Clima 2010
Environment &
HVAC
Andrew
EastwellCEO BSRIA
www.bsria.co.uk
2
3
Security of supply
4
5
6
19 reactors providing 19%
of electricity supply
All due to close by 2023
7
8
19 reactors providing 19% of
electricity supply
All due to close by 2023
From nuclear sceptic to
nuclear positive in just 5
years
New planning regulations to
speed development
10 new sites identified
First new station 2017
40% capacity by 2050 being
openly discussed
9
Source:http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm
http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm
10
Source:http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm
11
Electricity Grid supply
structures
Mainly from supply in North
Higher disposable incomes
in South
Greater development in
South
Grid Stress likely
12
Source: National Gas Grid 10 year statement 2009
Supply and demand for gas
13
14
The solution for
UK?
15
16
Energy supply & security
Conclusions
UK will have an electrical capacity problem for at
least the next decade
– Either due to generation limitation
– Or due to power distribution issues
New availability of LNG import facilities means
– GAS will remain king for the time being
New appliances mainly to displace resistance heating
New emphasis on demand management
17
The Carbon Issue
18
19
Applies to government
buildings to which
public have access
Greater than 1000 m2
Annual
Recommendation
report every 7 years
45,000 DECs to date
Current consultation to
extend scope to all
public buildings
20
The scale of change required is huge with the average
building in 2050 needing to be 4 DEC ratings better than
today
Source: DCLG, Carbon Trust analysis
21
22
23
24
25
26
27Source: BSRIA Original research data
UK Building Controls market
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
2008
2007
2006
2005
2008
2007
2006
2005
2008
2007
2006
2005
2008
2007
2006
2005
Com
mer
cial
Fie
ld
Con
trol
ler
Com
mer
cial
Aut
omat
ion
Con
trol
ler
Dom
estic
Fie
ld
Con
trol
ler
Dom
estic
Aut
omat
ion
Con
trol
ler
£Million
Sales by UK Manufacturers Imported Sales Exports
28
UK Renewables market
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0
2008
2007
2006
2005
2008
2007
2006
2005
2008
2007
2006
2005
2008
2007
2006
2005
2008
2007
2006
2005B
iom
ass
Mic
ro C
HP
Hea
t
Rec
over
y
Sol
ar
The
rmal
Hea
t
Pum
ps
£Million
Sales by UK Manufacturers Imported Sales Exports
Source: BSRIA Original research data
29
UK PV market
0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1,000.0 1,200.0
2008
2007
2006
2005
Sola
r P
V
£Million
Sales by UK Manufacturers Imported Sales Exports
Source: BSRIA Original research data
30
Carbon Targets:
Conclusions
Retrofit is the key market
Every carbon reduction technology is required
Decarbonised grid = shift from gas to electricity (2020+)
High renewables % = increased demand management
Passive design + increased control a growing trend
Policy intervention will move uneconomic technologies to
be a more attractive proposition
All assumptions assume a non–catastrophe scenario!