CLIM 101 - Fall 2010 Policy Matters CLIM 101: Global Warming: Weather, Climate and Society.

CLIM 101 - Fall 2010

Policy Matters

CLIM 101: Global Warming: Weather, Climate and Society


Policy Responses to Climate Change

• Readings: – Henson, 286-305– Houghton, 290-324

• Today’s topics– Science, Policy and Society– Tragedy of the (Unregulated) Commons– Sustainability and Sustainable Development– History of Attention to Climate Change– UNFCC, COP, Kyoto, and Copenhagen– U.S. Climate Change Legislation




“ --- laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind. As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths discovered and manners and opinions change, with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also to keep pace with the times.”

Thomas JeffersonLetter to George Wythe, August 13, 1790


Tragedy of the (Unregulated) Commons

• Concept: multiple individuals, acting independently, and solely and rationally serving their own self-interest, will ultimately destroy a shared limited resource, even when it is clear that it is not in anyone's long-term interest for this to happen– Free access and unrestricted demand for a finite resource ultimately

reduces the resource through over-exploitation, because the benefits of exploitation accrue to individuals or groups, each of whom is motivated to maximize use of the resource to the point at which they become reliant on it, while the costs of the exploitation are borne by all those to whom the resource is available

– Demand for the resource increases, which causes the problem to increase to the point that the resource is depleted (even if it retains a capacity to recover)

– Related to concept of carrying capacity

Garrett Hardin, "The Tragedy of the Commons", Science, 162, (December 13, 1968), 1243-1248.




Which Countries are Emitting the Most per Capita Greenhouse Gases?


Sources of CO2 in US

Stationary combustion: 3.8 X 103 Tg (67%)Non-stationary combustion: 1.9 X 103 Tg (33%)


Frederick W. Smith, President & CEO, FedEx Corp; Co-chair, Energy Security Leadership Council (ESLC)

• 60% of petroleum used in the USA is imported (up from 30% in the 1970s)

• 90% of all oil reserves are in countries that are not US allies!

• “50% of US defense budget is directly or indirectly related to protecting the oil trade.”

• ESLC recommends - Diversify US transportation fuels: electrification of short-haul personal transportation


Commercial Buildings

• By 2037, there will be four times as many buildings and structures on the planet than exist today (according to Ronald Bogle, President & CEO, American Archeological Foundation)

• US Energy Administration (2007) Report– Buildings contribute 48% of greenhouse gas emissions annually– 76% of all electricity generated by US power plants supplies the built

environment• For example: Washington Metropolitan Area, 2000 2030

– Population: 7.6 million 10.6 million– Employment: 4.4 million 6.4 million – Non-residential development: 3.6 billion ft2 5.2 billion ft2

(According to Robert Puentes, Fellow, Brookings Institution)


Sustainability

• Concept: the capacity to endure. – For ecosystems: remaining diverse and productive over time. – For humans: the potential for long-term maintenance of well-

being, which in turn depends on the well-being of the natural world and the responsible use of natural resources.

• Depends on: – Ensuring environmental adaptability and resilience - maintaining

and enhancing the adaptive capacity of the environment– Preventing irreversible long-term damage to ecosystems and

human health – Decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation -

managing economic growth to be less resource intensive and less polluting SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT


Sustainable Development

Definition:

“The balance of economic growth, social

justice, and environmental health that meets

the needs of present generation and enables future generations to meet their needs.”

Our Common Future (1987)

The Brundtland Report


Sustainable Development - Interesting Question

It is fairly clear that unregulated economic growth leads to environmental degradation

…

Does environmental preservation stifle economic growth?


First Scientific Result: Increases in CO2 will warm Earth’s Climate

1896 Arrhenius

• Considered water vapor feedback• Connected global carbon cycle and warming effects of

increased CO2

• Estimated 500 years to double CO2

History of Discussion on Global Warming - 1


1950: After global temperature rose, 1900 to 1940, The

Saturday Evening Post published:

Is the World Getting Warmer?

1962: Silent Spring by Rachel Carson launched the environmental movement



1970’s: Mixture of messages by scientists/media

1972: Sawyer Nature paper predicted the rise in global means temperature of 0.6ºC in the 20th century

1973: Newsweek published a report (28 April) on the fear of a forthcoming ice age

1974: British documentary “Weathermachine” warned about the possibility of ice sheets covering continents in decades.

