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Date: March 4 th , 2013 Analyst Name: Tung Linh CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Spring 2013) Company Name and Ticker: Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B) Section (A) Summary Recommendation Buy: Yes Target Price: $112 (+10%) Stop-Loss Price: $91 (-10%) Sector: Financials Industry: Insurance - Diversified Market Cap (in Billions): $246.22 # of Shrs. O/S (in Millions): 1.65 Current Price: $102.05 52 WK Hi: $101.84 52 WK Low: $78.18 EBO Valuation: $96.61 Morningstar (MS) Fair Value Est.: $117.00 MS FV Uncertainty: Medium MS Consider Buying: $81.90 MS Consider Selling: $157.95 EPS (TTM): $5.38 EPS (FY1): $5.66 EPS (FY2): $6.19 MS Star Rating: ★★★★ Next Fiscal Yr. End 2013 December Last Fiscal Qtr. End: Less Than 8 WK: Yes If Less Than 8 WK, next Earnings Ann. Date: March 1 st , 2013 Analyst Consensus Recommendation: Outperform Forward P/E: 10.34 Mean LT Growth: 9.5% PEG: 1.09 Beta: 0.53 % Inst. Ownership: 18.51% Inst. Ownership- Net Buy: No Short Interest Ratio: 2.20 Short as % of Float: 1.10% Ratio Analysis Company Industry Sector P/E (TTM) 18.58 15.26 35.90 P/S (TTM) 1.58 0.62 5.93 P/B (MRQ) 1.34 1.11 1.44 P/CF (TTM) 13.01 10.64 18.44 Dividend Yield -- 2.28 1.69 Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 33.86 16.76 163.24 Net Profit Margin (TTM) 8.89 4.05 16.48 ROA (TTM) 3.42 1.15 0.90 ROE (TTM) 7.73 7.45 6.34
Transcript
Page 1: CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Spring 2013) · CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Spring 2013) ... Wells Fargo In 2008, ... Next Fsc Year end 2013 Current Fsc Mth ...

Date: March 4th, 2013

Analyst Name: Tung Linh

CIF Stock Recommendation Report (Spring 2013)

Company Name and Ticker: Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B)

Section (A) Summary

Recommendation Buy: Yes Target Price: $112 (+10%)

Stop-Loss Price: $91 (-10%)

Sector: Financials Industry: Insurance - Diversified

Market Cap (in Billions): $246.22

# of Shrs. O/S (in Millions): 1.65

Current Price: $102.05 52 WK Hi: $101.84

52 WK Low: $78.18 EBO Valuation: $96.61

Morningstar (MS) Fair Value Est.: $117.00

MS FV Uncertainty: Medium

MS Consider Buying: $81.90

MS Consider Selling: $157.95

EPS (TTM): $5.38 EPS (FY1): $5.66 EPS (FY2): $6.19 MS Star Rating: ★★★★

Next Fiscal Yr. End 2013 December

Last Fiscal Qtr. End: Less Than 8 WK: Yes

If Less Than 8 WK, next Earnings Ann. Date: March 1st, 2013

Analyst Consensus Recommendation: Outperform

Forward P/E: 10.34 Mean LT Growth: 9.5% PEG: 1.09 Beta: 0.53

% Inst. Ownership: 18.51%

Inst. Ownership- Net Buy: No

Short Interest Ratio: 2.20 Short as % of Float: 1.10%

Ratio Analysis Company Industry Sector

P/E (TTM) 18.58 15.26 35.90

P/S (TTM) 1.58 0.62 5.93

P/B (MRQ) 1.34 1.11 1.44

P/CF (TTM) 13.01 10.64 18.44

Dividend Yield -- 2.28 1.69

Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 33.86 16.76 163.24

Net Profit Margin (TTM) 8.89 4.05 16.48

ROA (TTM) 3.42 1.15 0.90

ROE (TTM) 7.73 7.45 6.34

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Investment Thesis Pros

o Strong historical earnings and good analysts’ estimates

o Low beta, high long term growth estimate

o Warren Buffett – Chairman and CEO – has made a lot good investments

o Morningstar Direct suggests the stock is currently undervalued

Cons o Due to the company

complexity and unrelated businesses, it’s very hard to estimate the performance of the company

o There are too few analysts estimating Berkshire Hathaway

o Warren Buffett (age 82) is responsible for all major investments

Summary

Company Profile: an investment firm includes many different and unrelated businesses.

