.0 2.2 3.5 18.2 16.4 16.2 39.0 13.2 (14.7)
Jun-12 4,928 23,824 28,753 63,747 39,630 18,661 5,456 92,499 5% 26% 31% 69% 43% 20% 6% 100% Jun-12 10.8 3.5 4.7 18.2 17.4 17.1 28.5 13.6 (13.5)
Jul-12 4,971 23,338 28,309 63,598 39,082 18,828 5,688 91,907 5% 25% 31% 69% 43% 20% 6% 100% Jul-12 10.0 3.6 4.6 18.6 18.1 17.4 27.2 13.9 (14.0)
Aug-12 5,024 23,550 28,574 63,916 39,190 19,000 5,726 92,489 5% 25% 31% 69% 42% 21% 6% 100% Aug-12 9.7 3.5 4.5 18.0 18.3 16.0 23.2 13.5 (13.5)
Sep-12 5,343 23,335 28,679 65,690 40,317 20,066 5,307 94,369 6% 25% 30% 70% 43% 21% 6% 100% Sep-12 13.3 6.1 7.3 18.4 18.0 17.3 26.6 14.8 (11.1)
Oct-12 5,147 24,184 29,331 64,309 39,645 19,173 5,492 93,640 5% 26% 31% 69% 42% 20% 6% 100% Oct-12 10.5 5.2 6.1 18.2 18.5 18.1 16.8 14.1 (12.2)
Nov-12 5,239 24,449 29,688 64,795 39,896 19,217 5,681 94,483 6% 26% 31% 69% 42% 20% 6% 100% Nov-12 10.7 4.4 5.5 18.2 18.5 18.2 16.1 13.9 (12.7)
Dec-12 5,466 25,400 30,866 66,548 41,136 19,594 5,818 97,415 6% 26% 32% 68% 42% 20% 6% 100% Dec-12 7.7 6.2 6.5 17.6 16.6 17.6 25.1 13.8 (11.1)
Jan-13 6,245 24,878 31,123 68,090 41,914 20,256 5,920 99,213 6% 25% 31% 69% 42% 20% 6% 100% Jan-13 4.4 18.4 15.3 16.2 13.1 22.1 19.9 15.9 (0.9)
Feb-13 6,031 23,579 29,610 70,250 43,691 20,496 6,062 99,860 6% 24% 30% 70% 44% 21% 6% 100% Feb-13 17.2 7.7 9.5 17.7 17.4 21.4 8.8 15.2 (8.2)
Mar-13 5,546 25,544 31,090 72,496 44,901 21,573 6,022 103,586 5% 25% 30% 70% 43% 21% 6% 100% Mar-13 11.8 11.8 11.8 17.4 16.5 21.3 11.1 15.7 (5.6)
Apr-13 5,561 25,204 30,765 72,490 43,947 22,390 6,153 103,255 5% 24% 30% 70% 43% 22% 6% 100% Apr-13 10.8 12.1 11.9 17.9 16.0 24.5 10.2 16.1 (6.1)
May-13 5,443 25,577 31,020 73,196 44,227 22,716 6,254 104,217 5% 25% 30% 70% 42% 22% 6% 100% May-13 11.0 11.4 11.3 17.8 16.0 25.0 6.9 15.8 (6.5)
Jun-13 5,406 25,944 31,350 74,090 45,341 22,803 5,946 105,440 5% 25% 30% 70% 43% 22% 6% 100% Jun-13 9.7 8.9 9.0 16.2 14.4 22.2 9.0 14.0 (7.2)
Jul-13 5,441 25,618 31,060 74,162 44,930 22,604 6,627 105,221 5% 24% 30% 70% 43% 21% 6% 100% Jul-13 9.5 9.8 9.7 16.6 15.0 20.1 16.5 14.5 (6.9)
Aug-13 5,493 25,916 31,409 74,717 45,021 22,950 6,746 106,126 5% 24% 30% 70% 42% 22% 6% 100% Aug-13 9.3 10.0 9.9 16.9 14.9 20.8 17.8 14.7 (7.0)
Sep-13 5,649 25,584 31,233 76,505 46,196 23,908 6,401 107,738 5% 24% 29% 71% 43% 22% 6% 100% Sep-13 5.7 9.6 8.9 16.5 14.6 19.2 20.6 14.2 (7.6)
Oct-13 5,560 26,391 31,951 75,073 45,291 23,022 6,760 107,024 5% 25% 30% 70% 42% 22% 6% 100% Oct-13 8.0 9.1 8.9 16.7 14.2 20.1 23.1 14.3 (7.8)
Nov-13 5,644 26,838 32,482 75,444 45,382 23,055 7,007 107,926 5% 25% 30% 70% 42% 21% 6% 100% Nov-13 7.7 9.8 9.4 16.4 13.8 20.0 23.3 14.2 (7.0)
Dec-13 5,857 27,872 33,729 76,923 46,703 23,270 6,951 110,652 5% 25% 30% 70% 42% 21% 6% 100% Dec-13 7.2 9.7 9.3 15.6 13.5 18.8 19.5 13.6 (6.3)
Jan-14 7,649 23,841 31,490 80,862 48,497 24,413 7,952 112,352 7% 21% 28% 72% 43% 22% 7% 100% Jan-14 22.5 (4.2) 1.2 18.8 15.7 20.5 34.3 13.2 (17.6)
Feb-14 6,232 25,430 31,663 81,514 48,606 24,201 8,707 113,176 6% 22% 28% 72% 43% 21% 8% 100% Feb-14 3.3 7.9 6.9 16.0 11.3 18.1 43.6 13.3 (9.1)
Mar-14 5,833 26,935 32,768 83,300 50,040 25,078 8,183 116,069 5% 23% 28% 72% 43% 22% 7% 100% Mar-14 5.2 5.5 5.4 14.9 11.5 16.3 35.9 12.1 (9.5)
Apr-14 5,862 26,587 32,448 84,433 48,791 25,649 9,993 116,881 5% 23% 28% 72% 42% 22% 9% 100% Apr-14 5.4 5.5 5.5 16.5 11.0 14.6 62.4 13.2 (11.0)
May-14 5,805 26,979 32,784 85,445 48,949 26,105 10,392 118,229 5% 23% 28% 72% 41% 22% 9% 100% May-14 6.7 5.5 5.7 16.7 10.7 14.9 66.2 13.5 (11.1)
Jun-14 5,695 28,454 34,149 86,810 50,802 26,564 9,443 120,959 5% 24% 28% 72% 42% 22% 8% 100% Jun-14 5.3 9.7 8.9 17.2 12.1 16.5 58.8 14.7 (8.2)
Jul-14 5,735 27,400 33,135 86,290 49,694 26,274 10,322 119,425 5% 23% 28% 72% 42% 22% 9% 100% Jul-14 5.4 7.0 6.7 16.4 10.6 16.2 55.7 13.5 (9.7)
