Cindy Carver Real Estate Market Presentation

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www.cyndicarver.johnlscott.com1

www.cyndicarver.johnlscott.com

MARKET OVERVIEW AND

2015 FORECAST

By: Skylar Olsen, PhD

Senior Economist

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About Zillow Real Estate Research

VISIT ZILLOW RESEARCH:

www.zillow.com/research

In-depth research, monthly reports and interactive visuals

• Home Values

• For-sale Inventory

• Home Sales

• Forecasts

• And much more……


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HOUSING MARKET

OVERVIEW

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The housing market is still recovering……..

Peak to trough Peak to current Year-over-year

-22.5% -9.6% 6.0%

Zillow Home Value Index – U.S. Median Home Value


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Although the recovery is slowing down to “normal”


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Many metro areas are seeing high appreciation, but at half the rates seen in 2013


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Home would you like it 7 years in Seattle still down 11% from peak

Peak to trough Peak to current Year-over-year

-31.7% -11.2% 6.3%


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The slowdown phenomenon is present in Seattle


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Eastside and South King County saw large gains

City Annual

home value

change

Seattle 6.1%

Tacoma 5.9%

Renton 7.6%

Bellevue 8.7%

Everett 5.6%

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HEADWINDS FOR

HOMEBUYERS

Three trends affecting the housing market

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1. For-sale inventory has increased nationwide, but remains flat in the Seattle metro


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2. Nationally, new and existing home sales are low


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3. One in six homeowners is underwater

Negative equity remains widespread, 17% nationally


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Nationally, 35% of homeowners lack equity to sell

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Today, underwater homes are less common, but still a problem

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Where are underwater homeowners in Seattle?

CityNegative

equity

Tacoma 29%

Spanaway 34%

Lakewood 26%

Auburn 24%

Everett 24%

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Most underwater homes are entry level homes, less homes are available for first-time buyers

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AFFORDABILITY AND

FUTURE BUYERS

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Currently, interest rates are very low, but expected to rise eventually


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How will rising rate affect affordability?


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Low rates = affordability on buyers’ side in Seattle


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High rents: a barrier to savings?


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Influx of rental demand


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Growth in rental households by structure type


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Coping strategy for expensive rents


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WHO ARE THE FUTURE

HOMEBUYERS?

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Young renters optimistic about future ownership

83 percent of millennial renters are “confident” or “somewhat

confident” that they will eventually buy a home.


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Millennials want to own homes……..


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But aren’t quite ready to start buying right now

Over the next year, millennials will emerge as the majority of new

homebuyers, surpassing Generation X.


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Millennials delayed


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Millennials with full-time employment are already homeowners


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Labor market for millennials


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WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2015

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Home values forecasted rise, at slower rates in 2015


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One-year forecast for 2015 Seattle metro area

City

Annual

home value

change

Seattle 4.8%

Tacoma 4.7%

Renton 5.5%

Bellevue 6.0%

Everett 5.0%


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Bold Housing Predictions for 2015

• Homebuyers will have more negotiation power in 2015

– A less frothy housing market means a more balanced market. Slowing appreciation,

more inventory and the return of price cuts mean that buyers will have more choices and

won’t have to move as fast.

• Millennials will overtake Generation X as the largest group of

homebuyers

– Millennials have been delaying marriage and having children, but that doesn’t mean they

don’t have a desire to buy.

• Builders will begin constructing more, less expensive homes

– Builders will stop concentrating on the upper tier of the market and will begin to build

more entry level homes.


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Bold Housing Predictions for 2015

• Homebuyers will have more negotiation power in 2015

– A less frothy housing market means a more balanced market. Slowing appreciation,

more inventory and the return of price cuts mean that buyers will have more choices and

won’t have to move as fast.

• Millennials will overtake Generation X as the largest group of

homebuyers

– Millennials have been delaying marriage and having children, but that doesn’t mean they

don’t have a desire to buy.

• Builders will begin constructing more, less expensive homes

– Builders will stop concentrating on the upper tier of the market and will begin to build

more entry level homes.


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Find data for your local area on Zillow.com


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Thanks To For Providing This Presentation

Date post:	17-Jul-2015
Category:	Real Estate
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