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Climate Change Adaptation 101
Dr. Lara Hansen, Chief Scientist and Executive Director, EcoAdapt
Approaching Adaptation Jennie Hoffman, EcoAdapt
WHMSI III, Asuncion Paraguay
July 24, 2008
Climate Change Adaptation is:
* A set of methodologies to reduce the vulnerability of species, communities, processes, etc. to climate change
* A new way of thinking about what we do and how we do it
-Consider time as well as space-Change is the only constant
1) Protect Adequate and Appropriate Space as dictated by climate change
2) Limit all Non-climate Stresses that are made worse by or worsen the effects of climate change
3) Use Adaptive Management & start testing strategies now
4) Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions to limit the amount of stress
New Conservation Paradigm
1) Protect adequate and appropriate space for a changing world:
• Representation– Networks of reserves– Gradients (latitude, elevation)– Diversity of habitats
• Replication
• Protect resistant and resilient communities
• Create/protect refugia
Adequate/appropriate space, cont’d• Protect ecosystem linkages
– Protect entire watersheds– Protect coastal buffer to allow inland
movement
• Design reserves based on features less likely to change
• Protect key ecosystem features– Breeding grounds– Migratory species stopover areas
© WWF-Canon / Jürgen
FREUND
2) Reduce non-climate stresses likely to negatively interact with effects of climate change
Unsustainable Harvest
Pollution & Habitat Degradation
Invasive Species
©WWF-Canon/ Edward PARKER
©WWF/Kjell-Arne LARSSON
Agriculture & Habitat Fragmentation
3) Employ active adaptive management approaches and start testing strategies
© WWF/ Eric Mielbrecht
“integration of design, management, and monitoring to systematically test assumptions in order to adapt and learn” (Salafsky et al., 2002)
**COMBINE RESEARCH AND ACTION: We need to act now, and we need to learn what works
Identify threats
Describe current status
Define goals/targets
Develop action/monitoring
plan
Implement plan, monitor success
Adjust management
as neededCombine research and action: “Fail early and
often”
4) Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
For some systems resilience building options are scarce and mitigation is needed
• Adaptation: anything that increases a community’s ability to remain intact and functional in the face of climate change
• Resistance: ability to withstand change
• Resilience: ability to recover from change
How do we do adaptation?
1. How vulnerable are the communities, ecosystems, species, social structures, etc. that we care about to climate change? [vulnerability assessment]
2. What can we do to limit or reduce vulnerability/support resistance or resilience? [adaptation planning]
Reducing vulnerability to climate change revolves around two key questions:
Two basic approaches: Top Down and Bottom Up
1. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
Changes in: temperature, precipitation amount and timing, currents, sea level, water chemistry, stratification, etc.
What might change?How much?How soon?
How certain are we?
TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
1. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
2. IDENTIFY IMPACTSWhat ecological effects are likely to result from these changes
(e.g. range changes, timing of seasonal events, species interactions, etc.)?
What cultural, economic, and subsistence effects are likely to result from these changes?
What might change? How much? How soon?How certain are we?
TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
1. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
2. IDENTIFY IMPACTS
3. PRIORITIZE VULNERABILITIES
What critical ecological/social/economic/cultural structures and processes are most resilient? Most at risk?
TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES, SPECIES AND PROCESSES
What variables (ecological/social/economic/cultural) are critical to ecosystem or community function?
What conservation priorities have been identified for the ecoregion?
BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES , SPECIES AND PROCESSES
2. IDENTIFY CLIMATIC INFLUENCES
How do climatic forces influence these key species, structures, processes, priorities, etc.?
BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES, SPECIES AND PROCESSES
2. IDENTIFY CLIMATIC INFLUENCES
3. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
What climatic changes are predicted for the region in question? How will these affect key structures, processes, and priorities?
What will my protected area, farm, etc. look like in 50 years?
BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
How do you use vulnerability assessments to design adaptation strategies?
IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
IDENTIFY IMPACTS
PRIORITIZE VULNERABILITIES
BUILDING ADAPTATION PLANNING INTO YOUR VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
ADAPTATION OPTION:Protect/restore forests
(forests increase retention of moisture in air & soil,
increase rainfall)
PHYSICAL CHANGE:Increasing dryness
1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES, SPECIES AND PROCESSES
2. IDENTIFY CLIMATIC INFLUENCES
3. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
ADAPTATION OPTION:Manage dams to support adequate flow or remove
dams altogether; minimize warming of water by protecting/restoring riverside vegetation
KEY SPECIES:Salmon
CLIMATIC INFLUENCES:River temperature and flow
Climatic Change Likely effects Possible adaptation options
Climatic Change Likely effects Possible adaptation options
Increasing sea level Decreased sea turtle nesting beach habitat
Protect areas inland of beaches to allow natural
shift in location
Altered wind patternsPossible effect on bird migration paths and
energetics
Protect good stopover habitat along migratory routes that may become
more heavily used
Adding in a few complicating factors:
Climate change is not happening in a vacuum
IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
IDENTIFY IMPACTS
IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES
TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING INTERACTIVE EFFECTS
IDENTIFY KEY NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS
What non-climate stressors (e.g. unsustainable land use, conflict over water, wars, etc.) threaten ecosystem or community function in the area of
concern?
IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
IDENTIFY IMPACTS
IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES
TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING INTERACTIVE EFFECTS
IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND NON-
CLIMATE STRESSORS
How will predicted climate changes influence non-climate stressors and vice versa (e.g. increase in drought and demand for fresh
water, increase in heavy rainfall and deforestation, coastal development and sea
level rise)?
IDENTIFY KEY NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS
IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
IDENTIFY IMPACTS
IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIESHow do interactions between climate and non-climate stressors
affect vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning?
TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING INTERACTIVE EFFECTS
IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND NON-CLIMATE
STRESSORS
IDENTIFY KEY NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS
IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
IDENTIFY IMPACTS
IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES
TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING INTERACTIVE EFFECTS
IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND NON-CLIMATE
STRESSORS
IDENTIFY KEY NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS
ADAPTATION OPTION:Focus clean-up efforts on target pollutants; change laws to reduce
maximum allowable levels of target pollutants
NON-CLIMATE STRESSOR:Pollution
INTERACTION:Some pollutants are more toxic in warmer
conditions; others increase heat
sensitivity of animals
Broaden your thinking
• Human communities will change their behavior in response to climate change; what does this mean for conservation of migratory species?
• Changes in one biome can affect another
drought
flood food migration
Warm-phase ENSO(El Niño conditions)
More insect and plant food resources for
pre-migrationconditioning (presumably)
Higher late winterrainfall on wintering
ranges in west Mexico
More fledglingsin Pacific Northwest
Birds migrate earlier, arrive in better condition
Effects of ENSO on
neotropical-wintering species
Courtesy of Institute for Bird Populations
**The relationships between El Nino and rainfall in Central America vary spatially; where birds overwinter influences the effect of El Nino on their population
**The effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on seabirds and hole-nesting birds is reversed at higher and lower latitudes
**Climate change and its effects are also likely to vary spatially.
A few examples of adaptation options
Multiple benefits: hurricane-resistance, sustainable agriculture, better habitat
Cover-crops
Terraces
Interplanting
Breeding salt-tolerant bald-cypress trees in south-eastern US
Water quality and bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef
•Bleaching correlates with water quality as well as temperature
•GBRMPA working with national, regional, local governments as well as watershed landowners/land users to improve water quality
Three things to remember about why to do adaptation:
• Climate change is happening right now
• Climate change is an opportunity for creative new thinking
• Failing to include climate change in your work means your work is vulnerable
Three things to remember about how to do adaptation:• Adaptation is not rocket science (but it does
require a thoughtful approach)
• Context matters – Ecological, Political, Sociocultural, Organizational
• YOU are an expert on your region/species– Combine available data and models with your
understanding of how things work where you are
It’s BREAKOUT TIME!
WE provide information, suggestions, feedbackYOU take the lead:
it’s YOUR day it’s your time for strategic DOING
Go home with something useful!
No one can tell you the best solution for your organization, region, sector, or biome.
YOU create the solution!
Extreme rainfall events become more common
Increased sedimentation of reefs, mangroves, sea turtle nests
Increased soil erosion River organisms stressed by extreme currents, turbidity
Sample top-down approach
Predicted Physical Changes:
Ecological Effects:
Human Community Effects:
Loss of crops
Loss of coastal protection
Loss of habitat for commercially or culturally important species (e.g. crabs, fish, shrimp, turtles, manatees)
Loss of coral reef tourism
Mangrove forests
Sample bottom-up approach
Predicted Change:
Climatic influences:
Key structures, processes, etc:
Sediment input: too much can smother trees, too little reduces accretion rate
Submergence time: determines location of trees
Temperature: Min/max temp tolerance
Increasing temp increases evaporation, can increase salinity, stressing trees
For intermediate rates of sea level rise, mangroves shift inland
If sea level rise is slow, soil accretion keeps pace and mangroves stay put
For rapid sea level rise, mangroves drown