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1 Date: October 16, 2012 Analyst Name: Fausto Guillén Aguilar Jr. CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Company Name and Ticker: Apple Inc. AAPL Section (A) Summary Recommendation Buy: Yes Target Price: $740 Stop-Loss Price: $585 Sector: Technology Industry: Computer Systems Market Cap (in Billions): $600,792.88 # of Shrs. O/S (in Millions): 937.41 Current Price: $649.79 52 WK Hi: $705.07 52 WK Low: $363.32 EBO Valuation: $758.22 Morningstar (MS) Fair Value Est.: $770.00 MS FV Uncertainty: Medium MS Consider Buying: $539.00 MS Consider Selling: $1039.50 EPS (TTM): 42.54 EPS (FY1): 53.44 EPS (FY2): n/a MS Star Rating: 4.0 Next Fiscal Yr. End ”Year”: 13 “Month”: Sep Last Fiscal Qtr. End: Dec 12 Less Than 8 WK: N If Less Than 8 WK, next Earnings Ann. Date: 25- Oct-12 Analyst Consensus Recommendation: Outperform Forward P/E: 12.16 Mean LT Growth: 21.81 PEG: 0.56 Beta: 1.20 % Inst. Ownership: 67.84% Inst. Ownership- Net Buy: N Short Interest Ratio: 1.0 Short as % of Float: n/a Ratio Analysis Company Industry Sector P/E (TTM) 15.07 12.31 19.74 P/S (TTM) 4.04 1.07 3.57 P/B (MRQ) 5.38 2.20 3.72 P/CF (TTM) 13.98 10.92 13.31 Dividend Yield 1.65 2.42 1.94 Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.00 52.62 18.08 Net Profit Margin (TTM) 26.97 6.34 13.88 ROA (TTM) 29.77 8.53 14.34 ROE (TTM) 44.32 15.94 20.36
Transcript
Page 1: CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) · PDF file1 Date: October 16, 2012 Analyst Name: Fausto Guillén Aguilar Jr. CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Company Name and

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Date: October 16, 2012

Analyst Name: Fausto Guillén Aguilar Jr.

CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012)

Company Name and Ticker: Apple Inc. AAPL

Section (A) Summary

Recommendation Buy: Yes Target Price: $740 Stop-Loss Price: $585

Sector: Technology Industry: Computer Systems

Market Cap (in Billions): $600,792.88

# of Shrs. O/S (in Millions): 937.41

Current Price: $649.79 52 WK Hi: $705.07

52 WK Low: $363.32 EBO Valuation: $758.22

Morningstar (MS) Fair Value Est.: $770.00

MS FV Uncertainty: Medium

MS Consider Buying: $539.00

MS Consider Selling: $1039.50

EPS (TTM): 42.54 EPS (FY1): 53.44 EPS (FY2): n/a MS Star Rating: 4.0

Next Fiscal Yr. End ”Year”: 13 “Month”: Sep

Last Fiscal Qtr. End: Dec 12 Less Than 8 WK: N

If Less Than 8 WK, next Earnings Ann. Date: 25-Oct-12

Analyst Consensus Recommendation: Outperform

Forward P/E: 12.16 Mean LT Growth: 21.81 PEG: 0.56 Beta: 1.20

% Inst. Ownership: 67.84%

Inst. Ownership- Net Buy: N

Short Interest Ratio: 1.0 Short as % of Float: n/a

Ratio Analysis Company Industry Sector

P/E (TTM) 15.07 12.31 19.74

P/S (TTM) 4.04 1.07 3.57

P/B (MRQ) 5.38 2.20 3.72

P/CF (TTM) 13.98 10.92 13.31

Dividend Yield 1.65 2.42 1.94

Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.00 52.62 18.08

Net Profit Margin (TTM) 26.97 6.34 13.88

ROA (TTM) 29.77 8.53 14.34

ROE (TTM) 44.32 15.94 20.36

Page 2: CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) · PDF file1 Date: October 16, 2012 Analyst Name: Fausto Guillén Aguilar Jr. CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Company Name and

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Investment Thesis I believe Apple Inc will be a great investment for our Cougar Investment Fund portfolio, because according to various analysts’ opinions and my research – the stock price will go up. Furthermore, I will explain additional reasons on why I believe we should buy Apple Inc shares. - Low-end of the range The current price has dropped these last few days. The last two times the share went this low (June 2011 & May 2012), the price went up 30%+ shortly after. Apple Inc shares should go up 40-60% by Fall of 2013. - Innovation Apple expects to sell 50-60 million new iPhone 5 smart phones, which will drive up earning per share. The new mini iPad, MacBook Pro, and iMac, will be coming out within the next couple of weeks. People who sync there Apple products with iCloud service normally will continue using Apple products – higher switching costs. - Financial Health Apple has no debt and is expected to have a 45% revenue growth along with a 21% sales growth in the coming fiscal year.

