autonomous global gothenburg

— a scenerio for moving gothenburg towards semi self-sufficiency

c i t i e s b e y o n d o i l

gothenburg sweden

Autonomous Global GothenburgGothenburg, 2008© Gotheburg University, Chalmers and the authorsEditors: Erika Andén, Per Blomqvist, Gary Cullen, and Elisabeth Undén,Co-editors: Gloria Alcázar and David Gavin“June 18, 2050” by Erika Andén

Gloria AlcázarErika AndénSara AnderssonGiorgia AnnoviEva AronssonMartin BergPia BergenholtzPer BlomqvistDelphine BouetElina CuéllarGary CullenLucia FerrariMoa FestinDavid GavinKarin GildebrandNiklas HillSandra JenevallMaria KarlssonChelsey LairdMaria MagnussonAlba MartinKristina NordfeldtFrancesca RotundoLisen RunstenElin SlätmoAnna StarkClaudia TerànAlisa TosawatKhué TranRichard WaernMagnus WennergrenLu XuJosefin Åhman

Ulf ErnstssonJoanna GregorowiczIngrid JohanssonPer KnutssonMartin Bae PedersonKnut StrömbergRoger TrancikElisabeth UndénLena Viktorsson

Participants

Advisors

ProgramsEnvironmental ScienceEnvironmental & Social ScienceGlobal StudiesMarine BiologySustainable Energy SystemsUrban Design & Development

table of contents

june 18, 2050

introduction

definition of sustainable development

june 18, 2050

1

3

5

7

scenario9

conclusion18

June 18, 205019

bibliography21

executive summarya.

gothenburg siteThe Autonomous Global Gothenburg project investigated possibilities for a sustainable planned city district within the Gothenburg region by the year 2050 creating a scenario for how the Gothenburg region and the city district of Angered can develop towards a sustainable society. This was done with the prerequisite of transforming the region into a fossil fuel free society.

With 500,000 inhabitants Gothenburg is Sweden’s second largest city. Gothenburg is an old port and naval town, situated on the West coast, with the largest port in Scandinavia. The Gothenburg region with its 900,000 inhabitants consists of 13 municipalities located around the city of Gothenburg.

Angered is a satellite settlement, envisioned as a part of the Gothenburg city expansion plan of the 1960s and was built in the 1960s and 1970s in a rural area outside the city center. According to commonly held prejudices, Angered is a socially problematic area. It consists mostly of apartment buildings mostly located in close proximity to forests and parks.

executive summarysemi self-sufficiencyTo be more sustainable the region will be made semi self-sufficient. This will be beneficial to the goal of social sustainability within the ecological frame. In other words, the Gothenburg region must exist both as part of the greater globalized world but also retain more of its independence from larger networks. Maintaining a certain level of autonomy by producing more goods, energy, fuel and food locally, creating jobs and secutity while reducing energy needs.

energyIn order to remain within the frame, fossil fuels and uranium will not be employed at all. Instead, the main solutions for sustainable energy production will be the reduction of per capita energy consumption, the employment of large scale continuous hydro power production, an increase large scale wind and wave power production capacity, the use of waste and waste energy for the production of heat, electricity and fuel, and the use of roofs, facades and other surfaces for the small scale production of heat, electricity and biomass. This network of small-scale production sites will be a major contributor to the energy system.

agricultureUrban and peri-urban agriculture will be used as a complement to rural agriculture to increase food production substancially. Urban areas will feature a variety of agricultural activities, which will provide

better access to food, income and a food consciousness among the inhabitants in comparison to the present situation. The variety of community, allotment, rooftop, vertical, and balcony gardens along with fruit trees will offer greening of the dense urban dwellings.

urban designTo tackle segregation we propose a mixed function city, relevant for people of different backgrounds and from different parts of the city taking into account the connections between different areas in the densification plans of the suburban areas.

Improving connections within the area of Angered is one of the main focuses in improving Angered’s social situation. An esplanade has been proposed to connect several of Angered’s sub-areas and has been used as a guiding element for urban growth.

transportationAn impoved public transport system is essential to keep energy use down and to increase interaction between inhabitants. For Angered ,a PRT system is suggested, Personal Rapid Transit is an on demand railbound, efficient transport system that will improve the internal transportation. The PRT system will complement the tram, bus and train to improve efficiency. The most highly prioritized modes of travel, however, will be walking and bicycling as they are the most energy efficient and contribute to a socially sustainable society.

evaluationEcological footprints have been used as local and regional indicator for ecological sustainablity. An ecological footprint measures how much biologically productive land is used to produce the resources that are consumed by a population and to conversely how much land is required to absorb the waste created by the same. Ecological footprints are measured in global hectares (gha) which are equal to the productivity of one hectare using the average productivity of the 11.2 billion biologically productive hectares existing on earth (Göteborgs Stad, miljö, 2007). This number is then divided by the world’s population. Presently this allows for 1.8 gha/person. The current ecological footprint of the world population, however, is 2.2 gha/person, implying that our use resources is not sustainable. For the year 2050 it is estimated that the population of the globe will be 9 billion, meaning that each person must sustain on 1.2 gha.

Despite the solutions suggested in the scenarios, sustainability within the ecological frame will not be reached by 2050, according to ecological footprint evaluation. Nevertheless, the proposals made will have a large impact on resource use and are possible to carry out within present conditions. If adopted the proposals made here will contribute to a decrease in the footprint, from 5.2 to 2.1 gha/person. It would, however, be possible to achieve even better results by adopting even more drastic steps to reach the sustainable level of 1.2 gha/person.

