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Christi Willison | PB | 505-878-6564 | [email protected]
Development of an Activity-Based Model in the Lake Tahoe Region
Lake Tahoe Region
TRPA 55,000 Residents 282 TAZs Nearby Cities Winter activities Summer activities Who’s here
Lake Tahoe Region
TRPA 55,000 Residents 282 TAZs Nearby Cities Winter activities Summer activities Who’s here
Tahoe Model Overview
Activity-based resident modelsActivity-based non-resident
modelsSeasonal residentDay visitorOvernight visitorExternal Worker
Resident Models – Data needed
Resident Models
Winter and Summer versionTransCAD interfaceMonte-carlo simulation Implemented in JAVAAsserted coefficients based on our
work for MORPC.Main effort was on calibration and
validation
Mid-Ohio Region
•MORPC•1,400,000 residents•2000 TAZs•Model used since 2005
Intra-household Interactions
Entire-Day Level
Joint Activity-Episode Level
Task Allocation Level
Activity Coordination Resource Allocation
Allocation of carsto household
members
Coordinated DAP type
JOINT non-mandatory activity
RIDE sharing for mandatory activity
ESCORT children
ALLOCATED maintenance task
Mandatory Non-Mandatory Home
√
√
√
Time Windows
7:00 22:00
TOD
7:00 16:00
10:00 19:00
3-hour overlap
Tou
r gen
era
tion
MORPC Core Demand Models
1. Household car ownership
Mandatory(work / university / school)
Non-mandatory(maintenance / discretionary)
At home/absent(no travel)
Primary destination (5) TOD(6) and mode (7)
3. Joint HH tour generation & participation of HH members
Residual time windows forpersons
4.1-4.2. Maintenance HH tour generation & allocation to HH members
Destination (5), TOD (6) & mode (7) for non-mandatory joint & individual tours
8. Secondary stop frequency, location, and trip mode choice
2. Linked daily activity patterns for HH members
4.3. Discretionary individual tour generation
Comparison of Individual Maintenance Tour Destination Choice Results
Distance Summary ( Miles)
Household SurveyMORPC Model
Applied To TahoeCalibrated Tahoe
ModelAverage 3.082 5.665 3.154
Standard Dev. 3.140 6.364 2.862
Individual Maintenance Distance Distribution - MORPC Model Applied To Tahoe
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
0-3 3-6 6-9 9-12 12-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35+
Distance Category (Miles)
Pe
rce
nt
of
To
urs
Survey
Model
IIndividual Maintenance Distance Distribution - Calibrated Tahoe Model
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
0-3 3-6 6-9 9-12 12-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35+
Distance Category (Miles)
Per
cen
t of T
ou
rs
Survey
Model
Maintenance Tour Destination Choice Results – External/Internal tours
Internal-Internal/Internal-External Split
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
Int-Int Int-Ext
Survey
Model
Internal-Internal/Internal-External Split
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
Int-Int Int-Ext
Survey
Model
Internal-External Tours - External Stations Distribution
0.00%
5.00%10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%30.00%
35.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
External Station
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
To
urs
Survey
Model
MORPC Model
Applied to Tahoe
Calibrated Tahoe Model
Internal-External Tours - External Stations Distribution
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
External Station
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
To
urs
Survey
Model
Indiv. Maint. DC Coefficients
3.0500Dummy for ext zone 7
3.2500Dummy for ext zone 6
4.2500Dummy for ext zone 5
-3.0500Dummy for ext zone 4
1.9000Dummy for ext zone 3
3.5000Dummy for ext zone 2
3.6500Dummy for ext zone 1
-999.0000-999.0000No Attractions
0.76650.7665School child (pre-driving) at home and destination within 3 miles
0.87430.8743Preschool child at home & destination within 3 miles
0.55080.5508Number of cars less than workers - long walk to transit
1.63301.6330Number of cars less than workers - short walk to transit
2.17302.1730No cars in household & short walk to transit
-0.2494-0.2494Binary for rural at origin, suburban at destination
