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8/3/2019 CI Tracking Fall2011
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October 2011
120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
1
October 2010May 2010
Critical Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey
~ Fall 2011~
Focus Groups Surveys Public Opinion Polling
120 Exchange Street, Portland, Maine 04101
Telephone: 207-772-4011 Fax: 207-772-7027
www.criticalinsights.com
Residents Views on Politics, the Economy,
& Issues Facing the State of MaineOctober 2011
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www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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October 2010May 2010
Introduction
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www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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Background & Methodology
Each Spring and Fall, Critical Insights conducts the Critical Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey, a comprehensive, statewide public opinion survey of registeredvoters which covers a variety of topics of interest to business, government, and thegeneral public.
In addition to general interest items (the results of which are released to the media as a publicservice) the survey also includes a number of proprietary items included in the poll on behalf of sponsoring entities, with results of those items released only to those sponsors.
For the current wave of the study, Critical Insights completed a total of 600 telephoneinterviews with randomly selected likely voters across the state between October 18-23, 2011.
With a sample of 600 interviews, results presented here have an associated sampling error of +/- 4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
All interviews were conducted with self-reported registered and likely voters; final data wasstatistically weighted according to relevant demographics to reflect the voter base in Maine.
On average, the entire survey instrument including both general interest items and allsubscriber questions was 17 minutes in administrative length.
This document presents results of general interest questions which Critical Insightsmakes public to the media.
Where appropriate, comparisons of current results are made with findings from past iterationsof the Critical Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey.
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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October 2010May 2010
Issues Facing Maine &
Perceptions of the Economy
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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Perspectives on Issues Facing the State of Maine
While concerns about the economy remain consistent with results observed in thepast several iterations of the Critical Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey,unemployment surpasses economic concerns and emerges as the most importantissue facing Maine at this time, cited by more than 4-in-10 residents.
Specific concerns about unemployment were noted by only 11% of Maine residentstwo years ago, but has since risen steadily to hit an 11-year high of 44% for the Critical
Insights on Maine TM Tracking Survey. As was observed in previous iterations of the survey, despite continuing concerns,
unprompted mentions regarding the economy continue to hover at about half thefrequency noted in the Fall of 2008, when economic concerns reached a high of 59%.
Interestingly, while these concerns tend to be equally prevalent among all resident subgroups,broad concerns about the economy are significantly higher among more affluent Mainers($75,000 or more annually).
Taxation, education, and healthcare round out the top concerns mentioned byMainers, with results for taxation and healthcare concerns dropping when compared tothe previous wave of Critical Insights on Maine TM.
Taxation is an issue particularly with male residents, while those in the Northern region of thestate express more concern than others over education .
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October 2011
120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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Issues Facing the State of Maine
0
20
40
60
80
100
P e r c e n t
Unemployment 7 11 13 15 19 19 24 26 27 25 23 17 17 14 17 17 6 12 27 11 27 30 30 44Economy 8 9 14 22 13 17 21 15 12 14 17 16 12 16 13 16 36 59 35 31 33 33 31 35
Taxes 12 9 10 7 15 16 15 14 26 25 21 21 20 34 24 18 10 8 7 10 9 8 5 4
Health care 9 9 12 4 11 16 12 13 10 13 7 12 9 12 14 15 5 7 7 17 7 5 7 3
Education 27 16 15 5 8 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 5 5 7 9 2 1 3 3 7 6 3 4
Spr'00
Fall'00
Spr'01
Fall'01
Spr'02
Fall'02
Spr'03
Fall'03
Spr'04
Fall'04
Spr'05
Fall'05
Spr'06
Fall'06
Spr'07
Fall'07
Spr'08
Fall'08
Spr'09
Fall'09
Spr'10
Fall'10
Spr'11
Fall'11
In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing Maine today? *
* Top responses shown.
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October 2011
120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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Perspectives on Near-Term Economic Concerns
When voters were asked to cite the specific economic concern that will becausing them the most worry over the next six months, the issue of job loss(mentioned by fully one-quarter of residents) rose to the top spot again as it had in
the Fall 2010 wave of Critical Insights on MaineTM
not surprisingly givencurrent concerns about unemployment as an overall issue facing Maine. Other chief financial concerns in the near term include the overall cost of living (18%)
remaining relatively stable with results observed in other recent waves of the survey and concerns about gas and utility prices (16%).