The project definition for sustainable development focuses on the goal of creating and maintaining a favorable life experience for a given population without consuming more of nature then nature can renew, in the process. This environmental dimension is envisioned as a frame in which all activities must take place. The tools used to achieve this goal are seen to exist within the frame and are economic, political, technological, educational, and design related.

our definition of sustainable development

1

June 18, 2050

The peTals swirl Thick off The Trees like snowflakes Through The air. i walk slowly, pausing every now and Then To caTch The sofT scenT of lilac or honeysuckle off a mild breeze. Spring has finally arrived in Gothenburg and in its wake the sun has returned bringing a new sense of hope and awakening to the city. People trace the paths through the woods as I do soaking in the warmth and sun on their way out to the fields of vegetables that fill the valley beyond Angered Centrum or to the ‘pert’ stop just a few steps from the edge of the wood.

Dawn has only recently broken on this mid June morning, and I find myself en route to work. It’s a short walk from home to the university annex so I amuse

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myself by taking different routes; this morning it’s the path through the garden wood. Yesterday I crossed the knoll before turning down into the valley so I could take in the entire stretch of snap pea and cucumber fields that extend beyond the annex and the agro-industrial complexes that surround it.

The path narrows as it nears the campus’ edge and I follow it around a final pine crossing from the dirt and pebbles onto the rounded paving stones that eventually give way to an expanse of brick and concrete. I wend my way across the square past an early student who sits perched on the guiding wall, his nose buried in the middle of a slightly worn copy of “Theories and Techniques in Urban Agriculture.” For

a moment, I entertain the idea of asking him how he likes Basic Agricultural Theory, but before I even have the opportunity to finish the thought I hear my name ring out and echo across the open square. The student looks up from his book in mild concern, but now I ignore him and hasten towards the Annex door.

“Professor, professor!” Bjorn, my T.A. is out of breath and looking disturbingly flustered, “Professor Johansson, you have to come quick, it’s already all over the newsfeeds.” He barely finishes his thought before he’s moving again, this time in the direction from which he’d come. “And the municipal board,” he continues, “they’ve already called. Did you turn off your phone again?” Bjorn glances back at me knowingly but I

remain impassive. “They need you in the city as soon as possible, but I think you should take a look at this first.”

Bjorn takes a left out of the gleaming hall and leads me into a small office. I’m not sure whom it belongs to, but the single framed pencil drawing of a turn of the century tractor and the perfectly rowed pens lying out on the desk aren’t giving up their secrets to me. I look up at the screen on the far wall and watch Bjorn type in the access code to the university feed wondering what sort of event could possibly be of such importance that it would merit a summons from the board.

Then there it is and suddenly I realize why.

3

introduction

The task of this project is to create a scenario for how the Gothenburg region and the city district of Angered can develop towards a sustainable society by 2050. This research based foray into urban planning in western Sweden’s Gothenburg region was viewed from a sustainable fossil-fuel free, future perspective.

This project was conducted as a transdiscipilary case study featuring students and advisers from a variety of academic backgrounds, including natural sciences, social sciences, engineering and urban design and architecture.

The project was conducted on two levels, macro and micro, to show both the potential for interaction and integration between the different levels, but also to identify important local differences and preconditions within the Gothenburg region. The 13 municipalities that constitute the Gothenburg region make up the macro level, which involves issues related to regional development. Angered represents the micro level, which involves issues related to local urban development.

Angered is a satellite settlement that is a part of the municipality of Gothenburg. The concrete outcome of a political strategic development plan, Angered was envisioned as a part of the city expansion plans in the 1960s and was built in the 1960s and 1970s in a rural area outside the city center. According to commonly held prejudices, Angered is a socially problematic area. It consists mostly of apartment buildings situated within a close proximity to areas of wild nature.

During the research phase of the project workshops, interviews and project exhibitions were conducted with a variety of municiple and local stakeholders. These different methods allowed the public to share their thoughts, opinions and visions for local development and to view and critique the proposed scenarios created by the case study. Information gathered in early workshops was integrated into the planning of later parts of the study, and ultimately affected the final scenarios.

The group process was also guided by a number of different working methods, such as:

Rotating Chairpeople, that together formed a coor-dinating group.

Meetings with open discussion, for strategic deci-sions, delegation and planning.

Sharing of responsibilities and tasks among students and among advisors and experts.

Clear and respected responsibilities.

Consistant reporting of all deliverables produced by individual students.

Continuous and systematic documentation, filing and report-writing.