0.43320.4332Binary for urban at origin, urban at destination
0.84170.8417Size variable
1.00001.0000Mode Choice Logsum forMandatory Daily Activity Pattern
1.00001.0000Mode Choice Logsum for Non-Mandatory Daily Activity Pattern
-0.4948-0.2348Distance - Child
-0.3568-0.1368Distance - Adult (Non-Mandatory Daily Activity Pattern)
-0.4419-0.1819Distance - Adult (Mandatory Daily Activity Pattern)
Calibrated Tahoe Model
MORPC ModelVariable
3.0500Dummy for ext zone 7
3.2500Dummy for ext zone 6
4.2500Dummy for ext zone 5
-3.0500Dummy for ext zone 4
1.9000Dummy for ext zone 3
3.5000Dummy for ext zone 2
3.6500Dummy for ext zone 1
-999.0000-999.0000No Attractions
0.76650.7665School child (pre-driving) at home and destination within 3 miles
0.87430.8743Preschool child at home & destination within 3 miles
0.55080.5508Number of cars less than workers - long walk to transit
1.63301.6330Number of cars less than workers - short walk to transit
2.17302.1730No cars in household & short walk to transit
-0.2494-0.2494Binary for rural at origin, suburban at destination
0.43320.4332Binary for urban at origin, urban at destination
0.84170.8417Size variable
1.00001.0000Mode Choice Logsum forMandatory Daily Activity Pattern
1.00001.0000Mode Choice Logsum for Non-Mandatory Daily Activity Pattern
-0.4948-0.2348Distance - Child
-0.3568-0.1368Distance - Adult (Non-Mandatory Daily Activity Pattern)
-0.4419-0.1819Distance - Adult (Mandatory Daily Activity Pattern)
Calibrated Tahoe Model
MORPC ModelVariable
Comparison: Mode Choice for Low-Inc Work Tours
Mode Choice Split - Work Tour, Low IncomeMORPC Model Applied to Tahoe
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
Drive Alone Shared Auto Drive to Transit Walk to Transit Non-Motorized
Mode
Sh
are
Survey
Model
Mode Choice Split - Work Tour, Low IncomeCalibrated Tahoe Model
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
Drive Alone Shared Auto Drive to Transit Walk to Transit Non-Motorized
Mode
Sh
are
Survey
Model
Comparison of Mode Choice for Low-Income Work Tours
Drive Alone Shared Auto Walk to Transit Drive to Transit Non-MotorizedOriginal MORPC Alternative Specific Constants 1.6490 -0.4000 -0.1809 -1.4760 2.0533Calibrated Tahoe Model Alternative Specific Constants 1.2287 -1.8000 1.6000 -1.5000 3.4600Value of TimeTimeNatural log of travel distance -0.3148Urban origin 0.5720 0.5720Urban destination 0.7718 0.7718 0.8453Number of cars less than number of drivers -1.4160 -0.7176 0.6831No cars in household -999.0000 2.3480 2.3090Part time adult worker 0.3582Child and of driving age -0.9617Child and not of driving age -999.0000Home and school in same zone 0.2864Leave in the AM Peak 0.8498Return in the PM Peak 0.6257
-0.021348.03
Mode Choice Split - School (Child)MORPC Model Applied to Tahoe
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
Drive Alone Shared Auto Drive toTransit
Walk toTransit
Non-Motorized School Bus
Mode
Sh
are
Survey
Model
Comparison: Mode Choice School Tours
Mode Choice Split - School (Child) Calibrated Tahoe Model
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
Drive Alone Shared Auto Drive to Transit Walk to Transit Non-Motorized School Bus
Mode
Sh
are
Survey
Model
Mode Choice - School Tour Coefficients
Drive Alone Shared Auto Walk to Transit Drive to Transit Non-Motorized School BusOriginal MORPC Alternative Specific Constants -0.3236 0.1000 -5.4505 -533.4667 -0.3107 -0.3854Calibrated Tahoe Model Alternative Specific Constants 1.4200 0.6800 -1.8000 -533.4667 1.3600 -0.0500Value of TimeTimeNatural log of travel distance -0.2063 0.2035Low income household -0.3831 1.0639 0.1769High income household -0.6848Number of cars less than number of drivers -1.9801 2.2255 0.8314No cars in household -999.0000 3.6531 2.5646 1.0943Child is of driving age -1.2517Child not of driving age -999.0000Home and school in same zone 0.2864 0.0611
2.2400-0.0092
Comparison: Shopping Tour ParticipationIndividual Shop Tour Participation Rate by Person Type
MORPC Model Applied to Tahoe
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
Full Time Worker Part Time Worker Non-Worker Driving Child Non-Driving Child
