Climate and Energy in a Complex Transition Process towards Sustainable Hyderabad

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies by Changing Institutions,Governance Structures, Lifestyles and Consumption Patterns

Project in the Funding Programme of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF): “Research for the Sustainable

Development of the Megacities of Tomorrow”

International Consortium lead by Humboldt University Berlin

Definition of the problem• Emerging megacity of “Greater Hyderabad”, will

reach 10.5 million inhabitants by 2015• Modernization and urbanization as well as

consumption and lifestyle changes have led to growth in commercial energy use and increasing per capita greenhouse gas emissions

• Hyderabad is predicted vulnerable to climate change in terms of food production, water management, biodiversity and livelihoods

• Severe floods in 2002, strong heat waves in 2003 and altogether three drought years between 2000 and 2007 support this assumption

Hyderabad Urban Agglomeration

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Annual growth: 3-7%; Contribution of in-migration to growth: 25-30%

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Project Design

Dissemination StrategyWP 9

Action PlanWP 8

Food/ Poverty/ HealthResources/ Environment/

Infrastructure

Knowledge Generation

and Application

Institutions and

Governance Structures

WP 2

WP 4 WP 5

WP 3

Communication Strategies

WP 6

Cooperation Strategies

WP 7

WP 1Climate Change

Project Structure

First year's program

Projection of relevant climate/weather variables for Hyderabad

Identification of qualitative climate impact paths

CO2-Emissions from the city

Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Impacts of projected climate change for Hyderabad

Objectives:

projected impacts on food security, health, transport, energy provision, natural resource management

Methods:

historical analogues, mechanistic modelling, expert/stakeholder interviews

Results:

„climate proofing“ of development plans/pilot projects and consideration of adaptation to unavoidable climate change

Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Impact Paths

1.Weather-elements:

(a) Extremes

Extreme rainfall events

Heat spells

(b) Averages

annual/seasonal rainfall

annual/seasonal temperature (of daily min/avg/max)

(c) .....

Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Impact Paths

1.Weather-elements:

(a) Extremes

Extreme rainfall events

Heat spells

(b) Averages

annual/seasonal rainfall

annual/seasonal temperature (of daily min/avg/max)

(c) ....

Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

1954:> 240 mm/day

28/9/1908:408 mm/day

Historical extreme precipitation events in Hyderabad

8-9/8/2008:110 mm/day

22-23/08/2000: 240 mm/day77 slums being completely washed away

Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

2. Impact Diagram (subsection)

Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

............

Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Cross-cutting: Several fields affected by one type of event

Adaptation

Improvement of drainage

Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Adaptation

Improvementof construction

Reckien/Matthias Lüdeke/Reusswig, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Relevant Climate Change Impact Paths for Hyderabadafter a first round of expert and stakeholder consultations(as of July 09)