Dynamic and cross-cutting groups.

work process

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In an effort to move the Gothenburg region to a place of optimal sustainability by 2050 it is essential that the region achieve a state of semi self-sufficiency. In other words, the Gothenburg region must exist both as part of the greater globalized world but also retain more of its independence from the larger networks. Maintaining a certain level of autonomy will allow the region to produce more goods, energy, fuel and food locally creating jobs and reducing energy needs. By improving the production capacity of the local networks for a portion of the region’s consumables Gothenburg can lessen not only its demand on the global distribution networks and its ecological footprint, but also increase the security of the region’s supply chain. A similar move will also be implemented on a micro scale, giving each district or municipality in the region semi-autonomy from the whole, both as a means of reducing their impact on the environment but also to increase the relative level of security of their supply systems. This innovation will tie together a number of more common solutions both old and new to create a sustainable system or internal network that the region and the districts within it can depend on during times of disruption in the global network. This system is modular in that directed solutions can be added to or removed from the system at any time to increase its self-sufficiency and effectiveness.

semi self-sufficiency

Macro

Meso

Micro

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Our definition of sustainable development is twofold and focuses both on society’s capacity to create and maintain a favorable life experience for its population and well as the long-term ecological sustainability of the planet in terms of this experience. Instead of seeing these two dimensions as equally weighted portions of sustainable development this definition views social sustainability as the main goal of sustainable development, while ecological sustainability is boundary within which social sustainability must remain. In order to reach and maintain the goal five major tools are employed, they are politics, technology, education, design and economy.

The frame represents the ecological system, which enables all human activities. For ecological sustainability to be achieved, society must not demand more of nature than nature itself can renew. In other words, the scenarios are created with the aim of achieving a socially sustainable region, none of the tools employed to achieve social sustainability should cause the region to become ecologically unstable, as this would be detrimental to the achievement and maintenance of the goal.

frameTo assess if the frame is functioning as intended, the concept of an ecological footprint was chosen as an evaluation tool. Although it does not give a full assessment, ecological footprints provide quantitative information about the use of land and resources and can be used to compare districts.

An ecological footprint measures how much biologically productive land is used to produce the resources that are consumed by a given an individual or population and also how much land is required to absorb the waste created by the same. Ecological footprints are measured in global hectares (gha) which are equal to the productivity of one hectare using the average productivity of the 11.2 billion biologically productive hectares existing on earth (Göteborgs Stad, miljö, 2007). When divided amongst the world’s current population one finds that there are approximately 1.8 gha to support each person on earth today. The ecological footprint of the world population is presently 2.2 gha/person, implying that our use of ecosystem’s services and resources is not at a sustainable level. In 2050 it is estimated that the population earth will be 9 billion, lowering the amount of land per person to 1.2 gha.

The ecological footprint for Angered in 2008 is 5.2 gha/person. This is comparable to Sweden’s average of 6.1 gha/person and North America’s 9.4 gha/person (Global Footprint Network, 2006). The model used to calculate the footprint for Angered has been created by the Environmental Department in Gothenburg City (Göteborgs Stad miljö, 2008).

goalSocial sustainability, or the capacity of a society to create and maintain a favorable life experience for its population, is thought to be acheivable through the following sub-goals: Security includes food, water, economic and physical security, or the maintenance of a certain level of resilience within these areas, with resilience being defined as the ability to withstand or recover from disturbance or disaster in the system.Safety refers to one’s personal safety in terms of crime rates, traffic safety etc, and to an individual’s perception of safety in her/his surroundings.Public health is the availability of, and access to,

our definition of sustainable development

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an affordable health care system, as well as, the actual physical health of a population and access to information regarding health and health care.Participation in society alludes to the feeling that one has relevance in society and in the actual act of participation. Participation in this sense means being involved in decisions that affect the individual and her/his society, and even more simply interacting with other community members, effectively creating a social structure.Equality is defined as equal opportunities in relation to all demographics, including but not limited to gender, socioeconomic, cultural, ethnic, sexuality, disability, and age groups.Integration refers to the mixing, both physically and socially, of the above-mentioned demographic groups.Satisfactory living environment alludes to the contentment with and respect for one’s surroundings.Potential for self-realization is about having access to resources believed to contribute to self-realization, such as education, leisure activities, employment opportunities, funding etc.

The sub-goals have been placed in a hierarchical relation, based on Abraham Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs (Maslow, 1943), which is often expressed as a pyramid where the bottom needs are the most crucial for healthy development, and the higher needs become more important as the lower needs are met. If the factors fitted into the lower layers of the hierarchy are achieved, they will form the conditions necessary for the potential for self-realization to be achieved. (Simons et al, 1987)

toolsIn order to fulfill the mentioned sub-goals of social sustainability, five categories of tools are suggested. These tools are to be used within the boundaries set by the ecological frame or in order to maintain the boundaries of the ecological frame.

Political tools: Political decisions with the purpose of creating changes to reach a goal, such as laws, restrictions and incitements. Examples include legislation against discrimination or the establishment of a nature reserve.

Educational tools: Educational measures aimed at raising the knowledge level and stimulating life-long learning within all demographic groups. Examples include museums or education on equality in the workplace.

Economic tools: Economically oriented decisions and actions resulting in consequences to the economy of a society or an individual. Examples include congestion charges or emission licenses for industry and companies.

Technological tools: Technological solutions aiming to increase the possibility of reaching the goal without exceeding the frame. Examples include low-energy cars or communication systems which decrease the need for transportation, such as video conferencing.

Design tools: Creative solutions aimed at increasing the sustainability of products and structures. Examples include urban planning and architectural design.

7

The ‘perT’ sTop is deserTed when i arrive so i push The call buTTon and waTch as The shiny silver car zooms To meeT me. It’s slightly too cool in the cabin and the seats at the front end of the cab bear a bright tag of the word “Fututre!” though I am at a loss as to why. Puzzled, I slide into a forward facing seat and choose my destination on the automatic touch screen in the center console. The door closes with a satisfying “pop” and my mind begins to wander back to the office where Bjorn is hard at work contacting the list of names I jotted off for him before leaving. I glance down at my phone hoping he’ll update me soon.