Person Type
Pa
rtic
ipa
tio
n R
ate
Survey
Model
Individual Shop Tour Participation Rate by Person TypeCalibrated Tahoe Model
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
Full Time Worker Part Time Worker Non-Worker Driving Child Non-Driving Child
Person Type
Part
icip
ati
on
Rate Survey
Model
Full Time Worker Part Time Worker Non-Worker Pre-Driving Child Driving ChildOriginal MORPC Alternative Specific Constants 9.8280 9.9830 0.0000 6.1570 8.6060Calibrated Tahoe Model Alternative Specific Constants 9.4280 11.1230 14.1500 8.3570 8.6060Natrual log of person available time window 1.5600 1.4960 5.4070 2.3000 1.9650Person has non-mandatory daily activity pattern 0.5012 0.4458 0.6382Number of joint tour participants -0.3325 -0.4007 -1.3000Medium household incomeHigh household income -0.3646Non-driving child at home with adult 1.4740 2.3940 2.1540Non-driving child at home with no adult -0.3892Urban origin 0.7857 0.8552 0.7766 0.7484Suburban origin 0.7493 0.5524 0.5533 0.6173
Comparison: Shopping Tour Participation
Comparison: At-Work Tour Participation and Type Frequency Rates
At Work Tour Participation RateMORPC Model Applied to Tahoe
0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%
100.00%
Made Tour(s) No Tour(s)
Pa
rtic
ipta
tio
n R
ate Survey
Model
At Work Tour Participation RateCalibrated Tahoe Model
0.00%
10.00%20.00%
30.00%
40.00%50.00%
60.00%
70.00%80.00%
90.00%
Made Tour(s) No Tour(s)
Pa
rtic
ipta
tio
n R
ate Survey
Model
At Work Tour Type FrequencyMORPC Model Applied to Tahoe
0.00%5.00%
10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%50.00%
Eat Other Work-Related
2 WorkRelated
Eat, Work-Related
Tour Type
Fre
qu
ency
Survey
Model
At Work Tour Type FrequencyCalibrated Tahoe Model
0.00%5.00%
10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%50.00%
Eat Other Work-Related
2 WorkRelated
Eat, Work-Related
Tour Type
Fre
qu
ency
Survey
Model
Comparison of At-Work Tour Participation and Type Frequency Rates
No tour EatWork-
RelatedOther
2 Work-Related
Eat, Work-Related
Original MORPC Alternative Specific Constants - Full Time Worker -7.2800 -7.3750 -8.0930 -14.2800 -14.7900Original MORPC Alternative Specific Constants - Part Time Worker -8.6040 -13.3190 -13.2140 -19.2800 -19.7900Original MORPC Alternative Specific Constants - Not Full/Part Time Worker 0.0000 -5.0000 -5.0000 -5.0000 -5.0000Calibrated Tahoe Model Alternative Specific Constants - Full Time Worker -6.9300 -6.1550 -7.4080 -12.8700 -14.1200Calibrated Tahoe Model Alternative Specific Constants - Part Time Worker -7.4540 -10.4190 -11.6790 -15.3200 -20.3600Calibrated Tahoe Model Alternative Specific Constants - Not Full/Part Time Worker 0.6000 -3.5500 -4.4000 -3.0500 -6.3800Medium income household 0.6100 0.5555 0.1527 1.1110 1.1655High income household 0.8693 1.0660 0.1651 2.1320 1.9353No cars in household -0.3391 0.1762 0.0000 -0.3391Full time worker and already made individual discretionary tour 0.2334 0.7045 0.5061 1.4090 0.9379Part time worker and already made individual discretionary tour 0.6776 0.7045 0.5061 1.4090 1.3821Person already made an eating out tour 0.5491 0.5434 0.9166 1.0868 1.0925Full time worker and already made individual non-discretionary tour -0.0520 -0.1903 0.1446 -0.3806 -0.2423Part time worker and already made individual non-discretionary tour -0.3099 -0.1903 -0.2723 -0.3806 -0.5002Person already made a joint non-discretionary tour 0.2458 0.0830 0.0803 0.1660 0.3288Person already made a joint discretionary tour 0.3588 -0.2637 0.5822 -0.5274 0.0951Natural log of work duration 1.5500 1.1420 1.6590 2.2840 2.6920Drove alone to work 0.4804 0.9901 1.1530 1.9802 1.4705Person made two work tours -0.9862 0.3753 -0.2312 0.7506 -0.6109Workplace in urban area -0.4182 -0.2235 -0.1479 -0.4470 -0.6417Workplace in suburban area -0.2916 -0.1102 -0.2204 -0.4018Auto accessibility to retail factor 0.0150 0.0534 0.0265 0.1067 0.0683Walk accessibility to retail factor 0.1256 0.0806 0.1256Worker/student with non-mandatory daily activity pattern -0.3573
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