““Clean Fuels and Clean Vehicles in Clean Fuels and Clean Vehicles in Bulgaria”Bulgaria”

Michael P. WalshMichael P. Walsh

February, 2006February, 2006

OverviewOverview

• Why We Are Concerned About Vehicle Emissions

• Clean Fuels-Clean Vehicles – A Systems Approach

• Clean Cars: New and Existing• Clean Buses: New and Existing• Clean Off Road Technology• Economic Instruments• Traffic Control

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Millions

Motorcycles

Commercial Vehicles

Cars

World Motor Vehicle Population

……..increased congestion!!increased congestion!!

Products of CombustionProducts of Combustion

• Lead• Hydrocarbons• Carbon

Monoxide• Oxides of

Nitrogen• Carbon Dioxide• Particulates• Other pollutants• Water Vapor

Ambient Air Real Fuel

Engine/EmissionTechnology

Other Emissions From VehiclesOther Emissions From Vehicles

Evaporative Emissions diurnal, running losses, hot soak

Crankcase Losses due to "blow-by"

Refueling Losses displaced vapors

• Other Emissions

• brake linings, tire wear, fluid leaks

Carbon monoxide(CO)

What pollutants are of concern? What pollutants are of concern?

Ozone(ROG + NOx)

Haze

Particles (PM10/PM2.5)

(NOx, SOx, ROG, ammonia)Toxics

- Diesel particles- Benzene- Chromium- Asbestos

Greenhouse Gases

- CO2, methane

Health Impacts of Air PollutionHealth Impacts of Air Pollution

Developmental EffectsDevelopmental Effects

HospitalizationHospitalization

Asthma Attacks and BronchitisAsthma Attacks and Bronchitis

PrematurePremature DeathsDeaths

CancerCancer

Adverse Health Effects From Air Adverse Health Effects From Air Pollution Beyond DisputePollution Beyond Dispute

• WHO Concludes ~ 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PM

• Numerous Studies in Europe & US Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc.

• No Evidence of a Threshold• Ozone Also A Serious Health Concern• NO2, Various Toxics Also Problematic

HEALTH IMPACTS OF HEALTH IMPACTS OF VEHICLE EXHAUSTVEHICLE EXHAUST

• Over the past decade, dozens of studies from all over the world have shown that spending time in close proximity to heavy traffic, especially diesel truck traffic, is associated with a wide range of morbidity effects, as well as increased mortality

• Diesel exhaust particulate (DEP) declared a toxic air contaminant by ARB in 1998

Proximity To Truck Traffic Linked To Lung Proximity To Truck Traffic Linked To Lung Function in ChildrenFunction in Children

1,860

1,920

1,980

2,040

2,100

7500 12500 17500 22500

Truck Traffic Density

Lun

g F

unct

ion

in li

ter

FEV1

Brunekreef, Epidemiology; 8: 298-303

NONOxx emissions emissions EU-25EU-25

Power generationPower generation

Industrial combustionIndustrial combustion

Industrial processesIndustrial processes

Domestic

DomesticGasoline cars

Gasoline cars

Diesel carsDiesel cars

Off-road

Diesel heavy duty veh.

Diesel heavy duty veh.

Off-road

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2000 2020

RELATIVE POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS RELATIVE POLLUTANT CONCENTRATIONS vs DISTANCE FROM I-405 FREEWAYvs DISTANCE FROM I-405 FREEWAY

(Zhu et al., 2002a)(Zhu et al., 2002a)

Typical engine exhaust mass and number Typical engine exhaust mass and number weighted size distributions shown with weighted size distributions shown with

alveolar depositionalveolar deposition

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000

Diameter (m)