These results are a departure from what was observed in the Spring 11 survey, when ina bit of a reversal, concern over gas prices was 32% and concern over job loss was 17%. While results tend to be evenly distributed among resident subgroups, the issue of gas
and utility costs is of particular concern to less affluent residents and those who reside inNorthern Maine.
Similarly, when residents were asked specifically to note their level of concernover the next 12 months that they or someone else in the household might be outof work, nearly 3-in-10 claimed to be concerned.
Concern was most acute among Mainers with a lower socio-economic status.
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October 2011
120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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As you think about the next 6 months what economic or financial situations concern you the MOST?
15
7
5
11
12
12
20
32
4
5
5
10
7
32
19
17
5
6
8
9
13
16
18
25
0 20 40 60 80 100
Taxes
Education
Gov't spending/Debt
Health care
Economy
Price of gas/utilities
Cost of living
Job loss
Percent
Fall '11Spring '11Fall '10
Near-Term Economic Concerns
* Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job?
Concern Over Job Loss
53
59
52
16
15
19
31
26
29
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fall '10
Spr '11
Fall '11
Less concerned Neutral/Unsure Concerned
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
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Maine Residents Views on the Economy
In a noticeably negative shift from recent waves of Critical Insights on Maine TM ,only one-tenth of residents feel that the economy is doing better than it was 12months ago (down from 27% in the Spring 2011 survey), while 47% feel it isdoing worse (up from 35% in Spring 11).
The proportion of poll respondents saying the economy is about the same as it was ayear ago is comparable to results from recent waves of the survey.
Looking ahead to the coming year, nearly one-third of Mainers (30%) anticipatethings will improve comparable to results from the most recent surveys.
The proportion of residents expecting things to be worse in 12 months is almostidentical to Spring 11 results, showing a minor uptick since the Fall 2010 survey.
Pessimism about both the current and future state of the economy is highest amongresidents 45 years of age or older.
Residents overall sense of economic pessimism is also reflected in theirestimates of the timing for economic recovery, with fully two-thirds (67%) notingthat they believe the recession will last at least another two years.
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
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Current State of the Economy
0
20
40
60
80
100
P e r c e n t
Better 39 39 11 7 17 10 6 16 20 20 10 7 13 17 9 6 1 1 10 27 31 21 27 10
About the same 45 48 39 26 38 32 28 35 31 36 39 23 34 40 42 33 8 7 18 31 36 40 38 41
Worse 15 13 49 67 44 56 66 47 49 43 50 70 52 41 47 61 91 92 71 41 32 38 35 47
Spr'00
Fall'00
Spr'01
Fall'01
Spr'02
Fall'02
Spr'03
Fall'03
Spr'04
Fall'04
Spr'05
Fall'05
Spr'06
Fall'06
Spr'07
Fall'07
Spr'08
Fall'08
Spr'09
Fall'09
Spr'10
Fall'10
Spr'11
Fall'11
Compared with 12 months ago , how would you describe the overall status of theeconomy? Would you say it is
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
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Future State of the Economy
0
20
40
60
80
100
P e r c e n t
Better 24 20 23 33 47 34 36 33 29 30 14 12 17 18 16 12 15 35 46 43 43 35 34 30
About the same 50 55 38 24 36 38 36 38 37 41 33 33 35 44 46 35 26 26 27 34 33 38 36 41
Worse 23 17 37 41 14 26 25 27 31 25 51 53 44 31 37 49 55 33 24 20 19 20 24 25
Spr'00
Fall'00
Spr'01
Fall'01
Spr'02
Fall'02
Spr'03
Fall'03
Spr'04
Fall'04
Spr'05
Fall'05
Spr'06
Fall'06
Spr'07
Fall'07
Spr'08
Fall'08
Spr'09
Fall'09
Spr'10
Fall'10
Spr'11
Fall'11
Now think about the future of the economy. In the next 12 months, do you think theeconomy will be . . .
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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How much longer do you think the current recession will last: Six months, 1 year, 2 years or More than 2 years?