Aug-14 5,800 27,403 33,202 86,548 49,476 26,473 10,598 119,750 5% 23% 28% 72% 41% 22% 9% 100% Aug-14 5.6 5.7 5.7 15.8 9.9 15.4 57.1 12.8 (10.1)
Sep-14 5,884 26,838 32,722 87,483 50,426 27,220 9,837 120,205 5% 22% 27% 73% 42% 23% 8% 100% Sep-14 4.2 4.9 4.8 14.4 9.2 13.9 53.7 12.9 (9.6)
Oct-14 5,769 27,193 32,962 86,962 49,874 26,480 10,607 119,924 5% 23% 27% 73% 42% 22% 9% 100% Oct-14 3.8 3.0 3.2 15.8 10.1 15.0 56.9 12.6 (12.7)
Nov-14 5,844 27,668 33,511 87,349 49,934 26,523 10,892 120,861 5% 23% 28% 72% 41% 22% 9% 100% Nov-14 3.5 3.1 3.2 15.8 10.0 15.0 55.5 12.3 (12.6)
Dec-14 6,026 28,780 34,806 88,032 50,888 26,406 10,738 122,837 5% 23% 28% 72% 41% 21% 9% 100% Dec-14 2.9 3.3 3.2 14.4 9.0 13.5 54.5 12.2 (11.3)
Jan-15 6,304 28,507 34,811 89,460 51,309 27,153 10,998 124,271 5% 23% 28% 72% 41% 22% 9% 100% Jan-15 (17.6) 19.6 10.6 10.6 5.8 11.2 38.3 10.8 (0.1)
Feb-15 7,290 26,154 33,444 92,294 53,848 27,355 11,091 125,738 6% 21% 27% 73% 43% 22% 9% 100% Feb-15 17.0 2.9 5.6 13.2 10.8 13.0 27.4 12.5 (7.6)
Mar-15 6,195 27,526 33,721 93,812 54,469 27,519 11,824 127,533 5% 22% 26% 74% 43% 22% 9% 100% Mar-15 6.2 2.2 2.9 12.6 8.9 9.7 44.5 11.6 (9.7)
Apr-15 6,077 27,562 33,639 94,439 53,407 28,146 12,886 128,078 5% 22% 26% 74% 42% 22% 10% 100% Apr-15 3.7 3.7 3.7 11.9 9.5 9.7 29.0 10.1 (8.2)
May-15 5,908 28,401 34,309 96,427 52,960 28,689 14,779 130,736 5% 22% 26% 74% 41% 22% 11% 100% May-15 1.8 5.3 4.7 12.9 8.2 9.9 42.2 10.8 (8.2)
Jun-15 5,860 29,748 35,608 97,729 53,913 28,933 14,884 133,338 4% 22% 27% 73% 40% 22% 11% 100% Jun-15 2.9 4.6 4.3 12.6 6.1 8.9 57.6 11.8 (8.3)
Jul-15 5,901 29,411 35,312 100,009 53,841 29,295 16,873 135,321 4% 22% 26% 74% 40% 22% 12% 100% Jul-15 2.9 7.3 6.6 15.9 8.3 11.5 63.5 13.3 (9.3)
Aug-15 5,906 30,373 36,279 99,411 54,022 29,291 16,098 135,691 4% 22% 27% 73% 40% 22% 12% 100% Aug-15 1.8 10.8 9.3 14.9 9.2 10.6 51.9 13.3 (5.6)
Sep-15 6,102 30,339 36,442 99,541 54,787 29,857 14,896 135,982 4% 22% 27% 73% 40% 22% 11% 100% Sep-15 3.7 13.1 11.4 13.8 8.7 9.7 51.4 13.1 (2.4)
Oct-15 5,990 31,591 37,581 98,521 54,196 28,876 15,450 136,102 4% 23% 28% 72% 40% 21% 11% 100% Oct-15 3.8 16.2 14.0 13.3 8.7 9.1 45.7 13.5 0.7
Nov-15 6,033 32,729 38,762 98,634 54,283 28,703 15,647 137,396 4% 24% 28% 72% 40% 21% 11% 100% Nov-15 3.2 18.3 15.7 12.9 8.7 8.2 43.7 13.7 2.8
Dec-15 6,322 33,774 40,095 99,132 55,207 28,824 15,101 139,228 5% 24% 29% 71% 40% 21% 11% 100% Dec-15 4.9 17.4 15.2 12.6 8.5 9.2 40.6 13.3 2.6
Jan-16 7,253 34,016 41,269 100,363 56,097 29,429 14,838 141,632 5% 24% 29% 71% 40% 21% 10% 100% Jan-16 15.1 19.3 18.6 12.2 9.3 8.4 34.8 14.0 6.4
Feb-16 6,942 32,308 39,250 103,211 58,101 29,404 15,706 142,462 5% 23% 28% 72% 41% 21% 11% 100% Feb-16 (4.8) 23.5 17.4 11.8 7.9 7.5 41.6 13.3 5.5
Mar-16 6,465 34,693 41,158 103,462 58,686 30,062 14,714 144,620 4% 24% 28% 72% 41% 21% 10% 100% Mar-16 4.4 26.0 22.1 10.3 7.7 9.2 24.4 13.4 11.8
Apr-16 6,440 34,910 41,350 103,170 57,749 30,342 15,079 144,521 4% 24% 29% 71% 40% 21% 10% 100% Apr-16 6.0 26.7 22.9 9.3 8.1 7.8 17.0 12.8 13.7
May-16 6,278 36,147 42,425 103,744 57,800 30,247 15,697 146,170 4% 25% 29% 71% 40% 21% 11% 100% May-16 6.3 27.3 23.7 7.6 9.1 5.4 6.2 11.8 16.1
Jun-16 6,282 38,082 44,364 104,685 58,755 30,167 15,763 149,049 4% 26% 30% 70% 39% 20% 11% 100% Jun-16 7.2 28.0 24.6 7.1 9.0 4.3 5.9 11.8 17.5
Jul-16 6,328 37,966 44,293 104,862 58,522 30,169 16,172 149,156 4% 25% 30% 70% 39% 20% 11% 100% Jul-16 7.2 29.1 25.4 4.9 8.7 3.0 (4.2) 10.2 20.5
Aug-16 6,345 39,109 45,454 105,644 58,937 30,781 15,926 151,098 4% 26% 30% 70% 39% 20% 11% 100% Aug-16 7.4 28.8 25.3 6.3 9.1 5.1 (1.1) 11.4 19.0
Sep-16 6,507 38,927 45,434 106,202 59,888 31,508 14,806 151,636 4% 26% 30% 70% 39% 21% 10% 100% Sep-16 6.6 28.3 24.7 6.7 9.3 5.5 (0.6) 11.5 18.0
Oct-16 6,421 40,123 46,545 105,404 59,417 30,790 15,197 151,949 4% 26% 31% 69% 39% 20% 10% 100% Oct-16 7.2 27.0 23.9 7.0 9.6 6.6 (1.6) 11.6 16.9
