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ENHANCING RETURNS THROUGH ACTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT
12 - 13 September 2013Peter Fitzgerald – Head of Multi-asset Retail
This document is for financial advisers only. It is not to be viewed by or used with retail clients.
TEAM AND FUNDS
2
MULTI-ASSET RETAIL TEAM£28BN* AUM
Peter FitzgeraldHead of MAF Retail, CFA
Multi-AssetFunds
Multi-Manager
Strategic AssetAllocation
Multi-Asset Implementation
Multi-AssetInvestment Risk
Cyclical Asset Allocation
UK Equities
Emerging Market Debt
European Sovereigns
Currencies
Investment Grade Credit
SRI Equity
Global Convertible Bonds
Hedge Funds
High Yield Equity
High Yield Credit
REITs
Irish Equities
Asia Pacific Equities
CommoditiesCash Funds
UK PropertyEuropean Equity
Global Equity
Emerging Market Equities
Inflation Linkers
Using specialists to manage global portfolios with global resources3
Gavin CounsellFund Manager, FIA
Nick SamouilhanFund Manager, PhD CFA FRM
External PassiveExternal Active
Andrew RidgersSenior Product Specialist
Andrzej PiochFund Manager
*Source: Aviva Investors as at 31 July 2013
MISSION PORTFOLIOSNUMBER OF FUNDS
Risk Targeted Return Targeted
5 3
4
INVESTMENT THEMES
5
ARE WE COMING OUT OF THE EQUITY BEAR MARKET?
6
(S0202)
Daily Data 3/31/1900 - 8/28/2013 (Log Scale)
Secular Bull Markets
DJIA Nominal Annualized Gain (GPA)
Dates GPA
3/31/1900 - 1/19/1906 8. 0
8/24/1921 - 9/3/1929 24. 9
4/28/1942 - 2/9/1966 10. 5
8/12/1982 - 1/14/2000 16. 8
Secular Bear Markets
DJIA Nominal Annualized Gain (GPA)
Dates GPA
1/19/1906 - 8/24/1921 -1. 1
9/3/1929 - 4/28/1942 -10. 6
2/9/1966 - 8/12/1982 -1. 5
1/14/2000 - 8/28/2013? 1. 7
Shaded Areas Indicate Secular Bear Markets
8/28/2013 = 14824.51
Source: IDC 25
36
52
75
108
156
226
326
472
682
986
1425
2060
2977
4304
6222
8994
13002
25
36
52
75
108
156
226
326
472
682
986
1425
2060
2977
4304
6222
8994
13002
Secular Bull Markets
DJIA Real Annualized Gain (GPA)
Dates GPA
3/31/1900 - 1/19/1906 6. 5
8/24/1921 - 9/3/1929 26. 1
4/28/1942 - 2/9/1966 7. 3
8/12/1982 - 1/14/2000 13. 2
Secular Bear Markets
DJIA Real Annualized Gain (GPA)
Dates GPA
1/19/1906 - 8/24/1921 -5. 4
9/3/1929 - 4/28/1942 -10. 1
2/9/1966 - 8/12/1982 -7. 9
1/14/2000 - 8/28/2013? -0. 7
DJIA Adjusted Using Quarterly Consumer Price Index
8/28/2013 = 548.92
28
34
41
49
58
70
84
100
120
144
172
207
247
297
355
426
510
612
733
28
34
41
49
58
70
84
100
120
144
172
207
247
297
355
426
510
612
733
19
05
19
10
19
15
19
20
19
25
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. Secular Trends
Inflation-Adjusted Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. Secular Trends Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved.
