WIG ‘Society’ Series
Chris Giles, Economics Editor, The Financial
TimesWednesday 6 November 2019
For other WIG events & opportunities visit www.wig.co.uk
Join the conversation @WIGuk | #WIGevents
UK economic outlook
Chris Giles
Financial Timeswww.ft.com • @ChrisGiles_
It’s Budget day!
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
Budget day - 2020
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
The global backdropRather gloomy
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
2019 has not lived up to expectations
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50
Spring 2014
Autumn 2014
Spring 2015
Autumn 2015
Spring 2016
Autumn 2016
Spring 2017
Autumn 2017
Spring 2018
Autumn 2018
Spring 2019
Autumn 2019
IMF forecasts for global growth in 2019
Global recession
Chris Giles, Financial Times6 November 2019 UK economic outlook
Chris Giles, Financial Times6 November 2019 UK economic outlook
Chris Giles, Financial Times6 November 2019 UK economic outlook
2019 has not lived up to expectations
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50
Spring 2014
Autumn 2014
Spring 2015
Autumn 2015
Spring 2016
Autumn 2016
Spring 2017
Autumn 2017
Spring 2018
Autumn 2018
Spring 2019
Autumn 2019
IMF forecasts for global growth in 2019
Global recession
Global outlook a little better in 2020
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50
Spring 2014
Autumn 2014
Spring 2015
Autumn 2015
Spring 2016
Autumn 2016
Spring 2017
Autumn 2017
Spring 2018
Autumn 2018
Spring 2019
Autumn 2019
IMF forecasts for global growth in 2019 and 2020
2019
2020
Global recession
What about Brexit?The UK in the global economy
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
Recent UK underperformance…
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Index: 2014=100
…has cost 2 to 3 per cent of GDP
Eurozone UK US
Brexit vote
Reality compared with post-referendum forecasts
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2
% o
f G
DP
Development of absolute forecast errors
BoE forecast OBR Consensus Economists for Brexit
The transition forecast?
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
Reality compared with post-referendum forecasts
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2
% o
f G
DP
Development of absolute forecast errors
BoE forecast OBR Consensus Economists for Brexit Treasury shock Treasury severe
The government thinks a FTA is worse
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
If today was Budget day…The UK outlook
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
A slowing economy recently…
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
And businesses are nervous
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
But wages are stronger…
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
Even if the good times might not last…
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
The big question for the Budget
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
If I had to guess…on the economy
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
If I had to guess…on the economy
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
…on the public finances
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
Borrowing rule broken
It’s all a bit like 2006…
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
That’s before the “Infrastructure revolution”
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
The election and the economyA stark choice
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
For some, it’s not at all obvious...
6 November 2019 UK economic outlook Chris Giles, Financial Times
IFS and Citi scenarios
UK economic outlook
Chris Giles
Financial Timeswww.ft.com • @ChrisGiles_
WIG ‘Society’ Series
Chris Giles, Economics Editor, The Financial
TimesWednesday 6 November 2019
For other WIG events & opportunities visit www.wig.co.uk
Join the conversation @WIGuk | #WIGevents
www.wig.co.uk
Upcoming events
Thursday 14 November
Exploring the future UK-EU relationshipwith speakers from King’s College London and Brunswick Group
Wednesday 4 December
James Landale, Diplomatic Correspondent, BBC
Thursday 23 January
Sir Simon McDonald KCMG KCVO, Permanent Under Secretary and Head of
the Diplomatic Service, Foreign and Commonwealth Office
WIG Leadership Programmes
Speak to one of the team for more details
