Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 Future Networks John Visser, CD, P.Eng. +1 613 276 6096...

Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011

Future NetworksJohn Visser, CD, P.Eng.

+1 613 276 [email protected]

ITU Regional Workshop on “Bridging the Standardization Gap for CIS States”

(Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 )

mailto:[email protected]

Outline

Changes and DiscontinuitiesWhere Should Intelligence Reside?SG 13 Work on “Future Networks”Some Thoughts on the Future

2Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011

Fundamental Changes in Telecoms

Started with TelegraphData (Morse code)



TelegraphTelephone

Manual to mechanical to software switchingAnalog to TDM to IP



TelegraphTelephoneData

Circuit-based, non-switchedPacket dataIP



TelegraphTelephoneDataInternet and the WWW

IP


Internet Protocol(IP)

Any Service&

Every Service

Any Transport&

Every Transport Technology

Everything Over IP andIP Over Everything


Telecommunications Industry: Constant Innovation

Analog to Digital

Wireline to Wireless

Copper to Fiber

Wireless to WiMAX/4G/LTE

VoIP and Converged Communications

VoIP and Converged Communications

Change comes from disruption. And disruption is constant!


Discontinuities

Transition from Fixed to MobileGrowth of fixed services slowing, turning negativeMobile phone growth continues but levelling off due to market saturation


Data Network

Discontinuities

Transition from Analog to DataOn circuit-switched (analog or TDM) voice networks, data is handled by making it look like voice (modems)

On packet switched data networks, voice is handled by making it look like data (VoIP)

Phone Network


Discontinuities and Convergence

Once we just had a telephone on our desks.Then we added a computer mainframe terminal,but replaced that with a personal computer …… which became portable (laptop), …… we added wireless networking including voice, but we shrunk them a little too much …

… so we enlarged them to just about the right size.


Outline



Intelligence was centralized, but is it in the right place?

We began with human operators “inside the network” handling switching and services for “hard-wired” subscribers, …... “progressed” to analog mechanical circuit switching (SxS), ...

... refined it with stored program control (#5 XBar, SP1), ...


We continued with the assumption that terminals were “dumb” …

We converted from analog to digital transmission and switching.We centralized network intelligence into with replicated islands of intelligence enabled by common channel signalling.


… but ISDN and Mobilitychanged everything!

Suddenly terminals had to be able to do a great deal more:

A functional ISDN terminal is a de facto 2 line exchange!

Cellular networks added a new dimension to what terminals had to do:

Mobility!


Evolution!

We’ve gone from one extreme to the other:

Start: all intelligence in the network and none at the edges “dumb” terminalsAdvances in technology enabled intelligence to migrate to terminals connected to a “dumb” network

Neither end of the pendulum swing is ideal …

“Bell-heads”

“Net-heads”


Outline



ITU-T SG 13 - Future Networks including Mobile and NGN

WP 5/13 Future Networks Q.7/13 Impact of IPv6 to an NGN Q.19/13 Distributed services

networking (DSN) Q.20/13 Public data networks Q.21/13 Future networks

Rec. Y.3001 Future Networks: Objectives and Design goalsApproved May 2011


An overview…4 Objectives and 12 Design Goals

4 Objectives

Service-awareness

Data-awareness

Environment-awareness

Social and economic awareness

RealizationFunctions appropriate to service needsHuge volumes, widely distributedEnergy efficient, recyclable materials; displace energy intensive activitiesReduced barriers to entry, reduced life cycle costs


Relationship between Objectivesand Design Goals

Fig. 1/Rec. Y.3001


Future Networks – More on the 12 Design Goals

Service diversity

Functional flexibility

Virtualization of resourcesData access

Diverse traffic: a few bps to ≥Gbps; delay (in)tolerant; simple sensors to complex terminalsAgility in deploying new servicesEfficiencies, commonalitiesVery high capacity for consumer generated volume


Future Networks – Design Goals

Energy consumption

Service universalizationEconomic incentives

Network management

Full life cycle for equipment; lower energy technologies and conservationAvailable to everyoneCompetition through standards and open interfacesFlexible, enough capacity, simple, self configuring


Future Networks – Design Goals

Mobility

Optimization

Identification

Reliability and Security

Full mobility for large scale and high speed networksOptimize capacity for service requirementsNew schema for many more devicesDesigned-in, including user privacy


Outline



Advances

1889 to 1950AutomobileRefrigerationElectricityTelephone

1950 to 2011Jet planeMan on the moonComputerInternet

What advances will we make between today and 2072?


Some Key Developments

Computing technology advances enable more powerful, faster computersToday’s personal computer is yesterday’s super computerTechnology applied in handsets: as powerful as desktop PCs a few years ago


Irreversible Changes

Trusted

Change is constant: adapt and adopt!

Enterprise-Driven

Hardware-Centric

Wireline

People to Machines

Peripheral Security

Proprietary Interfaces

Consumer-Driven

Software-Centric

Wireless

Machine to Machine

Embedded

Open (incl. Policy)


Megatrends

Mega trends aredefining a new era:

Hyper-connectivityNetwork-awareapplications andapplications-awarenetworksTrue Broadband

Technology is all about enabling users to do what they want to do!

Carrier Enterprise

Wired

Wireless

Applications

Infrastructure

The world is rapidly becoming Hyperconnected!


Hyperconnectivity

Anything that can be usefully connected will be connected


Communications-Enabled Applications

• Reinvention of services and applications to support new levels of network-aware intelligence and an intuitive interaction experience• Achieve through advanced technology

frameworks such as IMS and Services Oriented Architecture (SOA)


True Broadband

• The communications experience is so seamless that users no longer have to consider which technology is being used to make a connection.

• Users simply communicate, anywhere, anytime from whichever device is most convenient. Most importantly, the broadband experience becomes so economical that the range of uses exceeds any experience of the past.


Three Phases of M2M Services

From T. Norp (TNO/KPN) presentation at ETSI M2M Workshop, 19-20 Oct 2010


Machine Type Communications

“The Internet of Things” (2005)Disproportionate impact of data applications


From S1-112284: 3GPP TR 22.801 V0.3.0 (2011-08)www.3gpp.org/ftp/tsg_sa/WG1_Serv/TSGS1_55_Dublin/Docs/S1-112284.zip

http://www.3gpp.org/ftp/tsg_sa/WG1_Serv/TSGS1_55_Dublin/Docs/S1-112284.zip

When Engineering Meets Medicine

An example of a new data application on a smart phone

Chişinău, Moldova, 7 October 2011 34

UBC Engineering Faculty publication, “Ingenuity”, Spring/Summer 2011 (not yet posted)hwww.engineering.ubc.ca/news-events/newsletters/ Article is also available from the UBC Faculty of Medicine web site:www.med.ubc.ca/media/med_mag/Spring_2011/When_engineering_meets_medicine.htm

http://www.engineering.ubc.ca/news-events/newsletters/

http://www.med.ubc.ca/media/med_mag/Spring_2011/When_engineering_meets_medicine.htm

Advances

1950 to 2011Jet planeMan on the moonComputerInternet

2011 to 2072Ubiquitous broadbandHyperconnectivityInternet of ThingsRobotics


In Closing: Some Quotations

“We always over-estimate the change that will occur in the next two years, and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten years.” *“When you get to a fork in the road, take it!” **“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” ***

* Bill Gates, Microsoft Corporation** Yogi Berra, American baseball player*** Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist



Thank you for your attention!

John Visser, CD, P.Eng.+1 613 276 6096

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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