Fundamental Valuation: a bit overprice with 2 years above normal growth period. With a complex and unrelated businesses, it’s very hard to estimate the earnings and growth rate.

Relative Valuation: in line with the current stock price. Not reliable since they are not direct competitors. Due to their size and complexity, some data are not available.

Revenue and Earnings Estimates: analysts are bullish about Berkshire’s future performance. Can be bias and inaccurate since there are too few analysts involve.

Analyst Recommendations: mean rating is outperform. The current recommendation includes only three analysts, therefore it’s not reliable.

Institutional Ownership: small but include well-known investment firms.

Short Interest: not available. Short ratio and short percentage of float are low.

Stock Price Chart: outperforms both the sector and market. RSI suggests that the stock is at its fair value.

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Section (B) Company Profile

Significant acquisition – successor – portfolio investment

Company Summary

Berkshire Hathaway is an investment firm that operates business in many different

industries through its subsidiaries including property and casualty insurance and reinsurance,

freight transportation, utilities and energy, manufacturing, service and retailing. Berkshire

Hathaway has two common share classes A and B. Class B receive dividend and distribution

rights equal to one-fifteen-hundredth of class A. Class B has voting rights equal to one-ten-

thousandth of voting rights of class A.

The following pie charts show the revenue breakdown of Berkshire Hathaway based on

business segment and specific subsidiaries. The data are from the 2012 10-K report of the

company released on March 1st, 2013.

Looking at the chart, more than 75% of 2012 revenue of the company comes from the

insurance business. The big subsidiaries in this group are GEICO, General Re, Berkshire

Hathaway Reinsurance Group, and Berkshire Hathaway Primary Group. Berkshire Hathaway

acquired Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation on 2010. The company owns 89.8% in

MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company, an international energy company that generates,

distributes and supplies energy.

Revenue

Insurance and Other

Railroad, Utilites andEnergy

Finance and FinancialProducts

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In 2008, Berkshire acquired 64% of Marmon Holdings Inc, a private company that

operates in three different segments: supplying custom metal components for construction,

industrial, aerospace; leasing mobile cranes, supplying electrical and electronic wire and cable;

and providing transportation services. McLane Company is a wholesale distributor that

operates in all 50 states and internationally in Brazil. Before being acquired in 2003 by

Berkshire, McLane was part the distribution network of Wal-Mart.

The companies in the following list are the biggest holdings in Berkshire Hathaway’s

investment portfolio.

Business Model, Competition, Environment and Strategy

Company Stake

Wells Fargo 8.35%

Coca-Cola 8.95%

IBM 6.03%

American Express 13.55%

Procter & Gamble 1.93%

Wal-Mart Stores 1.42%

U.S. Bancorp 3.28%

DIRECTV 5.63%

Moody's Corp 12.73%

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The most important decisions are made by Warren Buffett – Berkshire’s Chairman and

CEO. His business strategy is acquiring firms with strong brand name in an industry that he

understands. Operating in many different industries has many problems: aggressive

competition, regulation.

The most recent deal that Buffett made is an joint acquisition of H.J. Heinz Co. with 3G

Capital, a Brazilian private equity firm. Of the $12.4 billion, Berkshire will control $4.4 billion

common stock and $8 billion preferred stock. The preferred pays 9% dividend, which means the

company will receive $720 million per year. In this particular deal, Berkshire gets a security with

high rate and a senior position relative to other common stock holders and a security that pays

out when Heinz performs well in the future.

