of 42
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China is seeking to expand its regional role and
influence in line with its historical attitude towardsits frontiers, Chinas goals might be defensive inorder to create a buffer against external influence,including United States ?
China is deliberately creating a sphere of influencein its backyard in which it will be the dominantpower ?
Discuss the peaceful rise or peacefuldevelopment of China in light of the two
statements.
CC 6290 China and Southeast Asia:
Politics, Economics and Regional Order
PRESENTATION
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BACKGROUND
CHINA
ASEANCENTRAL & NE ASIA
AFRICA
CONCLUSION
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BACKGROUND
CHINA
ASEANCENTRAL & NE ASIA
AFRICA
CONCLUSION
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A New Path for Chinas PeacefulRise and the Future of Asia
Zheng Bijian (Vice President of
the Central Party School of CPP)
President Hu Jintao
2003 Visit France
Regular meetings of PoliticalBureau
Premier Wen Jiabao
2003 Visit United States
ORIGINS
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Counter China Threat theories
Emphasize Chinas peaceful way in
emerging as a world power
OBJECTIVES
IS
Opportunities
Status Quo
Prosperity and progression
IS NOT
Threats
Change
Instability or regression
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DEVELOPMENT replaces RISE
rise evokes apprehension among Chinas neighborsand strategic competitors
A sign of Chinas sensitivity towards its international
audience
CHANGE OF WORDING
Confucian pluralistic world view : Harmony in diversity (heerbutong)
China as a rising power will not seek to challenge the UShegemonic position, despite it will continue to practice its ownstyle of socialism
keep on peaceful development road thro diplomacy andinternal policy
IDEOLOGY
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BACKGROUND
CHINA
ASEANCENTRAL & NE ASIA
AFRICA
CONCLUSION
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CHINA
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HISTORICAL
ATTITUDE
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Tributary States / Vassal states / SinocentrismTributary States / Vassal states / Sinocentrism
InIn pre-modernpre-modern timestimes Viewing China as the only civilization in the worldViewing China as the only civilization in the world
Foreign nations or ethnic groups as "barbariansForeign nations or ethnic groups as "barbarians Tribute for China : Symbolic Recognition and reinforcementTribute for China : Symbolic Recognition and reinforcement
"The Emperor of the land where the sun rises sends a letterto the Emperor of the land where the sun sets to ask if youare healthy?
( ) Year 581 618, SuiDynasty
HISTORICAL
ATTITUDE
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Hu Jintao
Sorry, no more apology
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Chinas Economic Growth 1981-
2005
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Chinas Economic Growth 2006
World Economic Forecast 2005 -2008
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Assumed Average Growth Followed the trend 1980 - 2005
PROJECTED TOTAL GDP OF US, JAPAN & CHINA2005 2050Measured in Nominal Dollars
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GDP per person
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Assumed GDP and Population Followed the trend 1980 - 2005
PROJECTED GDP per HEAD OF CHINA as % of USs2005 2050Measured in Nominal Dollars
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Regional Power: YES
Weakness: Still 10 years behind modernization
Pragmatic way to go
A LITTLE SUMMARY
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BACKGROUND
CHINA
ASEANCENTRAL & NE ASIA
AFRICA
CONCLUSION
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Friendliness and companionship toneighbors
Calming, enriching and befriending
The 10-Nation ASEAN will help the Association to play abigger role in the international and regional affairs.
Meanwhile, we believe the enlargement of the ASEAN willbenefit the long-term peace and stability of Asia, which is inaccordance the trend of global multi-polarization.
Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Wang Yi , 1999
Good Neighborliness policy:
ASEAN
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Trade between China & ASEAN (US $)
Trade & Finance
1997 25.4 billion
2003 78.3 billion
2005 130.4billionAfter work began on the Sino-ASEAN free trade zone on July 20 last
year, leading to tariff reductions for approximately 7,000 categoriesof goods, China and ASEAN have entered a new stage in terms ofeconomic cooperation and trade ties.
