C I T Y S C I E N C E I N T R OLaurence Oakes-Ash loa@cityscience.com

MODERN TRANSPORT ANALYTICS: WHY CITY SCIENCE?D E L I V E R I N G I N F R A S T R U C T U R E - S C A L E D I G I T A L T W I N S & A D V A N C E D A N A L Y T I C S

City Science takes complex problems and delivers automated, intuitive, easy-to-use, solutions.Combining deep engineering expertise, advanced analytics and software development we provide bespoke tools to help cities understand, monitor and manage their most pressing issues. With proprietary algorithms covering strategic transport, network resilience, sustainable travel and energy, City Science is an ideal partner to develop automated, efficient solutions to complex modelling problems.

The City Science Difference

Our Transport Platform

Our Team

Our senior team combines over 80 years of real-time systems experience with academic and software engineering rigour. We have acquired the best talent, combining deep subject-matter expertise with modern data science.

Transport Analytics

Economics

Data

IoT

Modelling

Advanced Analytics

BI

Integrating

strategic modelling

& operational data

Investing to solve

our clients

problems

Partnering for

innovation

HOW WE APPLY CITY SCIENCET A R G E T E D S O L U T I O N S T O A D D R E S S B U R N I N G I S S U E S

D e f i n e C h a l l e n g e A r t i c u l a t e B u s i n e s s N e e d

A g g r e g a t e D a t a

A p p l y S c i e n c e

I n t e g r a t e S o l u t i o n

E v a l u a t e c u r r e n t s t a t e

C l e a n s e i n t e r n a l d a t a

I d e n t i f y e x t e r n a l d a t a

A n a l y s e a n d m o d e l

U n d e r s t a n d k e y d r i v e r s

I n t e g r a t e i n t o w o r k f l o w

D e l i v e r l o n g - t e r m v a l u e

City Science Applies

Advanced Analytics

Stochastic Optimisation

Machine Learning

Statistical Modelling

Business Intelligence

Visualisation

INTRODUCING THE CITY SCIENCE SOLUTIONS

S h a r i n g , C o l l a b o r a t i o n & W o r k f l o w

D y n a m i c D i g i t a l T w i n s

S u s t a i n a b l e T r a n s p o r t

N e t w o r k R e s i l i e n c eT r a n s p o r t ‘ B i g ’

D a t a

City Science Transport Solutions

A c c i d e n t R i s k & A n a l y t i c s

S p a t i a l S t r a t e g y & P l a n n i n g

D e m a n d M o d e l l i n g & A n a l y s i s

EXAMPLES OF OUR WORKD A T A - D R I V E N T R A N S P O R T T O O L S M A D E A C C E S S I B L E T H R O U G H S O F T W A R E

S h a r i n g , C o l l a b o r a t i o n & W o r k f l o w

N e t w o r k R e s i l i e n c e

D y n a m i c D i g i t a l T w i n s

D e m a n d M o d e l l i n g & A n a l y s i s

S u s t a i n a b l e T r a n s p o r t

T r a n s p o r t ‘ B i g ’ D a t a

S p a t i a l S t r a t e g y & P l a n n i n g

A c c i d e n t R i s k & A n a l y t i c s

T R A N S P O R T S O F T W A R E F O R C I T I E S & R E G I O N S

L I N K I N G T R A N S P O R T M O D E L S T O L I V E D A T A

N E T W O R K T O O L S F O R A C T I V E T R A V E L

P R E D I C T I V E A N A L Y T I C S F O R C O N G E S T I O N

T O O L S T O Q U A N T I F Y & I M P R O V E R E S I L I E N C E

A D V A N C E D S C E N A R I O S I M U L A T I O N

T O O L S T O A N A L Y S E A N D I M P R O V E A C C E S S

R I S K M E T R I C S & M O D E L L I N G

P R O J E C T ‘ C A D E N C E ’

PROJECT ‘CADENCE’ – A NEW APPROACH TO MODELLING

I m m e d i a t e R e s u l t s

S h a r e M o d e l s w i t h S t a k e h o l d e r s

E n a b l e C o l l a b o r a t i v e W o r k i n g

I m p r o v e C o n t r a c t M a n a g e m e n t

A u d i t & Q u a l i t y A s s u r e M o d e l s

S a v e T i m e a n d C o s t

M a n a g e & V i e w S c e n a r i o s

V i s u a l i s a t i o n f o r C o n s u l t a t i o n

C O L L A B O R A T I V E I N N O V A T I O N P A R T N E R S H I P W I T H S E L E C T E D C I T I E S & R E G I O N S

Turn every consultancy project into a repeatable and scalable software solution saving time and cost. Improve

Contract Management and quality assurance with automated model

checks. Enable distributed workflow with web-based version control. Benefit from automated GIS visualisations. Enable integration between legacy strategic models, up-stream and down-stream workflows and real-time data feeds.