According to their 10-K report, one of the biggest risks of Berkshire Hathaway is the

company relies heavily on a few key people. Major investment decisions are made by Warren

Buffet – Chairman of the Board of Directors and CEO – age 82 and Charles Munger – Vice

Chairman of the Board of Directors – age 89. In case Buffett were to become unavailable,

Berkshire will be severe damaged. Todd Combs and Ted Wescher, each manage about $5 billion

portfolio, are highly praised by Buffett. He said that they both outperform the S&P 500 by

double-digit margin.

Berkshire has increased their stake in two of the “Big Four” investment: IBM (6.0%

versus 5.5% in 2011), and Wells Fargo (8.7% versus 7.6% in 2011). For the other two - American

Express and Coca-Cola, their stake also increase due to stock repurchase. The company

announced that they are buying Tulsa World. This will increased the total daily newspaper small

and medium size companies to 28. Berkshire also owns 40 other newspaper companies that

publish less frequently. Buffett believes that newspapers are local sources of information and

will have decent returns.

Revenue and Earnings History

Revenue

Periods 2011 2012

March 33720.0 38147.0

June 38274.0 38546.0

September 33739.0 41050.0

December 37955.0

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Note: Units in Millions of U.S. Dollars

Earnings per Share

Periods 2011 2012

March 916.64 1965.54

June 2072.1 1881.91

September 1379.53 2372.62

December 1846.37

Note: Units in U.S. Dollars

Berkshire Hathaway’s 2011 revenue is $143,688 million and earnings is $6,214.64.

According to their recently announced 2012 10-K report, the consolidated revenue for 2012 is

$162,463 million and earnings is $8,977. Both the revenue and earnings are trending upward

except the unusual high in the second quarter of 2011.

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Section (C) Fundamental Valuation (EBO)

Inputs

EPS forecasts (FY1 & FY2): $5.66 & $6.19

Long-term growth rate: 9.50%

Book value /share:

Book value: $164,850 million

# of shares outstanding: 1.65 million

Book value / share: $66.61

Dividend payout ratio: 0.00%

Next fiscal year end: 2013

Current fiscal month: 3

Target ROE: 2.35%

Output

Above normal growth period chosen: 2 years

EBO valuation: $96.61

Sensitivity Analysis

EBO valuation would be:

BRK.B PARAMETERS FY1 FY2 Ltg

EPS Fore casts 5.66 6.19 9.50%

Book value /share (last fye ) 66.61

Discount Rate 6.31%

Divide nd Payout Ratio (POR) 0.00%

Ne xt Fsc Ye ar e nd 2013

Curre nt Fsc Mth (1 to 12) 3

Targe t ROE (industry avg .) 2.35%

Ye ar 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Long-term EPS Growth Rate (Ltg) 0.0950 0.0950 0.0950 0.0950 0.0950

Forecasted EPS 5.66 6.19 6.78 7.43 8.13 8.90 9.75

Beg. of year BV/Shr 66.606 72.261 78.454 85.235 92.660 100.790 109.693

Implied ROE 0.086 0.086 0.087 0.088 0.088 0.089

ROE (Beg. ROE, from EPS forecasts) 0.085 0.086 0.086 0.087 0.088 0.088 0.089 0.076 0.063 0.050 0.037 0.024

Abnormal ROE (ROE-k) 0.022 0.023 0.023 0.024 0.025 0.025 0.026 0.013 0.000 -0.013 -0.027 -0.040

growth rate for B (1-POR)*(ROEt-1) 0.000 0.085 0.086 0.086 0.087 0.088 0.088 0.089 0.076 0.063 0.050 0.037

