Climate Change Adaptation and Community Resilience in Flood Risk Management
Professor Jochen Schanze PhD1,2
1 Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development (IOER)
2 Chair of Environmental Development and Risk Managment, Technische Universität Dresden
WORKING GROUP F – SHORT WORKSHOP Flood Preparedness, Resilience and Adaptation
9th to 10th March 2015, Brussels
Contents
1. Climate change challenges for flood risk management
2. Anticipation and resilience
3. Scenario-based anticipation approaches
4. Resilience of constructions and organisations
5. Conclusions
Contents
1. Climate change challenges for flood risk management
2. Anticipation and resilience
3. Scenario-based anticipation approaches
4. Resilience of constructions and organisations
5. Conclusions
Environment Human
Climate change
Societal change
Adaptation options(Measures, instruments)
Risks
Opportunities
Climate-sensitive human-environment-system
Projectionsof change
Consequences withuncertainties
Flood hazard(likelihood ofmagnitude)
depending onclimate change
and societal change
Flood vulnerability(value/function,
susceptibility, coping capacity)
depending onsocietal change
Exposure
Climate sensitive flood risk system
Schanze & Sauer
(2011, modified)
Challenges of local climate change impact assessment
Complexity of cause-effect interrelations in a flood risk system involves
Multiple environmental compartments (e.g. soil),
Multiple societal utilisations (e.g. land use)
Uncertainty of future development of the system covering
Aleatory uncertainty due to lack of knowledge on the system’s behaviour and change
of boundary conditions such as climate and parallel societal change
Epistemic uncertainty due to quality of data and models for system analysis, future
projections and impact assessment
Contents
1. Climate change challenges for flood risk management
2. Anticipation and resilience
3. Scenario-based anticipation approaches
4. Resilience of constructions and organisations
5. Conclusions
Anticipation and resilience
According to Wildavski (1988) there are two complementary approaches on how
to deal with the future and uncertainties involved (cf. also e.g. Comfort 1994),
Wadekker et al. 2010):
Anticipation of known or possible future change of the systems as a prerequisite
of (conscious) adaptation (cf. Smit & Wandel 2006, de Bruijne et al. 2010)
Anticipation is based on e. g trends, prognosis, probabilities, scenarios
Adaptation refers to alteration of the system to changing boundary conditions
Resilience as capacity of the system to treat any known and unknown future
Resilience in a narrow sense regards to “bounce back” after disturbance
Resistance as invers concept of susceptibility as capacity to withstand stress
Resilience and resistance can be seen as two key components of vulnerability
Anticipation and adaptation
Anticipation as approach tries
to describe the system’s future development
to assess all impacts with their likelihood
Adaptation as approach envisages
to keep the system’s state constant and hence reduce negative impacts
to maximise efficiency (partly even sustainability) referring to the system’s impacts and
the respective efforts (cf. de Bruijne et al. 2010)
Background
Resilience has no universal meaning (e.g. Gallopin 2006)
Therefore resilience is understood just as “boundary object” (Brand & Jax 2007)
Key features
Systems ability to retain characteristic elements, structures and processes (and reorganise
while undergoing change; Walker et al. 2004) in case of change of (creeping) or disturbance
(sudden) from boundary conditions
Further system-specific features (e.g. for natural or social systems) may be derived
Resilience may be measurable to a certain extent (e.g. tipping points)
Normative dimension
Resilience is descriptive in the first instance; evaluation needs goals or targets / thresholds
Normative notion (e.g. Folke 2006, Ernstson et al. 2010) may narrow value
Resilience
Realms with relevance of adaptation and resilience
Individual system elements (subjects, object)
Human beings
Constructions (e.g. buildings, infrastructure assets)
Groups of system elements
Social groups, communities, organisations
Construction complexes and networks
Sub-systems
Natural sub-systems (e.g. natural components of landscapes)
Technological sub-systems
Social (e.g. organisation networks), economic and political sub-systems
Human-environment systems
e.g. flood risk systems
Management and governance
e.g. strategies (and cooperation) of stakeholders / actors
e.g. institutional setting
cf. de Bruijne et al. (2010)
Contents
1. Climate change challenges for flood risk management
2. Anticipation and resilience
3. Scenario-based anticipation approaches
4. Resilience of constructions and organisations
5. Conclusions
Storylines of scenario-based anticipation
Globalisation,low regulation,
interdependence
Market orientation,neoliberalism,
technocentrism
Storyline A:Globalised and market oriented region
