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ENHANCING RETURNS THROUGH ACTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT 12 - 13 September 2013 Peter Fitzgerald – Head of Multi-asset Retail This document is for financial advisers only. It is not to be viewed by or used with retail clients.
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Page 1: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

ENHANCING RETURNS THROUGH ACTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT

12 - 13 September 2013Peter Fitzgerald – Head of Multi-asset Retail

This document is for financial advisers only. It is not to be viewed by or used with retail clients.

Page 2: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

TEAM AND FUNDS

2

Page 3: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

MULTI-ASSET RETAIL TEAM£28BN* AUM

Peter FitzgeraldHead of MAF Retail, CFA

Multi-AssetFunds

Multi-Manager

Strategic AssetAllocation

Multi-Asset Implementation

Multi-AssetInvestment Risk

Cyclical Asset Allocation

UK Equities

Emerging Market Debt

European Sovereigns

Currencies

Investment Grade Credit

SRI Equity

Global Convertible Bonds

Hedge Funds

High Yield Equity

High Yield Credit

REITs

Irish Equities

Asia Pacific Equities

CommoditiesCash Funds

UK PropertyEuropean Equity

Global Equity

Emerging Market Equities

Inflation Linkers

Using specialists to manage global portfolios with global resources3

Gavin CounsellFund Manager, FIA

Nick SamouilhanFund Manager, PhD CFA FRM

External PassiveExternal Active

Andrew RidgersSenior Product Specialist

Andrzej PiochFund Manager

*Source: Aviva Investors as at 31 July 2013

Page 4: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

MISSION PORTFOLIOSNUMBER OF FUNDS

Risk Targeted Return Targeted

5 3

4

Page 5: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

INVESTMENT THEMES

5

Page 6: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

ARE WE COMING OUT OF THE EQUITY BEAR MARKET?

6

(S0202)

Daily Data 3/31/1900 - 8/28/2013 (Log Scale)

Secular Bull Markets

DJIA Nominal Annualized Gain (GPA)

Dates GPA

3/31/1900 - 1/19/1906 8. 0

8/24/1921 - 9/3/1929 24. 9

4/28/1942 - 2/9/1966 10. 5

8/12/1982 - 1/14/2000 16. 8

Secular Bear Markets

DJIA Nominal Annualized Gain (GPA)

Dates GPA

1/19/1906 - 8/24/1921 -1. 1

9/3/1929 - 4/28/1942 -10. 6

2/9/1966 - 8/12/1982 -1. 5

1/14/2000 - 8/28/2013? 1. 7

Shaded Areas Indicate Secular Bear Markets

8/28/2013 = 14824.51

Source: IDC 25

36

52

75

108

156

226

326

472

682

986

1425

2060

2977

4304

6222

8994

13002

25

36

52

75

108

156

226

326

472

682

986

1425

2060

2977

4304

6222

8994

13002

Secular Bull Markets

DJIA Real Annualized Gain (GPA)

Dates GPA

3/31/1900 - 1/19/1906 6. 5

8/24/1921 - 9/3/1929 26. 1

4/28/1942 - 2/9/1966 7. 3

8/12/1982 - 1/14/2000 13. 2

Secular Bear Markets

DJIA Real Annualized Gain (GPA)

Dates GPA

1/19/1906 - 8/24/1921 -5. 4

9/3/1929 - 4/28/1942 -10. 1

2/9/1966 - 8/12/1982 -7. 9

1/14/2000 - 8/28/2013? -0. 7

DJIA Adjusted Using Quarterly Consumer Price Index

8/28/2013 = 548.92

28

34

41

49

58

70

84

100

120

144

172

207

247

297

355

426

510

612

733

28

34

41

49

58

70

84

100

120

144

172

207

247

297

355

426

510

612

733

19

05

19

10

19

15

19

20

19

25

19

30

19

35

19

40

19

45

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. Secular Trends

Inflation-Adjusted Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. Secular Trends Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved.