Nov-16 6,490 41,050 47,541 105,503 59,737 30,907 14,858 153,043 4% 27% 31% 69% 39% 20% 10% 100% Nov-16 7.6 25.4 22.7 7.0 10.1 7.7 (5.0) 11.4 15.7
Dec-16 6,830 41,825 48,656 106,351 60,350 30,799 15,202 155,007 4% 27% 31% 69% 39% 20% 10% 100% Dec-16 8.1 23.8 21.4 7.3 9.3 6.9 0.7 11.3 14.1
Jan-17 8,660 38,593 47,253 110,342 63,475 31,796 15,072 157,595 5% 24% 30% 70% 40% 20% 10% 100% Jan-17 19.4 13.5 14.5 9.9 13.2 8.0 1.6 10.7 4.6
Feb-17 7,173 40,480 47,653 110,639 63,588 31,167 15,884 158,291 5% 26% 30% 70% 40% 20% 10% 100% Feb-17 3.3 25.3 21.4 7.2 9.4 6.0 1.1 10.4 14.2
Mar-17 6,861 42,017 48,877 111,084 64,328 31,718 15,038 159,961 4% 26% 31% 69% 40% 20% 9% 100% Mar-17 6.1 21.1 18.8 7.4 9.6 5.5 2.2 10.1 11.4
Apr-17 6,839 42,179 49,018 110,615 63,099 31,809 15,707 159,633 4% 26% 31% 69% 40% 20% 10% 100% Apr-17 6.2 20.8 18.5 7.2 9.3 4.8 4.2 9.8 11.3
May-17 6,733 42,906 49,639 110,497 63,223 31,493 15,782 160,136 4% 27% 31% 69% 39% 20% 10% 100% May-17 7.3 18.7 17.0 6.5 9.4 4.1 0.5 9.1 10.5
Jun-17 6,698 44,325 51,023 112,105 64,293 31700.3 16,112 163,128 4% 27% 31% 69% 39% 19% 10% 100% Jun-17 6.6 16.4 15.0 7.1 9.4 5.1 2.2 9.1 7.9
Jul-17 6,713 44,336 51,048 111,851 63,523 31,470 16,858 162,900 4% 27% 31% 69% 39% 19% 10% 100% Jul-17 6.1 16.8 15.3 6.7 8.6 4.3 4.2 8.9 8.6
Aug-17 6,755 45,056 51,811 112,704 63,789 31,789 17,127 164,516 4% 27% 31% 69% 39% 19% 10% 100% Aug-17 6.5 15.2 14.0 6.7 8.2 3.3 7.5 8.6 7.3
Sep-17 6,975 44,811 51,786 113,780 64,835 32,661 16,284 165,566 4% 27% 31% 69% 39% 20% 10% 100% Sep-17 7.2 15.1 14.0 7.1 8.3 3.7 10.0 9.0 6.8
Oct-17 6,823 45,775 52,598 112,746 64,025 31,974 16,747 165,343 4% 28% 32% 68% 39% 19% 10% 100% Oct-17 6.3 14.1 13.0 7.0 7.8 3.9 10.2 8.9 6.0
Nov-17 6,862 46,694 53,557 113,445 64,162 32,065 17,218 167,001 4% 28% 32% 68% 38% 19% 10% 100% Nov-17 5.7 13.8 12.7 7.5 7.4 3.8 15.9 9.1 5.1
Dec-17 7,065 47,314 54,379 113,298 64,934 32,020 16,344 167,677 4% 28% 32% 68% 39% 19% 10% 100% Dec-17 3.4 13.1 11.8 6.5 7.6 4.0 7.5 8.1 5.3
Jan-18 7,464 46,861 54,325 117,757 65,842 32,817 19,097 172,081 4% 27% 32% 68% 38% 19% 11% 100% Jan-18 (13.8) 21.4 15.0 5.9 3.7 3.2 20.1 8.6 9.0
Feb-18 8,142 43,561 51,704 121,203 68,708 33,053 19,443 172,907 5% 25% 30% 70% 40% 19% 11% 100% Feb-18 13.5 7.6 8.5 8.9 8.1 6.1 17.3 8.8 (0.4)
Mar-18 7,269 45,085 52,354 121,632 69,256 33,261 19,115 173,986 4% 26% 30% 70% 40% 19% 11% 100% Mar-18 6.0 7.3 7.1 8.7 7.7 4.9 20.4 8.2 (1.6)
Apr-18 7,148 45,397 52,545 121,224 67,919 33,535 19,770 173,768 4% 26% 30% 70% 39% 19% 11% 100% Apr-18 4.5 7.6 7.2 8.8 7.6 5.4 20.1 8.3 (1.7)
May-18 6,977 45,650 52,628 121,679 68,133 33,606 19,939 174,306 4% 26% 30% 70% 39% 19% 11% 100% May-18 3.6 6.4 6.0 9.3 7.8 6.7 20.0 8.3 (3.3)
Jun-18 6,960 47,430 54,390 122,630 177,020 4% 27% 31% 69% 100% Jun-18 3.9 6.6 8.0
M2M1
Quasi
Money
M1
% Y/Y
MINUS
Quasi
% Y/Y
Month M2M1
Quasi
Money
Month M2M1
Quasi
Money
July 13, 2018
8
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
Jun Total Social Financing (TSF)
TSF 2017 +19.44 tln yuan,
+9.2% y/y, vs. +15.6% in
2016, -6.5% in 2015,
-4.8% in 2014 and +9.9%
in 2013.
2017 non-yuan-loans
29% of total, vs. 2016’s
30%, 2015’s 27% and
2014’s 41%.
Starting in 2015, TSF has
included financing to
ONLY non-financial firms
& households.
No revisions have been
made to historic data,
making seasonal
adjustment meaningless.
Note. Ask us for the data
and a detailed explanation.
July 13, 2018
9
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
Two Bank Loans in China, We Prefer the Right One
We prefer the Net New RMB Bank Loans component of TSF on the right. Because
starting in 2015, TSF has ONLY included financing to non-financial firms and households,
a proxy for the real economy, and so has its RMB Bank Loans component. However, no
revision was made to data before 2015, thus y/y comparison only good starting 2016.