The ‘pert’ speeds along the rail, whooshing past other stops with their waiting ‘perts’ and tired looking passengers, ferrying me directly to Hjallbo and depositing me rather uneventfully on a raised platform above a silently waiting line of trams. I rush down the steps and onto a 9 tram to the city center.

Brunnsparken is a bustle of activity even at this early hour so I’m forced to people slalom through the crowd

June 18, 2050

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The upper floors are airier then those below with glass enclosed offices that allow daylight to spill into the halls painting long beams of gold on the white marble floor. My eyes follow the streaks of light back the windows where small gardens hang, growing colorful heritage lettuces that ripple leisurely in the early morning breeze.

“The council will want every assurance that the farms can deliver as promised.” Lena is looking stressed again and I gather it is because we’ve finally reached the meeting room.

“Don’t worry, Lena.” I reply, “I’ve overseen them for some time. They will yield enough.”

Lena looks less convinced then I’d like, but before I have a chance to say more she’s opened the door to the meeting room meaning any further words on my part would become the sudden subject of discussion for the whole room and I’m not sure I’m ready for such scrutiny.

The air in the room is thick; tense. Torsten is indeed pacing in a manner that suggests another cup of coffee might be his end. Beyond him Vi sits silently, her hands clasped tightly in a gesture of forced meditation. Felix and Joa seem almost impassive but the ticking of Joa’s leg and the slight furrow of Felix’s brow suggest that they aren’t nearly as calm as they might wish. And then there is Anjali who, though held to be outspoken and rather opinionated, isn’t betraying much of mood at all, that is until the door snaps shut behind me then she looks at me and smiles.

“Yan, thank you for coming.” Anjali is calm, almost unmoved. “As you may have heard my colleges and I are in something of a predicament. I had a feeling maybe you could help us climb out of it.”

I smile broadly. Anjali’s support is not easily won and I know that now I have it the board will hear my proposal with eager ears.

to make my way to cityhall. Lena is waiting for me on the steps looking harried.

“Yan, thank goodness.” She sighs as I approach. “The council is in upheaval they’re talking about rationing; about shuttering stores.”

I can’t help but smile, this isn’t the first time a large-scale break in the supply chain has brought me to the council, but it seems things have not changed so very much.

“Everything will be fine,” I tell her earnestly. “I have my assistant making the appropriate calls. There shouldn’t be any need to shutter stores. It won’t be a long term solution of course, but we should be able to cover the demands of the city for at least a few weeks.”

“A few weeks, really?” She sounds relieved as she ushers me into the entrance hall. “Can you please explain that to Torsten? He’s been running circles all morning. Honestly, I think one more cup of coffee will put him over the edge.” She smiles weakly at me as we begin climbing the stairs.

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scenario

geographical locationOn the West coast of Sweden, just where the Göta river meets the sea lies Gothenburg, Sweden’s second largest city. Gothenburg is an old port and naval town, its port is the largest in Scandinavia, and therefore an important logistics center. There are approximately 500,000 inhabitants in the city and about 900,000 in the Gothenburg region. Historically, Gothenburg has been a city of big traditional engineering industries, and while much of that remains, in the recent decades the economic importance of softer industries, such as pharmaceutical and information technology has increased. This has created a very visible urban transformation, with some of the old industrial areas being transformed into office spaces and exclusive housing areas.

The Gothenburg region consists of 13 municipalities on the West coast of Sweden. They are located around the city of Gothenburg and share infrastructure and public services. The municipalities vary a great deal from urban to rural. The climate in the region is mild with average daily temperatures varying from -1ºC in the winter to +25ºC during the summer.

The chosen case area for the Gothenburg region is Angered. Angered is a satellite suburb on the urban fringe of Gothenburg city. Rapidly built during the 1960s in an attempt to meet the high housing needs and improve the living standards for people moving into the city. Today, Angered has a bad reputation and is generally considered a problem area, with high unemployment rates and an undeserved reputation for being violent and unsafe. In comparison to Gothenburg, Angered has a young population with a relatively high percentage of immigrants. Since the Gothenburg region wants to grow in both economy and population, the large land resources and close proximity to the city center makes Angered a very interesting site for densification. The challenge, however, is taking advantage of this situation to improve the existing sub-areas of Angered by using the young and multicultural population as an attractive force for continued development.

history of angeredIn 1967 the city of Gothenburg bought an area situated to the northeast of Gothenburg proper, called Angered. This was done as a step in pursuing the so called Million Program, a Swedish political agenda aimed at building one million new residences in a decade in order to accommodate the large number of people migrating to the towns and cities of Sweden. Angered was planned as a satellite settlement, with Angered Centrum, the commercial center, located at the geographical center of the area with six residential areas radiating out from it. The lack of an adequate work force led to the use of highly industrialized building techniques, disregarding the natural landscape. However, in the seventies the demand for housing dropped due to an international economic recession, and the construction of Angered was discontinued with only about one third of the original master plan completed (Göteborg stad, 2007). Today, Angered has about 46,000 inhabitants (Göteborg stad, 2008c) and a younger population than the rest of Gothenburg city. The area is highly multicultural, as generations of immigrants have settled here. Of the population within Angered, 45% of inhabitants were born abroad. (Göteborg City Museum, 2005).