. www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at
Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
US EQUITIES VS US GOVERNMENT BONDS
7
Monthly Data 12/31/1926 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale)
7/31/2013 = 18.5
Ratio:S&P 500 Total Return Index /
Barclays Long-Term Treasury Bond Total Return Index*
*Ibbotson data prior to 1973. 0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.4
1.9
2.5
3.3
4.3
5.7
7.6
10.0
13.1
17.3
22.9
30.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
1.1
1.4
1.9
2.5
3.3
4.3
5.7
7.6
10.0
13.1
17.3
22.9
30.2
Stock/Bond Relative Performance
(AA032)
-3.0 Std Dev
19
30
19
35
19
40
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserv. www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at
Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
DEVELOPED MARKET EQUITIES VS EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES
8
Daily Data 2/13/1992 - 8/27/2013 (Log Scale)
8/27/2013 = 93.5
Dow Jones World Ratio Dev. Emg. %
30-Day Percent Change: GPA GPA GPA of Time
Above 3% 24. 0 13. 7 41. 0 33. 2
Between -1% and 3% 7.2 7.0 14. 7 35. 1
* -1% and Below -28.2 -5. 1 -31.8 31. 7
Buy/Hold -0. 9 5.1 4.2 100.0
Source: Dow Jones Indexes 42
45
49
53
57
62
67
73
79
85
92
99
107
116
126
136
147
159
42
45
49
53
57
62
67
73
79
85
92
99
107
116
126
136
147
159
19
97
20
02
20
07
20
12
Dow Jones Emerging Markets Index / Dow Jones Developed Markets Index
(AVIV200)
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at
Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
US EQUITIES
9
Monthly Data 12/31/1974 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale)
MSCI U.S. Index / MSCI World ex. U.S. Index
(in U.S. Dollars)
7/31/2013 = 92.8
Source: MSCI28
35
43
53
66
82
102
126
28
35
43
53
66
82
102
126
M
+1
+2
-1-2
-3
Dashed L
ines =
Std
Dev
Scale
= %
Poin
ts
U.S. Earnings Yield Minus World ex. U.S. Earnings Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean
7/31/2013 = -1.11
High Reading = Market Inexpensive
Low Reading = Market Expensive
-4
-2
0
2
4
-4
-2
0
2
4
M
+1
-1-2
Dashed L
ines =
Std
Dev
Scale
= %
Poin
ts
U.S. Dividend Yield Minus World ex. U.S. Dividend Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean
7/31/2013 = -1.25 -2
-1
0
1
2
-2
-1
0
1
2
U.S. Book Value Yield Minus World ex. U.S. Book Value Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean
U.S. / World ex. U.S. Relative Valuation Metrics
(AVIV200)
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at
Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
EUROPEAN EQUITIES
10
Monthly Data 12/31/1974 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale)
Austria Italy
Belgium Netherlands
Denmark Norway
Finland Portugal
France Spain
Germany Sweden
Greece Switzerland
Ireland
MSCI Europe ex. U.K. Index / MSCI World ex. U.K. Index
(in U.S. Dollars)
7/31/2013 = 114.0
Source: MSCI69
79
91
104
119
136
156
179
69
79
91
104
119
136
156
179
M
+1
+2
-1-2
-3
Da
sh
ed
Lin
es =
Std
De
v
Sca
le =
% P
oin
ts
Europe ex. U.K. Earnings Yield Minus World ex. U.K. Earnings Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean
7/31/2013 = -0.53
High Reading = Market Inexpensive
Low Reading = Market Expensive
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
M
+1
+2
+3
-1Da
sh
ed
Lin
es =
Std
De
v
Sca
le =
% P
oin
ts
Europe ex. U.K. Dividend Yield Minus World ex. U.K. Dividend Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean
7/31/2013 = 0.21
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
-0.4
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
Europe ex. U.K. Book Value Yield Minus World ex. U.K. Book Value Yield Relative to 38.7-Year Mean
Europe ex. U.K. / World ex. U.K. Relative Valuation Metrics
(AVIV2010)
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at
Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
LATIN AMERICAN EQUITIES
11
Monthly Data 9/30/1995 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale)
Emerging Markets Latin America Constituents:
Brazil Mexico
Chine Peru
Colombia
MSCI Emerging Mkts Latin America Index / MSCI World Index
(in U.S. Dollars)
7/31/2013 = 209.0
Source: MSCI52
64
79
98
122
151
188
233
289
359
445
552
52
64
79
98
122
151
188
233
289
359
445
552
M
+1
+2
+3
+4
-1
Da
sh
ed
Lin
es =
Std
De
v
Sca
le =
% P
oin
ts
Emerging Mkts Latin America Earnings Yield Minus World Earnings Yield Relative to 17.9-Year Mean
7/31/2013 = -1.74