Summary Provide brief summary of your analysis in each section that follows

Company Profile: Apple Inc is an American company that designs, manufactures, and markets personal

computers and media devices. Additionally, Apple Inc sells software and services.

Fundamental Valuation: The implied price today, using the full twelve year forecasting horizon is $758.22. I believe the company can keep growing at the long-term growth rate for up to seven years.

Relative Valuation: The valuation was very mixed and Apple Inc continued to be the leader among its

competitors.

Revenue and Earnings Estimates: Revenue and earnings estimates have been fairly accurate. Actual revenue and earnings have been steadily growing.

Analyst Recommendations: The majorities of the

recommendations are buying and secondly outperform. With a consensus recommendation at outperform.

Institutional Ownership: The institutional ownership of Apple Inc is between 67-68%. Additionally, there are none that own more than 5% of Apple Inc.

Short Interest: The short interest ratio has been at

1.0% or very close to 1.0% for the last couple of years.

Stock Price Chart: The stock for Apple Inc has been increasing at a good pace for the last five years. The price of the stock took a small dip in early 2009; however, it shot back up shortly after.

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Section (B) Company Profile (two pages maximum)

Company Summary

Apple Inc. (Apple) was incorporate on January 3, 1977. (www.reuters.com) Apple offers media

devices, personal computers, mobile communication, software, and third party applications.

Some of the products and service offered by Apple are the iPod, iPhone, iMac, consumer

software, iPad, Apple TV, and iCloud.

Apple Inc. top competitors are:

Google Microsoft Corporation

Hewlett-Packard Company Research in Motion Limited

Apple Inc. is a focus-differentiated company, which means they produce products that create

value to the consumer. Therefore, Apple Inc can charge a premium for their products and consumers will pay the higher price. Due to Apple’s core competencies and resources, it gains

competitive advantage by continue to innovate new products and update current ones. Ultimately, Apple is a very known brand and key player in the Technology sector. If they maintain their competitive advantage, they will continue to earn high revenue and earnings for

a long time.

Revenue and Earnings History

This information is available in Reuters.com, “Financials” tab. Copy/paste the quarterly

revenue and earnings per share numbers for the most recent three years. Add the numbers

over four fiscal quarters to get annual revenue and earnings. For the current fiscal year, go

ahead add up as many quarters as are available. NOTE: revenue numbers are “in millions”.

Discuss any pattern in revenue and earnings (e.g., increasing year over year; seasonal; etc.)

REVENUE

Periods 2010 2011 2012

December 15683.0 26741.0 46333.0

March 13499.0 24667.0 39186.0

June 15700.0 28571.0 35023.0

Page 4: CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) · PDF file1 Date: October 16, 2012 Analyst Name: Fausto Guillén Aguilar Jr. CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Company Name and

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September 20343.0 28270.0

Note: Units in Millions of U.S. Dollars

EARNINGS PER SHARE

Periods 2010 2011 2012

December 3.67261 6.43409 13.8747

March 3.33088 6.39675 12.2998

June 3.5078 7.79262 9.31727

September 4.63812 7.04937

Note: Units in U.S. Dollars

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Section (C) Fundamental Valuation (EBO)

Include the following here:

Copy/paste completed Fundamental Valuation (EBO) Spreadsheet

Inputs (provide below input values used in your analysis)

EPS forecasts (FY1 & FY2): 44.43 and 53.44

Long-term growth rate: 21.81%

Book value /share (along with book value and number of shares outstanding):

Book value:

# of shares outstanding:

Book value / share: 82.48

Dividend payout ratio: 6.19%

AAPL PARAMETERS FY1 FY2 Ltg

EPS Fore casts 44.43 53.44 21.81% Mode l 1: 12-ye ar fore casting horiz on (T=12).