1975: Broecker published a paper saying we were on the brink of a pronounced global warming



1979: Time cover shows people fearing cooling

1979: National Academy of Sciences published the Charney report: formal acceptance of global warming due to an increase in CO2

1982: Cold war angst; NRC study of dust in large nuclear exchanges

1985: Discovery of Ozone hole (huge confusion with global warming)– Evidence of fragility of Earth’s atmosphere– Satellite pictures of Earth from space had a psychological

impact on our perception of Earth’s fragility

1990: Nuclear warfare nuclear winter (TTAPS Science paper: Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, Sagan)



1979: Time cover shows people fearing cooling

1979: National Academy of Sciences published the Charney report: formal acceptance of global warming due to an increase in CO2

1982: Cold war angst; NRC study of dust in large nuclear exchanges

1983: Nuclear warfare nuclear winter (TTAPS Science paper: Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, Sagan)

1985: Discovery of ozone hole (huge confusion with global warming)– Evidence of fragility of Earth’s atmosphere– Satellite pictures of Earth from space had a psychological

impact on our perception of Earth’s fragility



History of Discussion on Global Warming - 5Ozone Hole


1988:On a sizzling summer day in Washington, James Hansen, a NASA scientist, testified that he was 99% sure that global warming is upon us.

1988:The New York Times and the Washington Post together published 40 stories on climate change (up from 12 in previous four years).

1988: “Endangered Earth” was named Planet of the Year by Time magazine (instead of its usual “Man of the Year”)



1989: IPCC was formed (IPCC first report, 1991)

1992: “Earth Summit” in Rio (global warming, one of many environmental issues)

1992: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), led by Conference of the Parties, sets an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to tackle the challenge posed by climate change. It recognizes that the climate system is a shared resource whose stability can be affected by industrial and other emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The Convention went into force in 1994 and since has been ratified by 192 countries. Because of the US’s stiff opposition, no binding emission reductions.



Oil, Coal, Auto Industries and Skeptics Speak Out

• Industry lobby groups• Industry supported skeptic scientists• The New York Times and the Washington Post stories on global

warming dropped from more than 70 (1989) to fewer than 20 in 1994

• Skeptics/lobby groups successfully convinced journalists/the public that “global warming was at best an unknown quantity and at worst ideological propaganda … a global fraud” (RG, pp 266)

• Parallels noted to tobacco industry opposition to linking cancer to smoking: – "Doubt is our product," a cigarette executive once observed, "since it is the best

means of competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in the minds of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy.”



1997: Kyoto Protocol: The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the UNFCC. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012.

The US signed the treaty but did not ratify (not submitted to the US Senate); the US Senate voted 95-0 against any treaty that did not include emission cuts from developing countries also.

2004: The Kyoto Protocol became international law on 6 February, 90 days after Russia ratified it (US President George W. Bush withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol).



Regulation of GHG - US EPA

• The US Supreme Court ruled in 2007 in Massachusetts vs. EPA that the EPA has the authority to control emissions from motor vehicle tailpipes and ordered the EPA to issue an endangerment finding.

• EPA has the authority to regulate air pollutants that have “effects on (public) welfare,” “on … weather, … and climate, … as well as effects on… personal comfort and well-being.”

• The EPA Administrator (Stephen L. Johnson), close to issuing such an endangerment finding in 2007 on the basis of “public welfare”, opted for a public comment period after intense pressure from the Bush administration.


Regulation of GHG - US EPA

• The EPA issued a finding on 17 April 2009 for public comment that greenhouse gas emissions pose a danger to the public’s health and welfare. The finding identified carbon dioxide; methane; nitrous oxide; hydro-fluorocarbons; per-fluorocarbons; and sulfur hexafluoride as contributing to global warming.

• “In both magnitude and probability, climate change is an enormous problem”

• “The greenhouse gases that are responsible for it endanger public health and welfare within the meaning of the Clean Air Act.”


22 September 2009


Nature, 22 Oct 09, 1034-1035 – Rift between developed and developing countries – “US in limbo” with House bill passed and Senate still debating

• Senate bill cleared Environment and Public Works Committee on 5 November 2009

– EU has committed to reduce GHG emission by 20% below 1990 levels by 2020; 30% if there is a “global deal”

– Indonesia committed to reduce GHG to 26% below predicted level by 2020; 41% if given international aid to reduce deforestation

– Big problem: money - $100-200 billion/year for low-carbon economy in developing world

– India - no commitments, unless US wants to put $200 billion on table

COP15 - Copenhagen United Nations - Climate Change Conference - 7-18 December 2009



COP15 - Copenhagen United Nations - Climate Change Conference - 7-18 December 2009

• 4 November 2009: President Barack Obama says it is "imperative" the US and EU redouble their efforts to achieve success at the climate change conference next month in Copenhagen.

• 4 November 2009: Chancellor Angela Merkel received standing ovations during her address to the US Congress on Tuesday. However, many Republican lawmakers remained seated when she mentioned the deal to combat global warming.


Status of Climate Change Debatein U.S. Congress

Issues on the table:– Cap and trade– Adaptation– Climate services– Research/USGCRP– Energy efficiency– Renewable energy– Nuclear

Timing: House – passed

“Waxman-Markey” in June 2009; has been on hold since (changing from majority Dem to majority Rep in 2011)

Senate – many committees … outcome very uncertain: Kerry-Boxer bill was

driving Senate debate

No action in 2010

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CLIM 101 - Fall 2010 Policy Matters CLIM 101: Global Warming: Weather, Climate and Society.

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