. www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future

Page 7: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

US EQUITIES VS US GOVERNMENT BONDS

7

Monthly Data 12/31/1926 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale)

7/31/2013 = 18.5

Ratio:S&P 500 Total Return Index /

Barclays Long-Term Treasury Bond Total Return Index*

*Ibbotson data prior to 1973. 0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.8

1.1

1.4

1.9

2.5

3.3

4.3

5.7

7.6

10.0

13.1

17.3

22.9

30.2

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.8

1.1

1.4

1.9

2.5

3.3

4.3

5.7

7.6

10.0

13.1

17.3

22.9

30.2

Stock/Bond Relative Performance

(AA032)

-3.0 Std Dev

19

30

19

35

19

40

19

45

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserv. www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future

Page 8: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES VS EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES

8

Daily Data 2/13/1992 - 8/27/2013 (Log Scale)

8/27/2013 = 93.5

Dow Jones World Ratio Dev. Emg. %

30-Day Percent Change: GPA GPA GPA of Time

Above 3% 24. 0 13. 7 41. 0 33. 2

Between -1% and 3% 7.2 7.0 14. 7 35. 1

* -1% and Below -28.2 -5. 1 -31.8 31. 7

Buy/Hold -0. 9 5.1 4.2 100.0

Source: Dow Jones Indexes 42

45

49

53

57

62

67

73

79

85

92

99

107

116

126

136

147

159

42

45

49

53

57

62

67

73

79

85

92

99

107

116

126

136

147

159

19

97

20

02

20

07

20

12

Dow Jones Emerging Markets Index / Dow Jones Developed Markets Index

(AVIV200)

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future

Page 9: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

US EQUITIES

9

Monthly Data 12/31/1974 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale)

MSCI U.S. Index / MSCI World ex. U.S. Index

(in U.S. Dollars)

7/31/2013 = 92.8

Source: MSCI28

35

43

53

66

82

102

126

28

35

43

53

66

82

102

126

M

+1

+2

-1-2

-3

Dashed L

ines =

Std

Dev

Scale

= %

Poin

ts

U.S. Earnings Yield Minus World ex. U.S. Earnings Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean

7/31/2013 = -1.11

High Reading = Market Inexpensive

Low Reading = Market Expensive

-4

-2

0

2

4

-4

-2

0

2

4

M

+1

-1-2

Dashed L

ines =

Std

Dev

Scale

= %

Poin

ts

U.S. Dividend Yield Minus World ex. U.S. Dividend Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean

7/31/2013 = -1.25 -2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

U.S. Book Value Yield Minus World ex. U.S. Book Value Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean

U.S. / World ex. U.S. Relative Valuation Metrics

(AVIV200)

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future

Page 10: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

EUROPEAN EQUITIES

10

Monthly Data 12/31/1974 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale)

Austria Italy

Belgium Netherlands

Denmark Norway

Finland Portugal

France Spain

Germany Sweden

Greece Switzerland

Ireland

MSCI Europe ex. U.K. Index / MSCI World ex. U.K. Index

(in U.S. Dollars)

7/31/2013 = 114.0

Source: MSCI69

79

91

104

119

136

156

179

69

79

91

104

119

136

156

179

M

+1

+2

-1-2

-3

Da

sh

ed

Lin

es =

Std

De

v

Sca

le =

% P

oin

ts

Europe ex. U.K. Earnings Yield Minus World ex. U.K. Earnings Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean

7/31/2013 = -0.53

High Reading = Market Inexpensive

Low Reading = Market Expensive

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

M

+1

+2

+3

-1Da

sh

ed

Lin

es =

Std

De

v

Sca

le =

% P

oin

ts

Europe ex. U.K. Dividend Yield Minus World ex. U.K. Dividend Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean

7/31/2013 = 0.21

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

Europe ex. U.K. Book Value Yield Minus World ex. U.K. Book Value Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean

Europe ex. U.K. / World ex. U.K. Relative Valuation Metrics

(AVIV2010)

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future

Page 11: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

LATIN AMERICAN EQUITIES

11

Monthly Data 9/30/1995 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale)

Emerging Markets Latin America Constituents:

Brazil Mexico

Chine Peru

Colombia

MSCI Emerging Mkts Latin America Index / MSCI World Index

(in U.S. Dollars)

7/31/2013 = 209.0

Source: MSCI52

64

79

98

122

151

188

233

289

359

445

552

52

64

79

98

122

151

188

233

289

359

445

552

M

+1

+2

+3

+4

-1

Da

sh

ed

Lin

es =

Std

De

v

Sca

le =

% P

oin

ts

Emerging Mkts Latin America Earnings Yield Minus World Earnings Yield Relative to 17.9-Year Mean

7/31/2013 = -1.74

High Reading = Market Inexpensive

Low Reading = Market Expensive

-2

0

2

4

6

-2

0

2

4

6

M

+1

+2

+3

-1-2

Da

sh

ed

Lin

es =

Std

De

v

Sca

le =

% P

oin

ts

Emerging Mkts Latin America Dividend Yield Minus World Dividend Yield Relative to 17.9-Year Mean