Book value /share (last fye ) 82.45 and a 7-ye ar growth pe riod.

Discount Rate 11.51%

Divide nd Payout Ratio (POR) 6.19% Please download and save this template to your own storage device

Ne xt Fsc Ye ar e nd 2012 You only ne e d to input value s to ce lls highlighte d in "ye llow"

Curre nt Fsc Mth (1 to 12) 12 The re st o f the spre adshe e t is calculate d automatically

Targe t ROE (industry avg .) 17.46% Ple ase re ad "Guide line s_for_Fundame ntalValuation_ProfLe e _Spre adshe e t" file care fully

Ye ar 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Long-term EPS Growth Rate (Ltg) 0.2181 0.2181 0.2181 0.2181 0.2181

Forecasted EPS 44.43 53.44 65.10 79.29 96.59 117.65 143.31

Beg. of year BV/Shr 82.450 124.130 174.262 235.328 309.712 400.320 510.689

Implied ROE 0.431 0.374 0.337 0.312 0.294 0.281

ROE (Beg. ROE, from EPS forecasts) 0.539 0.431 0.374 0.337 0.312 0.294 0.281 0.259 0.238 0.217 0.196 0.175

Abnormal ROE (ROE-k) 0.424 0.315 0.258 0.222 0.197 0.179 0.166 0.144 0.123 0.102 0.081 0.060

growth rate for B (1-POR)*(ROEt-1) 0.000 0.506 0.404 0.350 0.316 0.293 0.276 0.263 0.243 0.223 0.204 0.184

Compounded growth 1.000 1.506 2.114 2.854 3.756 4.855 6.194 7.824 9.729 11.903 14.326 16.957

growth*AROE 0.424 0.475 0.546 0.633 0.739 0.868 1.025 1.129 1.198 1.213 1.156 1.009

required rate (k) 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115

Compound discount rate 1.115 1.243 1.387 1.546 1.724 1.923 2.144 2.391 2.666 2.973 3.315 3.696

div. payout rate (k) 0.062

Add to P/B PV(growth*AROE) 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.41 0.43 0.45 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.41 0.35 0.27

Cum P/B 1.38 1.76 2.16 2.57 2.99 3.45 3.92 4.40 4.85 5.25 5.60 5.88

Add: Perpetuity

beyond current yr (Assume this yr's AROE forever) 3.30 3.32 3.42 3.56 3.72 3.92 4.15 4.10 3.90 3.55 3.03 2.37

Total P/B (P/B if we stop est. this period) 4.68 5.08 5.58 6.12 6.72 7.37 8.08 8.50 8.75 8.80 8.63 8.25

Implie d price 430.44 467.04 512.89 562.98 617.70 677.46 742.75 781.50 804.39 808.96 793.69 758.22

Che ck:

Beg. BV/Shr 82.45 124.13 174.26 235.33 309.71 400.32 510.69 645.13 802.13 981.38 1181.17 1398.13

Implied EPS 44.43 53.44 65.10 79.29 96.59 117.65 143.31 167.36 191.08 212.97 231.28 244.11

Implied EPS growth 0.203 0.218 0.218 0.218 0.218 0.218 0.168 0.142 0.115 0.086 0.055

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Next fiscal year end: 2012

Current fiscal month: 12

Target ROE: 17.46%

Output

Above normal growth period chosen: 12 years

EBO valuation (Implied price from the spreadsheet): $758.22

Sensitivity Analysis

EBO valuation would be (you can include more than one scenario in each of the following):

$677.46 if changing above normal growth period to 5 years

$758.22 if changing growth rate from mean (consensus) to the highest estimate 10%

$677.46 if changing growth rate from mean (consensus) to the lowest estimate 9%

$1467.16 if changing discount rate to 8%

$633.21 if changing target ROE to 15%

Section (D) Relative Valuation

Copy/paste your completed relative valuation spreadsheet here

From the top panel

AAPL

Mean FY2

Earnings Estimate Forward Mean LT PEG P/B ROE Value P/S P/CF

Ticker Name Mkt Cap Current Price (next fiscal year) P/E Growth Rate (MRQ) 5 yr ave Ratio TTM TTM