Length of the Recession
5
3
40
26
23
3
7
2
42
23
21
5
7
3
44
23
18
6
0 20 40 60 80 100
DK/Refused
It's over
More than 2 years
2 years
1 year
Six months
Percent
Fall '11Spring '11Fall '10
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Maine ResidentsPersonal Household Financial Situation
Despite the economic downturn and employment concerns, Maine residents abilityto save a key indicator of personal and household financial health has remainedrelatively stable over the past two years and is nearly identical to Spring 11 results.
Only a small bloc of residents (12%) are saving more than they did last year, and theproportion of residents saving less hovers at 45%. Among different income brackets, lower-income households are finding it harder to save
than middle- and upper-income households; indeed, more than half (51%) of householdsmaking under $50k say they are saving less than they did last year.
Like personal savings, results for anticipated levels of holiday spending have alsoremained stable over time. Nearly half of residents polled (49%) suggest that their holiday spending this year will be
less than in 10; this is particularly true among lower- and middle-income residents. A comparable proportion of Mainers (45%) say they will be spending about the same
amount as last year, especially higher-income residents. Notably, very few residents claim that they will be spending more than last year during theupcoming holiday season (4%).
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Household Financial Situation: Personal Savings
0
20
40
60
80
100
P e r c e n t
More 21 20 26 19 21 17 23 14 17 15 15 15 12 9 11 12 9 7 8 12 13 16 15 12 12
About the same 44 45 42 46 40 45 42 41 43 41 37 36 38 35 35 35 38 32 35 41 42 39 42 41 42
Less 35 35 31 35 39 38 35 45 40 44 48 48 49 56 54 52 51 60 56 45 44 42 42 45 45
Spr'99
Fall'99
Spr'00
Fall'00
Spr'01
Fall'01
Spr'02
Fall'02
Spr'03
Fall'03
Spr'04
Fall'04
Spr'05
Fall'05
Spr'06
Spr'07
Fall'07
Spr'08
Fall'08
Spr'09
Fall'09
Spr'10
Fall'10
Spr'11
Fall'11
Compared to last year, would you say your household is putting more into personal savings, about the same amount, or saving less?
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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Intended Holiday Spending
Thinking about the upcoming holiday season, are you planning to spend MORE than you did last year on holiday gifts, will you spend about the SAME as you did last year, or will you spend LESS than you did last year?
3
4
49
45
48
49
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fall '10
Fall '11
More Same Less
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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October 2010May 2010
Observations on
National and State Politics
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Maine Residents Perspectiveson the Direction of the Nation Pessimism concerning the nations overall direction has intensified over the past six
months, both among Maine residents and the country as a whole. Indeed, only 19% of Maine residents and 17% of U.S. residents say the country is headed
in the right direction; by comparison, 66% of Mainers and 74% of U.S. residents say the
country is on the wrong track. Democrats and the youngest residents have the most positive outlook, while Republicans,Independents, and Mainers age 35 or older tend to be more pessimistic regarding thenations direction.
Maine residents are more optimistic about the direction of the state than they are thenation as whole, with fully 4-in-10 stating that the state is headed in the rightdirection (up 17 percentage points since last spring).
An equal proportion of residents (40%) feel that the state is heading in the wrong direction. Almost half of Mainers who state that Maine is going in the right direction attribute their
views to the job the Governor is doing. Among those who feel that that stat is headed in the wrong direction, 37% attribute their
views to the Governor and 31% to the bad economy and lack of jobs. It is interesting to note that while Democrats are more likely to feel that the nation is
heading in the right direction, Republicans are more likely to suggest that the state isheading in the right direction.
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
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Direction of the Nation: Maine vs. U.S.
45
59
44 47
33 37 3225
45
3017 19
40
3554
4259 47 59
60
52
45 74 66
156 2 11 8 16
915
3
25
915
0
20
40
60
80
100
US Spring
'09*****
Maine
ResidentsSpring '09
US Fall
'09****
Maine
ResidentsFall '09
US Spring
'10***
Maine
ResidentsSpring '10
US Fall
'10**
Maine
ResidentsFall '10
US Spring
'11*
Maine
ResidentsSpring '11
US Fall '11
^
Maine
ResidentsFall '11
Right Direction Wrong track Unsure
All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?
^ Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, Oct. 6-10, 2011*Source: AP-GfK Poll. May 5-9, 2011**Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll. Oct. 14-18, 2010***Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, March 11, 13-14, 2010****Source: Washington Post/ABC News poll, Oct. 15-18, 2009
*****Source: CBS News poll, May 6-12. 2009
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
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Why do you say that?