Web-Based Modelling Platform

Industry-led innovation partnership developing modern tools

for transport professionals. Designed around an online repository for transport models, our software enables partner

cities to save time, reduce cost, share and communicate scheme benefits and work collaboratively across teams. New features added every two weeks based on user feedback, requirements and need.

A step-change in workflow

MODERN TOOLS FOR TRANSPORT PLANNERSB R I N G M O D E L S T O L I F E A N D D I S C O V E R N E W I N S I G H T S

Ve r s i o n C o n t r o l M a n a g e M o d e l C h a n g e s

Q u a l i t y A s s u r e

A n a l y t i c a l I n s i g h t s

R i c h V i s u a l i s a t i o n s

E f f i c i e n t W o r k f l o w

S o r t , C h e c k & V a l i d a t e

A u t o m a t e d Q A P r o c e s s

U n d e r s t a n d m o d e l d a t a

A p p l y d a t a s c i e n c e

A u t o m a t e G I S o u t p u t s

S h a r e w i t h s t a k e h o l d e r s

LARGE MODELS - EXAMPLEW E B - B A S E D S H A R I N G , E X P L O R A T I O N , C O N S U L T A T I O N & V I S U A L I S A T I O N O F L A R G E M O D E L S

H i g h w a y s E n g l a n d S o u t h W e s t R e g i o n a l M o d e l

D e m a n d S e l e c t i o n ( S W R T M )

C o m p a r i s o n P a g e

I s o c h r o n e V i e w e r ( S W R T M )

U s e o f m o d e l c o m p o n e n t s t o c r e a t e n e w m o d e l s

S U S TA I N A B L E T R AV E L

S u s t a i n a b l e T r a n s p o r t

ANALYTICS FOR HEALTHY STREETSS U I T E O F A U T O M A T E D A N A L Y T I C A L T O O L S F O R A C T I V E M O D E S

M a p N e t w o r k B a r r i e r s

A c c e s s i b i l i t y I n s i g h t s

U n d e r s t a n d ‘ L i n k e d J o u r n e y s ’

A n a l y t i c s L C W I P To o l k i t

City Science has developed a suite of automated tools to understand and plan for active modes. Aligned to the DfT’sLocal Cycling and Walking Plan technical guidance, the tools provide a comprehensive range of network information from which to plan new interventions. The toolkit models linked journeys, Core Walking Zones, accessibility isochrones, mesh density, porosity and generalised cost. The toolkit is continually updated as new data becomes available, in particular citizen-sourced quality data.

S u s t a i n a b l e T r a n s p o r t

ANALYTICS FOR HEALTHY STREETSM A X I M I S E T H E V A L U E O F S U S T A I N A B L E T R A V E L D A T A

U t i l i s e E x i s t i n g D a t a

P l a n & M o n i t o r P r o g r e s s

M a x i m i s e B e n e f i t

E x a m p l e U s e o f G P S D a t a

City Science uses bicycle GPS data to create path heatmaps, OD matrices and travel time distributions for data captured from city-wide bike schemes. This data can then be used within demand modelling processes to create full-purpose trip matrices and combined with network analysis to further inform strategic planning. Similar approaches can be used to collect walking trip information and develop new walking models.

E X A M P L E U S E O F G P S T R A C K I N G D A T A

C A S E S T U D I E S

D y n a m i c ‘ D i g i t a l T w i n ’ M o d e l s

DYNAMIC ‘D IGITAL TWIN’ MODELSD E T A I L E D W H A T - I F M O D E L L I N G O F K E Y I S S U E S

U n d e r s t a n d I s s u e s

M o d e l O u t c o m e s

I m p r o v e P e r f o r m a n c e

C a s e S t u d y H G V M o d e l l i n g v i a G P S

Hinkley Point, one of Europe’s largest construction sites, require an in depth understanding of their HGV movements and resulting the CO2 emissions. City Science is developing a Digital Twin model of the operations, calibrating the model with real-world GPS trackers. The model will be used to simulate the range of potential schedules determining the critical congestion and journey time impacts of each in order to plan more efficient deliveries, reduced fuel costs and lower congestion.