Month M YTD M
% Y/Y
YTD
% Y/Y
Q Q
% Y/Y
12MMS 12MMS
% Y/YGAP
Month M YTD M
% Y/Y
YTD
% Y/Y
Q Q
% Y/Y
12MMS 12MMS
% Y/Y
1/2009 1,618 1,618 100.8% 100.8% 5,716 47.6% 0 1/2009 1,618 1,618 100.8% 100.8% 5,716 47.6%
2/2009 1,072 2,689 340.2% 156.3% 6,544 76.8% 0 2/2009 1,072 2,689 340.2% 156.3% 6,544 76.8%
3/2009 1,892 4,581 567.6% 243.8% 4,581 243.8% 8,153 130.1% 0 3/2009 1,892 4,581 567.6% 243.8% 4,581 243.8% 8,153 130.1%
4/2009 592 5,173 26.2% 187.1% 8,276 130.5% 0 4/2009 592 5,173 26.2% 187.1% 8,276 130.5%
5/2009 667 5,840 109.4% 175.5% 8,624 135.5% 0 5/2009 667 5,840 109.4% 175.5% 8,624 135.5%
6/2009 1,530 7,370 360.4% 200.5% 2,789 149.0% 9,822 177.3% 0 6/2009 1,530 7,370 360.4% 200.5% 2,789 149.0% 9,822 177.3%
7/2009 369 7,739 -3.3% 173.1% 9,809 165.6% 0 7/2009 369 7,739 -3.3% 173.1% 9,809 165.6%
8/2009 410 8,150 51.2% 162.4% 9,948 171.7% 0 8/2009 410 8,150 51.2% 162.4% 9,948 171.7%
9/2009 517 8,667 38.0% 149.0% 1,296 26.1% 10,090 168.9% 0 9/2009 517 8,667 38.0% 149.0% 1,296 26.1% 10,090 168.9%
10/2009 253 8,920 39.1% 143.6% 10,162 167.5% 0 10/2009 253 8,920 39.1% 143.6% 10,162 167.5%
11/2009 295 9,214 -38.3% 122.6% 9,979 138.3% 0 11/2009 295 9,214 -38.3% 122.6% 9,979 138.3%
12/2009 380 9,594 -50.3% 95.6% 928 -34.8% 9,594 95.6% 0 12/2009 380 9,594 -50.3% 95.6% 928 -34.8% 9,594 95.6%
1/2010 1,393 1,393 -13.9% -13.9% 9,370 63.9% 0 1/2010 1,393 1,393 -13.9% -13.9% 9,370 63.9%
2/2010 700 2,093 -34.7% -22.2% 8,998 37.5% 0 2/2010 700 2,093 -34.7% -22.2% 8,998 37.5%
3/2010 511 2,604 -73.0% -43.2% 2,604 -43.2% 7,617 -6.6% 0 3/2010 511 2,604 -73.0% -43.2% 2,604 -43.2% 7,617 -6.6%
4/2010 774 3,378 30.8% -34.7% 7,799 -5.8% 0 4/2010 774 3,378 30.8% -34.7% 7,799 -5.8%
5/2010 649 4,027 -2.6% -31.0% 7,782 -9.8% 0 5/2010 649 4,027 -2.6% -31.0% 7,782 -9.8%
6/2010 603 4,630 -60.6% -37.2% 2,026 -27.4% 6,854 -30.2% 0 6/2010 603 4,630 -60.6% -37.2% 2,026 -27.4% 6,854 -30.2%
7/2010 533 5,163 44.3% -33.3% 7,018 -28.5% 0 7/2010 533 5,163 44.3% -33.3% 7,018 -28.5%
8/2010 545 5,707 32.7% -30.0% 7,152 -28.1% 0 8/2010 545 5,707 32.7% -30.0% 7,152 -28.1%
9/2010 600 6,308 16.2% -27.2% 1,678 29.4% 7,236 -28.3% 0 9/2010 600 6,308 16.2% -27.2% 1,678 29.4% 7,236 -28.3%
10/2010 588 6,895 132.3% -22.7% 7,570 -25.5% 0 10/2010 588 6,895 132.3% -22.7% 7,570 -25.5%
11/2010 569 7,464 93.0% -19.0% 7,844 -21.4% 0 11/2010 569 7,464 93.0% -19.0% 7,844 -21.4%
12/2010 481 7,945 26.5% -17.2% 1,637 76.5% 7,945 -17.2% 0 12/2010 481 7,945 26.5% -17.2% 1,637 76.5% 7,945 -17.2%
1/2011 1,026 1,026 -26.3% -26.3% 7,578 -19.1% 0 1/2011 1,026 1,026 -26.3% -26.3% 7,578 -19.1%
2/2011 538 1,564 -23.2% -25.3% 7,416 -17.6% 0 2/2011 538 1,564 -23.2% -25.3% 7,416 -17.6%
3/2011 679 2,243 33.0% -13.8% 2,243 -13.8% 7,584 -0.4% 0 3/2011 679 2,243 33.0% -13.8% 2,243 -13.8% 7,584 -0.4%
4/2011 743 2,986 -4.0% -11.6% 7,553 -3.2% 0 4/2011 743 2,986 -4.0% -11.6% 7,553 -3.2%
5/2011 552 3,538 -15.0% -12.1% 7,456 -4.2% 0 5/2011 552 3,538 -15.0% -12.1% 7,456 -4.2%
6/2011 634 4,172 5.2% -9.9% 1,929 -4.8% 7,487 9.2% 0 6/2011 634 4,172 5.2% -9.9% 1,929 -4.8% 7,487 9.2%
7/2011 492 4,664 -7.7% -9.7% 7,446 6.1% 0 7/2011 492 4,664 -7.7% -9.7% 7,446 6.1%
8/2011 548 5,212 0.7% -8.7% 7,450 4.2% 0 8/2011 548 5,212 0.7% -8.7% 7,450 4.2%
9/2011 469 5,681 -21.8% -9.9% 1,509 -10.0% 7,319 1.1% 0 9/2011 469 5,681 -21.8% -9.9% 1,509 -10.0% 7,319 1.1%
10/2011 587 6,268 -0.2% -9.1% 7,318 -3.3% 0 10/2011 587 6,268 -0.2% -9.1% 7,318 -3.3%
11/2011 563 6,831 -1.1% -8.5% 7,312 -6.8% 0 11/2011 563 6,831 -1.1% -8.5% 7,312 -6.8%
12/2011 641 7,472 33.3% -6.0% 1,790 9.3% 7,472 -6.0% 0 12/2011 641 7,472 33.3% -6.0% 1,790 9.3% 7,472 -6.0%
1/2012 738 738 -28.1% -28.1% 7,183 -5.2% 0 1/2012 738 738 -28.1% -28.1% 7,183 -5.2%
2/2012 711 1,449 32.2% -7.4% 7,356 -0.8% 0 2/2012 711 1,449 32.2% -7.4% 7,356 -0.8%