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strengths and weaknesses of angeredAngered has a number of assets, but also some important problems.

strengths:The natural landscape and high quality farmlandsHigh quality apartmentsThe multicultural composition of the population, and multitude of non-profit organizationsVast unused land resources ready for development

weaknesses: Bad reputation: today Angered is considered an unattractive suburb Alienation and segregation: Angered is poorly connected within itself and to Gothenburg city center; Angered is an ethnically segregated areaLack of diversity in housing opportunities: mainly a lack of larger dwellingsHigh unemployment rate: Employment rate in Angered is considerably lower than the average in Gothenburg Poor health: the public health average is lower in Angered in comparison with Gothenburg

population prognosis for 2050The population of Sweden is estimated, by the Swedish government, to be approximately 10.5 million in 2050 (SCB, 2008), as compared with 9.2 million in 2008. Currently, the Gothenburg region is home to approximately 9.7% of the population of Sweden. In accordance with the mild urbanization trend in this scenario it is assumed that the region will be home to approximately 12% of the national population in 2050. Based on these assumptions, the predicted population of the Gothenburg region in 2050 is approximately 1.25 million.

The population of Angered is estimated to 85,000 by the year 2050. This estimate was based on Angered’s ability to support population growth.

In order to have an increase in population that does not cause urban sprawl, and detrimentally affect the conditions for local biodiversity, a specific growth strategy is needed. To that end, the densification of existing settlements and strengthening of the public transport infrastructure are proposed, this should not only allow these development areas to be more accessible

from the city center but also to allow them to be more accessible to each other. Furthermore this strategy should focus on creating codependency between the city centre and the surrounding developments, allowing for a more mixed use of the city. Thus we must incorporate areas with mixed functions and facilitate a decrease in the need for transportation within the suburban areas.

consumption patternsThe years leading up to 2050 will see a change in regional consumption patterns with the consumption of goods reduced and the consumption of services increased. As such the current trend of privately purchasing and owning large quantities of items will likely cease in favor of more collective use and ownership, as large-scale, private consumption costs a great deal of time, money and natural resources. Such a change will therefore mean less economic and ecological stress on the region as a whole.

By sharing items communally, amongst friends and neighbors, people will not only lower their individual

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expenses, but also reduce their ecological footprint. Spending less money on personal ownership will naturally prompt a reduction in the need for economic resources. This will open up the possibility of lower work hours, which should create more time for other activities and thus be a boon to social sustainability.

Maintaining contact with businesses, family and friends from all over the world will continue to retain a high

level of importance. However, the modes of contact will change to some degree since international travel will consume both more time and more financial resources. Thus, much contact in the future will have to be done by means of telecommunication technologies.

integrationToday, the suburbs on the urban fringe are in many cases highly segregated from each other, both ethnically and socio-economically. In some cases there is even segregation within suburbs, with

some secluded, high-status areas in, what are generally considered to be, low status suburbs. To tackle segregation people from different ethnic and socio-economic backgrounds must interact. This makes integration very difficult to measure through statistics alone. An important part of the strategy towards increased integration is to build a mixed function city, relevant for people of different backgrounds from different parts of the city. Thus the densification of

the suburban areas should be undertaken with careful attentions paid to connections between existing areas.

Public spaces will be transformed into natural meeting points through the situation and design of the connection network. This endeavour will be aided by a looped tram system designed to connect the suburbs to each other and to a proposed PRT system. Schools will also be an important tool for social integration, not only because of the educational opportunities they afford the population, but also as a natural meeting place for community members.

connectivityOne of Angered’s main problems is the pattern of segregated residential ‘islands,’ which have poor connection with the main commercial centres. Thus the solution to many of Angered’s current problems involves connecting these segregated residential areas. To this end we propose connecting Angered on multiple levels, strengthening the public transportation infrastructure, densifying existing areas, and creating a new urban spine to connect key areas. The overall solution is to make Angered an area that is not only dependent on Gothenburg, but also

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codependent with Gothenburg. Angered will take advantage of being close to Gothenburg city but have its own niche that also makes Gothenburg dependent on being close to Angered.

Increasing employment is a key point for creating a healthier more economically stable society. In order to improve the socio-economic status in Angered and to better the reputation of the area, a high-tech industry is proposed. The ripple effect of such an industry will create a need for better services in the area, thus creating more of both professional and service-based job opportunities.

The population of Angered is projected to almost double by 2050, therefore living and working locally to reduce commuter traffic will be a common practice. By doing this there is a risk of making the internal segregation within Angered permanent, which makes it important to integrate the new public spaces in such a way as to render them genuinely usable for the entire population

of Angered. To do this an urbanised spine is proposed; this will allow a mix of functions and should create a healthier vibrant urban lifestyle along the series of proposed esplanades between Angered’s sub areas.

esplanadesAn esplanade system is proposed between Angered Centrum, Hammarkullen and Gårdsten. These esplanades will be similar to an inner city street and will be composed of a wide, green, partially paved strip, as well as, two car lanes, and a series of walking and bicycle paths. On street level there will be a mix of commercial, cultural and public service functions. The upper stories of the surrounding buildings will mainly consist of housing.

The goal here is to make the esplanades safe, active and attractive urban spaces with meaningful functions for all of the people living and working in Angered. The reason to gather a mix of functions into these strips is that it will increase the economic base for shopkeepers

and increase the number of people on the esplanades. More people on the street will improve the perceived safety in the area through passive surveillance.

