8/8/2019 China's Rising Leaders

1/4

c r e

d i t t k

8/8/2019 China's Rising Leaders

2/4

Acommunist party

Congress might seemlike a throwback to anolder, less dynamicChina. What the pub-lic sees o these events,scheduled once every

ve years, are video clips o 2,000-plus bureaucrats in the Great Hall o thePeople, a monumental, socialist-realistedice in the heart o Beijing. In a vastauditorium swathed in a sea o red bun-ting, theyll listen to hours and hourso turgid speeches and then cast near-unanimous votes.

Yet when ocials rom across thecountry converge on Oct. 15 or thePartys 17th Congress, it wont just be aceremonial exercise. True, the aces atthe very top wont changePresidentHu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao willalmost certainly rule or another ve

years. But below them, a new genera-tion o leaders will likely be promotedinto key positions.

Most important or oreign businessand Chinas trading partners, this will

be a new leadership that largely knowsand appreciates the rules o the road

or a market-based economy. Many othese up-and-comers have ought in thetrenches o Chinas reorm wars, have theskills needed to run complex economies,and have shed earlier generations mis-trust o oreigners. They certainly wontturn China into a replica o the U.S. sys-tem. But the dialogue they start with the

West may be the most substantive andar-reaching yet.

english-speakersin their 50s, this bunch came o ageduring the chaos and violence o the Cul-tural Revolution, and most began theircareers ater Deng Xiaoping introducedeconomic reorms in the late 1970s. Theprognostication is that they will be moreprogressive, pragmatic, and orward-thinking, says Scott Kronick, presidento Ogilvy Public Relations Worldwide inChina. Hu and Wen spent their ormative

years in remote Western China wherethey had little contact with outsiders. Yetmany in this generation speak Englishand have traveled widely. Some havestudied at Western universities, and most

have advanced degrees in social sciences,economics, and law.

News&Insights

Beijings next cadre is market-smart, business-savvyand may

be even open to changeBy Dexter roBerts

anD Chi-Chu tsChang

ChinasrisingleaDers

nations

illustrationbychangpark

October 1, 2007 |BusinessWeek|33

8/8/2019 China's Rising Leaders

3/4

a n d

r e w w o n g / g e t t y i m a g e s

34|BusinessWeek| October 1, 2007

Case in point: Zhou Xiaochuan, cur-rently head o the Peoples Bank oChina. The ormer economics proessorand fuent English-speaker is a strongcontender or vice-premier in charge onance. One o Chinas most sophisti-cated economic minds, he can hold hisown with the likes o Alan Greenspan,Ben S. Bernanke, and other central

bankers. He has already grappled withintransigent rivals opposed to his driveto clean up Chinas notoriously shityequity markets: His drive to crack downon stock manipulators earned him thenickname The Flayer. He shares ma-

jor responsibility or Chinas opening oits nancial sector to big Western banksand brokerages.

Contrast Zhous record with the cur-rent leadership team, and the dier-ences are striking. Until now, Chinas

leaders have had a denite discomortin dealing with the outside, says KentD. Kedl, a China hand or the pasttwo decades and now general managero Technomic Asia, a Shanghai-basedmarket strategy consulting rm. Mostare career bureaucrats in their 60s whostudied hard sciences or engineering.Few have graduate degrees and some

have no higher education at all. MaoZedongs comrades-in-arms are longgone, but todays top leaders are romthe rst post-revolutionary generationand began their careers during the Cul-tural Revolution.

DeeperWesterntiesmore comfort with the outside doesntnecessarily mean a greater willingnessto do what outsiders want. CommerceMinister Bo Xilai, or instance, may

become vice-premier and take over asChinas top trade ocial. Bo would beat home in Washington or New York:Hes stylistically very un-Chinese, aMayor Ed Koch type, says SinologistKenneth G. Lieberthal o the Univer-sity o Michigan. Highly educatedheholds a masters degree in journalismrom the Chinese Academy o Social

Scienceshe has been a requent critico Washington on trade. Bo Xilai wont

be so accommodating, says ChengLi, a senior ellow at the BrookingsInstitution, a Washington think tank.

Whats more, those who have seen Boat work in negotiating rooms say hisrhetoric is matched by the brilliance ohis arguments.

Overall, however, this generation willdeepen Chinas engagement with the

West. Li Yuancho, 56, is a contender

PassingThe TorchFive generations of leadership

Revolution1949-1976Mao consolidated power with the supporto revolutionaries rom the civil war and theLong March. This group was largelyocused on building the Party and therevolution to the detriment o economic

growth and pragmatism.

Reform1949-1976Deng Xiaoping shared Maos revolutionarybackground and endured several purges,but ultimately opened China to economicreorm via his socialism with Chinesecharacteristics. His limited tolerance orreorm was evident in the bloodyTiananmen Square crackdown in 1989.

Growth1989-2002Led by Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji. Bothwere groomed in Chinas reewheelingnancial capital, Shanghai, and had regularcontact with oreign businesspeople. Jiangsecured the place o private enterprise bywriting its role into the Constitution, and

the economy started to take o.