3/2012 1,011 2,460 48.9% 9.7% 2,460 9.7% 7,688 1.4% 0 3/2012 1,011 2,460 48.9% 9.7% 2,460 9.7% 7,688 1.4%
4/2012 682 3,142 -8.2% 5.2% 7,627 1.0% 0 4/2012 682 3,142 -8.2% 5.2% 7,627 1.0%
5/2012 793 3,935 43.8% 11.2% 7,869 5.5% 0 5/2012 793 3,935 43.8% 11.2% 7,869 5.5%
6/2012 920 4,855 45.1% 16.4% 2,395 24.2% 8,155 8.9% 0 6/2012 920 4,855 45.1% 16.4% 2,395 24.2% 8,155 8.9%
7/2012 540 5,395 9.9% 15.7% 8,203 10.2% 0 7/2012 540 5,395 9.9% 15.7% 8,203 10.2%
8/2012 704 6,099 28.4% 17.0% 8,359 12.2% 0 8/2012 704 6,099 28.4% 17.0% 8,359 12.2%
9/2012 623 6,722 32.7% 18.3% 1,867 23.7% 8,512 16.3% 0 9/2012 623 6,722 32.7% 18.3% 1,867 23.7% 8,512 16.3%
10/2012 505 7,227 -13.9% 15.3% 8,431 15.2% 0 10/2012 505 7,227 -13.9% 15.3% 8,431 15.2%
11/2012 522 7,749 -7.3% 13.4% 8,390 14.7% 0 11/2012 522 7,749 -7.3% 13.4% 8,390 14.7%
12/2012 455 8,204 -29.0% 9.8% 1,482 -17.2% 8,204 9.8% 0 12/2012 455 8,204 -29.0% 9.8% 1,482 -17.2% 8,204 9.8%
1/2013 1,072 1,072 45.3% 45.3% 8,538 18.9% 0 1/2013 1,072 1,072 45.3% 45.3% 8,538 18.9%
2/2013 620 1,692 -12.8% 16.8% 8,447 14.8% 0 2/2013 620 1,692 -12.8% 16.8% 8,447 14.8%
3/2013 1,063 2,755 5.1% 12.0% 2,755 12.0% 8,498 10.5% 0 3/2013 1,063 2,755 5.1% 12.0% 2,755 12.0% 8,498 10.5%
4/2013 792 3,547 16.2% 12.9% 8,609 12.9% 0 4/2013 792 3,547 16.2% 12.9% 8,609 12.9%
5/2013 669 4,216 -15.6% 7.1% 8,485 7.8% 0 5/2013 669 4,216 -15.6% 7.1% 8,485 7.8%
6/2013 863 5,079 -6.2% 4.6% 2,325 -2.9% 8,428 3.4% 0 6/2013 863 5,079 -6.2% 4.6% 2,325 -2.9% 8,428 3.4%
7/2013 700 5,779 29.6% 7.1% 8,588 4.7% 0 7/2013 700 5,779 29.6% 7.1% 8,588 4.7%
8/2013 713 6,492 1.3% 6.4% 8,596 2.8% 0 8/2013 713 6,492 1.3% 6.4% 8,596 2.8%
9/2013 787 7,279 26.4% 8.3% 2,200 17.8% 8,761 2.9% 0 9/2013 787 7,279 26.4% 8.3% 2,200 17.8% 8,761 2.9%
10/2013 506 7,785 0.1% 7.7% 8,761 3.9% 0 10/2013 506 7,785 0.1% 7.7% 8,761 3.9%
11/2013 625 8,409 19.6% 8.5% 8,864 5.7% 0 11/2013 625 8,409 19.6% 8.5% 8,864 5.7%
12/2013 482 8,892 6.1% 8.4% 1,613 8.8% 8,892 8.4% 0 12/2013 482 8,892 6.1% 8.4% 1,613 8.8% 8,892 8.4%
1/2014 1,319 1,319 23.0% 23.0% 9,139 7.0% 0 1/2014 1,319 1,319 23.0% 23.0% 9,139 7.0%
2/2014 645 1,964 4.0% 16.1% 9,163 8.5% 0 2/2014 645 1,964 4.0% 16.1% 9,163 8.5%
3/2014 1,050 3,014 -1.2% 9.4% 3,014 9.4% 9,151 7.7% 0 3/2014 1,050 3,014 -1.2% 9.4% 3,014 9.4% 9,151 7.7%
4/2014 775 3,788 -2.2% 6.8% 9,133 6.1% 0 4/2014 775 3,788 -2.2% 6.8% 9,133 6.1%
5/2014 871 4,659 30.1% 10.5% 9,334 10.0% 0 5/2014 871 4,659 30.1% 10.5% 9,334 10.0%
6/2014 1,079 5,738 25.1% 13.0% 2,725 17.2% 9,551 13.3% 0 6/2014 1,079 5,738 25.1% 13.0% 2,725 17.2% 9,551 13.3%
7/2014 385 6,123 -45.0% 6.0% 9,236 7.6% 0 7/2014 385 6,123 -45.0% 6.0% 9,236 7.6%
8/2014 703 6,826 -1.4% 5.1% 9,226 7.3% 0 8/2014 703 6,826 -1.4% 5.1% 9,226 7.3%
9/2014 857 7,683 8.9% 5.6% 1,945 -11.6% 9,296 6.1% 0 9/2014 857 7,683 8.9% 5.6% 1,945 -11.6% 9,296 6.1%
10/2014 548 8,231 8.4% 5.7% 9,338 6.6% 0 10/2014 548 8,231 8.4% 5.7% 9,338 6.6%
11/2014 853 9,084 36.5% 8.0% 9,567 7.9% 0 11/2014 853 9,084 36.5% 8.0% 9,567 7.9%
12/2014 697 9,782 44.5% 10.0% 2,098 30.1% 9,781 10.0% 0 12/2014 697 9,782 44.5% 10.0% 2,098 30.1% 9,781 10.0%
1/2015 1,470 1,470 11.4% 11.4% 9,932 8.7% -1 1/2015 1,471 1,471 11.5% 11.5% 9,933 8.7%
2/2015 1,020 2,490 58.2% 26.8% 10,308 12.5% -124 2/2015 1,144 2,614 77.4% 33.1% 10,432 13.8%
3/2015 1,180 3,680 12.4% 22.1% 3,670 21.8% 10,438 14.1% 188 3/2015 992 3,606 -5.5% 19.7% 3,606 19.7% 10,374 13.4%
4/2015 708 4,388 -8.6% 15.8% 10,371 13.6% -97 4/2015 805 4,411 3.9% 16.4% 10,404 13.9%
5/2015 901 5,289 3.4% 13.5% 10,401 11.4% 50 5/2015 851 5,262 -2.3% 12.9% 10,385 11.3%
6/2015 1,271 6,560 17.8% 14.3% 2,880 5.7% 10,593 10.9% -53 6/2015 1,324 6,586 22.7% 14.8% 2,979 9.4% 10,629 11.3%
7/2015 1,480 8,040 284.2% 31.3% 11,688 26.5% 891 7/2015 589 7,175 52.9% 17.2% 10,833 17.3%
8/2015 810 8,850 15.2% 29.6% 11,795 27.8% 34 8/2015 776 7,951 10.4% 16.5% 10,906 18.2%
