Climate Change 101

Everything I know about Climate Change I learned at the movies…

200620041995

Presentation Outline

• Greenhouse Effect

• Energy sources

• Emissions

• Correlation

• Future Trends

Notes• Although the Earth’s atmosphere consists mainly of oxygen and nitrogen, neither plays a

significant role in enhancing the greenhouse effect because both essentially transparent to terrestrial radiation. The greenhouse effect is primarily a function of the concentration of water vapor, carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that absorb the terrestrial radiation leaving the surface of the Earth. Changes in the atmospheric concentrations of these greenhouse gases can alter the balance of energy transfers between the atmosphere, space, land and oceans. A gauge of these changes is called radiative forcing. Holding everything else constant, increases in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will produce positive radiative forcing (i.e., a net increase in the absorption of energy by the Earth).

• Water Vapor (H2O) is the most abundant and dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Water vapor is neither long-lived nor well mixed in the atmosphere, varying spatially from 0 to 2 percent. In addition, atmospheric water can exist in several physical states including gaseous, liquid, and solid. Human activities are not believed to affect directly the average global concentration of water vapor, but, the radiative forcing produced by the increased concentrations of other greenhouse gases may indirectly affect the hydrologic cycle.

• As we will soon see, CO2 is by far the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas, so other gases are set to units equivalent to CO2. What is important to note, however, is that some gases have quite large affects and stay in the atmosphere for long periods of time.

• Sulfur hexafluoride is an insulator used in electrical equipment and switches, carbon tetrafluoride is one of a family of perfluorocarbons mostly emitted from the smelting of aluminum)

Source: EPA Global Warming site.http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/climate.html

CO2 CH4 N2O CF4 SF6

Atmospheric Lifetime (years)

50-200 12 114 >50,000 3,200

Pre-industrial Concentration (ppm)

280 0.722 0.270 40 0

Atmospheric Concentration (ppm)

381 1.774 0.319 80 5.4

Rate of Concentration Change (ppm/yr)

1,610 0.005 0.0007 1.0 (ppt/yr)

0.23 (ppt/yr)

Effects of Different Greenhouse Gases

Source: US EPA: US Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports 2008http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html

Presentation Outline

• Greenhouse Effect

• Energy sources

• Emissions

• Correlation

• Future Trends

Fossil FuelsWorld’s Dominant Energy Source

United States (2005)100 QBtu/yr (1.06e14 MJ)

86% Fossil Energy

World (2005) 462 Quads/yr (4.87e14 MJ)

86% Fossil Energy

World Data from International Energy Outlook 2007 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html.U.S. Data from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/fuel.html

Coal26%Coal26%

Oil37%

Gas23%

Nuclear 6%

Gas23%

Nuclear 8%

Oil41%

Hydro 3%

Renewables (solar, wind, geothermal, biomass) 3%

Renewables 8%

Coal23%Coal23%

Renewables 6%100 Quads

Fossil fuels provide 86% of energy

2005

2030

131 Quads

By 2030, reliance on fossil fuels remains

stable at 86%

Coal23%

Nuclear 8%

Renewables 6%

Oil 41%

Gas23%

Coal26%

Nuclear 7%

Oil 40%

Gas20%

+ 31%

Source: AEO 2007

Energy - USA Energy Requirements

Hydro, 3.0

Biomass, 3.2

Muni Waste, 0.4

Biofuels, 5.1

Geothermal, 0.8

Wind, 1.2

Solar, 0.0

Hydro, 2.7

Biomass, 2.2

Biofuels, 0.6

Muni Waste, 0.4

Geothermal, 0.3

Solar, 0.0

Wind, 0.1

6.3 Quads2005

203013.7 Quads

+ 118%

Source: AEO 2008

Renewable Energy Consumption – Growing Fast BUT from a Small Base

Presentation Outline

• Greenhouse Effect

• Energy sources

• Emissions

• Correlation

• Future Trends

All Fossil Fuels and Energy SectorsContribute CO2 Emissions

Industry29%

Industry29%

Commercial18%

Commercial18%

Residential21%

Transportation32%

Transportation32%

Oil44%Oil

44%

Coal36%Coal36%

Natural Gas20%

AEO2007

United States Carbon Dioxide Emissionsby Source and Sector

CO2 and CH4 - The Primary GHG Contributors

Methane9%

Nitrous Oxide5%

HFCs, PFCs, SF6

2%

CO2 fromEnergy

83%

Other CO2

2%

“EIA Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the U.S. 2005”

United States Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Equivalent Global Warming Basis

World Carbon Dioxide Emissions By Region, 2001-2025(Million Metric Tons of C Equivalent)

Carbon Intensity By Region, 2001-2025(Metric Tons of C Equivalent per Million $1997)

…But Carbon Dioxide Emissions are growing

Carbon Intensity is falling…

The Budget is DisappearingCumulative Carbon Emissions 1900-2100 (GtC)

Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization

Today

531283

2010

375 439

2020

322492

2030

638 176

2040

809 5

Spent

Remaining

Source: Dave Hawkins, NRDC, presented at Keystone Energy Forum, Feb. 2004

Presentation Outline

• Greenhouse Effect

• Energy sources

• Emissions

• Correlation

• Future Trends

Atmospheric Concentrations are Rising…

CO2 Concentrations on the Rise(~280 ppm to 370 ppm over last 100 years)

Tem

pera

ture

Cha

nge

from

Pre

sent

(oC

)

Time Before Present (kyr)

CO

2 Con

cent

ratio

n(p

pmv)

200 150 50

350

300

250

200

100 0

2

0

-2

-4

Tatm (Vostok)

CO2 (Vostok)

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics.htm

Presentation Outline

• Greenhouse Effect

• Energy sources

• Emissions

• Correlation

• Future Trends

Possible Harbingers…• Rising sea levels• Spreading disease• Shifting in seasons (e.g., earlier

spring arrival)• Shifting ranges of plant and

animal • Changes in animal and plant

populations• Bleaching of coral reef • Melting permafrost melting• Increased catastrophic weather

(e.g., heavy snowfalls, flooding, ice storms, droughts, fires)

Source: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov and National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

Permafrost and polar ice are melting…

Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

Precipitation is erratic

Significant Climate Anomalies

Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

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