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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
Overcoming Policy Constraints to Achieve National Agriculture and Food Security Investment Plans
Shenggen FanDirector General | International Food Policy Research Institute
Agriculture Policy Exchange and Learning EventDakar, Senegal | May 16, 2013
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
African economies and agriculture are rapidly being transformed, but progress is uneven
Weak policymaking and research capacities, and poor data are key constraints
Strengthening capacities is essential for meeting agricultural investment targets
Key messages
Rapid transformation of economies and agriculture,
but progress is uneven
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
Rapid economic growth
Real GDP per capita, SSA Foreign direct investment net inflows, SSA
Zambia
Angola
Tanzania
Malawi
Lesotho
Nigeria
Mozambique
Rwanda
Ethiopia
Ghana
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Average annual real GDP/capita growth, SSA, 2008-2012 (%)
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
-2
0
2
4
6Real GDP/capita Annual real GDP/capita growth (right)
2005
US
$
Per
cen
t
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020110
15
30
45
Bil
lio
ns
(cu
rren
t U
S$)
Source: ERS, USDA 2012 Source: World Bank 2013
Large opportunities also from
• Agriculture
• Natural resources
• Urbanization…Source: ERS, USDA 2012
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
Accelerating agricultural growth
Average annual agricultural growth, SSA
2000-2002 2003-2005 2006-2008 2009-20111.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
Pe
rce
nt
Value of agriculture and food exports, developing Africa
20002002
20042006
20082010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60Agric raw materialsFood
Bill
ion
s (
US
$)
Source: UNCTAD 2013 Source: World Bank 2013
New initiatives for agricultural transformation e.g.• Agricultural Transformation Agency in Ethiopia; Agricultural transformation
agenda in Nigeria
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
BUT poverty and undernutrition remain high
Source: Ravallion (2013)
Number and prevalence of poverty, SSA
Number and prevalence of undernourishment in SSA
Source: FAOSTAT 2013
Prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies, Africa
Vitamin A-deficiency• Over 30% of preschool
age children
Anemia• 60% of pregnant women
Source: HarvestPlus 2011
1990 1999 2008 20150
200
400
600
800
0
20
40
60
80Number of poor
Poverty rate (right)
Mil
lio
ns
Per
cen
t
1990-92 1998-00 2006-08 2010-120
100
200
300
0
10
20
30
40Number of undernourishedPrevalence (right)
Mil
lio
ns
Per
cen
t
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
Alger
ia
Benin
Burkin
a Fas
o
Camer
oon
Centra
l Afri
can
Rep.
Comor
os
Congo
, Rep
.
Djibou
ti
Equat
oria
l Gui
nea
Ethio
pia
Gambi
a, T
he
Guine
a
Kenya
Libe
ria
Mad
agas
car
Mal
i
Mau
ritiu
s
Moz
ambi
queNig
er
Rwanda
Seneg
al
Sierra
Leo
ne
South
Afri
ca
Sudan
Tanza
nia
Tunisi
a
Zambi
a0
5
10
15
20
10% CAADP investment target remains largely unmet
Average annual agriculture expenditure share in total spending, 2003-2010 (%)
• Only 8 countries have met CAADP 10% investment target• 26 countries have signed investment plans
Source: Benin (IFPRI) 2013
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
Agricultural R&D spending is volatile
Agricultural R&D spending volatility, 2000-08
Source: Beintema et al. 2012
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
Dominance of ideology over evidence in policymaking
Emphasis on short-term agric. investments (e.g. subsidies)
over long-term investments (e.g. R&D)
Limited cooperation among countries in e.g.