9/2015 1,050 9,900 22.5% 28.9% 3,340 71.7% 11,988 29.0% 8 9/2015 1,042 8,992 21.5% 17.0% 2,406 23.7% 11,091 19.3%
10/2015 514 10,414 -6.3% 26.5% 11,953 28.0% -44 10/2015 557 9,550 1.7% 16.0% 11,100 18.9%
11/2015 709 11,123 -16.9% 22.4% 11,809 23.4% -178 11/2015 887 10,437 4.1% 14.9% 11,134 16.4%
12/2015 598 11,720 -14.3% 19.8% 1,820 -13.2% 11,710 19.7% -235 12/2015 832 11,269 19.4% 15.2% 2,277 8.5% 11,269 15.2%
1/2016 2,510 2,510 70.7% 70.7% 12,750 28.4% -27 1/2016 2,537 2,537 72.5% 72.5% 12,336 24.2%
2/2016 727 3,237 -28.8% 30.0% 12,457 20.8% -84 2/2016 811 3,348 -29.1% 28.0% 12,002 15.1%
3/2016 1,370 4,610 16.1% 25.3% 4,607 25.5% 12,647 21.2% 52 3/2016 1,318 4,665 32.8% 29.4% 4,665 29.4% 12,328 18.8%
4/2016 556 5,166 -21.5% 17.7% 12,494 20.5% -9 4/2016 564 5,229 -29.9% 18.6% 12,088 16.2%
5/2016 986 6,151 9.4% 16.3% 12,579 20.9% 48 5/2016 937 6,167 10.2% 17.2% 12,174 17.2%
6/2016 1,380 7,530 8.6% 14.8% 2,921 1.4% 12,688 19.8% 66 6/2016 1,314 7,481 -0.7% 13.6% 2,816 -5.5% 12,164 14.4%
7/2016 464 7,994 -68.7% -0.6% 11,671 -0.1% 9 7/2016 455 7,936 -22.8% 10.6% 12,030 11.1%
8/2016 949 8,942 17.2% 1.0% 11,810 0.1% 152 8/2016 797 8,733 2.7% 9.8% 12,051 10.5%
9/2016 1,220 10,160 16.2% 2.6% 2,632 -21.2% 11,980 -0.1% -43 9/2016 1,263 9,996 21.2% 11.2% 2,515 4.5% 12,273 10.7%
10/2016 651 10,811 26.8% 3.8% 12,118 1.4% 50 10/2016 601 10,597 7.8% 11.0% 12,316 11.0%
11/2016 795 11,606 12.1% 4.3% 12,204 3.3% -52 11/2016 846 11,443 -4.6% 9.6% 12,275 10.2%
12/2016 1,040 12,650 74.0% 7.9% 2,486 36.6% 12,646 8.0% 46 12/2016 994 12,437 19.5% 10.4% 2,442 7.2% 12,437 10.4%
1/2017 2,030 2,030 -19.1% -19.1% 12,166 -4.6% -283 1/2017 2,313 2,313 -8.8% -8.8% 12,214 -1.0%
2/2017 1,170 3,200 61.0% -1.1% 12,609 1.2% 138 2/2017 1,032 3,345 27.3% -0.1% 12,435 3.6%
3/2017 1,020 4,220 -25.5% -8.5% 4,220 -8.4% 12,259 -3.1% -139 3/2017 1,159 4,504 -12.1% -3.5% 4,504 -3.5% 12,276 -0.4%
4/2017 1,100 5,320 98.0% 3.0% 12,804 2.5% 19 4/2017 1,081 5,584 91.5% 6.8% 12,792 5.8%
5/2017 1,110 6,430 12.6% 4.5% 12,928 2.8% -68 5/2017 1,178 6,762 25.7% 9.7% 13,033 7.1%
6/2017 1,540 7,970 11.6% 5.8% 3,750 28.4% 13,088 3.2% 93 6/2017 1,447 8,210 10.1% 9.7% 3,706 31.6% 13,166 8.2%
7/2017 826 8,796 78.1% 10.0% 13,450 15.2% -90 7/2017 915 9,125 101.1% 15.0% 13,626 13.3%
8/2017 1,090 9,886 14.9% 10.5% 13,591 15.1% -57 8/2017 1,147 10,271 43.9% 17.6% 13,976 16.0%
9/2017 1,270 11,160 4.1% 9.8% 3,186 21.0% 13,641 13.9% 82 9/2017 1,188 11,460 -5.9% 14.6% 3,250 29.2% 13,902 13.3%
10/2017 663 11,823 1.8% 9.4% 13,653 12.7% 0 10/2017 664 12,123 10.4% 14.4% 13,964 13.4%
11/2017 1,120 12,943 41.0% 11.5% 13,979 14.5% -23 11/2017 1,143 13,266 35.0% 15.9% 14,261 16.2%
12/2017 584 13,530 -43.8% 7.0% 2,368 -4.8% 13,523 6.9% 7 12/2017 577 13,843 -42.0% 11.3% 2,383 -2.4% 13,843 11.3%
1/2018 2,900 2,900 42.9% 42.9% 14,393 18.3% 215 1/2018 2,685 2,685 16.1% 16.1% 14,215 16.4%
2/2018 839 3,740 -28.3% 16.9% 14,062 11.5% -181 2/2018 1,020 3,705 -1.1% 10.8% 14,203 14.2%
3/2018 1,120 4,860 9.8% 15.2% 4,859 15.1% 14,162 15.5% -22 3/2018 1,142 4,847 -1.4% 7.6% 4,847 7.6% 14,187 15.6%
4/2018 1,180 6,040 7.3% 13.5% 14,242 11.2% 81 4/2018 1,099 5,946 1.7% 6.5% 14,205 11.0%
5/2018 1,150 7,190 3.6% 11.8% 14,282 10.5% 10 5/2018 1,140 7,086 -3.3% 4.8% 14,167 8.7%
6/2018 1,840 9,030 19.5% 13.3% 4,170 11.2% 14,582 11.4% 166 6/2018 1,674 8,760 15.7% 6.7% 3,913 5.6% 14,394 9.3%
TSF Component - Net New RMB Bank LoansHeadline Net New RMB Bank Loans
July 13, 2018
10
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
0.61.3
1.8
2.82.3 2.4
3.23.6
4.9
9.6
7.97.5
8.28.9
9.8
11.7
12.713.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
RMB Trillion
China Net New Bank Loans
Source: PBoC, EVRISI Calculations
Annual, 2000-2017
[email protected] Evercore ISI
Note: This includes lending
to financial institutions.