No

rmal

ized

Co

nce

ntr

atio

n,

dC

/Cto

tal/d

log

Dp

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Alv

eola

r D

epo

siti

on

Fra

ctio

n

Mass Weighting Number Weighting Alveolar Deposition Fraction

Fine

ParticlesDp < 2.5 m

Ultrafine ParticlesDp < 100 nm

Nanoparticles

Dp < 50 nm

NucleiMode

AccumulationMode

CoarseMode

PM10

Dp < 10 m

Fractional deposition of particle with density of 1 g/um

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Time (120 minutes)Outside Vehicle 1 Inside Vehicle 1

HDD Delivery VanDiesel Charter Bus

ARB In-Vehicle StudyARB In-Vehicle StudyReal-Time Fine Particle CountsReal-Time Fine Particle Counts

(L.A. Freeway, AM Rush Hour, Vent Open)(L.A. Freeway, AM Rush Hour, Vent Open)T

ota

l P

arti

cle

Co

un

ts /

cc

CLEAN

VEHICLE

TECHNOLOGY

CLEAN

FUELS

APPROPRIATE

MAINTENANCE

ELEMENTS OF A COMPREHENSIVE

VEHICLE POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGY

TRANSPORTATION & LAND USE PLANNING

Why Are Fuels Important?Why Are Fuels Important?• Fuel Constituents Directly Affect

Emissions

• Fuel Changes Can Immediately Impact on Emissions/Air Quality

• Fuel Composition Can Enable/Disable Pollution Control Technology

ÖL

Motivation For ImprovedMotivation For Improved Fuels Qualities Fuels Qualities

Carbon monoxide (CO)

Hydrocarbons (HC)

Nitrogen oxides (NOX)

Particulate matter (PM)

Sulfur (SO2)

Polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAH)

Greenhouse Gases

ImprovedImprovedfuel qualitiesfuel qualities

ImprovedImprovedair qualityair quality

Environmental Environmental benefitsbenefits

ReducedReducedemissionsemissions

Gasoline – Lead/Sulfur

Diesel –Sulfur

Other Parameters

Improved human health

Reduced corrosion

Improved crop yield

Less acidification, eutrophication and forest damage

Climate Change

2726

17

7

1975 1980 1985 1990

Year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Micrograms per Deciliter

Blood Lead Levels Considered Elevated

Is Any Lead Acceptable From A Health Standpoint?

Study Indicates Largest Impact Study Indicates Largest Impact at Very Low Lead Levelsat Very Low Lead Levels

• New England Journal of Medicine (4/17/2003)

• 172 children tested at 6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48, 60 months

• Corrected for confounding variables

• 101 children never above 10µg/dl

• Blood lead significantly associated with I/Q

7.4

2.5

0

2

4

6

8

IQ Loss as Lead Increases

from 1to 10from 10to 30

Ambient Pb Concentrations in BangAmbient Pb Concentrations in Bangkok and Pb in Gasoline from 1988 - 1kok and Pb in Gasoline from 1988 - 1

998998

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Pb

Co

nte

nt

in G

aso

lin

e (g

/l)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Av

era

ge

Pb

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

n ( g

/m3 )

Pb Content in Gasoline Ambient Pb Concentration

Premium ULG was introduced in 1991

Regular ULG was introduced in 1993

Complete phase out of regular leadedgasoline in 1993

Complete phase out of premium leadedgasoline in 1995

36.4

29.7

25.326.8 26.4

22.9

0

5.943.26

6.25

1.711.58

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

School 1 School 2 School 3 School 4 School 5 School 6

Per

cen

t

1993 2000

Percentage of School Children with Blood Percentage of School Children with Blood PbPb

Levels Levels ≥≥ 10 10 g/dlg/dl

The Three-way Catalytic Converter: A Familiar Technology Re-Engineered for High Performance in Close-coupled and

Underfloor Applications

•Layered washcoat architectures and support materials with high thermal stability•Integrated HC adsorption functions• Mounting materials with improved durability• High cell density ceramic or metallic substrates• Insulation schemes for heat management