• Agricultural research and technology development• Infrastructure development• Trade policy
Limited network of researchers, policy analysts, and policymakers
AND many barriers to overall progress remain (policy related)
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
Weak policymaking and research capacities, and poor data
are key constraints
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
Policymaking capacities remain weak
Weak capacity in policymaking and strategy formulation
Weak capacity in setting investment priorities and designing investment plans
Inadequate support for research for improved policymaking
Underinvestment in monitoring and evaluation
Evidence-based policymaking is critical
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
Lack of critical mass of well-qualified researchers
Long-term public sector recruitment restrictions • Senior research staff retirement without clear line of
succession
Low salaries and conditions of service in public agricultural R&D institutes• High staff turn over and “brain drain”
Limited in-country post-graduate training opportunities
Low levels of female participation in research
Research capacity challenges are high
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
Large variation in food policy research capacity
Mozambique
Ethiopia
Rwanda
Uganda
Tanzania
Zambia*
Niger*
Burundi*
Madagascar*
Malawi
Benin
Nigeria
Mali
Kenya
Zimbabwe*
Senegal
Liberia
Ghana
Togo
South Africa
Swaziland
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Full-time equivalent analysts/researchers with PhD equivalent per million rural population, 2011
Nigeria
Rwanda
Niger*
Senegal
Malawi
Tanzania
Madagascar*
Swaziland
Ethiopia
Uganda
Zambia*
Togo
Kenya
Zimbabwe*
Ghana
Mozambique
Benin
South Africa
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Source: Babu and Dorosh (IFPRI) 2013
Publications per full-time equivalent analysts/researchers with PhD equivalent, 2007-11
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
Reliable and timely data is limited
Lack of investments in physical and statistical infrastructure including ICTs and national and sub-national offices
Limited incentives to build up human resource capacity for data collection and analysis
Dearth of data to understand changing agricultural environment
Inadequate feedback from data users
Strengthening capacities is essential for meeting agric. investment targets
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
1. Strengthen research and policymaking capacities
Improve capacities for strategy formulation, policy design, and implementation
Create incentives and opportunities to attract and retain best talents e.g. on-the-job training, merit-based promotion
Increase support for policy research
Invest in monitoring and evaluation systems
Foster partnerships between national agric. research systems and int’l ones, incl. CGIAR
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
IFPRI: Strengthening policymaking capacities Africa Wide (ReSAKSS)
Support for CAADP
Provide analysis, data, and tools for evidence-based decision making
Improve awareness of role or agriculture
Fill knowledge gaps
Promote dialogue
Facilitate benchmarking and review processes
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
Country Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (SAKSS) nodes
Objective: strengthen national capacity for policy analysis, dialogue and review
Country SAKSS nodes to be established include:
• Burkina Faso, Benin, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Malawi, Niger, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
Promote access to and use of state-of-the art modeling tools
Facilitate access to data, improve data quality, bridge data gaps
Support collaboration among leading African scientists
Build dynamic research community that can respond to needs of CAADP’s agenda
IFPRI: Strengthening policymaking capacities (AGRODEP)
Key components: Shared modeling infrastructure, common database platform, network of experts, community of practitioners
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
Ethiopia Strategy Support Program• Research: e.g. agricultural growth options and prioritization of public
investment; determinants of food price shocks
• Capacity strengthening: e.g. economic modeling tools training such as GIS, CGE, micro-econometrics
Ghana Strategy Support Program• Research: e.g. options for enhancing rural and urban linkages; analysis of
fertilizer marketing and pricing
• Capacity strengthening: survey and data management technical assistance to Ghana Ministry of Food and Agriculture
Nigeria Strategy Support Program• Research: e.g. drivers of public investments; improvements in commodity
value chains;
• Capacity strengthening: e.g. research-cum-training and training courses
IFPRI: Supporting development of country strategies
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
2. Accelerate investment in national statistical systems
• Increase investments in statistical and physical infrastructure incl. ICTs, statistical software, and national and regional offices
• Increase knowledge and learning on the changing landscape of agriculture
• Expand and strengthen statistical training at high-school and university levels
• Promote transparent codes of conduct on data collection and analysis
• Beef up public knowledge and awareness campaigns on the benefits of evidence-based decision-making
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Shenggen Fan, May 2013
In conclusion
Evidence-based policymaking and strong national capacities are crucial for achieving food and nutrition
security