High Reading = Market Inexpensive
Low Reading = Market Expensive
-2
0
2
4
6
-2
0
2
4
6
M
+1
+2
+3
-1-2
Da
sh
ed
Lin
es =
Std
De
v
Sca
le =
% P
oin
ts
Emerging Mkts Latin America Dividend Yield Minus World Dividend Yield Relative to 17.9-Year Mean
7/31/2013 = 0.10
-1
0
1
2
3
-1
0
1
2
3
Emerging Mkts Latin America / World Relative Valuation Metrics
(AVIV16000)
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at
Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
EMERGING EUROPEAN EQUITIES
12
Monthly Data 8/31/1996 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale)
Emerging Markets Eastern Europe Country Constituents:
Czech Republic Poland
Hungary Russia
MSCI Emerging Mkts Eastern Europe Index / MSCI World Index
(in U.S. Dollars)
7/31/2013 = 12.2
Source: MSCI3
5
7
10
13
19
27
38
3
5
7
10
13
19
27
38
M
+1
+2
+3
-1
Dash
ed L
ines
= S
td D
ev
Sca
le =
% P
oin
ts
Emerging Mkts Eastern Europe Earnings Yield Minus World Earnings Yield Relative to 17.0-Year Mean
7/31/2013 = 6.56
High Reading = Market Inexpensive
Low Reading = Market Expensive
-4
0
4
8
12
16
-4
0
4
8
12
16
M
+1
+2
+3
-1
Dash
ed L
ines
= S
td D
ev
Sca
le =
% P
oin
ts
Emerging Mkts Eastern Europe Dividend Yield Minus World Dividend Yield Relative to 16.9-Year Mean
7/31/2013 = 1.77
0
1
2
0
1
2
Emerging Mkts Eastern Europe / World Relative Valuation Metrics
(AVIV20000)
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at
Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
EMERGING ASIA EQUITIES
13
Monthly Data 9/30/1995 - 7/31/2013 (Log Scale)
Emerging Markets Asia Country Constituents:
China Korea Philippines
India Malaysia Taiwan
Indonesia Pakistan Thailand
MSCI Emerging Mkts Asia Index / MSCI World Index
(in U.S. Dollars)
7/31/2013 = 27.6
Source: MSCI11
15
19
24
30
39
50
63
11
15
19
24
30
39
50
63
M
+1
-1-2
-3
Dashed L
ines =
Std
Dev
Scale
= %
Poin
ts
Emerging Mkts Asia Earnings Yield Minus World Earnings Yield Relative to 17.9-Year Mean
7/31/2013 = 1.49
High Reading = Market Inexpensive
Low Reading = Market Expensive
-4
-2
0
2
-4
-2
0
2
M
+1
+2
-1Dashed L
ines =
Std
Dev
Scale
= %
Poin
ts
Emerging Mkts Asia Dividend Yield Minus World Dividend Yield Relative to 17.9-Year Mean
7/31/2013 = 0.01
-0.6
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
-0.6
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
Emerging Mkts Asia / World Relative Valuation Metrics
(AVIV21000)
7/31/2013 = 1.72
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at
Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
US INVESTMENT GRADE BONDS
14
Daily Data 1/03/2000 - 8/27/2013 (Log Scale)
BarclaysU.S. Corporate Credit
( )
10-Year Treasury Note Yield 8/27/2013 = 2.72%
( ) 1.6
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.9
4.4
5.0
5.7
6.5
7.5
8.5
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.3
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.9
4.4
5.0
5.7
6.5
7.5
8.5
Mean = 135
In Basis Points Investment Grade Spread (U.S. Corporate Credit minus 10-Year Treasurys)
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Investment Grade Corporate Spreads
(B333A)
104 104
2000M J S D
2001M J S D
2002M J S D
2003M J S D
2004M J S D
2005M J S D
2006M J S D
2007M J S D
2008M J S D
2009M J S D
2010M J S D
2011M J S D
2012M J S D
2013M J
Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Res. www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at
Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
US HIGH YIELD BONDS
15
Daily Data 1/03/2000 - 8/27/2013 (Log Scale)
Barclays High Yield Corporate Bond Yield
( )
10-Year Treasury Note Yield 8/27/2013 = 2.72%
( ) Source: Federal Reserve Board
1
2
3
4
5
7
10
14
20
1
2
3
4
5
7
10
14
20
Mean = 578
In Basis Points High Yield Spread (High Yield minus 10-Year Treasurys)
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
High Yield Corporate Spreads
(B334A)
135 135
2000M J S D
2001M J S D
2002M J S D
2003M J S D
2004M J S D
2005M J S D
2006M J S D
2007M J S D
2008M J S D
2009M J S D
2010M J S D
2011M J S D
2012M J S D
2013M J
Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Re. www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at
Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
DEBT WORRY
16
Quarterly Data 12/31/1922 - 3/31/2013 (Log Scale)
(E501A)
386.27
3/31/2013 Debt = $57.045 Trillion3/31/2013 GDP = $16.005 Trillion
= 356.4%
Annual interpolated GDP (including estimates prior to 1929) used prior to 1946.
