Changing Landscape of Global Market
- China, Asia and the World
Fuqiang Yang
NRDC
Canberra, 18/06/2014
Data Source:China Statistical Yearbook 2011, 2012, 2013
China GDP and Energy Consumption
Growth Rates, 2001 - 2013
10.74 11.72 12.9
14.2
15.8
17.81
20.33
22.29
24.34
26.58
29.02
31.29
33.7
8.1
9.5 10.6
10.4 10.7
13.3 14.6
9.8 8.9
10.8
9.2
7.8 7.7
3
6
15 16
11 10
8
4 5
6
7
3.9 3.7
7 7 8
8 7.5
7.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year
Total Domestic Production GDP Increase Rate Energy Consumption Yearly Increase Rate Government's expected GDP Increase
Primary energy consumption and composition
(1978-2012)
Data Source:China Statistical Yearbook
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
19
78
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
10
Th
ou
snd
TC
E
Coal Oil Gas Hydro,Nuclear and Wind
China Energy Consumption Mix, 2013
Information Source: China Energy Statistical Report, 2013
REGIONAL COAL CONSUMPTION CAPS TO ADDRESS
AIR POLLUTION
5
Beijing/Tianjin/Hebei
384 mt
Yangtze River
Delta 483 mt
Pearl River Delta 120 mt
Shandong 389 mt
• 4 key air pollution control regions
totaled 1/3 of national coal
consumption in 2011
Environmental and Ecologic Losses from Coal Use
and Exploitation Equivalent to 7-9% of Annual GDP
6
Data Source: “True Cost of Coal”, Greenpeace China Program,2008
Losses and Damage
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2013 Total Vehicles 2013 Total Private Vehicles 2013 Total Cars 2013 Total Private Cars
Am
ou
nt
13.7%
17.%
19% 20.8%
Rapid Increase in China Vehicles Stock Increase 2013
Net Importation of Energy Types, 2012
Crude Oil
270 M tons
Coefficient
55.8%
Oil Product
57 M tons
67.6%
Coal
289 M tons
7.7%
Natural Gas
38.6 B cm
26.8%
Source:BP Global Energy Data,2013年
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
'Mill
ion
to
nn
es
oil
eq
uiv
ale
nt
US Energy Production US Energy ConsumptionChina Energy Production China Energy ConsumptionIndia Energy Production India Energy Consumption
Energy production trends and prediction
of US, China and India
Data source:BP Energy Outlook 2035
Global Energy Demand Growth Shift to Asia
Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe)
China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth
5% 4%
65%
10%
8%
8%
Eurasia OECD
Non-OECD Asia
Middle East
Africa
Latin America
Share of global growth 2012-2035
Brazil
480 1 540
India
1 000
Japan 440
Southeast Asia
© OECD/IEA 2013
China
4 060
1 030
Africa
2 240 United States
1 710
Europe 1 370
Eurasia
Middle 1 050 East
1 阿联酋 2 阿曼 3 阿塞拜疆 4 巴基斯坦 5 巴林岛 6 菲律宾 7 哈萨克斯坦 8 卡塔尔 9 科威特
10 马拉西亚 11 孟加拉 12 缅甸 13 南韩
14 其他中东国家
15 日本 16 沙特阿拉伯 17 泰国 18 土库曼斯坦 19 文莱
20 乌兹别克斯坦
21 新加坡 22 叙利亚 23 也门 24 伊拉克 25 伊朗 26 以色列 27 印度 28 印度尼西亚 29 越南 30 中国 31 中国台湾 32 中国香港
Major Asian Countries
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
3000.0
Oil Production OilConsumption
Natural GasProduction
Natural GasConsumption
Coal Production CoalConsumption
Oil Production
Oil Consumption
Natural Gas Production
Natural Gas Consumption
Coal Production
Coal Consumption
The fossil energy production and consumption
in major Asian countries
Shale Gas Development and Environmental Impact
Photo: NASA
20
27
%
Shale Gas Development and Water Risk
Information Sources: : Manish Bapna, WRI, 2013
Information Source: USDOD China Report 2013
Figure 2: China’s Import Transit Routes
China’s Import Transit Routes
Sino-Russia Long Term Natural Gas Deal
Sino-Russia Natural Gas Pipelines
– 60/100 GW small hydro – 100/200 GW wind – 35/50GW solar PV – 13/30 GW biomass – 300 million square meters solar
water heater – 24 billion cubic meters biogas
• More than 540 million tons of coal equivalent in total by 2020
Renewables to Be 11.4% and 15% of Energy
Consumption Mix by 2015 and 2020
China Renewable Energy Target
Sustainable Energy Development—Supply
Photo: NASA
2012 2020 2030 2050
9.1
15
20
27
33
50
%
Year
Low
High
Low
High Super smart grid and high penetration
of renewable energy development
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
China Germany India United States
To
tal
Insta
lled
Cap
acit
y (
GW
)
Hydropower
Wind Power
Solar PV
Geothermal Power
Biomass Power
Installed Renewable Capacity
Source: REN21
LBNL CIS, 11,192
LBNL AIS, 7,352
ERI Baseline, 14,200
ERI Efficient, 12,200
ERI Low Carbon, 8,700
ERI Accel Low Carbon, 5,100
6908
9600
IEA Ref, 11600
6631
8400
IEA 450, 7100
LBNL CIS with CCS, 10,716
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Tota
l CO
2 Em
issi
ons (
Mill
ion
tonn
es C
O2)
450 ppm
LBNL/IEA Reference scenarios
Comparison of Carbon Emissions among Scenarios Information Sources: : “China’s Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050,” LBNL report, 2011
China’s Climate Challenge
Information Source: ERI Report 2014
CO2 Emission Scenario 2010-2050
30.0
70.0
110.0
150.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
REF CM1 CM2 CM3
ETS in China
Sustainable Development: Low-Carbon Eco-Cities
The hope and advantage for late developing cities
10
20
30
40
50
60
PM
10 Le
vel (u
g/m
3)
0 20 40 60 80 100Level of Urbanization (%)
pm10hat1_u pm10hat2_u
01
23
CO
2 e
mis
sion
s (m
t/ca
pita
)
0 20 40 60 80 100Level of Urbanization (%)
co2hat1_u 2000s
1990s
2000s
1990s
2000s
CO2 PM10
China Position in UNFCCC Negotiation
China Role Is Critical