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For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
UK Equity - Behind the
Headlines and the Hype
Ben Russon
Fund Manager
October 2013 Franklin UK Opportunities Fund
Franklin Templeton Funds
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND
The Fund – June 2013 Onwards
• Ben Russon, lead manager from June 2013
• 30-50 stocks
• Concentrated holdings of between 1.5% – 5%
• Large-cap bias, high quality, long-term investments
• Renamed – Franklin UK Opportunities Fund
2
Franklin UK Opportunities Fund changed its name from Franklin UK Select Growth Fund on 30/09/2013. Franklin UK Select Growth Fund was launched on
17/10/2011 to receive the assets of the Rensburg UK Select Growth Trust.
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND
Investment Themes
3
Debt & Deleverage
Savings and Investment
Stable Core
UK Housing ‘Recovery’
US Housing & Construction
Online Opportunities
Traditional Roll-out Models
Demographics
De-equitisation
Business Risk
Balance Sheet Risk
Management Risk
Valuation Risk
30 – 50
Stock Portfolio
A fundamental research approach focused on high quality companies
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND
The Case for an Unconstrained Approach
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan-
85
Jan-
86
Jan-
87
Jan-
88
Jan-
89
Jan-
90
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
From the 'great moderation' ...
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
... to a more volatile world
Source: Franklin Templeton Investments as at 20/05/13.
4
• Adopt unconstrained, flexible approach
• Importance of compounding income for total returns
• Focus on downside risk
• Look beyond short-term sentiment
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND
Portfolio Overview
• Tobacco
• Pharmaceuticals
• Utilities
Stable Core
• Travel & Leisure
• Software
• Media
Structural Growth
• Support Services
• Financial Services Special Situations
5
References to particular industries, sectors or companies are for general information and are not necessarily indicative of a fund’s holding at any one time.
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
Investment Themes
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND 7
• Strong market positions across
relatively attractive geographies
• Solid track record of optimising
price/mix to drive earnings
• Focus on research and innovation to
counteract negative forces
Cigarette Net Turnover
£bn 2008 2012 CAGR
Developed 4.8 5.9 5.4%
Developing 5.9 8.3 8.9%
Total 10.7 14.2 7.4%
World market consumption excl. China, India, US Stock Example:
Price/mix remains strong
Source: British American Tobacco Investor Day Presentation, as of September 2013. Please see further information for notes on stock examples. Past performance is
not a guide to future performance.
Cigarette volume split (2012)
Developed
Developing
71%
29%
Stable Core • Tobacco Demographics
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND 8
• Investor concerns – FX, regulation,
illicit trade, e-cigarettes
• Strong management, strong cash
generation, consistent earnings and
further margin potential
• 12x EV/EBIT, 7.5% FCF Yield
Tobacco producers’ operating margins Consistency of earnings growth
Global drive brands % of total sales
9% 9% 10% 11%
-5% -2%
10% 10% 5% 0%
12% 10%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013HY
EPS Growth FX Impact
19% 19% 15% 11% 7% 8%
30.7
42.5 43.2 40.2
33.0 37.4
44.7 42.7 43.0
36.4
0
10
20
30
40
502008
2012
Source: British American Tobacco Investor Day Presentation, as of September 2013. World Fact Book & Marketing Finance. Please see further information for notes on
stock examples. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Stock Example:
Stable Core • Tobacco Demographics
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND 9
• Publisher and information provider
operating in the science, medical, legal,
risk and business sectors
• Managing the transition from print to
digital
• Diversified across geographies and
business sectors
Online-derived revenues growing in
importance1
Reed Business Information: electronic revenue in proportion to total revenue
Division Digital Revenues
Scientific, Technical & Medical 73%
Risk Solutions 95%
Business Information 59%
Legal 79%
Source: 1. Reed Elsevier Annual Report and Accounts 2012. 2. Reed Elsevier Interim Results 30 June 2013. Please see further information for notes on stock examples.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
38%
46% 51%
54%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Electronic Revenue
Reed Divisions: % digital revenue2
Stock Example:
Structural Growth • Media Online Opportunities
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND 10
2011a 2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e
Sales (£m) 6002 6116 6215 6341 6528
EBIT (£m) 1267 1384 1450 1526 1603
Margin (%) 21.1 22.6 23.3 24.1 24.6
• Strong balance sheet
• Structural growth opportunities that
benefit margins
• Strong dividend growth and attractive
valuation
Online-derived revenues growing in
importance Reed Business Information: electronic revenue in proportion to total revenue
+4%
Electronic
Face to Face
Subscription Transactional
Advertising
-5-7%
+7%
+5-6%
-5-7%
+2-3%
Source: Reed Elsevier Interim Results 30 June 2013, Nomura Equity Research 26/07/13. Please see further information for notes on stock examples. Past performance is
not a guide to future performance.