Can Only Be Used With Lead Free Fuel

The “Technology Enabling”The “Technology Enabling”Fuels Story in EuropeFuels Story in Europe

EVOLUTION OF THE REGULATORY EXHAUST EMISSION STANDARDS FOR PASSENGER CARS IN THE EU

74

/29

0/E

EC

77

/10

2/E

EC

78

/66

5/E

EC

83

/35

1/E

EC

91

/44

1/E

EC

94

/12

/EC

70

/22

0/E

EC

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

%HC + NOx

%CO

%

The “Technology Enabling” Fuels Story in EuropeThe “Technology Enabling” Fuels Story in Europe-Introduction of unleaded Gasoline --Introduction of unleaded Gasoline -

• Until early 80’s “lead reduction/phase out” initiative in Europe, transport Until early 80’s “lead reduction/phase out” initiative in Europe, transport fuel specifications largely determined by performance concerns rather fuel specifications largely determined by performance concerns rather than environmental concernsthan environmental concerns

• Introduction of unleaded gasoline provided the “enabling fuel” for Introduction of unleaded gasoline provided the “enabling fuel” for introduction of catalyst technology-rate of introduction largely determined introduction of catalyst technology-rate of introduction largely determined by tax incentive of unleaded vs leadedby tax incentive of unleaded vs leaded

• Availability of unleaded gasoline in Europe, for all countries, has led the Availability of unleaded gasoline in Europe, for all countries, has led the demand from catalyst equipped vehiclesdemand from catalyst equipped vehicles

• EU Directive 98/70/EC required complete phase out of leaded gasoline by EU Directive 98/70/EC required complete phase out of leaded gasoline by Jan 1, 2000 Jan 1, 2000

• Derogation for maximum of two years (Jan 1, 2002) granted for countries Derogation for maximum of two years (Jan 1, 2002) granted for countries (southern Europe) with slower fleet turnovers(southern Europe) with slower fleet turnovers

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Per

cen

tag

e o

f U

nle

aded

in

To

tal

Gas

oli

ne

Po

ol

Europe Fastest Slowest

Relationship Between Vehicle Technology Relationship Between Vehicle Technology and Introduction of Unleaded Gasoline in Europeand Introduction of Unleaded Gasoline in Europe

Nor

mal

dea

dlin

e fo

r P

hase

-out

of

lead

edN

orm

al d

eadl

ine

for

Pha

se-o

ut o

f le

aded

Max

Der

ogat

ion

for

Pha

se-o

utM

ax D

erog

atio

n fo

r P

hase

-out

91

/44

1/

91

/44

1/ E

EC

/Eu

ro I

EE

C/E

uro

I

94

/12

/9

4/1

2/ E

C/E

uro

II

EC

/Eu

ro I

I

Why Low Sulfur Fuel?Why Low Sulfur Fuel?

• Lowers Emissions From Existing Vehicles– SO2 From All Vehicles– PM From Diesel Vehicles– CO, HC, NOx, Toxics From All Catalyst

Vehicles

• Enables Advanced Technologies & Tight Standards For New Vehicles

• Enables Retrofit Technologies To Clean Up Existing Vehicles

The “Technology Enabling” Fuels Story in EuropeThe “Technology Enabling” Fuels Story in Europe-Introduction of Lower Sulphur Fuels --Introduction of Lower Sulphur Fuels -

• Lowering of sulphur levels on both Diesel (to 2000ppm) and Gasoline (unleaded to Lowering of sulphur levels on both Diesel (to 2000ppm) and Gasoline (unleaded to 500 ppm) in late 80’s largely driven by direct concerns over urban air quality (SO500 ppm) in late 80’s largely driven by direct concerns over urban air quality (SO22) )

• Further move on Transport Diesel in early 90’s (2000Further move on Transport Diesel in early 90’s (2000 500 ppm largely seen as 500 ppm largely seen as “enabling” step for oxidation catalyst on LD Diesel required to meet 1996 emission “enabling” step for oxidation catalyst on LD Diesel required to meet 1996 emission standards standards