The esplanades will be strategically located just inbetween the new housing and the industrial park. By placing them there they will be populated throughout the day, not soully in the daytime or in the nighttime. The new university and high tech industries will take advantage of being close to a vibrant urban environment, and will help to create the customer base needed to support the services along the esplanades.

transportationIn order to make Angered a natural center for the northeastern suburbs of Gothenburg and to increase the economic strength of Angered, an improved transportation system is required. This proposal focuses on strengthening the public transport systems as opposed to the car based transport systems. There are several reasons for doing this, first, it is questionable

31 2phase phase phase

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ESPLANADE. square evolution

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Gothenburg city centre

Kortedala/Bergsjön

Angered

if there will be a renewable fuel source that can provide enough fuel to run the same number of cars in 2050 as exist in the world today. In addition to that, a car based system makes for a dispersed city with many infrastructural barriers caused by amount of land needed for and the placement of parking and roads. By removing the driving/parking culture and focusing on public transport, the creation of a dense and attractive mixed city is possible. The ecological footprint of an area mainly relying on a public transport system will be smaller than one using a car based system, due to both the land needed for the production of fuel and the dispersed structure of a car based city.Public transportation will also be effected by the change in consumption patterns with a reduction in private vehicle ownership, especially cars. Modern day car ownership is a huge stress on the financial situation for many inhabitants of Sweden. In Swedish rural areas the car cost in a family is usually the biggest expenditure in the monthly budget (BilSweden, 2005). This implies that an improvement in the quality and convenience of public transport to the point where it allows private car ownership to be reduced on a large scale will dramatically improve the economy of families.We proposed a strengthening of the public transport system on four levels, internal (connections within Angered), neighboring (links to close areas on the fringe, such as Bergsjön and Kortedala, as well as the city center), regional and national/international.

biking and walkingMaking use of biking and walking as increasingly significant modes of transport is of high importance due to a number of social and environmental factors. First, both walking and cycling are energy efficient modes of transport, which employ food as fuel thereby making them environmentally friendly. Second, the presence of cyclists and pedestrians creates a heightened perception of safety on streets and in other public spaces. This is due to the increased number of eyes on the street, which creates a sense of passive surveillance. However, since the effective range of these modes of transport is relatively low, it is important to create a mixed urban environment in order to keep as many functions as possible within a short distance. Thirdly both biking and walking have strong positive effects on public health. In all planning biking and walking will be the most highly prioritized modes of transport and the first choice for most people when traveling less then 5 km.

PRT-personal rapid transitPRT, or personal rapid transit, is a rail bound public transport system using small, on-demand vehicles, which act almost like regular cars. In order to get a high capacity the rails are elevated off the ground, and there is a bypass option at each station enabling the PRT to ferry its passengers directly to their destination. The scenario proposes the use of a PRT system mainly in suburban areas in order to improve their internal connections.

This new high-tech public transport system will be composed of three big loops linking each of the Angered satellites so that there will no longer be any dead ends in the line. This reduces the sense that Angered is composed of number of dead end islands of built environment, which is especially valid for the residential areas Rannebergen, Gårdsten and Lövgärdet.Stations will be placed closer to each other than the tram stops and the waiting time will be less than 1 minute, with travel speeds that will range from 40-130 km/h. The cost of the system is estimated to be 30 to 50 million SEK/km, or approximately one fourth the cost of a tramline.

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tram and bus Trams are expected to retain their importance to the greater transportation network in 2050, but a rearrangement of the tram infrastructure is needed in order to improve the capacity and decrease the vulnerability of the system. Today all tramlines pass through one station in the city center; this station has become a bottleneck, which severely limits increased capacity. In the scenario for 2050 a tram network with several nodes in the city center is proposed in order to raise the capacity. Buses will still act as a complement to the tram network since their flexibility is higher than that of rail bound systems.

The same strategy of creating a looped transport system goes for the tram and bus connections to neighboring areas and the city center. A tram connection to the neighboring areas Bergsjön and Kortedala is proposed, which will remove the dead ends in the northern suburbs. By connecting the tram rails in the north we will create an additional route for the tram to the city center, which will decrease the vulnerability of the entire system. Another advantage is that it will give the residents of a wider area than just Angered access to the well functioning services and workplaces in Angered Centrum and the new esplanade area.

train and tram-trainTrains should be the natural first choice for any long distance trip due to their high speed and energy efficiency. The capacity of the rail infrastructure will be increased

in relation to demand. As the city, and especially the center, is expected to retain its importance, the number of people commuting by train within the Gothenburg region will increase.