Storyline B:Regional andmarket orientedregion
Storyline D:Regional, social and sustainable oriented region
Storyline C:Global, social and sustainable oriented region
Trend –conventional current development
SzB
SzA
SzD
SzC
Present (2005) Future (2050)
Solidarity, equity, ecocentrism
Regionalisation,high regulation,
autonomy
Luther & Schanze
(2008, modified)
Modelling the flood risk system (example)
Climate change projections (STAR, REMO)
Coupled Extreme Value Statistics
WAVOS
LISFLOOD
SMS
Management river and floodplain
Change/Management land use
WAVOS SMS HOWAD
Modifiable Digital Terrain Model
Settlement
Dike/Flood polder
Multicriteria evaluation of retention potential and futures
Schanze (2007)
Neubert, Naumann & Deilmann (2008)
Simulation of flood risk for scenarios Scenarios ‘baseline‘ and ‘B‘ (STAR A2, 2050, 1:200yrs)
…0
5
10
15
20
25
A B C D
SE
W in
10
00
€/a
Entwicklungsrahmen
HA "Resilienz" II
HA "Kombination" III
RA "Aktuelle Praxis" 0
Scenarios
Dam
age
expecta
ncy
valu
ein
1000 €
/yr
Strategic alternatives
Luther (2009)
Robustness of strategic alternatives as criterion for climate change adaptation
Contents
1. Climate change challenges for flood risk management
2. Anticipation and resilience
3. Scenario-based anticipation approaches
4. Resilience of constructions and organisations
5. Conclusions
Resilience and resistance of buildings
(A) Flood resistance
Construction of the building to prevent flood water entering the building and damaging its fabric
(B) Flood resilience
Construction of the building in such a way that minimises water ingress and allows fast drying and easy cleaning without any permanent damage
Golz & Nikolowski (unpublished, modified)
Operationalisation of resilience for physical systems
Quantitative definition of resilience for a functional system in the case of
disruptive event and in the case of full recovery (Bruneau et al. 2003)
Resilience
Functionality [%]
Uncertainties(from classicalrisk analysis)
Event Time (ifistantaneous)
Recoverytime (in the case of 100% recovery)
Rapidity
Examples of resilience measures
Condensation dryer Adsorption dryer
Heating and ventilation Microwave dryer
Moisture damage
Testing of resilient construction
Golz & Nikolowski (unpublished)
Analysis of flood risk management stakeholders (example)
Sempijja (2013)
Aspects of resilience: General explanation:
1. Omnivorousness of
the FRM strategy
Diverse kinds of resources that can be used for management; the less
likely is the management to become unstable because of a supply failure of a single resource (Wildavsky, 1988: 113; Wardekker et al., 2010)
2. Agile and timely flow
of response rate ofthe FRM strategy
Conditions for quick distribution of resources. The higher the rate of
resource flux through the management system, the more resources areavailable per unit time to help deal with perturbations) (Wildavsky,1988: 113)
3. Homeostasis of the
FRM strategy
Awareness (knowledge) of flood risk & maintenance of FRM strategy
based on learning etc. (Wildavsky, 1988: 114; McManus et al. 2007)
4. Flatness of response
process and structure of the FRM strategy
Decentralised decision making and flatness of inter-organisational
pyramid of the management strategy (Wildavsky, 1988: 114)
5. Redundancy of
response resourcesfor FRM
Redundancy insures reliability. Resources reserved, lay slack, and
saved for possible use during crisis (Wildavsky, 1988: 115)
6. Buffer capacity of
the FRM strategy
Capacity far beyond designedperformance (Wildavsky,1988: 116)
Aspects for characterisation of organisational resilience
Atanga (in prep.)
Contents
1. Climate change challenges for flood risk management
2. Anticipation and resilience
3. Scenario-based anticipation approaches
4. Resilience of constructions and organisations
5. Conclusions
Conclusions
Climate change impacts on flood risk and flood risk management are not just complex but also highly uncertain
Anticipation and resilience are two approaches for dealing with the aleatory uncertainty
Both approaches could address the physical world as well as management strategies and hence should be based on common consistent concepts
However, requirements for treatment with the physical and organisational issues require specific views
While some advancements have been reached in anticipation and description of physical resilience, there is still a lot to do to also consider organisational resilience
Particular, combination of anticipation and resilience seems to be a pressing challenge of flood risk management
Climate Change Adaptation and Community Resilience in Flood Risk Management
Thank you very much for your attention.
Contact: [email protected]
1 Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development (IOER)
2 Chair of Environmental Development and Risk Managment, Technische Universität Dresden
WORKING GROUP F – SHORT WORKSHOP Flood Preparedness, Resilience and Adaptation
9th to 10th March 2015, Brussels