Domestic Nonfinancial Debt used prior to 1951. As of December, 1951
Domestic Nonfinancial Debt represented 98.5% of Total Credit Market Debt. Source: Department of Commerce130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335 340 345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385
130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335 340 345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385
1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Total Credit Market Debt as a % of GDP
Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at
Source: Ned Davis Research at 31 July 2013. Past performance is not a guide to the future
MISSION PORTFOLIOS
17
Aviva Investors Multi-asset Fund III Aviva Investors Multi-Manager 40-85% Shares Fund
TOP FIVE HOLDINGS % NAV
AXA FRAMLINGTON UK SELECT OPP 10.1
INVESTEC SPECIAL SITUATIONS MANDATE 10.0
ARTEMIS INCOME FUND 9.1
ODEY EUROPEAN INCOME 6.0
HERMES US SMID EQUITY 5.8
TOP FIVE HOLDINGS % NAV
BLACKROCK NORTH AMER EQ TRACKER 31.1
BLACKROCK CONT EUROPE EQ TRACKER 10.2
RIVER ROAD US EQTY INCOME 7.9
BLACKROCK EMER MKTS EQ TRACKER 6.1
BLACKROCK JAPAN EQUITY TRACKER 6.1
Source: Aviva Investors as at 29 August 2013 – No part of this document is intended to constitute advice or recommendations of any nature. Past performance is not a guide to the future.
Equity 80%
Fixed Income9%
AlternativeAssets 5%
Cash 6%
Equity 76%
Fixed Income10%
AlternativeAssets 11%
Cash 3%
MISSION PORTFOLIOS
Funds
1 year
performance
%
3 year
performance
%
1 year
standard
deviation
1 year
Sharpe Ratio
Ongoing
Charge
Figure
%
Aviva Investors
Multi-asset Fund III
SC4*
13.86 - 8.13 1.58 1.13
Aviva Investors Multi-
Manager
40-85% Shares Fund
SC2
18.52 9.83** 8.88 1.51 1.62
18
Source: Morningstar as at 29/8/13 net of fees, Aviva Investors Multi-asset Fund III is share class 4 and Aviva Investors Multi-Manager 40-85% Shares Fund is Share Class 2 (bought via platform). Past performance is not a guide to the future.
• Launched on the 6 February 2012** Since fund manager inception 1 August 2011
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
CI062755 09/2013 19
This document is intended for financial advisers only. It is not to be viewed by or used with retail clients..
Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors as at 31 August 2013
Any future returns and opinions expressed are based on the internal forecasts of Aviva Investors and should not be relied upon as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors. No part of this document is intended to constitute advice or recommendations of any nature. Past performance is not a guide to the future.
The value of assets are subject to market fluctuations and can move irrationally and be unpredictably affected by many and various factors including political and economic events and rumours and as such the value of investments may go down as well as up and your clients may receive less than the original amount invested. There can be no assurance that these Funds will meet their investment objectives or that they will stay within their target volatility ranges.
As the Funds will be subject to short-term market fluctuations and they aim, on average, to reflect investor risk profiles, over any three year period, they should be viewed as medium to long-term investments.
As these Funds may invest outside of the UK in assets denominated in currencies other than sterling, any currency exchange rate movement may cause the value of an investment to fall as well as rise.
For further information please read the latest Key Investor Information Document and Supplementary Information Document. The full Prospectus and the annual and interim reports are also available on request. Copies can be obtained, in English, from Aviva Investors UK Fund Services Limited, No. 1 Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ or by contacting our Relationship Management Team – Aviva Investors UK Fund Sales on 0800 015 4773 or email them on fund&[email protected].
Investment in the Mission Portfolios range of funds is provided by Aviva Investors UK Fund Services Limited, the Authorised Fund Manager.
Throughout the document Aviva Investors refers to Aviva Global Services Limited, the Investment Manager. The Investment Manager manages the funds(s) on a daily basis making and implementing all portfolio decisions.
Issued by Aviva Investors UK Fund Services Limited, the Authorised Fund Manager. Registered in England No. 1973412. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Firm Reference No. 119310. Registered address: No 1. Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ. An Aviva company. www.avivainvestors.co.uk