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Christian AzarChalmers University of Technology
Climate change and the future of energy
THE SCIENCE
Carbon dioxideCO2 ppm
0
1.5
1.0
0.5
360
340
320
300
280
260
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Radiative forcing Wm-2
The climate has already started to change
Impacts
• Temperature increase
Source: IPCC FAR (2007)
Impacts
• Sea level rise (0.2-0.6 meter by the year 2100)
• Thermal expansion of oceans
• Melting glaciers
• Possible long-term concern: Greenland and Western Antarctic ice sheets
Impacts
• Temperature increase
• Sea level rise
• More intense precipitation
• Droughts
• Biodiversity
• Positive impacts
• A lot of uncertainty remains
Flooding, Assam, India, July 2004
THE CHALLENGE
Global greenhouse gas emissions (2000)
Source:Stern report 2006
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels
Source: CDIAC
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
"Developed" nations
Former eastern bloc
"Developing" countries
billion tons C/year
Data from 2002. Sources: FAO, CDIAC
6
5
4
3
2
1
00 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Population (million)
CO
2 e
mis
sion
s (t
onC
/cap
ita)
USA
Canada, N.Z., Australia
Russia Japan
W.Europe
E.Europe Middle East
China L.America Other Asia
India Africa
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels (per capita 2002)
SOME SOLUTIONS
Options to reduce CO2 emissions from the energy system
Use less energy
Use other forms of energy
Capture and store carbon
Energy efficiency – half of the solution!
Plug-in hybrids
Co-generation Energy efficient lamps
Energy-efficient houses
Rapid growth in wind power
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1990 2000
GW
Rapid growth in wind power
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1990 2000
GW
Fuel use in Swedish district heating
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
TWh/år
BiomassOil
Coal
Others
Biomass – a complex form of energy
PROMISING FORMS: - Sugar cane ethanol- Woody biomass for heat and co-generation
LESS PROMISING- Wheat ethanol- RME from rapeseed (area intensive, expensive, often associated with high GHG emissions)
RISKS & OPPORTUNITIESHigher food prices Sensitive ecosystems
769 Mha
1960 Mha
Sweden 45 Mha
957 Mha
317 Mha
1787 Mha3031 Mha
507 MhaRussia 1708 Mha
500 Mha of energy plantations?
Biomass plantations
Millons of hectares of biomass – dream eller nightmare?
Future role of nuclear power?
Herzog et al Scientific American, February 2000.
with structural traps
130 – 500 Gton C
30 – 650 Gton C
Enhanced oil recovery
20 – 65 Gton C
Grimston et al (2001).
Carbon storage possibilities
Biomass energy
CO2
Wood
CO2
Power
Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage
CO2
WoodPower
CO2
10,000 times more energy from the sun
The small squares show the area of solar cells required to power and fuel the world
Energy scenario towards 350 ppmv
Azar et al, Climatic Change (2006)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
EJ/yr
nuclear
coal
oil
solar H2
biomass
solar electr.
wind
gas
solar heat
hydro
coal w capt.
gas w capt.
bio w capt.
The cost to stabilise the atmosphere (I)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
350 ppm 450 ppm 550 ppm
stabilisation target
Trillion USD
Azar & Schneider, 2002. Ecological Economics
The cost to stabilise the atmosphere (II)
Source Azar & Schneider, 2002. Ecological Economics
Global GDP
0
50
100
150
200
250
90 2000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2100
Year
Trillion USD/yr
Bau
350 ppm
450 ppm
550 ppm
CLIMATE POLICY
Policy measures are needed
•Carbon price (tax or cap-and-trade system)– It is the cap not the trade that reduces emissions
•Energy efficiency standards
•Support to advanced technologies – R&D
– Market diffusion programmes
International negotiations
• UNFCCC 1992
• Kyoto protocol 1997
• Bali action plan 2007
• Copenhagen meeting in December 2009:
– Capping emissions in ”developed countries”,
– Emission reductions in ”developing countries”,
– Financing adaptation,
– Mechanisms to reduce deforestation
Conclusions
• Tough challenge
• Technically feasible… (aviation and meat consumption possible exemptions)
• Economically feasible…
• But trends go in the wrong direction
• Policy measures needed, but is there enough political will?
• Points for discussions:
– Which role for Indonesia?
How do we best protect sensitive ecosystems and rural poor who lack formal property rights to their land?
- Certificate systems?- Import taxes?- No biomass?
Nuclear energy and nuclear weapons
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS?
• Only those countries that already have enrichment and reprocessing plants should be allowed to have it?
• The entire fuel cycle under multinational control?
• New reactor designs?
POSSIBLE CONCLUSIONS
• Nuclear energy is clearly not the only pathway to nuclear weapons
• But under current frameworks a world wide effort to
expand nuclear energy is hardly attractive
Enrichment Ca 4% U235, 96% U238
ReprocessingFinal disposal
0,7% U235, 99,3% U238
Separation of plutonium
U235 is fissioned, Pu + fission products areproduced
Civilian nuclear fuel cycle
Reactor
Natural Uranium
Enrichment Ca 4% U235, 96% U238
ReprocessingFinal disposal
0,7% U235, 99,3% U238
Separation of plutonium
U235 is fissioned, Pu + fission products areproduced
Links to nuclear weapons
Reactor
Natural Uranium
Nuclear bombs Highly enriched uranium
or plutonium
90% U235
Nuclear weapons a broader perspective• More than 26 000 nuclear weapons, total yield corresponds
to 200 000 hiroshima bombs
• 2000 on hair-trigger alert (15-30 minute notice)
• NPT aims at preventing proliferation. Further, weapons states should strive towards ”complete disarmament” (article VI).
• Can England require that Iran cease with its enrichment program while they at the same time plan to modernise their own weapons capacity?
CO2-concentration and temperature
Nuclear energy and weapons• Technological risks
– Enrichment facility (dual use)– Reprocessing (dual use)– Nuclear reactor produces around 200 kg Pu/year
• International policy and security analysis– Sweden, Finland etc no ambition to get weapons, – USA, China, etc already have– Which countries should have the right to have advanced civilian nuclear
energy programmes? Development of NPT?– Benevolent regimes might become aggressive, and vice versa.
• More nuclear for Sweden and the US build more nuclear?– Which signal do we want to send? – The bigger nuclear industry, the stronger lobbying against other countries
(think of France and Sarkozy)