Compounded growth 1.000 1.085 1.178 1.280 1.391 1.513 1.647 1.793 1.929 2.050 2.152 2.231

growth*AROE 0.022 0.025 0.027 0.031 0.034 0.038 0.042 0.023 -0.001 -0.028 -0.057 -0.088

required rate (k) 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063 0.063

Compound discount rate 1.063 1.130 1.201 1.277 1.358 1.443 1.535 1.631 1.734 1.844 1.960 2.084

div. payout rate (k) 0.000

Add to P/B PV(growth*AROE) 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.03 -0.04

Cum P/B 1.02 1.04 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.14 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.17 1.14 1.10

Add: Perpetuity

beyond current yr (Assume this yr's AROE forever) 0.33 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.22 -0.01 -0.24 -0.46 -0.67

Total P/B (P/B if we stop est. this period) 1.35 1.39 1.43 1.47 1.51 1.56 1.61 1.40 1.18 0.93 0.68 0.42

Implie d price 91.06 93.79 96.61 99.51 102.49 105.57 108.74 94.99 79.55 62.94 45.78 28.68

Che ck:

Beg. BV/Shr 66.61 72.26 78.45 85.23 92.66 100.79 109.69 119.44 128.50 136.55 143.33 148.58

Implied EPS 5.66 6.19 6.78 7.43 8.13 8.90 9.75 9.05 8.06 6.78 5.24 3.49

Implied EPS growth 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 -0.071 -0.110 -0.159 -0.227 -0.334

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$102.49 if changing above normal growth period to 5 years

$99.27 if changing growth rate from mean (consensus) to the highest estimate 11.00%

$90.53 if changing growth rate from mean (consensus) to the lowest estimate 6.00%

$74.12 if changing discount rate to 8.00%

$96.61 if changing target ROE to 8%

I can’t find information about EPS forecast on Reuteurs.com, so I use Morningstar Direct

and Yahoo Finance data for EPS forecast for FY1 and long-term growth rate. There is no EPS

forecast for FY2, so I calculated it by multiplying the EPS forecast for FY1 and the long-term

growth rate. All of the data is not very accurate in my opinion because there are too few

analysts who provided estimates. The company is very complicated; therefore I think it’s very

hard to come up with a good estimate. All the big decisions are made by Warren Buffett and he

usually makes big investments. If one occurs, the long term growth rate of the whole company

will change significantly. That’s why I chose a two years abnormal growth.

Data for calculating discount rate: risk free rate is 2.71%, beta is 0.53, and market risk

premium is 9.5%.

When I change the abnormal growth rate to five years, the implied stock price is higher

and closer to the current price. There is no high or low range of the long term growth rate, so I

chose the numbers myself. Even with a significant change in long term growth rate, the stock

price doesn’t change much. The stock price is not sensitive to the industry target ROE. The stock

price is very sensitive to the discount rate. In conclusion, the stock price is sensitive to only the

discount rate.

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Section (D) Relative Valuation

Some data are not available on Reuteurs.com. I either use Morningstar Direct or my

own judgment for those missing data of Berkshire Hathaway. For calculation of mean FY2

Earnings estimate and mean long-term growth rate, please refer back to section C.

As discussing in Section B, Berkshire Hathaway is a conglomerate with a lot of unrelated

business. Therefore, it’s very hard to find competitors. The four companies I chose are all

conglomerate that have insurance as part of their business. The Blackstone Group operates

globally in five segments: private equity, real estate, hedge fund solutions, credit businesses,

and financial advisory. General Electric Company operates as a technology and financial services

company worldwide GE has five different business segments: energy infrastructure, healthcare,

transportation, home and business solutions, and GE capital. Lowes Companies is a home

improvement retailer and installation/repair services. The Carlyle Group specializes in

investment such as equity investment, defense, aerospace, healthcare, technology, real estate,

transportation.

Berkshire Hathaway has a very high FY2 earnings compare to other companies. As I

mentioned earlier, all of these companies are not direct competitors because they all have

business in many different areas. This also makes it very hard to estimate these companies;

therefore I don’t think the exceptional high estimate earnings of Berkshire is relevant.