1 GOOG Google 243,495.91$ 744.70$ 16.86$ 44.17 16.86% 2.62 3.76 19.44% 0.19 5.64 18.35

2 HPQ.N Hewlett-Packard Company 27,880.17$ 14.57$ 3.60$ 4.05 2.88% 1.41 0.88 25.95% 0.03 0.23

3 MSFT.O Microsoft Corporation 244,328.41$ 29.49$ 3.30$ 8.94 8.85% 1.01 3.66 40.00% 0.09 3.31 12.25

4 RIMM.OResearch In Motion Limited 4,064.46$ 7.83$ (0.55)$ -14.24 5.00% -2.85 0.43 31.31% 0.01 0.27 3.38

AAPL Apple Inc 600,792.88$ 649.79$ 53.44$ 12.16 21.81% 0.56 5.38 36.21% 0.15 4.04 13.98

Implied Price based on: P/E PEG P/B Value P/S P/CF

1 GOOG Google ######## $3,053.43 $454.13 $845.88 $907.13 $852.91

2 HPQ.N Hewlett-Packard Company $216.28 $1,637.90 $106.29 $148.31 $36.99 $0.00

3 MSFT.O Microsoft Corporation $477.56 $1,176.90 $442.05 $400.17 $532.38 $569.38

4 RIMM.OResearch In Motion Limited ($760.79) ######## $51.93 $60.06 $43.43 $157.10

High ######## $3,053.43 $454.13 $845.88 $907.13 $852.91

Low -$760.79 ######## $51.93 $60.06 $36.99 $0.00

Median $346.92 $1,407.40 $274.17 $274.24 $287.90 $363.24

Page 7: CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) · PDF file1 Date: October 16, 2012 Analyst Name: Fausto Guillén Aguilar Jr. CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Company Name and

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Discuss whether your stock and its competitors have very different multiples. Point out if any of

the five stocks have multiple that is far off from the others. Make an attempt to explain why

(you would want to read analyst research report in Morningstar Direct; you should also look for

comments from other financial sites). The discussions should address all of the following

valuation metrics: forward P/E, PEG, P/B (MRQ), P/S (TTM), and P/CF (TTM).

Compare the implied prices derived from various valuation metrics. Also compare those implied

price to the stock’s current price, and 52-week high and low.

From the bottom panel

Discuss the various implied prices of your stock derived from competitors’ (“comparables”)

multiples. How different are the prices derived from the various valuation metrics? Note any

valuation metrics that seem to yield outlier prices and explain why (HINT: is that because that

particular valuation metrics is not very relevant for the industry? Do you best to provide

convincing arguments).

For each valuation metrics, Compare the current price and 52-week high /low of your stock to

the High-low range derived from multiples of its competitors.

Among the valuation metrics analyzed, which ones do you think are most relevant as a

valuation tool for your stock?

Section (E) Revenue and Earnings Estimates

Copy/Paste the “Historical Surprises” Table from Reuters.com, “Analysts” tab (include both

revenue and earnings; make note that revenues might be in “millions”)

Review recent trends in company’s reported revenue and earnings, and discuss whether (1) the

company has a pattern of “surprising” the market with numbers different from analysts’

estimates; (2) Were they positive(actual greater than estimate) or negative (actual less than

estimate) surprises? (3) Were surprises more notable for revenue or earnings? (4) Look up the

stock chart to see how the stock price reacted to the “surprises. NOTE: Reuters does not put

the sign on the surprise. You need to put a “negative” sign when it is a negative surprise.

HISTORICAL SURPRISES

Sales and Profit Figures in US Dollar (USD) Earnings and Dividend Figures in US Dollar (USD)

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Estimates vs Actual Estimate Actual Difference Surprise %

SALES (in millions)

Quarter Ending Jun-12 37,215.90 35,023.00 2,192.88 5.89

Quarter Ending Mar-12 36,808.00 39,186.00 2,377.95 6.46

Quarter Ending Dec-11 39,062.50 46,333.00 7,270.46 18.61

Quarter Ending Sep-11 29,685.50 28,270.00 1,415.55 4.77

Quarter Ending Jun-11 24,960.80 28,571.00 3,610.20 14.46

Earnings (per share)

Quarter Ending Jun-12 10.39 9.32 1.07 10.29

Quarter Ending Mar-12 10.04 12.30 2.26 22.55

Quarter Ending Dec-11 10.16 13.87 3.71 36.46

Quarter Ending Sep-11 7.39 7.05 0.34 4.54

Quarter Ending Jun-11 5.84 7.79 1.95 33.44

Copy/paste the “Consensus Estimates Analysis” Table from Reuters.com, “Analysts” tab

(include both revenue and earnings)

Review the range and the consensus of analysts’ estimates. (1) Calculate the % difference of the

“high” estimate from the consensus (mean); (2) Calculate the % (negative) difference of the

“low” estimate from the consensus; (3) Are the divergent more notable for the current or out-

quarter, FY1 or FY2, revenue or earnings? (4) Note the number of analysts providing LT growth

rate estimate. It that roughly the same as the number of analysts providing revenue and

earnings estimates?