Net New RMB Bank Loans in
Jun were 1840 bln yuan,
+19.5% y/y vs. May 1150 bln
yuan, Apr 1180 bln yuan.
Seasonal.
2Q18, +11.2% y/y,
1Q18, +15.1% y/y
4Q17, -4.8% y/y
3Q17, +21.0% y/y
2Q17, +28.4% y/y
1Q17, -8.4% y/y
4Q16, +36.6% y/y
3Q16, -21.2% y/y
2Q16, +1.4% y/y
1Q16 +25.5% y/y
4Q15 -13.2% y/y
3Q15 +71.7% y/y
2Q15 +5.7% y/y
1Q15 +21.8% y/y
12MMS, +11.4% y/y, 2017 +6.9%
y/y, vs. 2016 +8.0%, vs. 2015
+19.7%, vs. 2014 +10.0%.
China has not announced an
official aggregate loan target
since 2011; unlike previous
practices.
Note. Ask us for complete history.
Jun (Headline) Net New Yuan Bank Loans
Jun New Loans Rmb 1840 bln
Our Call Rmb 1610 bln
Consensus Rmb 1550 bln
Source: PBoC (Central Bank), ISI Calculations
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Share in Total06-12 2013
2014 2015
2016 2017
China Net New Bank LoansQuarterly, Seasonality
[email protected] Evercore ISI
July 13, 2018
11
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
News Tracker – Jul 12, 2018 -- 1
AUTOS & ALL VEHICLES
BMW is said to unveil new ownership structure of its
venture with Brilliance China Automotive soon, becoming
the first foreign car company to take majority control of its
Chinese venture. --- BBG, Jul 12
BANKS, BANKING & LOANS, DEBT
China Banking Association said Chinese banks’ asset
quality and business results are expected to keep improving
in 2018, On-balance sheet business will still be focus of
banks in future amid tightening regulation, and banks face
challenges in credit risk management in 2018. --- CSJ, BBG,
Jul 11
CHINESE BUSINESS OVERSEAS
USDoC announced it has signed an escrow agreement with
ZTE and once ZTE has completed the $400 mln deposit, it
will issue a notice lifting the denial order. --- BBG, Jul 11
ENERGY -- NATURAL GAS
Alaska officials said they remain confident that China will
help building a pipeline to carry now-stranded natural gas
from the North S lope to markets, despite growing U.S .-
China trade tensions, and China is expected to buy about
75% of the LNG shipped through the yet-to-be-built
pipeline. --- Reuters, Jul 11
FOREIGN BUSINESSES IN CHINA
AmCham said US companies operating in China say they
plan to increase investment there in 2018, signaling that
optimism about the business outlook is offsetting rising
trade tensions. --- BBG, Jul 12
China is said to be preparing to give swift regulatory
approvals to India-manufactured drugs. --- Reuters, Jul 11
FOREIGN RELATIONS
MoCom: China has made its best efforts to avoid the
escalation of economic and trade frictions with the U.S ., and
the responsibility lies entirely with the U.S . now the matter
has reached this point. China is forced to impose
countermeasures against US tariffs for the national and
global interests and its move is completely reasonable and
legal. --- BBG, Jul 12
MoCom: We hope US firms can do more to lobby the US
gov't, and work hard to defend their own interests. ---
Reuters, Jul 12
MoCom said China is not in touch with the U.S . for
renewing trade talks and is forced to take necessary
measures to fight back, but didn't comment when asked if
China will announce a retaliatory list against US proposed
tariffs on $200 bln Chinese products. --- BBG, Jul 12
Chinese Vice Commerce Minister said when China and the
U.S . have a trade problem, the two countries should talk
about it, and the Trump administration’s disregard for
international trade rules could have catastrophic
consequences for WTO. --- BBG, Jul 12
China is said to be reviewing plans to retaliate against the
U.S . with additional measures including holding up
licenses for US firms, delaying approval of M&A involving
US companies, and ramping up inspections of American
products at borders. --- WSJ, BBG, Jul 11
The US Senate overwhelmingly rebuked Trump over his
tariff policy, but the vote will not give Congress any real
power to curb his trade authority. --- CNBC, Jul 12
White House spokeswoman: US officials have had high
level discussions with Chinese officials on multiple
occasions in the past few months and have made clear our
specific concerns about China’s unfair trade practices and
their impact on American businesses and workers. The
Trump Administration remains open to further discussions
with China, but it is important that China finally address
the longstanding concerns that have been repeatedly raised.
--- BBG, Jul 11
USTR official: The U.S . is mulling actions outside the
WTO to curb China’s trade abuses. We find no indication
that China has been prepared to make the fundamental
changes that would be necessary to bring its trade and
investment regime into alignment with the regimes of
other WTO members. --- BBG, Jul 11
American Chemistry Council official: Hundreds of
thousands of jobs in the US chemical industry are at risk as
a new round of proposed tariffs against Chinese-made goods
threatens to raise costs enough to change the value
proposition of domestic manufacturing. --- BBG, Jul 11
Summers criticized US policy on trade, saying the latest
tariff list raises chance of military conflict. --- BBG, Jul 11
Ryan: I’ve long said I don’t think tariffs are the right way to
go. --- Reuters, Jul 11
Xi will visit United Arab Emirates, Senegal, Rwanda and S .