Some of the competitors’ data are not available, so there are less implied prices

provided. The price estimates from forward P/E is much closed to the current stock price, and

the other two derived from PEG and P/S give a wide range. Since the estimate long-term

growth rate is not reliable, I think the implied price for forward P/E would be the most relevant

as a valuation for Berkshire.

BRK.B

Mean FY2

Earnings Estimate Forward Mean LT PEG P/B ROE Value P/S P/CF

Ticker Name Mkt Cap Current Price (next fiscal year) P/E Growth Rate (MRQ) 5 yr ave Ratio TTM TTM

1 BX The Blackstone Group LP 21,006.24$ 18.74$ 2.67$ 7.02 13.60% 0.52 -- -- #VALUE! 5.23 21.21

2 GE General Electric Co 241,709.20$ 23.27$ 1.84$ 12.65 11.00% 1.15 1.97 11.88% 0.17 1.64 --

3 LOW Lowe's Companies Inc 41,151.94$ 37.39$ 2.53$ 14.78 16.17% 0.91 2.89 12.09% 0.24 0.81 11.81

4 CG Carlyle Group LP 9,696.00$ 32.35$ 3.41$ 9.49 28.70% 0.33 0.13 -- #VALUE! 3.26 --

BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Inc 244,921.80$ 100.80$ 9.75$ 10.34 9.50% 1.09 1.33 7.55% 0.18 1.57 12.94

Implied Price based on: P/E PEG P/B Value P/S P/CF

1 BX The Blackstone Group LP $68.43 $47.80 #VALUE! #VALUE! $335.79 $165.22

2 GE General Electric Co $123.31 $106.49 $149.31 $94.89 $105.29 #VALUE!

3 LOW Lowe's Companies Inc $144.09 $84.66 $219.03 $136.78 $52.01 $92.00

4 CG Carlyle Group LP $92.50 $30.62 $9.85 #VALUE! $209.30 #VALUE!

High $144.09 $106.49 #VALUE! #VALUE! $335.79 #VALUE!

Low $68.43 $30.62 #VALUE! #VALUE! $52.01 #VALUE!

Median $107.90 $66.23 #VALUE! #VALUE! $157.30 #VALUE!

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Section (E) Revenue and Earnings Estimates

Historical Surprises

Sales and Profit Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Earnings and Dividend Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Estimates vs Actual Estimate Actual Difference Surprise %

SALES (in millions)

Quarter Ending Sep-12 39,044.40 41,050.00 2,005.65 5.14

Quarter Ending Jun-12 36,807.00 38,546.00 1,739.00 4.72

Quarter Ending Mar-12 39,154.00 38,147.00 1,007.00 -2.57

Quarter Ending Dec-11 37,306.00 37,955.00 649.00 1.74

Quarter Ending Sep-11 36,560.00 33,739.00 2,821.00 -7.72

Earnings (per share)

Quarter Ending Dec-12 1,755.12 1,704.00 51.12 -2.91

Quarter Ending Sep-12 2,062.56 2,057.00 5.56 -0.27

Quarter Ending Jun-12 1,776.64 2,252.00 475.36 26.76

Quarter Ending Mar-12 1,779.89 1,615.00 164.89 -9.26

Quarter Ending Dec-11 1,850.67 1,615.00 235.67 -12.73

The company doesn’t have any clear pattern of surprising the market. There is a mixture

of both positive and negative surprises. The earnings surprises are more notable. The stock

price shot up after the positive surprise of second quarter of 2012.