CONSENSUS ESTIMATES ANALYSIS

Sales and Profit Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Earnings and Dividend Figures in US Dollar (USD)

# of Estimates Mean High Low 1 Year

Ago

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SALES (in millions)

Quarter Ending Dec-12 39 54,716.10 59,739.00 49,314.40 41,498.00

Quarter Ending Mar-13 38 47,042.10 56,442.00 40,076.50 35,783.40

Year Ending Sep-12 52 156,777.00 161,978.00 152,300.00 134,955.00

Year Ending Sep-13 52 194,198.00 222,999.00 171,551.00 155,500.00

Earnings (per share)

Quarter Ending Dec-12 40 15.41 18.47 11.69 9.67

Quarter Ending Mar-13 39 13.25 16.52 10.75 8.56

Year Ending Sep-12 55 44.43 46.29 43.48 32.88

Year Ending Sep-13 55 53.44 63.50 42.03 38.04

LT Growth Rate (%) 12 21.81 35.00 15.00 21.25

Copy/paste the “Consensus Estimates Trend” Table from Reuters.com, “Analysts” tab (include

both revenue and earnings)

Review recent trend of analysts’ consensus (mean) estimates on revenue and earnings. (1) Are

the consensus estimates trending up, down, or stay the same? (2) Is the trend more notable for

the near- or out- quarter, FY1 or FY2, revenue or earnings?

CONSENSUS ESTIMATES TREND

Sales and Profit Figures in US Dollar (USD) Earnings and Dividend Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Current 1 Week

Ago 1 Month

Ago 2 Month

Ago 1 Year

Ago

SALES (in millions)

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Quarter Ending Dec-12 54,716.10 54,904.30 54,896.00 54,773.10 41,498.00

Quarter Ending Mar-13 47,042.10 47,002.70 46,524.70 46,574.20 35,783.40

Year Ending Sep-12 156,777.00 156,701.00 155,742.00 155,887.00 134,955.00

Year Ending Sep-13 194,198.00 193,966.00 192,248.00 191,840.00 155,500.00

Earnings (per share)

Quarter Ending Dec-12 15.41 15.43 15.38 15.31 9.67

Quarter Ending Mar-13 13.25 13.17 12.97 12.96 8.56

Quarter Ending Sep-12 44.43 44.42 44.03 44.11 32.88

Quarter Ending Sep-13 53.44 53.37 52.56 52.50 38.04

Copy/paste the “Estimates Revisions Summary” Table from Reuters.com, “Analysts” tab

(include both revenue and earnings)

Review the number of analysts revising up or down their estimates (both revenue and earnings)

in the last and last four weeks. (1) Note whether there are more up or down revisions; (2) are

the revisions predominantly one directional? (3) Any notable difference last week versus last

four weeks, revenue versus earnings?

ESTIMATES REVISIONS SUMMARY

Last Week Last 4 Weeks

Number Of Revisions: Up Down Up Down

Revenue

Quarter Ending Dec-12 1 1 16 9

Page 11: CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) · PDF file1 Date: October 16, 2012 Analyst Name: Fausto Guillén Aguilar Jr. CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Company Name and

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Quarter Ending Mar-13 1 1 17 7

Year Ending Sep-12 2 1 31 1

Year Ending Sep-13 2 0 26 6

Earnings

Quarter Ending Dec-12 1 1 14 10

Quarter Ending Mar-13 2 0 19 5

Year Ending Sep-12 2 1 31 2

Year Ending Sep-13 2 0 27 4

You will need to incorporate what you see here with Morningstar’s analyst research report (you

can access Morningstar Direct at the Financial Markets Lab.) and other readings/analysis you

found from various on-line financial sites. Discuss whether you think the company has a good

chance of making or beating analyst consensus estimate, and why. Based on how the stock has

been trading lately, do you think market has already anticipated strong or lackluster financial

outlook from the company?