Format Type
Structural Growth • Media Online Opportunities
Stock Example:
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND 11
• Self-funded expansion of successful
concepts
• Leading and developing the markets in
which it operates
• Benefitting from structural and market
opportunities
Premier Inn UK structural growth opportunity Independent sector in structural decline
2008 2010 2012
Rooms* 40,251 43,374 51,671
Share (%) 5.8% 6.4% 7.6%
Share of rooms has increased
60% 57% 54%
23% 24% 25%
17% 19% 21%
2008 2010 2012
Independents Other Branded Budget Branded
Total UK
hotel market 686,000
rooms 679,000
rooms
682,000
rooms CAGR
+5.1%
+2.3%
-2.8%
42%
30%
12%
6% 5% 3% 2%
Premier Inn
Travelodge
Holiday Inn
Ibis
Jurys Inn
Days Inn
Ramada Encore
Source: Whitbread as of 03/07/13. 1. Companies, Exane BNP Paribas estimates. Please see further information for notes on stock examples. Past performance is not a
guide to future performance.
Budget hotel marketshare1
Stock Example:
Structural Growth • Travel & Leisure Traditional Roll-Out Models
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND 12
• Plenty of potential domestic capacity
• Backing the management to execute
• It works with coffee too…
Half of the growth opportunity comes
from London Premier Inn rooms in London
2,415 2,911 3,500 3,177
5,179 8,250 2,474
2,848
5,750
1,100
2,500
2012/2013 Total includingcommitted pipeline
2018 milestone*
Hub by Premier Inn
Central London
Greater London excl.Central LondonM25 belt
12,038
c. 20,000
650
1,005 1,300
c. 2,000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2010/2011 2012/2013 2015/2016 2017/2018
Sys
tem
Sal
es (
£m)
8,066
6.0% 9.0% 13.0% Premier
Inn share
Costa Coffee doubling system sales by 2018
20%
22%
c.33%
International System
Sales Share
Source: Whitbread as of 03/07/13, Preliminary Results Presentation 2012/2013. Please see further information for notes on stock examples. Past performance is not a
guide to future performance.
Structural Growth • Travel & Leisure Traditional Roll-Out Models
Stock Example:
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
Electionineering
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND 14
• Returns do not support criticism of
‘profiteering’
• Market forces have produced some of
the lowest energy bills in Europe for UK
consumers
• UK needs £100bn+ of new investment –
‘lights out’ is more than a media headline
Electricity retail price versus benchmark cost
(including margin)
Source: Centrica, Deutsche Bank Research, Credit Suisse, National Grid as of September 2013. Please see further information for notes on stock examples.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance. .
Forecast of UK winter capacity margin Little difference in rates of growth since 2000
Stable Core • Utilities De-equitisation
Stock Example:
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
9/2
012
12
/201
2
3/2
013
6/2
013
9/2
013
12
/201
3
3/2
014
6/2
014
9/2
014
12
/201
4
Reserve margin (w/o closures above opted-out coal)Reserve margin less c4.1GW CCGT mothballing
%
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND 15
• Commodity prices and government
policy largely explain rising energy bills
• Ability to divert investment elsewhere or
return cash to shareholders
• Strong balance sheet, 7% FCF yield, 8x
EV/EBIT
Source: DECC, JP Morgan Europe Equity Research, company reports as of 26/09/13. Please see further information for notes on stock examples. Past
performance is not a guide to future performance.
.
Components of household electricity bill in 2013
2012 segmental split of operating profit (%) British Gas 2012 residential revenue split
24%
9%
52%
8%
7%
Network
Environmental & Social
Fuel Costs
Other Costs
Profit
22%
6%
11%
11%
35%
3% 12% British Gas Residential
British Gas Business
Bristish Gas Services
Generation
Gas Production
Gas Storage
Direct Energy
EU ETS 10%
CPF 6%
Warm home
discount 8%
FITs 9%
Smart Meters
& Better Billing
1%
ECO 28%
RO 38% Energy and Climate
Change Policies
14%
Wholesale energy cost
37%
Network
costs
23%
Other supplier
costs and
margin
21%
VAT
5%
Stable Core • Utilities De-equitisation
Stock Example:
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND 16
Source: Oriel Securities and Franklin Templeton Investments as at 30/06/13.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Housing transactions (000,LHS) House prices (% yoy, RHS)
Housing transactions and house prices • Government policy very committed:
• Funding for Lending Scheme
• Help to Buy
• Planning environment
• Far reaching implications:
• Bank balance sheets
• Construction employment
• Consumer confidence
• It may get you re-elected
A ‘proper’ correction never happened
Housing ticking up again
House price/earnings ratio (x)
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014House Price/Earnings Ratio Average
Special Situations • Home Construction UK Housing ‘Recovery’
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND 17
Pricing of 2-year fixed rate mortgages by LTV (%)1
Borrowing has got cheaper over last 12 months…
Source: Bloomberg and Franklin Templeton Investments as at 30/06/13. 1. Source: Regulated Mortgage Survey, CML.