Transport is a dynamic system, comprised of multiple agents frequently impacted by the external environment. To stay ahead you need to react quickly to changing dynamics, accurately predict demand before it happens and integrate across platforms and suppliers.

Dynamic Transport

Smart Management

Planning optimal solutions for complex sites can be challenging requiring longer-term strategic and short-term operational plans and processes. Our solutions provide detailed bespoke modelling of complex problems to facilitate smart and efficient transport decisions.

S h a r i n g , C o l l a b o r a t i o n & W o r k f l o w

USE OF CADENCE TO SHARE & COLLABORATEB E T A T R I A L S A C R O S S 4 C I T Y R E G I O N S

V a l i d a t e & A s s u r e

I n t e r r o g a t e & E x p l o r e

V i s u a l i s e & S h a r e

C a s e S t u d y V e r s i o n C o n t r o l

City Science exists to help find the most effective ways to solve city problems through data. Through significant R&D with partner cities and organisations we are developing software solutions to deliver insights seamlessly and efficiently to users when and where they need them.

Changing Demand

Tooling the City

Cities and infrastructure are undergoing rapid transition from traditional processes to dynamic, data-enabled automated systems. This convergence of statistical modelling and ‘Big’ real-time data requires new modelling tool to deliver trusted insights, fast.

Cadence is being used by 4 partner cities. These cities are benefiting from advanced version control to organise and track model divergence, distribute workflows across teams, compare scenarios and quality assure models. Within these regions, licenses are offered to consultancies and the system can then be used to report changes, enhance communication and assure the quality of work through automated tests. New releases are available every 2-weeks building new functionality based on user need.

N e t w o r k R e s i l i e n c eQUANTIFY AND IMPROVE NETWORK RESIL IENCEU N D E R S T A N D , M O D E L A N D M A N A G E N E T W O R K P E R F O R M A N C E

P r i o r i t i s e I m p r o v e m e n t s

M o n i t o r C h a n g e s

P l a n f o r I n c i d e n t s

C a s e S t u d y M e t r i c s f o r R e s i l i e n c e

City Science is developing a series of statistical and computational tools to measure, understand and monitor network resilience under the DfT T-TRIG scheme. The metrics scale from link-level analysis to the scale of regional ‘networks of interest’. Networks of interest can be defined based on key policy objectives such as economic growth, innovation or housing. Analysis can be used to understand existing pinch points, changes over time and also to develop mitigation strategies for traffic operations.

Resilience is a critical concept within transport networks, but one that has historically been difficult to define, difficult to measure and, as a result difficult to plan for. City Science’s resilience tools solve this problem allowing you to quantify resilience and prioritise improvements.

Network Resilience

Economic Growth

City Science is developing a series of statistical and computational tools to assess network resilience between key centres of economic growth. These tools create a clear link between economic strategy and option development to maximise productivity and agglomeration effects.

T r a n s p o r t ‘ B i g D a t a ’

DELIVERING TRANSPORT INSIGHTSA P P L I C A T I O N S O F A D V A N C E D A N A L Y T I C S T O T R A D I T I O N A L M O D E L L I N G P R O B L E M S

Q u i c k l y s i m u l a t e s c e n a r i o s

E n h a n c e p r e d i c t i v e a c c u r a c y

L i n k s t r a t e g i c & l i v e d a t a

C a s e S t u d y P r e d i c t i v e S p e e d M o d e l

The predictive speed model was a pilot project in collaboration with Devon County Council to apply machine learning approaches to model congestion. The project developed a capacity and congestion prediction methodology through the application of machine learning to a range of network data and statistics. The test sites achieved a prediction accuracy of 90%. The model was presented at Modelling World 2017 and Smarter Travel Live 2017.

While WebTag still underpins scheme appraisals, advanced analytics has a number of applications in transport modelling and operation. City Science utilises Bayesian and Machine Learning approaches to deliver academically robust, value-added uses for Big Data in transport.