Consensus Estimates Analysis

Sales and Profit Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Earnings and Dividend Figures in US Dollar (USD)

# of Estimates Mean High Low 1 Year

Ago

SALES (in millions)

Quarter Ending Mar-13 1 40,591.00 40,591.00 40,591.00 38,573.00

Quarter Ending Jun-13 1 40,931.00 40,931.00 40,931.00 40,362.00

Year Ending Dec-13 1 165,344.00 165,344.00 165,344.00 162,680.00

Year Ending Dec-14 1 171,553.00 171,553.00 171,553.00 --

Earnings (per share)

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Quarter Ending Mar-13 1 1,946.00 1,946.00 1,946.00 1,868.00

Quarter Ending Jun-13 1 2,134.00 2,134.00 2,134.00 2,036.00

Year Ending Dec-13 3 8,593.58 8,675.00 8,483.18 8,194.33

Year Ending Dec-14 2 9,161.00 9,229.00 9,093.00 --

Compare to one year ago, both sales and earnings estimates are trending upward. There

is only a few analysts who provide these estimates. That’s why there is almost no difference

from the consensus. There is no long-term growth estimate on Reuteurs.com and I only found

one estimate on Morningstar Direct. I think the company’s complex business structure is the

cause of the lack of estimates.

Consensus Estimates Trend

Sales and Profit Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Earnings and Dividend Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Current 1 Week

Ago

1 Month

Ago

2 Month

Ago

1 Year

Ago

SALES (in millions)

Quarter Ending Mar-13 40,591.00 40,591.00 38,375.00 38,369.00 38,573.00

Quarter Ending Jun-13 40,931.00 40,931.00 40,712.00 40,704.00 40,362.00

Year Ending Dec-13 165,344.00 165,344.00 162,885.00 162,898.00 162,680.00

Year Ending Dec-14 171,553.00 171,553.00 170,670.00 170,657.00 --

Earnings (per share)

Quarter Ending Mar-13 1,946.00 1,946.00 1,941.00 1,952.00 1,868.00

Quarter Ending Jun-13 2,134.00 2,134.00 2,055.00 2,072.00 2,036.00

Sales Difference from High Difference from Low

Quarter Ending Mar-13 0.00% 0.00%

Quarter Ending Jun-13 0.00% 0.00%

Year Ending Dec-13 0.00% 0.00%

Year Ending Dec-14 0.00% 0.00%

Earnings Difference from High Difference from Low

Quarter Ending Mar-13 0.00% 0.00%

Quarter Ending Jun-13 0.00% 0.00%

Year Ending Dec-13 0.95% 1.28%

Year Ending Dec-14 0.74% 0.74%

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Quarter Ending Dec-13 8,593.58 8,593.58 8,372.39 8,406.77 8,194.33

Quarter Ending Dec-14 9,161.00 9,161.00 9,000.50 9,092.50 --

Both the sales and earnings consensus estimates are continuously trending up from one

year ago. The trend is notable for all the first quarter, second quarter and the whole year 2013.

This shows that the analysts are getting more confident about Berkshire’s short-term

performance. This is bullish sign for the company stock. Since the estimates for 2014 are

provided recently, therefore there is no major change.

Estimates Revisions Summary

Last Week Last 4 Weeks

Number Of Revisions: Up Down Up Down

Revenue

Quarter Ending Mar-13 0 0 0 0

Quarter Ending Jun-13 0 0 0 0

Year Ending Dec-13 0 0 0 0

Year Ending Dec-14 0 0 0 0

Earnings

Quarter Ending Mar-13 0 0 0 0

Quarter Ending Jun-13 0 0 0 0

Year Ending Dec-13 0 0 0 0

Year Ending Dec-14 0 0 0 0

In the last four weeks, there was no change in analysts’ estimates.

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Section (F) Analysts’ Recommendations

1-5 Linear Scale Current 1 Month

Ago

2 Month

Ago

3 Month

Ago

(1) BUY 1 1 1 1

(2) OUTPERFORM 1 2 2 3

(3) HOLD 1 1 1 1

(4) UNDERPERFORM 0 0 0 0

(5) SELL 0 0 0 0

No Opinion 0 0 0 0

Mean Rating 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

From the last three months, there is no big change of analyst recommendation except

one analyst dropped out two months ago and another analyst one month ago. Besides that, the

mean rating stays 2.0 the whole period. Since there are too few analyst recommendations and

they are spread out, I don’t think this is a good source of estimation.