The use of so called tram-trains, trams that can run on both train and tram rail, is proposed for everyday commuting because they will make more efficient use of the rail networks and decrease the vulnerability of the train system by giving the train the option of taking alternate routes via the tram network. The tram-train will act as a tram while passing through denser areas and as a train, going faster and stopping at less stops, when passing less dense areas. This will make it possible for commuters to reduce their need to change modes of transport and therefore making commuting by public transport more convenient.To improve the regional connections a ring line, commuter and goods, train going to Hisingen, the area just west of Angered and a connection to Ale, the municipality just north of Angered are proposed. In addition the ‘tram–train’ system will connect to the western part of the region. This will run from Angered Centrum over to Torslanda in Hisingen; which will not only contribute to the tourist market for the northern archipelago of Gothenburg, but will also give the residents of Gothenburg easier access to the sea for recreational purposes. The tram-train solution will link the regional heavy rail links with the urbanised tram routes without the necessity of building more infrastructure.

boat and flightFor international travel, especially intercontinental trips, boats will become an increasingly important option due to their relatively high, energy efficiency. Technical innovations, such as the use of an aiding kite sail will be implemented in order to further increase the speed and energy efficiency of boats. Since fuel costs are expected to increase dramatically, air travel will be reserved for those trips where exceptional speed is needed; otherwise train and boat will become the main options for international travel.

transport of goodsDue mainly to its heavily trafficked harbor Gothenburg will continue to be an important hub for the transportation of goods to and from Scandinavia. The harbor will remain a vital part of the sustainable transport system, which will become a primarily train and boat network by 2050.The proposed system of goods transportation to and from the region will be sea-based, depending on boats, for intercontinental shipping, and land-based, depending primarily on train, for national and continental transport. These modes of transportation will make the most efficient use of both land and energy.For goods transport within the region trains and tram-trains will be employed where possible, while trucks will be used for local transportation to areas that cannot be reached by train.

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agricultureThe Gothenburg region will make more efficient use of its 50,000 ha of agricultural land to attain a level of semi self-sufficiency for food and biofuels by 2050 (SCB, 2004). Employing only organic farming techniques, for both economic and ecological reasons, the farms will not make use of non-organic fertilizers and pesticide, as the production of these products is quite energy intensive. For health, economic and ecological reasons the normal diet for the inhabitants of the area in 2050

will be mostly vegetarian, and the majority of regional farms will produce mainly vegetables.

In the rural areas of the region large scale farming, growing produce for both food and biofuels will be combined with smaller scale high intensive farms. Small farms are generally much more energy efficient and less land consuming than large industrial farms and thus more sustainable.

The layout of Gothenburg city features a large number of green wedges, which allow for peri-urban agriculture, or agriculture at the fringes of urban areas, to a great extent. In Gothenburg this form of agriculture will encompass everything from strictly commercial production to private or collective activities. The more non-commercial food production will also serve as a community building activity. This locally grown food will reduce both the economic and ecological cost of food production.Rural and peri-urban agriculture will be more labor intensive in 2050 in comparison to regional farming in 2008 making a higher yield possible. A larger variety of crops will be grown, some of which are uncommon in modern Swedish agriculture. This development will be linked to the increased self-sufficiency and new local ecological knowledge. With these changes the region will move to the forefront of peri-urban and urban agriculture.For the urban areas in the region agriculture will also be something that is engaged in within homes or in close proximity thereof. This will serve as means for both the region and inhabitants to be more independent of the larger food supply chain and also help to enhance economic sustainability.

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urban agriculture & an urban agricultural university Angered, in particular, will see many benefits from specializing in agriculture, which will be used as a tool to work with some of the weaknesses in the area such as segregation, unemployment, and low education levels, among others.

The specialisation of Angered in local farming and urban agriculture will be done in collaboration with the new Urban Agricultural University situated between Hammarkullen and Angered Centrum. Urban agriculture is a growing trend world wide, based both on need and the desire for a more sustainable lifestyle.

The university will make it possible for a broad knowledge based industry connected to Agri-tech and research and development programmes to be established. Moreover, it will introduce agricultural knowledge early in life thus awakening interest in the natural world. Elementary and high schools will have close collaboration with local farmers and the university making growing food a natural part of one’s life.

In addition, the establishment of small farms on the outskirts of Angered (in the valley of Lärjeån) will create a vivid and thriving landscape. In the more urban areas of Angered, and the region, there will be variety of agricultural activities, which provide better food access, income and a food consciousness

among the inhabitants. The assortment of community, allotment, rooftop, vertical, and balcony gardens as well as fruit trees will offer greening to the dense urban dwellings.

energy systemsIn order to remain within the boundaries of the ecological frame, fossil fuels and uranium will not be employed at all in 2050 Gothenburg. Instead the main solutions to reach ecologically sustainable energy production will be to reduce per capita energy consumption, to employ large scale hydro power in a continuous fashion, to increase the large scale wind and wave power production capacity, to use waste and waste energy for the production of heat, electricity and fuel, and to make use of roofs, facades and other hard surfaces for the small scale production of heat, electricity and biomass. In total this network of small-scale production sites will be a major contributor the energy system.

large-scale energy productionNationally hydro power will continue to be the most important source of electricity. However, in the Gothenburg region large-scale offshore and coastal wind farms and wave power plants together with land based wind farms will be also be important sources of electricity. For instance, some parts of Angered are very windy due to their topography making them suitable for wind farms. One example of the local wind park capacity can

be found at the proposed park situated northwest of Hammarkullen close to the Göta river, which will likely have an installed capacity of 20GWh/year, enough to fulfill the electricity needs for 5,000 apartments.

small-scale energy productionSmall roof-mounted windmills will be an important part of the locally produced electricity. Used in combination with photovoltaic and solar panels placed on roofs and facades the windmills will give inhabitants and companies a possibility for personal energy production, which will prove a boon to both economic and ecological sustainability.Photovoltaic and solar panels for heating will be placed on the facades of apartment blocks in Angered when they are renovated. In addition they will be placed on roofs and other accessible spaces where suitable. For example, they could be used as a part of shading rooftop seating in place of an umbrella or in allotment areas.