Africa Jul 19-24 and attend BRICS summit in S . Africa Jul
25-27. --- BBG, Jul 12
Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan met with Chicago
Mayor and exchanged views on China-U.S . relations and
local cooperation. --- Xinhua, BBG, Jul 11
July 13, 2018
12
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
News Tracker – Jul 12, 2018 -- 2
INBOUND NON-FINANCIAL INVESTMENT
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) said it will
invest in China’s rental housing sector with local property
developer Longfor Group, with an initial targeted
investment of $817 mln. --- Reuters, Jul 11
PROPERTY & LAND MARKETS, HOUSING
Chinese Housing Ministry said it will restrict subsidies to
cities with hot property markets for new projects to tear
down and redevelop shantytowns. --- Reuters, Jul 12
SOFT COMMODITY -- SOYBEANS
Sinograin official: China can fully meet the needs of its
state soybean reserves without importing from the U.S . ---
Reuters, Jul 12
CASDE cut China's 2018-19 soybean imports estimate by
1.8 mln tons from its last forecast in Jun to 93.85 mln tons. --
- BBG, Jul 12
STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES (SOE)
SASAC said China will continue pushing SOE reform,
with steps including mergers and mixed-ownership reform. -
-- BBG, Jul 12
TRADE DISPUTES
USDoC said the U.S . initiates AD and CV duty
investigations of steel-rack imports from China. --- BBG,
Jul 11
July 13, 2018
13
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
CSI 300 - Components1-Day Performance of Industry Groups
0.8%
1.6%
-0.6%-0.5%
1.7%
0.0%
0.6%
1.4%
0.7%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Percent
Source: Bloomberg
[email protected] Evercore ISI
Equity Tracker – Shanghai, Shenzhen – 7/13/2018
Shanghai Composite Index
Source: Bloomberg
Evercore [email protected]
Most Recent 30 Days
2650
2750
2850
2950
3050
3150
YTD = - 14.4%
7/13/18 = 2831.2
1-Day = - 0.2%
30-Day = - 7.2%
Shanghai Composite Index
Source: Bloomberg
Most Recent 2 Years
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
8/16 10/16 12/16 2/17 4/17 6/17 8/17 10/17 12/17 2/18 4/18 6/18 8/18
YTD = - 14.4%
7/13/18 = 2831.2
1-Day = - 0.2%
30-Day = - 7.2%
[email protected] Evercore ISI
CSI 300 - Components30-Day Performance of Industry Groups
Source: Bloomberg
-20.2%
-9.8%-8.7% -8.0% -7.9% -7.7% -7.2% -6.8%
-5.8%
-0.2%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Percent
[email protected] Evercore ISI
DateClose
+/- %Positive News Negative News
2831.2 Index edged down, paring weekly gain to 3.1%,
-0.2% the best week in two years.
2837.7 Index rebounded from heavy losses, led by tech
2.2% shares, as US was set to lift bans on ZTE.
2777.8 Index slumped, after three days of gains, as US
-1.8% announced tariffs on $200 bln more Chinese goods.
2827.6 Index closed higher for a third day, the longest run
0.4% of gains in a month, led by tech and material firms.
2815.1 Index extended the rally, with biggest gain since
2.5% 2016, led by large-caps.
2747.2 Index rebounded after the index fell below 2700 Index posted a seventh week of decline, the longest
0.5% points, paring weekly loss to 3.5%. losing streak in six years.
Jul 13
Jul 12
Jul 11
Jul 10
Jul 9
Jul 6
July 13, 2018
14
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
Equity Tracker – Hong Kong – 7/13/2018
Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
Source: Bloomberg
Most Recent 30 Days
27000
28000
29000
30000
31000
32000
YTD = - 4.7%
1-Day = 0.2%
30-Day = - 7.2%
7/13/18 = 28525.4
[email protected] Evercore ISI
Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
Source: Bloomberg
Most Recent 2 Years
20000
22000
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
34000
8/16 10/16 12/16 2/17 4/17 6/17 8/17 10/17 12/17 2/18 4/18 6/18 8/18
YTD = - 4.7%
7/13/18 = 28525.4
1-Day = 0.2%
30-Day = - 7.2%
[email protected] Evercore ISI
Hang Seng – Industry Groups1-Day Performance of Industry Groups
Source: Bloomberg
0.4%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
Comm/Indus Financials Property Utilities
Percent
[email protected] Evercore ISI
Hang Seng – Industry Groups30-Day Performance of Industry Groups
Source: Bloomberg
-8.2%
-7.2% -7.1%
3.1%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
Financials Property Comm/Indus Utilities
Percent
[email protected] Evercore ISI
DateClose
+/- %Positive News Negative News
28525.4 Index edged up, and posted its first weekly gain
0.2% in a month, at 0.7%, as trade war concerns eased.
28480.8 Index closed up, led by tech shares and finance
0.6% sector, with US set to lift bans on ZTE.
28311.7 Index slid, after US threatened more tariffs on
-1.3% Chinese goods.
28682.3 Index declined slightly, led by commerce and industry
0.0% stocks.
28688.5 Index ended higher, led by Tencent and developers.
1.3%
28315.6 Index ended higher, paring weekly loss to 2.2%. Investors' caution is prevailing as US and China
0.5% tariffs became effective.
Jul 12
Jul 11
Jul 13
Jul 10
Jul 9
Jul 6
July 13, 2018
15
Donald Straszheim
310.473.4051
7/13/2018
Equity Tracker – Taipei – 7/13/2018
Taiex Index (Taipei)
Source: Bloomberg
Most Recent 30 Days
10500
10700
10900
11100
11300
YTD = 2.1%
7/13/18 = 10864.5
1-Day = 1.2%
30-Day = - 2.8%
[email protected] Evercore ISI
Taiex Index (Taipei)
Source: Bloomberg
Most Recent 2 Years
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
8/16 10/16 12/16 2/17 4/17 6/17 8/17 10/17 12/17 2/18 4/18 6/18 8/18
YTD = 2.1%
7/13/18 = 10864.5
1-Day = 1.2%
30-Day = - 2.8%
[email protected] Evercore ISI
Taiex – Industry Groups1-Day Performance of Industry Groups
Source: Bloomberg
0.2%0.1%
1.0%
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
2.0%
1.8%
2.2%
1.8%
1.6%
0.2%0.0%
1.1%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Percent
[email protected] Evercore ISI
Taiex – Industry Groups30-Day Performance of Industry Groups
Source: Bloomberg
-5.8%
-4.2% -4.0% -4.0% -3.7%-3.3%
-2.2% -2.1% -2.1% -2.0%
-0.1%
0.0% 0.1%
4.4%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Percent
[email protected] Evercore ISI
DateClose
+/- %Positive News Negative News
10864.5 Index soared, capping weekly gain at 2.4%, led
1.2% by Apple Suppliers.
10738.4 Index rebounded, closed above 12-month moving
0.6% average.
10676.8 Index fell, on escalating US-China trade war.
-0.7%
10756.9 Index ended higher, on follow-through buying in Trade friction between US and China still dampened
0.3% large-caps. investor sentiment.
10720.3 Index rebounded, led by large-caps, in particular
1.1% in the bellwether electronics sector.
10608.6 Index ended flat, after recouping most of its earlier
0.0% losses caused by US-China trade disputes.Jul 6
Jul 9
Jul 13
Jul 12
Jul 11
Jul 10
July 13, 2018
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DISCLOSURES
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In compliance with the European Securities and Markets Authority's Market Abuse Regulation, a list of all Evercore ISI recommendationsdisseminated in the preceding 12 months for the subject companies herein, may be found at the following site: https://evercore.bluematrix.com/sellside/MAR.action.
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July 13, 2018
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