7/31/2013 = 0.10

-1

0

1

2

3

-1

0

1

2

3

Emerging Mkts Latin America / World Relative Valuation Metrics

(AVIV16000)

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future

Page 12: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

EMERGING EUROPEAN EQUITIES

12

Monthly Data 8/31/1996 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale)

Emerging Markets Eastern Europe Country Constituents:

Czech Republic Poland

Hungary Russia

MSCI Emerging Mkts Eastern Europe Index / MSCI World Index

(in U.S. Dollars)

7/31/2013 = 12.2

Source: MSCI3

5

7

10

13

19

27

38

3

5

7

10

13

19

27

38

M

+1

+2

+3

-1

Dash

ed L

ines

= S

td D

ev

Sca

le =

% P

oin

ts

Emerging Mkts Eastern Europe Earnings Yield Minus World Earnings Yield Relative to 17.0-Year Mean

7/31/2013 = 6.56

High Reading = Market Inexpensive

Low Reading = Market Expensive

-4

0

4

8

12

16

-4

0

4

8

12

16

M

+1

+2

+3

-1

Dash

ed L

ines

= S

td D

ev

Sca

le =

% P

oin

ts

Emerging Mkts Eastern Europe Dividend Yield Minus World Dividend Yield Relative to 16.9-Year Mean

7/31/2013 = 1.77

0

1

2

0

1

2

Emerging Mkts Eastern Europe / World Relative Valuation Metrics

(AVIV20000)

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future

Page 13: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

EMERGING ASIA EQUITIES

13

Monthly Data 9/30/1995 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale)

Emerging Markets Asia Country Constituents:

China Korea Philippines

India Malaysia Taiwan

Indonesia Pakistan Thailand

MSCI Emerging Mkts Asia Index / MSCI World Index

(in U.S. Dollars)

7/31/2013 = 27.6

Source: MSCI11

15

19

24

30

39

50

63

11

15

19

24

30

39

50

63

M

+1

-1-2

-3

Dashed L

ines =

Std

Dev

Scale

= %

Poin

ts

Emerging Mkts Asia Earnings Yield Minus World Earnings Yield Relative to 17.9-Year Mean

7/31/2013 = 1.49

High Reading = Market Inexpensive

Low Reading = Market Expensive

-4

-2

0

2

-4

-2

0

2

M

+1

+2

-1Dashed L

ines =

Std

Dev

Scale

= %

Poin

ts

Emerging Mkts Asia Dividend Yield Minus World Dividend Yield Relative to 17.9-Year Mean

7/31/2013 = 0.01

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

Emerging Mkts Asia / World Relative Valuation Metrics

(AVIV21000)

7/31/2013 = 1.72

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future

Page 14: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

US INVESTMENT GRADE BONDS

14

Daily Data 1/03/2000 - 8/27/2013 (Log Scale)

BarclaysU.S. Corporate Credit

( )

10-Year Treasury Note Yield 8/27/2013 = 2.72%

( ) 1.6

1.8

2.0

2.3

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.9

4.4

5.0

5.7

6.5

7.5

8.5

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.3

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.9

4.4

5.0

5.7

6.5

7.5

8.5

Mean = 135

In Basis Points Investment Grade Spread (U.S. Corporate Credit minus 10-Year Treasurys)

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Investment Grade Corporate Spreads

(B333A)

104 104

2000M J S D

2001M J S D

2002M J S D

2003M J S D

2004M J S D

2005M J S D

2006M J S D

2007M J S D

2008M J S D

2009M J S D

2010M J S D

2011M J S D

2012M J S D

2013M J

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Res. www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future

Page 15: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

US HIGH YIELD BONDS

15

Daily Data 1/03/2000 - 8/27/2013 (Log Scale)

Barclays High Yield Corporate Bond Yield

( )

10-Year Treasury Note Yield 8/27/2013 = 2.72%

( ) Source: Federal Reserve Board

1

2

3

4

5

7

10

14

20

1

2

3

4

5

7

10

14

20

Mean = 578

In Basis Points High Yield Spread (High Yield minus 10-Year Treasurys)

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

High Yield Corporate Spreads

(B334A)

135 135

2000M J S D

2001M J S D

2002M J S D

2003M J S D

2004M J S D

2005M J S D

2006M J S D

2007M J S D

2008M J S D

2009M J S D

2010M J S D

2011M J S D

2012M J S D

2013M J

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Re. www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future

Page 16: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

DEBT WORRY

16

Quarterly Data 12/31/1922 - 3/31/2013 (Log Scale)

(E501A)

386.27

3/31/2013 Debt = $57.045 Trillion3/31/2013 GDP = $16.005 Trillion

= 356.4%

Annual interpolated GDP (including estimates prior to 1929) used prior to 1946.

