Class 10

Systems Mapping Workshop

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Articulate System BoundariesEstimate Stakeholder Influence Illustrate a System DiagramOutline Forces of ChangeUtilize a Force Field Analysis

Mapping the System

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System Boundaries

Nuclear Energy System Map

ELECTRIC Energy

Nuclear

Energy Sector

Organizational Boundary

Macro-environmentBoundary

Operating Environment Boundary

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StakeholdersNuclear Energy System Map

Nuke OperatorsFuel Co’s.

NRC

Coal Plant Operators

Nat. Gas Plant Operators

Solar/Wind Farm Developers

Energy UsersGovernment Agencies

Gov’t Energy Labs

Coal Companies

Nat Gas Companies

Environmentalists

Oil Companies

Auto Companies

Tech Companies

Voters

GridOperators

Los Alamos

Elected Officials

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Hi InterestLow Interest

Hi Influence

Low Influence

Assessing Stakeholder Influence

Stakeholder Primary Concerns / Objectives

Fuel Companies

Emission limits, regs, Subsidies

Government Constituent satisfaction – Reelection

Users (Voters) JOBS, economic growth, cheap energy

Tech Providers R&D support – possible breakthru Innov

Fuel Co’s

Users (Voters)

Government

Generators

Environmentalists

Tech Providers

Transp. Sector

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System Diagram

• Mostly Fossil Fuel

• Mostly Oil• Poss. Conversion to Elect or H2 Fleet

•Fossil Fuel•Nuclear•Renewables

Abundant Domestic

Supply

Nat. Gas

Solar

Externalized Environmental

Impacts

Fission

Fusion

Safety, Spent Fuel,Proliferation Issues(Actual/Perceived)

Wind

Other

Coal

Gov’t Subsidies & Regulations

Societal Pressure for Clean Energy

Economic Pressure for Cost Effective Energy

Intermittent

Supply

Base

LoadSupply

Feasibility

CostFeasibility

No Carbon Emissions

Political Pressure for “Energy Independence”

Smart Grid

Dist.

Generation

Demand

Response

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Drivers of Change1. Growing Energy Demand2. Fossil Fuel Recovery Tech

a. Frackingb. Tight Oil

3. Regulatory Frameworksa. GHG Emissionsb. Fracking

4. R&D Investment a. Nuclearb. Fossil & Renewablesc. China, et.al.

5. Geopolitical Turbulence 6. Conversion to electric

fleet (?)

Constraints of Change1. Externalized Costs2. Existing Infrastructure3. Globalization4. R&D Effectiveness5. Political Influence of

Incumbents6. NIMBY7. Public Fear of Nuclear

Safetya. Actualb. Perceivedc. Proliferationd. Waste Disposal/

Reprocessing

Forces of Change

Nuclear Energy System Map

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Scope of Topic

Force of Change Trajectory Impact on Status Quo

Growing Energy Demand

Advanced by population and GDP Growth (linear)

Dampened by Efficiency and Conservation (linear)

Drives demand for all types of generation capacity

Mostly creates "On-Peak" Demand - more need for "Peaker Plant" supply

Fossil Fuel Recovery TechnologiesDisruptive change that is now

widely available

Dramatic increase in proven reserves and supply - greatly reducing costs

Potential to create "Energy Independence" for North America

Active Debate over Regulatory Frameworks

Highly Uncertain, Obama Advocacy, Washington

Gridlock,New EPA authority

Would limit supply and increase costs of Fossil Fuels

Would create advantage for low-emission sources - renewables and nuclear

GlobalizationLinear growth in emerging

economies

Competitive forces exacerbate job loss --> economy seeks low energy costs to regain momentum

Accelerates energy demand growth in emerging economies --> could drive up cost of fossil fuels in U.S.

Existing Infrastructure + Powerful Incumbents

Constraints on systemSlows adoption of new technologies such as smart grid and renewables

Disfunctional government programs preserve externalities and skew investment

(Renewed) Public Fear of Nuclear Safety

Steep increase after Fukushima Daiichi

Rapid reversal of nuclear as preferred Clean Energy source

Early retirement of much nuclear capacity - transition back to fossil fuels

Uncertainty over investment "oxygen supply" for next generation nuclear tech

Geopolitical TurbulenceIncreasing tension with

possibility of "Flash Point" event

Tension with oil producing countries - mostly OPEC and middle east, also Russia

Major tension over nuclear proliferation - especially Iran and N. Korea

NIMBYContraint on development of

infrastructure of any type

Places higher value on efficiency and conservation to reduce need for new infrastructure

Added emphasis on smart grid and distributed generation (e.g. rooftop solar)

R&D Investment

Surge due to Obama clean energy agenda

Steady VC interest

Drives progress in feasibility and cost - in both generation and end user efficiency

Renewables still require subsidies and RPS provisions to justify

Fear of being left behind fuels nationalistic perspectives - fuels public subsidies

Adoption of Electric VehiclesRecent surge since 2012

Still highly uncertain

Would drive dramatic demand growth for electricity

Could also serve as storage infrastructure in smart grid system

Force Field AnalysisNuclear Power Sector in U.S.

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Utilize a Force Field Analysis

Scope / BoundariesTime Horizon

Force of Change Trajectory Impact on Status Quo

Force Field Analysis

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Maintain a Systems Perspective

Force Trajectory Impact

Demographic

Economic

Governmental

Environmental

Societal

Technological

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Preparation for Class #11

Evidence-Based Foresight Class Preparation

Read “Evidence-Based Management”

Current Assessments due ___________

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