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Asian Studies 371

Jennifer Janisch Clifford

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One-fifth the Worlds population lives in

China. Worlds most populous nation, but will soon

be surpassed by India.

China is extremely important to globalsustainable development.

Issues: Pollution

Increased inequality

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2010 Census Chinas

Population: 1.34 billion Increased by 73.9 million in

ten years5.8% growth from 2000

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World Population now 7 billion& increasing 1.5% per year.Net gain of 230,000 people every day

At this rate World population coulddouble within 35 years.

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98% of population growth between 1998 &

2025 is expected to take place in the LDCs. UN projects 9.2 billion by 2050

High projection = 10.5 billion

Low projection = 8 billion

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Already showing signs that we have

exceeded the Carrying Capacity of the Earth Water StressOne billion people lack access to clean water

supply

Within 25 years 3 billion people will be living withwater stress

Resource Shortages General Resource Shortages Steel, aluminum, wood, concrete, oil, food

All driving up prices

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Total Fertility Rates (TFR) = # of live births

per woman Most LDCs have TFR > 5

Highest TFRs are concentrated in the poorestLDCs

Stationary population: Growth rate = 0

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China: Annual growth = 0.6%

India: Annual growth + 1.7% At this rate Indias population could reach 2.2

billion within 40 years.

U.S. Population is also growing too fast. U.S. population on track to double within 70

years.

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A child born in the U.S. or Canada consumes

5 Xs the resources that a child from an LDCdoes.

The affluent in the LDCs are exceeding thoseconsumption rates.

The 25% of the Worlds population living inthe industrialized countries consume > 70%of the Worlds resources.

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Population growth is a function of : Educational level of women (-)

Literacy rates of women (-)

Economic opportunities for women (-)

Access to family planning (-)

Infant mortality rates (+) Cultural preferences for boys (+)

Youth effect (+)

Poverty (+)

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Individual families/ couples determine familysize by comparing private marginal benefitswith private marginal costs.

Maximize personal welfare by equating MBswith MCs

Most benefits are internal.

Many costs are external or shared by society.

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Most empirical econometric studies showslow population growth to be positivelycorrelated with economic growth.

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) Higher ratio of K per worker: increasesproductivity per worker.

2) Youth effect (large % of the population ,15years) means large % is out of the labor force.

3) Female availability effect: high # ofchildren females are not available to join thelabor force.

4) With Youth Effect savings rate is lower;

supply of loanable funds for investment incapital is lower. Decrease in K leads to lowerproductivity.

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1) Pressure on natural resources

Decreases resources/person

Access to land

Agricultural productivity

Grainland per capita

2) Increasing conflict

Sudan Rwanda

3) Increased demand for firewood increases deforestation, decreasesproductivity of farmland, reduces food supply, leads to conflict overresources.

4) Increases Income Inequality

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UN study: every $1 spent in family planningpaid off in savings of $2 -$6

Population control would move us closer toMillennium Development Goals (MDGs)

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High Population growth & poverty are positively correlated.

Lift Worlds Poor out of poverty.

Focus on Poverty elimination & alleviation. Education for women.

Economic opportunities for women.

Increase Literacy

Decrease Infant Mortality Rates

Health care, health education

Eliminate cultural preferences for male babies througheducation & economic incentives.

Improve access to family planning.

Remove perverse incentives in DCs & LDCs.

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Control Population Growth

Stabilize world population at about 7.8 billionby 2050.

Reduce Consumption (Over-consumption bythe affluent).

Use our resources more efficiently.

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High population has been a concern for Chinasince 600 C.E.

1800s draconian population control policies

1956 Population control education

1979 One-Child Policy begun

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One-child policy begun in 1979 by DengXiaoping.

Urban couples: 1 child

Rural couples: 2 children

Minorities: Not subject to the law

One child families are rewarded with betterchild care, education, housing assignments.

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TFR fell to 1.4

Prevented population increase of 300 -400million people.

Pew Center survey showed that 76% ofChinese people support the 1-child policy.

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Birth rates 118 M to 100 F

(Normally: 105 M to 100F)

Shortage of marriageable women will cause social

unrest (projected 30 million more men than women in2020)

No penalty for multiple births on first pregnancy:

multiple births per year doubled by 2006.

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Poverty Measures

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More than 1.2 billion people live on