Stability2002-2012Some thought current President Hu Jintaoand Premier Wen Jiabao might introducepolitical reorm, but theyve cracked downon dissent while working to improve the loto Chinas poorest. The economy has comeclose to overheating as local ocials pursueGDP growth at all costs.

Vision2012-??Unlike engineers Hu and Wen and theirtechnocrats, the new leaders are trained inlaw, economics, and social sciences. Thehope is theyll embrace political reorm butprove more adept at managing Chinas

increasingly complex economy.

News&Insights

great hall Morethan 2000 will be atthe Oct. 15 congress

8/8/2019 China's Rising Leaders

4/4October 1, 2007 |BusinessWeek|35

eug

enehoshiko/apphoto;qilaishen/bloo

mbergnews;jasonlee/newscom;lucasschifres/bloombergnews

or Hus job. Trained in economics andlaw, he runs coastal Jiangsu provinceand has helped turn it into a modeleconomy, attracting record amountso oreign investment rom the likeso Emerson Electric, Advanced MicroDevices, and Sony. Even the nationalist

Bo took a backwater northeast town,Dalian, and turned it into a sotwareoutsourcing center or Japanese busi-ness. That made it one o the hottesturban economies in China.

Some predict these new leaders, oncethey take over the top positions, mighteven start to dabble in democracy. Many,particularly those who attended PekingUniversity in the late 70s and 80s,participated in elections on campus.Theres much more appreciation othe plurality o interests in the economyand in society, says Joseph Cheng, a

proessor o political science at CityUniversity o Hong Kong.

three-Wayracethe new leaders will begin to assertthemselves over the next ve years, even

while Hu and Wen remain rmly in con-trol until the ollowing Party Congressin 2012. Many see a three-way race tosucceed Hu. Besides Li Yuancho, theresLi Keqiang, the 52-year-old party sec-retary o the northeastern provinceo Liaoning, the heart o Chinas oldindustrial rustbelt. He has a PhD in

economics and a law degree but detailso his perormance are scarce. Perhapsmost important when it comes to suc-cession, hes a veteran o the infuentialCommunist Youth League, Hus power

basemaking him the leading candi-date. The other apparent contender orthe top job is Wang Yang, 52, who runsChinas largest city, Chongqing.

As the nations economy continues tosurge, the emerging leadership will acea host o challenges. Theyll need to crata quick and rm response to this sum-mers tide o unsae and poorly madegoods rom Chinas actories. Theyllace growing pressure rom Washing-ton over their ballooning trade surplus.

And to get a handle on everything rompollution to job saety to countereitingto corruption, theyll need to rein in lo-cal ocials who oten ignore Beijingsedicts and ocus on economic growth,no matter the cost. The next generationo leaders will have to be attuned to

whats going on globally, says YangDali, director o the East Asia Instituteat the National University o Singapore,

and willing to adapt, to learn, and alsotake decisive actions when needed. zz

Zhou Xiaochuan

age:59

eDucation: BA, auto-mation, Beijing Univ. oChemical Tech.; PhD,economics, Tsinghua Univ.

experience:Governor,Peoples Bank o China,chair, China SecuritiesRegulatory Commission

His ather was MachineryMinister. The English-speaker has won praise ascentral bank chie.

Wang Yang

age:52

eDucation:BA,management, Universityo Science & Technology

experience: Chongqingparty secretary, vice-director o the NationalDevelopment & ReormCommission

Spent early career in theCommunist Youth League.Almost certain to win aseat on the Politburo.

Li Yuanchao

age:56

eDucation: BA, math,Fudan Univ.; MA, econ.mgmt., Peking Univ.; PhD,law, Central Party School

experience: JiangsuProvince party secretary,vice minister o culture

Spent time at Harvard as avisiting scholar in 2002.Considered a Hu protgas both came rom theCommunist Youth League.

Xi Jinping

age:54

eDucation: BS, chemicalengineering, and PhD,law, Tsinghua Univ.

experience:Shanghaiparty secretary, Zhejiangprovince party secretary,Fujian Province governor.

On his rst trip to Chinaas U.S. Treasury Secretary,Hank Paulson traveled toHangzhou specically tomeet with Xi.

Li Keqiang

age:52

eDucation: BA, law,Peking Univ.; PhD,economics, Peking Univ.

experience: LiaoningProvince party secretary,governor o Henanprovince

Like Hu Jintao, Li climbedup through the ranks othe Communist YouthLeague. Believed to beHus preerred successor.

Bo Xilai

age:58

eDucation: BA, history,Peking Univ.; MA,journalism, ChineseAcademy o Soc. Sciences

experience:Minister ocommerce, governor oLiaoning Province

His ather was a partyelder and a condant oDeng Xiaoping. Bo is a topcandidate or vice-premierin charge o oreign trade.

Faces To WatchSome likely leaders of Beijings next generation