• First European Auto Oil programme (93-96) indicates lower sulphur gasoline First European Auto Oil programme (93-96) indicates lower sulphur gasoline enhances catalyst performance: 2000 limit: 150ppm and 2005 limit at 50ppmenhances catalyst performance: 2000 limit: 150ppm and 2005 limit at 50ppm

• Same programme indicated lower sulphur diesel contributes to lower particulates Same programme indicated lower sulphur diesel contributes to lower particulates both directly and through enabling higher performance technology: 2000 limit: both directly and through enabling higher performance technology: 2000 limit: 350ppm and 2005 limit at 50ppm350ppm and 2005 limit at 50ppm

• More recent concerns over growing COMore recent concerns over growing CO22 contribution from road transport has contribution from road transport has driven move to “Ultra Low” sulphur gasoline and diesel to facilitate “high fuel driven move to “Ultra Low” sulphur gasoline and diesel to facilitate “high fuel efficiency”/“high environmental performance” transport :efficiency”/“high environmental performance” transport :

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Su

lph

ur

Le

vel

mg

/kg

Leaded Gasoline Upper Range

Leaded Gasoline Lower Range

Unleaded Gasoline

Diesel

74

/29

0/

74

/29

0/ E

EC

EE

C

77

/10

2/

77

/10

2/ E

EC

EE

C

78

/66

5/

78

/66

5/ E

EC

EE

C

83

/35

1/

83

/35

1/ E

EC

EE

C

91

/44

1/

91

/44

1/ E

EC

/Eu

ro I

EE

C/E

uro

I

94

/12

/9

4/1

2/ E

C/E

uro

II

EC

/Eu

ro I

I

70

/22

0/

70

/22

0/ E

EC

EE

C

Eu

ro I

IIE

uro

III

Eu

ro I

VE

uro

IV

Relationship Between Vehicle Technology Relationship Between Vehicle Technology and Sulphur in Gasoline & Diesel Fueland Sulphur in Gasoline & Diesel Fuel

The Three-way Catalytic Converter: A Familiar Technology Re-Engineered for High Performance in Close-coupled and

Underfloor Applications

•Layered washcoat architectures and support materials with high thermal stability•Integrated HC adsorption functions• Mounting materials with improved durability• High cell density ceramic or metallic substrates• Insulation schemes for heat management

Maximum Emissions Performance Is Only Achieved With Near Zero Sulfur Fuel

33%

67%

26%

74%

30%

70%

CO/10 HC NOx0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Compared to 150 PPM SulfurPercent Increase

500 ppm 800 ppm

Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel

(Gasoline)(Gasoline)

Impact on Vehicles Meeting EURO 3 Standards

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

PPMFuel Sulfur

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

gram

s/ki

lom

eter

PM

Em

issi

ons

Other PMSulfur

Linkage Between Fuel Sulfur and Linkage Between Fuel Sulfur and PM EmissionsPM Emissions

Oxidation Catalyst

PM Filter

Enabling Emissions ControlEnabling Emissions ControlSulfur Is The Lead of the Sulfur Is The Lead of the

New CenturyNew CenturyGasoline Cars and TrucksGasoline Cars and Trucks

1975 1981 1994 '99 & '01 20040

1

2

3

4

g/m

ile HCNOx

Gasoline Passenger Car Emission Stds

For Catalyzed Cars, Lead Removal is Necessary

Sulfur Reduction is Necessary for Advanced Tech Cars

45%

94%

0%5%

16%

33%

HC NOx PM0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Percent Increase Compared to 150 PPM Sulfur

350 ppm 500 ppm

Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions Increase in In-Use Vehicle Emissions in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel in Bangkok Due To Sulfur in Fuel

(Diesel)(Diesel)

Impact on Vehicles Meeting EURO 3 Standards

European Fuel Sulfur Levels European Fuel Sulfur Levels (PPM)(PPM)

