Date post: | 18-Dec-2015 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | elwin-phillips |
View: | 215 times |
Download: | 1 times |
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONS AND AGRI-EXTENSION PUNJAB
DR MUHAMMAD ANJUM ALIDIRECTOR GENERAL AGRICULTURE
(EXTENSION AND ADAPTIVE RESEARCH)PUNJAB
CLIMATE CHANGE IS NO MORE AN ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN. IT HAS
EMERGED AS THE BIGGEST DEVELOPMENTAL CHALLENGE FOR THE
PLANET. ( UNDP 2009)
CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE
Agriculture sector being closely tied to natural resource base is more vulnerable to
climate change
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EXTREME EVENTS
FOOD SYSTEM
CROPPING SYSTEM
CROPS AND LIVESTOCK
RISKS
RISKS ON AGRICULTURE
Affects Livelihood, Food Security and Economy• CROPS, Low productivity and poor Quality of produce• Land-Man Ratio• Soil and Water Resources, Degradation and Depletion• Deforestation and Desertification• Soil Health and Depletion of nutrients• Soil, Water and air Contamination• Flooding
TEMPERATURES, HUMIDITY, RAINFALL
CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONSClimatic Variability and Extreme Events• –Temperature Rise: 0.2 degree Centigrade per decade • –Mean Summer Rainfall to increase• –Frequent and Longer dry spells• –Shorter but Heavier Precipitation Events• –Hot Extremes, Heat Waves to be more common • –Contraction of Snow Cover• –Rise in Sea Levels Degradation of Natural Resources (Land/Water/Bio-diversity)
Directorate of Adaptive Research PunjabAdaptive Research, Farms Adaptive Research, Stations
ADAPTIVE RESEARCH
SYSTEM IN PUNJAB
CHAKWAL ZONE• Adaptive Research Farm Chakwal is located
between Latitude 32 – 56o N & Longitude 72 – 44o E. The Altitude is 450 – 1050m. Cool sub-humid climate. The annual Rain Fall is 200-700 mm.
• Barani area. Groundnut, wheat, Sarsoon, Millet and Sorghum are the major crops. Soil, eroded losses.
• Rawalpindi, Attock, Chakwal & Jhelum districts falls under this zone.
GUJRANWALA ZONE• Adaptive Research Farm Gujranwala is located
between Latitude 32.16o N & Longitude 74.18o –E. The Altitude is 226 m. The annual Rain Fall is 396-992 mm
• Rice tract. Dominant cropping system rice-wheat-rice. Soil mainly clay loam. Tube-well supply.
• Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Sialkot, Narowal, Gujrat and M.B Din districts falls under this zone.
SHEIKHUPURA ZONE• Adaptive Research Farm Sheikhupura is located between
Latitude 31o – 42o N & Longitude 73o – 59o E. The Altitude is 209.57 m. Moist sub-humid climate. The annual Rain Fall is 250 – 500 mm.
• Rice tract. Main crop rotation rice-wheat-rice. Soil varies from clay loam to sandy loam. Canal irrigated supplemented with tube-well supply.
• Lahore, Sheikhupura, Nankana Sahib and Kasur districts falls under this zone.
SARGODHA ZONE• Adaptive Research Farm Sargodha is located between
Latitude 72.40 – 16o N Longitude 32.5 – 1o E. The Altitude is 187 m. The climate is semi-arid to arid. The mean annual rainfall is 300 to 500 mm in the east and 200 – 300 mm in the southwest.
• Mixed cropping zone. Wheat, Sugarcane, Rice, Cotton, Maize and Citrus (Fruits) are the main crops. Soil loam to sandy loam, saline in nature. Under ground water, generally not good.
• Sargodha, Khushab, Faisalabad, Jhang, Chiniot and T.T Singh districts falls under this zone.
VEHARI ZONE• Adaptive Research Farm Vehari is located between
Latitude 30.02 - 31o N & Longitude 72.21 – 10o E. The Altitude is 135 m. Hot Arid climate. The annual Rain fall is 125 – 275mm.
• Cotton zone. Cotton, wheat, citrus, Potato, Maize and mango (fruits) are the dominant crops. Soil, sandy loam, perennial canal supply supplemented with tube wells.
• Multan, Vehari, Lodhran, Khanewal, Sahiwal, Okara, Pakpattan and Bahawalnagar districts falls under this zone.