%
-40-35-30-25-20-15-10
-50
01/0
6/20
08
01/1
0/20
08
01/0
2/20
09
01/0
6/20
09
01/1
0/20
09
01/0
2/20
10
01/0
6/20
10
01/1
0/20
10
01/0
2/20
11
01/0
6/20
11
01/1
0/20
11
01/0
2/20
12
01/0
6/20
12
01/1
0/20
12
01/0
2/20
13
01/0
6/20
13Consumer confidence recovering UK Consumer Confidence Index
• Mortgage availability increasing
• Mortgage terms improving
• Pent up demand
• Ripple effect and feel-good factor
• Variety of ways to gain exposure
Special Situations • Home Construction UK Housing ‘Recovery’
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
Appendix
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND
• UK equity specialists based
in Leeds
• Acquired by Franklin
Templeton Investments in
January 2011
19
About Franklin UK Equity Team
Source: Franklin Templeton Investments as at 30/06/13. The Franklin UK Equity Team was previously part of Rensburg Fund Management Limited. The
company changed its name to Franklin Templeton Fund Management Limited on 17/10/11.
• Strong and stable team
– Average investment
experience: over 20 years
– Cover the entire market
with specific areas of expertise
• Ben Russon joined in April 2013
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND
Investment Parameters
20
Franklin UK Opportunities Fund
• Unconstrained portfolio construction process
30-50 Stocks
• Focused portfolio of high conviction ideas 1.5%-5% Weightings
• Emphasis on high quality, long-term investments
Large Cap Bias
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND
Investment Process
21
Business Risk
Balance Sheet Risk
Management Risk
Valuation Risk
A broad top-down perspective on the outlook for economies and financial markets provides the framework for our bottom-up stock picking selection process
A fundamental research approach focused on high quality companies
30 – 50
Stock Portfolio
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND
Franklin UK Opportunities Fund
Fund Details
Management Ben Russon, Mark Hall, Colin Morton
Asset Category UK Equity
Investment Style Blend
IMA sector IMA UK All Companies
Benchmark FTSE All Share Index
Launch Date 17/10/2011
Number of Positions 40
Portfolio Size £97 million
22
Source: Franklin Templeton Investments, as at 30/09/13. Franklin UK Opportunities Fund changed its name from Franklin UK Select Growth Fund on 30/09/2013.
Franklin UK Select Growth Fund was launched on 17/10/2011 to receive the assets of the Rensburg UK Select Growth Trust.
All fund performance data is based on the mid price of the Rensburg UK Smaller Companies Trust from its launch on 01/07/1991 to 30/09/2011 and the net asset
value of the Franklin UK Smaller Companies Fund A(inc) shares thereafter. Holdings of the same issuer have been combined.
ISIN SEDOL Bloomberg
A(inc) GB00B45MQD36 B45MQD3 BWDAGGI LN
W(acc) GB00B76GK996 B76GK99 FUKSGWA LN
Z(acc) GB00B7F47W60 B7F47W6 FUKSGZA LN
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND
What Has Changed?
• Ben became lead manager in June 2013
• Number of portfolio holdings now <50
• Standard holding size >1.5% weighting
• Slight move up the market cap scale
23
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND 24
Market Cap Breakdown
Source: Franklin Templeton Investments as at 30/09/13.
31 March 2013 30 September
2013
FTSE 100 66.1% 78.3%
FTSE 250 31.5% 17.4%
Other 1.5% 1.6%
Cash 1% 2.7%
No. of stocks 66 40
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND
What Remains the Same?
