Date post: | 08-May-2015 |
Category: |
Technology |
Upload: | peter-cochrane |
View: | 855 times |
Download: | 0 times |
Clear SightedTransparency
Peter Cochrane
COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
cochrane.org.ukca-global.org
Thursday, 5 July 12
Some things are inherently complex... ...and some things are made complex by us!
Thursday, 5 July 12
Networks of all kinds naturally exhibit complexity ...of interaction, behaviours and outcomes!
Thursday, 5 July 12
Networks of all kinds naturally exhibit complexity ...of interaction, behaviours and outcomes!
Interconnection of yeast proteins
Thursday, 5 July 12
Complexity rapidly leads to non-linearity... ...with emergent behaviours...and we have
no real idea what is going to happen!
Thursday, 5 July 12
Thursday, 5 July 12
We have no generalised math framework for dealing with non-linearity...and it may be
fundamentally beyond our capacity!
Thursday, 5 July 12
Our systems and networks will increasingly surprise us if we
continue on the current trajectory !
Thursday, 5 July 12
Although we fully understand layered complexity does not solve the problem, we mostly continue to build more layers in the hope that it might...
Thursday, 5 July 12
Axiom: We are building a global nightmare of over-complex systems at a computing, networking, fixed,
mobile, machine and human level !
Thursday, 5 July 12
Economic and trading markets are prime examples of uncontrolled and misunderstood complexity!
Thursday, 5 July 12
This is not ‘rocket science’, but it is complexity compounded by greed.......
Thursday, 5 July 12
Digital Failures
•Always abrupt•Mostly avoidable•Often caused by people•Unanticipated mechanisms•Increasingly life threatening•Dominantly very expensive•Reputationally damaging/fatal
Thursday, 5 July 12
We m
ust er
adica
te
as muc
h of th
is
from th
e netw
ork
as we c
an
Thursday, 5 July 12
Strange attractors that bring down networks today... .....and tomorrow...
Thursday, 5 July 12
Strange attractors that bring down networks today... .....and tomorrow...
Thursday, 5 July 12
Strange attractors that bring down networks today... ..and tomorrow...
Thursday, 5 July 12
Dumbindustry
solutions like MPLS,
FTTC, +++are a result
of unthinking short termism
Thursday, 5 July 12
Confusion is rife, complexity growing, and a wireless future can’t do it all...
.. everyone of these needs a transparent optical fibre connection
Thursday, 5 July 12
If we started from a clean sheet:- 180km between repeaters not 40km- 30k people instead of 160k- 60 switches not 7000- Gbit/s not Mbit/s
Thursday, 5 July 12
Fibre rich networks instead of fibre sparse - no TPON, GPON, BPON, XPON...- PONS made sense when fibre was 30p/m- But now it is 1p/m they are irrelevant and far too complex- They are also bandwidth limiting- A ‘dog’ to manage- And reduce reliability
Thursday, 5 July 12
By the same token say goodbye to blown fibre...
Thursday, 5 July 12
WDMA instead of TDMA...
...amplification instead of regeneration...
Thursday, 5 July 12
IP over WDM...Ethernet...
Thursday, 5 July 12
Remove coding to reduce latency, lower cost, improve reliability and improve performance...
- Compressing signals to save bandwidth is old thinking- Bandwidth is cheap and near infinite- Coding is expensive
Thursday, 5 July 12
We have to leave this legacy behind...Thursday, 5 July 12
We need to push complexity to the periphery and keep the network ‘essentially simple’...
Thursday, 5 July 12
If we do not, this world will not be realised in the way we would like!
Thursday, 5 July 12
We can only......what the future holds...
Thursday, 5 July 12
But we do know it will be mobile and it will eat bandwidth, lots of bandwidth...
A transition of < 70 years
Thursday, 5 July 12
IP over WDM...Ethernet...
The expectation is anything and everything, anytime, anywhere, any format...instantaneously!
Thursday, 5 July 12
And this has to be global......to be reliable and resilient, it will also be relatively dumb !
Thursday, 5 July 12
Thank Youwww.cochrane.org.uk
Thursday, 5 July 12