500

150

5010

500

350

5010

0

100

200

300

400

500

Gasoline Diesel

Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5

Widely AvailableIn 2005; 100%In 2009

SingaporeMalaysia

ThailandPhilippines

IndonesiaMyanmar

BruneiIndia

PakistanBangladesh

Sri LankaChina

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

US Cents per Liter

10502503505001,0003,000

Cost of Reducing Sulfur in Diesel Fuel in Asia

(High Sulfur Crude)

Requirement 1996 (Euro 2) 2000 (Euro 3) 2005 (Euro 4) 2009 (Euro 5)

GasolineVapour Pressure (Summer)max kPa

60 60 ?

Benzenemax Vol % 1 1 ?

Aromaticsmax Vol % 42 35 ?

Sulphurmax ppm 500 150 50/10 10

Diesel

Cetane Numbermin 48 51 51 ?

Densitymax kg/m3 845 845 ?

Polycyclic Aromaticsmax Mass % 11 11 ?

Sulphurmax ppm 500 350 50/10 10

Selective EU Fuel Quality Requirements

Gasoline Effects on EmissionsGasoline Effects on Emissions

+ ++

+++

- --

---

2-10 %10-20 %> 20 %

Improvementor

Deterioration}0 2 %

Fuel-

Reduction of :

Benzene

Aromatics

Olefins

Vapor pressure

Adjustment

Volatility

Addition Oxygenates

Regulated

CO

Unregulated

Sulphur

HC NOx Benzene Aldehydechange

Emissions

o + o

o o o

--

++++ ++ +++

+ + +

+ +++ ++ ?

++ +

-

o ooo

o

o/+

o-

-

o

o

o

Butadiene

o

---++

o

o

?

o

---

oo

00_213700_2137

Diesel-Fuel Effects on Diesel-Fuel Effects on EmissionsEmissions

Diesel fuel-change

Reduction of:

Poly-Aromatics

Back End Distillation (T95)

Increase of ...

CO

Sulphur

HC NOx Particulates

+/++

++/o

+++/++ +++/+

Vehicle - Emissions LDV / HDV

Density ++/- ++/

Cetane Number

o o ? / o

o/o- /

++- / o +

o+/o- //- -o/-

o o- /

+/--

-

+Effect + ++

+++ o

- --

---

2-10 %10-20 %> 20 %

Improvementor

Deterioration} - 2 %

Fuel octane under pressure due to elimination of lead

Organo-metallic additives are a cheap way to increase octane

Experience with these additives shows that they can cause

Health problems

Technical problems

MMT is An Emerging Fuels Problem

Implications of Recent Study

“The finding that manganese transport out of the brain occurs via the slow process of diffusion, rather than via carrier-mediated transport, is important: it suggests that no mechanism exists to protect the brain from accumulating manganese. This finding has important implications for neurotoxicity resulting from chronic manganese exposure.”

Experience with MMT China: Blocked catalytic converter

After

33.000 km

Red Deposits of

Manganese-Oxide

Source: Schindler, VW

ICCT Conclusions Regarding ICCT Conclusions Regarding MMTMMT

Considering the available information, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is unable to conclude that the use of MMT will not result in direct adverse health impacts nor that emissions of CO, HC and NOx from catalyst equipped cars will not increase. Based upon the precautionary principle, the California Air Resources Board banned the use of MMT in unleaded gasoline in 1976. In 1996, the Administrator of the EPA stated, “the American public should not be used as a laboratory to test the safety of MMT” (Browner 1996). The ICCT believes this statement to be true for the citizens of every country. Consistent with the precautionary principle, the ICCT recommends that countries delay any use of MMT in gasoline at this time, pending the outcome of ongoing health-based studies and further review of the vehicle impacts.

Copies of the ICCT Report Available at http://www.cleantransportcouncil.org/index.php