6
9
13
19
24
30
0 20 40 60 80 100
Rich getting richer / Middle class
shrinking
Too much devoted tothings outside country
/ Wars
Quality of life notimproving
President / Politiciansnot doing the right
things
Congressdysfunctional /
Disunity / No focus
Bad economy / Lack of jobs
Percent
Reasons for Nation Heading inRight/Wrong Direction
* Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.
Wrong Track(n=398)
10
20
24
34
0 20 40 60 80 100
Foreign Affairs goingwell
Economy improving
Feels optimistic
President / Politicians
trying to changethings
Percent
Right Direction(n=111)
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October 2011
120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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Direction of the State of Maine
All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?
3430 30 23 23
40
59
52 49 62
45
40
717 21
15
3119
0
20
40
60
80
100
Spring '09 Fall '09 Spring '10 Fall '10 Spring '11 Fall '11
Right Direction Wrong track Mixed/Don't know
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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Why do you say that?
5
7
8
9
31
37
0 20 40 60 80 100
Disunity / No focus
Quality of educationdiminishing
Quality of life notimproving
Regulation / Taxes
Bad economy / Lack of jobs
Disagree withGovernor
Percent
Reasons for State Heading inRight/Wrong Direction
* Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.
Wrong Track(n=237)
11
15
19
48
0 20 40 60 80 100
Feels optimistic
Economy improving
More jobs becomingavailable
Government /
Governor gettingthings to work
Percent
Right Direction(n=243)
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October 2011
120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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Maine Residents Views on President Obama
President Obamas favorability ratings among Maine residents is the lowest it hasbeen during his Presidency (43%).
Maine residents favorability toward the President is markedly lower than the nationalresults (54%).
About 7-in-10 Democrats (71%) have a favorable view of the president, compared to three-quarters of Republicans (76%) who have an unfavorable view.
Only 36% of Maine residents have a positive view of how the President is handlingthe economy and more than half (54%) disapprove, similar to national results.
Also on par with the country as a whole, half of Mainers polled do not approve of how the President is handling taxes.
Again, approval of the Presidents performance is closely tied to political party affiliation.
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October 2011
120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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Presidential Favorability Ratings: Maine vs. U.S.
66 61 56 56 55 47 53 52 54 43
2925 37 29
4139
4233
4445
514 7 15
412
515
211
0
20
40
60
80
100
USSpring
'09****
MaineResidentsSpring '09
US Fall'09***
MaineResidents
Fall '09
USSpring'10**
MaineResidentsSpring '10
USSpring'11*
MaineResidentsSpring '11
US Fall'11 ^
MaineResidents
Fall '11
Favorable Unfavorable Don't know/refused
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Barack Obama?
^ Source: ABC-GfK poll, Oct. 13-17, 2011
*Source: Daily Kos poll, April 28-May 1, 2011
** Source: Daily Kos poll, May 3-6, 2010
*** Source: Daily Kos poll, Oct. 19-22, 2009
**** Source: Daily Kos poll, May 18-21, 2009
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October 2011
120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
2 6
43
46
37
43
35
36
46
43
58
44
61
54
11
10
5
13
4
10
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
US Spring '10**
Maine Residents Spring '10
US Spring '11*
Maine Residents Spring '11
US Fall '11 ^
Maine Residents Fall '11
Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused
Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling theeconomy?
Assessment of Presidential Job Performance: Economy
^ Source: ABC News/Washington Post poll, Sept. 29-Oct. 2, 2011
* Source: NBC News poll, May 5-7, 2011
** Source: CBS News/New York Times poll, April 5-12, 2010
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October 2011
120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
2 7
42
39
51
49
7
12
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
US Fall '11 *
Maine Residents Fall '11
Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused
Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Barack Obama is handling the taxes?
*Source: ABC News/Washington News poll, Sept. 29-Oct. 2, 2011
Assessment of Presidential Job Performance:Taxes
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October 2011
120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
2 8
Views Toward Israel/Palestinians
Do you favor or oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip?