• Many of existing stock names are consistent with this
investment approach
• Asset allocation and sector exposures broadly consistent
• Mark Hall remains a key component of the investment
team for the Franklin UK Opportunities Fund and the
wider product suite
25
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND 26
• Greater downturn and more
established recovery than UK
• Different supply/demand balance
versus UK
• Many corporates well positioned to
benefit
• Challenged by recent moves in
interest rates
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Jul-04 Jan-06 Jul-07 Jan-09 Jul-10 Jan-12
New
Ho
me
Sal
es
(Th
ou
san
ds)
New Home Sales (Thousands)Jun-13
Source: Franklin Templeton Investments and Bloomberg US Census Bureau as at 30/06/13. 1. Source: S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10 Home Price Index
US recovery from a lower base and further
advanced than UK US New home sales
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
88 93 98 03 08 13
Sharp recovery in US house prices US home price appreciation. Year-over-year change 31 January 1988 - 30 April 20131
US Housing & Construction Special Situations •Home Construction
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND 27
• Construction equipment rental business
• 3 drivers – cyclical, structural and market
trends
• High degree of operational leverage
• Debate is centred upon the valuation
2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e
Sales (£m) 834 919 1121 1345 1552
EBIT (£m) 65.5 101 175 281 347
Margin (%) 7.9 11.0 15.6 20.9 22.4
Source: 1. Kaplan Associates/Management Estimates. 2. Bloomberg as at 29/08/13. This is an example of an investment purchased pursuant to investment advice of
Franklin UK Opportunities Fund; the investment may or may not be currently held by Franklin Templeton Funds. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact
regarding an industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation. The actions taken with respect to this investment, and its
performance, may not be representative of other advice or investments. Factual statements are taken from sources considered reliable, but have not been independently
verified for completeness or accuracy by the fund’s manager or its affiliates. These opinions may not be relied upon as investment advice or an offer for a particular security
or as an indication of trading intent for any Franklin Templeton fund. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Ashtead Group earnings and estimates2
US and UK retail penetration (%)1 Stock Example:
25
45 50
60+
0
15
30
45
60
75
2000 2011 2014E USPotential
%
75
0
15
30
45
60
75
2012
%
US UK
US Housing & Construction Special Situations •Home Construction
For Professional Investors Only. Not for Distribution to Retail Investors.
FRANKLIN UK OPPORTUNITIES FUND
Important Information For professional investor use only, this document is not aimed at, nor intended for use by retail investors.
Copyright © 2013 Franklin Templeton Investments. All rights reserved.
This document is intended to be of general interest only and does not constitute legal or tax advice nor is it an offer for shares or invitation to apply for shares of the UK-domiciled
OEIC, Franklin Templeton Funds OEIC (“the Fund”). Nothing in this document should be construed as investment advice.
Franklin UK Opportunities Fund changed its name from Franklin UK Select Growth Fund on 30/09/2013. Franklin UK Select Growth Fund was launched on 17/10/2011 to receive the
assets of the Rensburg UK Select Growth Trust.
Stock examples shown are examples of an investment purchased pursuant to investment advice of Franklin UK Opportunities Fund; the investment may or may not be currently held
by Franklin Templeton Funds. This is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding an industry, security or investment and should not be viewed as an investment
recommendation. The actions taken with respect to this investment, and its performance, may not be representative of other advice or investments. Factual statements are taken from
sources considered reliable, but have not been independently verified for completeness or accuracy by the fund’s manager or its affiliates. These opinions may not be relied upon as
investment advice or an offer for a particular security or as an indication of trading intent for any Franklin Templeton fund.
Subscriptions to shares of the Fund can only be made on the basis of the current prospectus, the relevant Key Investor Information Document, accompanied by the latest available
audited annual report and the latest semi-annual report if published thereafter, which can be found on our website or requested from the address below.
The value of shares in the Fund and income received from it can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Currency fluctuations may affect the
value of overseas investment. An investment in the Fund entails risks which are described in the Fund’s prospectus and in the relevant Key Investor Information Document. The Fund
invests in a specific sector or geographical area and the returns may be more volatile than a more diversified fund.
No shares of the Fund may be directly or indirectly offered or sold to nationals or residents of the United States of America. Shares of the Fund are not available for distribution in all
jurisdictions and prospective investors should confirm availability with their local Franklin Templeton Investments representative before making any plans to invest.
Opinions expressed are the author's at publication date and they are subject to change without prior notice. References to indices are made for comparative purposes only and are
provided to represent the investment environment existing during the time periods shown. An index is unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. The performance of the
index does not include the deduction of expenses and does not represent the performance of any Franklin Templeton Group fund. Any research and analysis contained in this
document has been procured by Franklin Templeton Investments for its own purposes and is provided to you only incidentally.
For a free copy of the latest prospectus, and the relevant Key Investor Information Document , the annual report and semi-annual report, if published thereafter or for more information
about any Franklin Templeton Investments’ fund, please contact: Franklin Templeton Investments, Telephone: 0800 305 306, Email: [email protected] or write to us at
the address below.
Issued by Franklin Templeton Investment Management Limited (FTIML) Registered office: The Adelphi, 1-11 John Adam Street, London WC2N 6HT. FTIML is authorised and
regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
28