heating solutionIn urban areas district heating will be used in combination with solar panels placed on the buildings as the main source of heating and hot water. In rural homes biofuels such as wood and locally gown agricultural residue will be used for production of heat and hot water, but will be widely used in combination with solar panels. In 2050, district heating will be fueled mainly through

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the incineration of biofuels in combined heat and power plants, but will also be supplemented by solar panels.District heating, now mostly “imported” from other districts, will to a larger extent be locally produced, but still be connected to the city system. More local production will reduce distribution losses since the distance hot water is pumped will be reduced. The heat produced will be distributed by the district heating system. In 2008 the existing oil based heating plant in Angered produces heat only during the coldest days of the year. This plant will be converted to a biofuel based facility that will run as a base-load plant, providing hot water throughout the year, and not only during the coldest days.

A new plant will be located south of Gårdsten and will have a production potential of about 50 GWh of heat. Much of the fuel used will be based on fast growing willows and other locally grown biofuels. The heat produced at this plant can supply heat to approximately 3600 houses.

fuels for non-grid connected vehiclesBiogas, used in combination with electricity, will be the most common fuel for vehicles such as cars, trucks and

buses. In those areas, within the region, where public transport is not easily accessible there will be the option to use private or collectively owned cars where necessary.In addition, local industrial centers will be placed in various locations within the region to enable the production and distribution of goods locally, thus allowing the region an additional area of semi self-sufficiency. This semi self sufficiency will also be visible in the use of exterior building surfaces for food and energy production, and waste treatment.

ecological footprint of Angered in 2050The average footprint for an inhabitant in Angered will be 2.1 gha/person in 2050, according to our calculations. This is based on the aforementioned model which uses an average calculation of 11.2 billion hectares of biologically production land on earth and divides it evenly over the global population to descerne what can be considered a sustainable per person use of land. Our global population projections for 2050 suggest that if there is an even distribution of resource consumption and land use the ecological footprint in 2050 should be 1.2 gha/person. Therefore, while the reduction in resource use proposed within these scenarios is dramatic, further steps are needed to bring the ecological footprint of the Gothenburg regional population of 2050 to within sustainable levels.

social sustainability in Angered in 2050By forming an internal network of production and distribution for large portions of the food, water and energy supply Angered, and the greater Gothenburg region are assured a reasonable level of resilience in regards to disturbances in the national and global distribution networks. This new found level of resilience will help the population meet the first rung of needs in acheiving social sustainability. Also on this level is the matter of individual human safety, a need that will be met through a number of changes made to infrastructure, planning in the urban space, design and location of meeting points, access routes and the like. With reasonable success in meeting the afforementioned factors the groundwork will be laid for solving the somewhat more complex social issues such as equality and integration. Integration will be tackled further through local densification strategies, such as mixed use areas and mixed housing and changes to the design and location of meeting points within the area. If these factors are met then, given the stipulations laid out in Maslow’s Heirarchy of Needs, it is reasonable to assume that the foundation will be in place for the most complex of the social factors, the potential for self realization. This is, of course, an immessurable entity that means different things to different people, but according to Maslow, if the lower level needs are met then the opportunity or potential for self realization should exist as a result. All that remains to be seen is whether or not the populous acts on that opportunity.

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2.1gha

5.2gha

2008 2050

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In addition, we also propose a reduction in the use of consumables to aid in not only the acheivment of semi-independence but also in lowering the regional ecological footprint. However, the solutions currently proposed in this scenario are too conservative to reduce the ecological footprint of the Gothenburg region to a sustainable level. While the conservative nature of these proposals might be realistic on a more global scale, given the social acceptability of energy efficiency and conservation in Sweden it would be easy to adopt even more drastic measures to reduce the ecological footprint of the region to within sustainable levels.

In recent years the goal of sustainable development has become a viewed as a panacea for all of society’s ills, but the reality is not as simple as the concept’s admirers would have it seem. Sustainable development in itself is not a single solution and those solutions that encourage it are not applicable to all sites or all situations. What we have discovered in our exploration of sustainable development scenarios for Angered and the greater Gothenburg region is that there are a few thematic solutions that could be easily transferable to other sites. One of these transferable thematic solutions that we chose to apply to the Gothenburg case is the concept of semi self-sufficiency, or the ability of the region to be both independent of the greater global networks while at the same time being connected to them. In this case we chose to adopt more local production of food, energy and other consumables to create a semi autonomous region. Importation of these products will remain, but the resilience of the region will have been increased, enhancing its ability to withstand many of the drastic changes that might occur within the global networks in the future.

conclusion

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Lost in thought I meander down the esplanade. It is far more quiet then usual especially for such a beautiful day in late May. I imagine that many of the people of Angered are off catching the newsfeeds somewhere. The regional board should be having their press conference any moment, announcing to the city and the municipalities just beyond it that there will be no shortage as warned on the news. The region will be fine. It will tap more heavily into its own supplies of food, energy and power to sustain through the crisis. There is even talk of exporting some of the excess out beyond the regional borders in an attempt to support other communities that haven’t the same built in buffers as Gothenburg. Of course, the news from the outside world is not quite as rose colored, but the region will endure admirably as planned.

I stop for a moment and purchase a small bouquet of cut flowers from a street vendor. I smile to myself. It is going to be a beautiful afternoon.

June 18, 2050

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