* Source: CNN/ORC poll, Sept. 23-25, 2011
40
35
41
25
19
39
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
US Fall '11 *
Maine Residents Fall'11
Favor Oppose Don't know/Refused
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October 2011
120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
2 9
Approval Ratings for Governor Paul LePage
Nine months into his tenure as Governor, 47% of Mainers express approval for the job Governor LePage is doing as Governor up 16 percentage points from theSpring 2011 Critical Insights on Maine TM survey fully 4-in-10 disapprove of the
job the Governor is doing. While 71% of Republicans approve of Governor LePages job performance, 62% of
Democrats disapprove. Independents views of the Governor are mixed. Men, less highly educated Mainers, and the youngest residents polled are more likely
than other subgroups to approve of the job the Governor is doing.
Conversely, women, college graduates, and residents who are 35 years of age or older aremore likely to disapprove of the Governors job performance.
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
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Stated Voter Political Affiliation
In what political party are you registered to vote? Percent of Sample
Democrat 33%Republican 31
Independent 31
Dont know/Refused 4
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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Party That Best Serves Interests
38
39
37
33
31
35
21
22
20
5
4
3
3
4
5
0 20 40 60 80 100
Spring '10
Spring '11
Fall '11
Democrats Republicans Neither Both Don't know/Refused
Which of the following two political parties Democrat or Republican do you feel best serves your interests?
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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Stated Voter Plans for November 8 th
Vote in person86%
Earlyvoting/absentee11%
Don't
know/Refused3%
Do you think youll vote in person at your polling place on Election Day, or vote before Election Day by early voting or mail-in/absentee ballot?
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Presidential Race
Consistent with Presidential approval ratings noted previously in this report, morethan 4-in-10 Mainers say they would vote for Barack Obama over Republicancandidates Mitt Romney or Rick Perry if the 2012 election were held today.
Results for President Obama are nearly identical to national results, but Mainers tend tobe more indecisive than the country as a whole rather than claiming they would vote foreither Romney or Perry.
Older and more highly educated Mainers are significantly more likely than others to saythey would vote for President Obama.
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www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
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November 8 th Referendum Questions
Overall, just over half of Maine voters polled (51%) report that they intend to voteYes on Question 1, that would repeal the requirement that new voters register atleast two business days prior to an election.
Support for this ballot question is highest among college-educated residents andDemocrats.
Of the remaining voters, 43% state that they intend to vote No and 6% areundecided.
Results are mixed on Question 4 which would amend the Constitution of Maine tochange the years of redistricting the Maine Legislature, congressional districts, andcounty commissioner districts.
Indeed, 32% of voters say they intend to vote Yes, 33% would vote No, and 34% areundecided.
Support for this ballot question is highest among men and Mainers with a higher socio-economic status.
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Stated Voter Intentions on Question 1
Do you want to reject the section of Chapter 399 of the Public Laws of 2011 that requires newvoters to register to vote at least two business days prior to an election? If you were voting today,
please tell me how you vote: Yes or No.
Yes51%No
43%
Don't know6%
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Stated Voter Intentions on Question 4
Do you favor amending the Constitution of Maine to change the years of redistricting the Maine Legislature, congressional districts and county commissioner districts after 2013 from 2023 and every 10 th year thereafter to 2021 and every 10 th year thereafter? If you were voting today, please tell me how you vote: Yes or No.
Yes32%
No33%
Don'tknow/Refused
35%
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120 Exchange StreetPortland Maine
www.criticalinsights.comOctober 2011
4 1
October 2010
4 1
May 2010
Sample Profile
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Respondent Gender and Age
Male47% Female
53%
Into which of the following categories does your age fall? Percent of Sample
18 to 34 13%
35 to 44 29
45 to 54 21
55 to 64 20
65 to 74 11
75 and older 6
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Tenure of Residency in Maine
How many years have you lived in the State of Maine? Percent of Sample
Less than 5 years 2%
5 to 10 years 8
More than 10 years 88
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Socio-Economic Dimensions:Education and IncomeWhat is the highest level of education you have completed? Percent of SampleSome high school or less 4%Graduated high school 23Technical/Vocational/Community College 4
Some college 20Graduated college 34Graduate school 14
Which of the following categories best describes your total household income before taxes last year? Percent of Sample
Less than $15,000 5%
$15,000 to $24,999 6
$25,000 to $34,999 9
$35,000 to $49,999 13$50,000 to $74,999 22
$75,000 or more 29
Dont know/Refused 16