Domestic Nonfinancial Debt used prior to 1951. As of December, 1951

Domestic Nonfinancial Debt represented 98.5% of Total Credit Market Debt. Source: Department of Commerce130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335 340 345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385

130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335 340 345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385

1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Total Credit Market Debt as a % of GDP

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future

Page 17: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

MISSION PORTFOLIOS

17

Aviva Investors Multi-asset Fund III Aviva Investors Multi-Manager 40-85% Shares Fund

TOP FIVE HOLDINGS % NAV

AXA FRAMLINGTON UK SELECT OPP 10.1

INVESTEC SPECIAL SITUATIONS MANDATE 10.0

ARTEMIS INCOME FUND 9.1

ODEY EUROPEAN INCOME 6.0

HERMES US SMID EQUITY 5.8

TOP FIVE HOLDINGS % NAV

BLACKROCK NORTH AMER EQ TRACKER 31.1

BLACKROCK CONT EUROPE EQ TRACKER 10.2

RIVER ROAD US EQTY INCOME 7.9

BLACKROCK EMER MKTS EQ TRACKER 6.1

BLACKROCK JAPAN EQUITY TRACKER 6.1

Source: Aviva Investors as at 29 August 2013 – No part of this document is intended to constitute advice or recommendations of any nature. Past performance is not a guide to the future.

Equity 80%

Fixed Income9%

AlternativeAssets 5%

Cash 6%

Equity 76%

Fixed Income10%

AlternativeAssets 11%

Cash 3%

Page 18: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

MISSION PORTFOLIOS

Funds

1 year

performance

%

3 year

performance

%

1 year

standard

deviation

1 year

Sharpe Ratio

Ongoing

Charge

Figure

%

Aviva Investors

Multi-asset Fund III

SC4*

13.86 - 8.13 1.58 1.13

Aviva Investors Multi-

Manager

40-85% Shares Fund

SC2

18.52 9.83** 8.88 1.51 1.62

18

Source: Morningstar as at 29/8/13 net of fees, Aviva Investors Multi-asset Fund III is share class 4 and Aviva Investors Multi-Manager 40-85% Shares Fund is Share Class 2 (bought via platform). Past performance is not a guide to the future.

• Launched on the 6 February 2012** Since fund manager inception 1 August 2011

Page 19: Ci062755   citywire event brighton final approved

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

CI062755 09/2013 19

This document is intended for financial advisers only. It is not to be viewed by or used with retail clients..

Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors as at 31 August 2013

Any future returns and opinions expressed are based on the internal forecasts of Aviva Investors and should not be relied upon as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors. No part of this document is intended to constitute advice or recommendations of any nature. Past performance is not a guide to the future.

The value of assets are subject to market fluctuations and can move irrationally and be unpredictably affected by many and various factors including political and economic events and rumours and as such the value of investments may go down as well as up and your clients may receive less than the original amount invested. There can be no assurance that these Funds will meet their investment objectives or that they will stay within their target volatility ranges.

As the Funds will be subject to short-term market fluctuations and they aim, on average, to reflect investor risk profiles, over any three year period, they should be viewed as medium to long-term investments.

As these Funds may invest outside of the UK in assets denominated in currencies other than sterling, any currency exchange rate movement may cause the value of an investment to fall as well as rise.

For further information please read the latest Key Investor Information Document and Supplementary Information Document. The full Prospectus and the annual and interim reports are also available on request. Copies can be obtained, in English, from Aviva Investors UK Fund Services Limited, No. 1 Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ or by contacting our Relationship Management Team – Aviva Investors UK Fund Sales on 0800 015 4773 or email them on fund&[email protected].

Investment in the Mission Portfolios range of funds is provided by Aviva Investors UK Fund Services Limited, the Authorised Fund Manager.

Throughout the document Aviva Investors refers to Aviva Global Services Limited, the Investment Manager. The Investment Manager manages the funds(s) on a daily basis making and implementing all portfolio decisions.

Issued by Aviva Investors UK Fund Services Limited, the Authorised Fund Manager. Registered in England No. 1973412. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Firm Reference No. 119310. Registered address: No 1. Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ. An Aviva company. www.avivainvestors.co.uk


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