According to Morningstar report, Apple Inc has to continue innovating new products and

maintain healthy connections with third party partners in order to continue being successful. I

totally agree with this statement. Apple Inc will take out new products next week and is still

busy trying to complete all iPhone 5 orders. In my opinion, Apple’s outlook looks very well and

we should expect the share price to rise.

Section (F) Analysts’ Recommendations

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Copy/paste the “Analyst Recommendations and Revisions” Table from Reuters.com,

“Analysts” tab. NOTE: Make sure you copy the entire table including the “Mean Rating” at the

bottom of the table.

HISTORICAL SURPRISES

Sales and Profit Figures in US Dollar (USD) Earnings and Dividend Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Estimates vs Actual Estimate Actual Difference Surprise %

SALES (in millions)

Quarter Ending Jun-12 37,215.90 35,023.00 2,192.88 5.89

Quarter Ending Mar-12 36,808.00 39,186.00 2,377.95 6.46

Quarter Ending Dec-11 39,062.50 46,333.00 7,270.46 18.61

Quarter Ending Sep-11 29,685.50 28,270.00 1,415.55 4.77

Quarter Ending Jun-11 24,960.80 28,571.00 3,610.20 14.46

Earnings (per share)

Quarter Ending Jun-12 10.39 9.32 1.07 10.29

Quarter Ending Mar-12 10.04 12.30 2.26 22.55

Quarter Ending Dec-11 10.16 13.87 3.71 36.46

Quarter Ending Sep-11 7.39 7.05 0.34 4.54

Quarter Ending Jun-11 5.84 7.79 1.95 33.44

Review the trend of analyst recommendations over the last three months. Is there a notable

change of analyst opinions, turning more bullish or bearish? How many different ratings out

of the five possible ones did the company receive currently, one, two, and three months ago?

Is there a notable trend of opinion convergence or divergence? Is what you see here

consistent to comments in Morningstar analyst’s research report as well as various online

financial sites you had researched on?

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NOTE: On a Five-point scale, Reuters assigns “1” to “Buy”, the most bullish recommendation,

and “5” to “Sell”, the most bearish recommendation. Some other online sites have opposite

scale, with their “1” being the most bearish and “5” being the most bullish recommendations.

After looking at numerous analysts’ recommendation, they are all very constant and alike. They

all recommend a buy and or outperform.

Section (G) Institutional Ownership

Copy/paste the completed “CIF Institutional Ownership” spreadsheet here.

Page 14: CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) · PDF file1 Date: October 16, 2012 Analyst Name: Fausto Guillén Aguilar Jr. CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Company Name and

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AAPL

Ownership Activity # of Holders % Beg. Holders Shares % Shares

Shares Outstanding 937,432,843 100.00%

# of Holders/Tot Shares Held 2,395 100.55% 635,954,441 67.84%

# New Positions 19 0.80%

# Closed Positions 6 0.25%

# Increased Positions 131 5.50%

# Decreased Positions 157 6.59%

Beg. Total Inst. Positions 2,382 100.00% 636,396,830 67.89%

# Net Buyers/3 Mo. Net Chg -26 45.49% -442,389 -0.05%

Ownership Information % Outstanding

Top 10 Institutions % Ownership 24.80%

Mutual Fund % Ownership 1.09%

Float % 99.17%

> 5% Ownership

Holder Name % Outstanding Report Date

"5% Ownership Info n/a right now"

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Combine information provided in all three sections to discuss whether (1) institutions, on net

basis, have been increasing or decreasing ownership and how significant, (2) the stock has

sizable institution interests and support, (3) the extent of the (> 5%) owners, and (4) this

could be a bullish or bearish indication of future stock price movement.

1. Institutional ownership has not been decreasing or increasing, but more so staying at around

the same percentage.

2. The stock does have interest and support, close to 70%.

3. None

4. I believe it is bullish, it looks like Apple has support and the future stock price should go up.

Section (H) Short Interest (two pages)

From http://www.nasdaq.com/ (NASDAQ’s website)

Copy/paste or enter the data in the following table. You also need to copy/paste the chart to

the right.

