Client-level Analysis of Emergency Shelters: 1996-

2006 Columbus and Franklin County, Ohio

RLUS Steering Committee PresentationDecember 5, 2006

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Prepared for the Rebuilding Lives Updated Strategy

Steering Committee

Prepared byStephen Metraux, Ph.D. – University of the Sciences in

PhiladelphiaDennis P. Culhane, Ph.D. – University of Pennsylvania

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Goals

Understand shelter utilization (families and singles) dynamics from 1996 to 2005, including: Trends over time in shelter use (average daily census,

prevalence, length of shelter stays) Relationships between shelter exits & housing

placements Population Demographics “Churning” analyses - family shelters today (& single

adults in February)

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Data Sources

Two administrative data sets: “legacy” data – 1990-2001 HMIS data – 2003-present

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Average Daily Census – Single Adults

Males substantial seasonal fluctuation overall increasing trend in Legacy period (1996-2001) marked decrease 1999-2001 co-occurring with

increases in supportive housing placements overall “flat” trend for HMIS period (2003-2006)

Females less seasonal fluctuation smaller bed capacity steady increase in Average Daily Census in both Legacy

& HMIS periods

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ADC for Single Adult HouseholdsFigure 3a - Average Daily Census for Single Adult Households,

Columbus 1996-2006

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Single Adults (males)Single Adults (females)

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Average Daily Census - Families

substantial seasonal fluctuation overall declining trend in Legacy period (1996-

2001) diversion policies in family shelters adopted in

1999 co-occur with decreased Average Daily Census

overall “flat” trend for HMIS period (2003-2006) size of families households appear to increase

over time during HMIS period

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Average Daily Census for Family Households

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“Front Door” & “Back Door” Dynamics

“Front Door” (i.e., changes in entries to shelter)

“Back Door” (i.e., changes in exits from shelter)

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Figure 10 - Survival Curve of Shelter Episodes - Family HouseholdsColumbus, 1998-2000 & 2003-2005

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52

Weeks

% E

piso

des

Rem

aini

ng

Families -1998-2000Families 2003-2005

Test Chi-Square DF p-value Log-Rank 6.5478 1 0.0105 Wilcoxon 23.7923 1 <.0001

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Shelter Exits, Housing, & Shelter Return Exits from shelter to housing following

successful program completion: Families – 57% Single Adults – Males 15%; Females 31%

Repeat shelter stay subsequent to shelter exit: Families – 10% Single Adults – Males 37%; Females 26%

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Shelter Exits, Housing, & Shelter Return – Regression Findings The longer the shelter episode, the higher the

odds for a household (single adult or family) to exit to a housing placement;

Income increases the odds of receiving a housing placement upon exit, wages increased odds 5-fold.

Housing placement was strongest factor in reducing the hazards of repeat shelter stay

Among families, repeat shelter stays are a relatively rare event.

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Single Adult Demographics – Annual Prevalence and % Male

Single Adults - Male Single Adults - Female N (% total population)

1997 4159 (87.2%) 610

1998 4297 (86.4%) 678

1999 4063 (85.3%) 702

2000 3795 (83.2%) 767

2003 3754 (77.0%) 1122

2004 4025 (76.8%) 1218

2005 3885 (76.2%) 1211

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Single Adult Demographics – Median Age

Single Adults - Male Single Adults - Female

Median Age in years Median Age in years1997 38.0 36.0

1998 38.4 36.9

1999 39.3 37.3

2000 40.2 36.6

2003 41.3 38.0

2004 41.8 38.9

2005 42.6 39.2

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Single Adult Demographics – Race & Ethnicity

Single Adults - Male Single Adults - Female % African/American % African/American

1997 59.0% 57.3%

1998 60.6% 57.3%

1999 60.5% 58.4%

2000 58.5% 59.4%

2003 60.0% 56.7%

2004 59.3% 57.1%

2005 60.3% 56.8%

% Hispanic % Hispanic2003 3.9% 2.1%

2004 4.1% 1.4%

2005 3.8% 1.7%

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Family Demographics – Annual Prevalence & Percent Male

Head of Household Adult Family Members Child Family MembersTotal (% male) Total (% male) Total (% male)

1997 1,563 (13.4%)

1998 1,091 (14.4%)

1999 533 (18.0%)

2000 621 (17.1%)

2003 747 (12.5%) 935 (23.2%) 1,577 (49.8%)

2004 717 (12.8%) 922 (25.2%) 1,558 (51.4%)

2005 705 (14.5%) 914 (25.1%) 1,582 (50.3%)

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Family Demographics – Median Age

Head of Household Adult Family Members Child Family MembersMedian Age in years Median Age in years Median Age in years

1997 31.6

1998 31.7

1999 30.8

2000 31.3

2003 30.3 30.4 6.6

2004 30.7 31.0 6.5

2005 29.9 30.3 6.4

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Demographics of Sheltered Population – Family Households #3

Head of Household Adult Family Members Child Family Members% African/American % African/American % African/American

1997 56.9%

1998 65.9%

1999 65.7%

2000 64.4%

2003 67.9% 66.6% 75.0%

2004 69.2% 67.1% 73.1%

2005 70.9% 69.2% 75.5%

% Hispanic % Hispanic % Hispanic2003 1.9% 2.3% 2.4%

2004 2.8% 2.9% 4.6%

2005 2.7% 2.7% 3.5%

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Other Characteristics of Sheltered Family Households

2003 2004 2005

Employed Heads of Household (%) 14.0% 15.6% 15.2%

Family Size (average) 3.4 3.4 3.5

Number of Children in Family (average) 2.1 2.1 2.2

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Movement Across Shelters Within Episodes - FamiliesOut of 2,175 different shelter episodes, 589

(27.1%) episodes involved two shelters; and 13 (0.6%) involved 3 shelters.

97.1% of the shelter episodes – all but 63 of all the episodes – originated at the YIHN program; all but four multiple shelter episodes originated at YIHN.

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Next Steps

Cluster analysis Income patterns Integrate inventory findings with utilization

findings Intra-episode movement analysis for single

adults

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Questions or Comments?

Contact: Stephen Metraux, Ph.D.

Department of Health Policy and Public HealthUniversity of the Sciences in Philadelphia

600 South 43rd StreetPhiladelphia PA 19104-4495

Tel: (215) 596-7612Fax: (215) 596-7614

Email: s.metraux@usip.edu