Next Generation Modelling

S u s t a i n a b l e T r a n s p o r t

MODELLING WALKING & CYCLINGG R A N U L A R M O D E L L I N G A P P R O A C H E S T O W A L K I N G & C Y C L I N G

B e s p o k e M o d e l l i n g

G r a n u l a r D a t a

I n s i g h t s & V a l u e

C a s e S t u d y C y c l i n g P r o p e n s i t y M o d e l

City Science developed a Generalised Linear Model to explore and predict cycling rates across the UK. In particular the model takes account of gradient via a ‘hilliness’ metric applied to each MSOA. Generalised Linear Models offer a very flexible framework for modelling using data available. The model can readily be extended to include other predictor variables such as gender, age, climate, income, outdoor sports participation, road risk etc. These can then be applied geospatially.

City Science can combine detailed network tools, accessibility metrics, road risk predictors, citizen-sourced data and other datasets to model walking and cycling. Combining academic research with a practical focus, City Science brings cutting-edge science to the planning of healthy streets.

Bespoke Modelling

Value-added Insights

Utilising innovative proprietary techniques, City Science can deliver value-added insights from existing data, including demographics, network, accessibility, road risk, climate and topology metrics.

A c c i d e n t R i s k & A n a l y t i c s

INSIGHTS FOR ACCIDENT RISKS P E C I A L I S T A N A L Y S I S I N R I S K A N D R O A D S A F E T Y

P r e d i c t C r a s h R i s k

E v a l u a t e I n t e r v e n t i o n s

E n h a n c e I n t e r v e n t i o n R O I

C a s e S t u d y A g e - p e r i o d - c o h o r t m o d e l s

City Science applied statistical approaches to interpret the Stats19 data drawing out specific risk criteria using an age-period-cohort model. This method was used to assess the rate of male motorcycle accidents broken down by each factor: the age of the individual, the time-period in question and the birth year (the cohort). For more information on how this model is applied, see Carstensen et al, 2017. This enables disaggregation of the particular risk into its component parts enabling the design of targeted interventions.

City Science applies modern predictive analytics to quantify crash risk. Using modern data sources, including detailed junction simulations, exposure and demographics to improve forecasting, City Science can provide new ways of interpreting risk data and robust frameworks for the evaluation of interventions.

Predictive Insights

S p a t i a l S t r a t e g y & P l a n n i n g

TARGETED INTERVENTIONS FOR SITESB E S P O K E M O D E L L I N G T O U N D E R S T A N D P L A C E S

U n d e r s t a n d A c c e s s

D e v e l o p O p t i o n s

M o d e l O u t c o m e s

C a s e S t u d y S i t e P l a n n i n g f o r H o s p i t a l

The Royal Devon & Exeter Hospital wanted to understand the key activity drivers and travel patterns to its site. City Science consolidated existing data to develop a series of analysis to understand the key client issues. A survey was then designed to understand the most impactful interventions and underpin demand and revenue modelling for a range of site options. The evidence will support key interventions to maximise access to the site and inform development over the coming years.

Space utilisation and accessibility can be critical for sites serving the public, customers or seeking to expand and grow. City Science provides targeted modelling services to understand key drivers, barriers and interventions likely to maximise access and site values.

Critical Considerations

D e m a n d M o d e l l i n g & A n a l y s i s

DEMAND MODELLING & ANALYSISD E T A I L E D W H A T - I F M O D E L L I N G O F K E Y I S S U E S

S c e n a r i o M o d e l l i n g

S e n s i t i v i t y A n a l y s i s

G e o - s p a t i a l F o r e c a s t i n g

C a s e S t u d y 2 0 4 0 D e m a n d M o d e l l i n g

As part of the evidence base for the Greater Exeter Strategic Plan, Devon County Council required a range of forecasts for commuting trip demand based on economic and population projections. A range of predictive models were developed to forecast how population numbers, characteristics and travel preferences would influence demand for trips, in aggregate, spatially and by time of day out to 2040. This included modelling potential effects of autonomous vehicles and other key demand drivers.

The future of transport is uncertain. Advanced simulation methods provide the opportunity to evaluate many scenarios, their associated likelihood and geospatial impact. City Science builds comprehensive models to simulate and assess future scenarios to reduce risk and improve outcomes.

Multi-Scenario Modelling

T H A N K Y O U