Copy/paste or type the information from “short interest” table. You will start from the most

recent release date, and go back for a year (some stocks may not have data go back for a

year)

Copy/paste the chart to the right of the “short interest” table, immediately follow the table

below

NOTE: You are encouraged to look at the short interest information for two of the companies’

closest competitors. This will help gauge whether the sentiment indicated in the short interest

statistics is company specific or industry-wide.

9/28/2012 15,123,230 18,190,057 1.000000

9/14/2012 14,515,549 17,998,881 1.000000

8/31/2012 13,591,386 15,913,184 1.000000

8/15/2012 13,282,922 10,867,414 1.222271

7/31/2012 11,466,323 16,442,443 1.000000

7/13/2012 12,746,106 15,143,904 1.000000

6/29/2012 12,445,119 12,150,233 1.024270

6/15/2012 15,187,253 15,569,838 1.000000

5/31/2012 14,652,690 20,848,952 1.000000

5/15/2012 11,726,573 16,839,033 1.000000

Settlement Date Short Interest Average Daily # of

Days to cover Shares Volume

Page 16: CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) · PDF file1 Date: October 16, 2012 Analyst Name: Fausto Guillén Aguilar Jr. CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Company Name and

16

4/30/2012 11,376,018 31,620,103 1.000000

4/13/2012 8,093,467 25,967,822 1.000000

3/30/2012 9,677,286 24,993,323 1.000000

3/15/2012 9,866,671 27,294,979 1.000000

2/29/2012 9,797,118 23,178,150 1.000000

2/15/2012 10,446,497 19,290,748 1.000000

1/31/2012 10,589,404 14,754,114 1.000000

1/13/2012 11,530,052 10,072,631 1.144691

12/30/2011 9,962,590 9,656,582 1.031689

12/15/2011 10,585,807 12,376,325 1.000000

11/30/2011 11,619,638 14,258,821 1.000000

11/15/2011 9,440,115 17,045,332 1.000000

10/31/2011 10,683,440 21,519,252 1.000000

10/14/2011 12,011,234 24,769,126 1.000000

Read more: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/short-interest#ixzz29VAUCSBW

Page 17: CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) · PDF file1 Date: October 16, 2012 Analyst Name: Fausto Guillén Aguilar Jr. CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Company Name and

17

From http://finance.yahoo.com/

Complete the following table with information from the “share statistics” table.

Avg Vol Avg Vol Shares Float (3 month) (10 day) Outstanding

15,783,100 20,387,400 937.41M 936.74M

Shares Short Short Ratio Short % of Float Shares Short

(as of Sep 28, 2012) (as of Sep 28, 2012) (as of Sep 28, 2012) (prior month)

15.12M 0.90 1.60% 14.52M

Based on the short interest statistics and its recent trend, how is the market sentiment on the

stock? Has the sentiment turned more bullish or bearish over the last year? How about in

more recent month and why?

Page 18: CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) · PDF file1 Date: October 16, 2012 Analyst Name: Fausto Guillén Aguilar Jr. CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Company Name and

18

Section (I) Stock Charts

A three months price chart

AAPL.0 (TURQOUISE), S&P500 (DARK PURPLE), TECHNOLOGY (RED), GOOG.0 (GREEN), HPQ (PURPLE)

A one year price chart

AAPL.0 (TURQOUISE), S&P500 (DARK PURPLE), TECHNOLOGY (RED), GOOG.0 (GREEN), HPQ (PURPLE)

Page 19: CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) · PDF file1 Date: October 16, 2012 Analyst Name: Fausto Guillén Aguilar Jr. CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Company Name and

19

A five year price chart

AAPL.0 (TURQOUISE), S&P500 (DARK PURPLE), TECHNOLOGY (RED), GOOG.0 (GREEN), HPQ (PURPLE)

Additional price chart: Max 1992-2012

AAPL.0 (TURQOUISE), S&P500 (DARK PURPLE), TECHNOLOGY (RED), GOOG.0 (GREEN), HPQ (PURPLE)

Page 20: CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) · PDF file1 Date: October 16, 2012 Analyst Name: Fausto Guillén Aguilar Jr. CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Fall 2012) Company Name and

20

Discuss what you observe from the stock charts. This should include comparing your stock to

competitors, sector, and SP500 over the three different time horizons.

Overall, Apple Inc has done very well against its competitors, the sector, and the SP500. The

only period that looks like Apple did not do so great, is the three-month comparison, but other

that everything else looks good.


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