"Climate Change - a global "Climate Change - a global pressing issue”pressing issue”

A.K.M. Saiful IslamAssociate Professor

Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)Bangladesh University of Engineer and Technology (BUET)

“Young Scientists Congress 2009” Organized by BAS and TWAS

Outlines What’s Climate Change & Global Warning? How Climate has Changed? Future Predictions Impact of Climate Change Who’s Responsible ? What needs to be done ?

Mitigation Adaptation Global and National awareness building

Green house Gas and Global warming

Green House GasesAnthropogenic

Emissions CO2 (72%)

CH4 (18%) NO (9%) O3 (1%)

Green house effect

Green house gases act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the

surface which enables it to be substantially warmer than it would

otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse.

Increasing trends of CO2

Human induced changes of green house gases

Global temperature and Greenhouse gases

Temperature variation past 1,000 years

Trends of increase of Temperature

Climate Change due to Global Warming

Cracks in Ice bars

Ice melting Images gathered from the Defense

Meteorological Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic sea ice concentration 1979 (left) and 2003 (right).

1979 2003

Trends of Precipitations

Trends of Seal Surface temperature

Temperature Data Analysis (1947-2007)

Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with a rate of 1.03 0C per 100 years

y = 0.0103x + 25.428

R2 = 0.2996

23

24

25

26

27

1948

1953

1958

1963

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

(c)

Future predictions of climate change

Prediction of Global Warming Figure shows the distribution of warming during the late 21st

century predicted by the HadCM3 climate model. The average warming predicted by this model is 3.0 °C.

Prediction of Temperature increase

Prediction of Sea level rise

Arctic Sea Ice Prediction using community climate system model

Arctic Sea Ice in 2040

Arctic Sea Ice in 2000

Predicted Change of Mean Temperature (0C) using A1B Scenarios

2050 2090

Baseline = 2000

Change of Mean Rainfall (mm/d) using A1B Scenarios

2050 2090

Baseline = 2000

Change of mean climatic variables of Bangladesh using A1B Scenarios

Temperate (0C)Rainfall (mm/d)

Impact of Climate Change

Climate Change Impact for Bangladesh

Increase of intensity and duration of natural disasters such as floods, Cyclones and Storm Surges.

Increase of moisture stress (droughts) due to erratic precipitation

Salinity intrusion due to Sea Level Rise Inundation due to sea level rise leading towards

“Climate Refugees” Effect on health and livelihood of coastal people. Effect on Bio-diversity, Ecology & Sundarbans. Hampered Food Security & Social Security.

What will happen to Artic Polar Bears ?

Antarctic Penguins are watching…

The Sundarbans ..Mangrove forest?

Who is responsible for Climate Change ?

Emission of Green house gases Emission of Co2 Bangladesh < 0.2 Million ton/yr

Global Emission

Per capita responsibility of Co2

What needs to be done?

Facing Climate Change

National Awareness building Capacity Building through Training Innovative Research for knowledge generations

Mitigation Reduce Co2 emission, Use Green technology Use of Alternative Energy sources – Solar, Wind etc.

Adaptation – Build Shelters, Rise Embankments & Polders, Roads, Houses Salinity tolerant crops, Forestation, alternative livelihood,

improve warning system, migrations Global Awareness & Justice

– Kyoto Protocol, COP15, COP16…. Raise our voice !

Thank you