Yi Xiaozhun, Vice minister of Commerce of PRC
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US$1 billion in financialassistance to Thailand
US$4-6 billion for the IMF
programme to support SEA
Trade & Finance
ACFTA / CAFTA 2010
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Lots of Documents and Paperssssss
Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in South China
Sea Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia
Joint Declaration on Strategic Partnership: Politicalsecurity, economic, cultural, regional andinternational cooperation
Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity
Protocol to the Treaty on Southeast Asia NuclearWeapon Free Zone (Coming Soon)
Politics and Security
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ASEAN : vital diplomatic space for China
China will make strong efforts to maintain goodrelations with ASEAN, a showcase to the world (Zheng)
Calculative strategy
A Little Summary
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BACKGROUND
CHINA
ASEANCENTRAL & NE ASIA
AFRICA
CONCLUSION
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Shanghai CooperationOrganization
Member countries:China
Kazakhstan
KyrgyzstanRussia
TajikistanUzbekistan
Observer Countries:
IndiaIran
MongoliaPakistan
Security and Stability : Central andNortheast Asia
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Six Party Talk : North Korea
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The two things China fears the most are a NorthKorean collapse and another war on the Koreanpeninsula BBC
The best situation for China is a relatively obeying
North Korean regime which would continue tosurvive
Six Party Talk : North Korea
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BACKGROUND
CHINA
ASEANCENTRAL & NE ASIA
AFRICA
CONCLUSION
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China's development is peaceful, open, cooperative and harmoniousin nature.
We aim to build a harmonious society at home, and work with othercountries to build a harmonious world of enduring peace and common
prosperity
more than 100 years in China's modern history, the Chinese peoplewere subjected to colonial aggression and oppression by foreignpowers and went through similar suffering and agony that the
majority of African countries endure.
Chinese President Hu Jintao
At University of Pretoria on February Africas visit
Histories
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Kung Fu II
Director: Stephen Chow
Casino Royale
Director: Stanley Ho
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Chinas oil consumption
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China has used its veto at the UN Security Councilto block moves to impose sanctions on Sudan unlessit stops the fighting in Darfur.
Mr Hu had urged the Sudan Government "to workmore earnestly to get the rebels who did not signthe Darfur peace agreement to join the process". Hesaid that Mr Hu stressed to Mr Bashir: "You have toresolve this problem.
respect the sovereignty of Sudan," while writing offdebts and providing an interest-free loan to build anew presidential palace.
Chinas Attitude
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There have been some mixed signals,obviously," said U.S. State Departmentspokesman Sean McCormack in Washington
International Responses
"There is a big role for China," said a BritishForeign Office official. "It has huge influence inSudan. It has been helpful so far but we haveurged it, through prime ministerial and otherhigh level contacts, to do more.
We want it to press Sudan not to carry out
further bombing in Darfur and to play its partin renewing the political process and helpingthe expansion of the peacekeeping force."
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Among Africans, the concerns about risingChinese clout are more often economic.
Textile mills from Nigeria to South Africa haveclosed amid a flood of inexpensive Chinese
imports.
Chinese purchases of mining concessions havestirred nationalist backlashes.
African Reaction
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BACKGROUND
CHINA
ASEANCENTRAL & NE ASIA
AFRICA
CONCLUSION
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Terrorism
Nuclear Proliferation
Oil & Gas Fields between China and Japan
HIstoriesssss of Sino-Japanese war
China Threat
New Colonialism
Taiwans independence
High Unemployment Rate
Wide Income Gap
Corruption
International and Internal
Environment
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Deployment of "soft power" - aid, trade and thepromotion of a political model which puts developmentbefore democracy.
Jing Huang, of the Brookings Institution in Washington,says this is the most potent threat from China to theWest: "What it really challenges is a value system. Whowe are and what we want to be."
Potential power over other nations, howeverbenevolent its purpose leads inevitably toimperialism.
Robert Taft, U.S. Senator 19391953
Skepticism
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Rise implies that others must decline, at least in a relative sense
while development suggests that Chinas advance can bringothers along
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Concept
Both directs to internal and externalenvironment
Nature
No longer military or occupationDifferent from 15th to 18th centuriessuperpowerImpossible and not feasible for China to be
assertiveEconomic diplomacy
Future Outlook
More on negotiations, cooperation, economicmeasures
Peaceful Development
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PEACEFUL RICEMade in New Peking Restaurant, using Japanese post WWII recipe
Distributions:China and neighboring countries including Japan, North & South Korea,Taiwan, ASEAN
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REFERENCES
Yongnian ZHENG, Sow Keat TOK (2005) Chinas Peaceful Rise:Concept and Practice, China Policy Institute , University ofNottingham
Ong Keng Yong, Securing a Win-Win Partnership for ASEAN andChina
Cai Bingku, Chinas Peaceful Development and relations withits East Asian Neighbors
Thank You Very Much~~