Revision Date

Upgrade or Downgrade

Current Recommendation

Previous Recommendation

Firm Last Revision

The most recent revision date

The earliest revision date in the last two months

In the recent two months, there was no analyst upgrade or downgrade.

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Section (G) Institutional Ownership

Net institutions has been decreasing ownership but not significant. The percentage of

institutional ownership is pretty low. I think the reason for this is because a large portion of

shares belong to Warren Buffett – Berkshire Hathaway’s Chairman and CEO. The list of more

than five percent ownership on the other hand is a bullish indication. Aside from Bill Gates’

charity organization, the other three are all well-known investment firms. I think the presence

of these companies show their faith in Berkshire’s future growth.

BRK.B

Ownership Activity # of Holders % Beg. Holders Shares % Shares

Shares Outstanding 919,071 100.00%

# of Holders/Tot Shares Held 701 103.09% 170,120 18.51%

# New Positions 51 7.50%

# Closed Positions 30 4.41%

# Increased Positions 144 21.18%

# Decreased Positions 179 26.32%

Beg. Total Inst. Positions 680 100.00% 166,221 18.09%

# Net Buyers/3 Mo. Net Chg -35 44.58% 3,899 0.42%

Ownership Information % Outstanding

Top 10 Institutions % Ownership 31.90%

Mutual Fund % Ownership 0.63%

Float % 0.00%

> 5% Ownership

Holder Name % Outstanding Report Date

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation 7.90% 12/31/2012

State Street Global Advisor (US) 6.90% 12/31/2012

BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. 5.50% 12/31/2012

The Vanguard Group, Inc. 5.00% 12/31/2012

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Section (H) Short Interest

There is no information about Berkshire Hathaway’s short interest on Nasdaq.com and I

couldn’t find it anywhere else.

Share statistics

Avg Vol Avg Vol Shares Float (3 month) (10 day) Outstanding

4,590,950 4,922,330 1.66M 1.28M

Shares Short Short Ratio Short % of Float Shares Short

(as of Jan 31, 2013) (as of Jan 31, 2013) (as of Jan 31, 2013) (prior month)

10.42M 2.20 1.10% 12.62M

Both the short ratio and short percentage of float are low. Based on these data, the

market is bullish about Berkshire Hathaway.

Settlement Date Short Interest Average Daily # of

Days to cover Shares Volume

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Section (I) Stock Charts

A three months price chart

Looking at the price chart, Blackstone stock is doing very well and outperforms both the

sector and the market. The company’s 2012 result is very solid; I think that’s why the stock

price has been increasing since January. Both Berkshire and General Electric also outperform

both sector and the market.

A one year price chart

In the one year period, Berkshire has the highest return while Blackstone doesn’t look as

good as in the three month period chart.

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A five year price chart

All stocks have a deep drop back in the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, they all come

back up. General Electric hasn’t fully recovered and has a negative return. Berkshire’s stock

price has been consistently increased and less volatile than both Blackstone and the financial

sector.

10 and 50-day moving average

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There were a death cross back in November 2012and a golden cross in January 2013.

From then on, the short term moving average has been trending above the long term moving

average. The Relative Strength Index is currently about 65 which indicates the stock is almost

on the overvalue level.

50 and 200-day moving average

There was a death cross back in late 2011 and a golden cross in January 2012. The cause of the

death cross was probably the financial crisis and the company has been recovered from the beginning of

2012. The RSI is currently about 60 which indicates the stock is at its fair value.

References

http://finance.yahoo.com/

http://www.reuters.com/

http://www.nasdaq.com/

www.berkshirehathaway.com

Morningstar Direct

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