KAROR(LAYYAH) ZONE• Adaptive Research Farm Karor (Layyah) is located
between Latitude 30.58o N & Longitude 70.56o E. The Altitude is 143 m. Arid climate. The annual Rain Fall is 150-250 mm
• Thal zone. Gram and guara are the major crops. Soil, deserts having the peculiar sandy soils. In plain valleys canal irrigation. Under ground water, fit for irrigation in pockets
• Layyah, Muzaffargarh, Bhakkar & Mianwali falls under this zone.
DERA GAZI KHAN ZONE• Adaptive Research Farm Dera Ghazi Khan is
located between Latitude 29.31o N & Longitude 69.71o E. The Altitude is 210 m. Hot arid climate. The annual Rain Fall is 80 – 100 mm.
• Cotton zone. Cotton, wheat, sugarcane and sorghum are the major crops. Soil heavy clay, sub-mountainous. Perennial and semi, perennial canal supply. Hill torrents. Under ground water mostly unfit.
• D.G Khan & Rajanpur districts fall under this zone.
RAHIM YAR KHAN ZONE• Adaptive Research Farm Rahim Yar Khan is located
between Latitude 27.40 – 29.16o N & Longitude 60.45 – 70.01o E. The Altitude is 81m. Hot Arid climate. The annual Rain Fall is 80-150 mm.
• Cotton zone. Cotton, wheat, Mango and sugarcane are the major crops. Soil sandy loam having saline tracts. Perennial canal supply. Under ground water, mostly unfit.
• Bahawalpur & R.Y Khan districts falls under this zone.
PUNJAB AGRICULTURE
S.No. Crop Cropped
Area% Age S.No. Crop Cropped
Area % Age
PUNJAB TOTAL 41,021 100 7 Maize 1460.4 3.6
1 Wheat 16154 39.4 8 Bajra 1010 2.5
2 Cotton 5705 13.9 9 Jowar 408 1.0
3 Fodder 4553 11.1 10 Potato 398 1.0
4 Rice 4229 10.3 11Rapeseed/Mustard
328 0.8
5 Gram 2261 5.5 12 Others 2618 6.4
6 Sugarcane 1897 4.6
Thousand Acres Cultivated Area = 31.054 Million AcresCropped Area = 41.021 Million Acres
PUNJAB AGRICULTURE
PUNJAB’S SHARE IN NATIONAL PRODUCTION
Crop 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Av.
2008-12
Wheat
74.47
76.64 76.87 75.52 75.88
Rice
54.06
56.40 57.95 60.16 57.14
Cotton
77.75
74.04 66.23 67.94 71.49
Sugarcane
63.06
64.53 63.44 67.77 64.70
Maize
74.74
73.41 76.68 79.83 76.17
Gram
81.65
88.89 86.91 86.51 85.99
AREA UNDER DIFFERENT CROPS
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
7000.0
COTTON Area (000 Acres)
Area(000 Acres)
Axis Title
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
12500.0
13000.0
13500.0
14000.0
14500.0
15000.0
15500.0
16000.0
16500.0
17000.0
17500.0
WHEAT Area (000 Acres)
Area(000 Acres)
Axis Title
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
RICE Area (000 Acres)
Area(000 Acres)
Axis Title
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
SUGARCANE Area (000 Acres)
Area(000 Acres)
Axis Title
AREA OF CROPS IN DIFFERENT AGRO-
ECOLOGICAL ZONES
COTTON Area (000 Acres)
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Cotton (Area 000 Acres
SheikhupuraGujranwalaSargodhaChakwalD.G.KhanVehariLayyahR.Y.Khan
Axis Title
SUGARCANE Area (000 Acres)
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
SUGARCANE Area (000 Acres)
SheikhupuraGujranwalaSargodhaChakwalD.G.KhanVehariLayyahR.Y.Khan
Axis Title
VULNERABILITY OF CLIMATE
1.RAINFALL2.MINIMUM TEMPERATURE3.MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE4.RELATIVE HUMIDITY5.PEST AND DISEASES6.SOIL DEGRADATION7.WATER AVAILABILITY
RAINFALL PATTERN IN DIFFERENT AGRO-
ECOLOGICAL ZONES
GUJRANWALA
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
50
100
150
200
250
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
R.Y. KHAN
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
VEHARI
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
SHEIKHUPURA
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
CHAKWAL
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
LAYYAH
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
D.G. KHAN
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
SARGODHA
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
20
40
60
80
100
120
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE PATTERN IN DIFFERENT
AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONES
GUJRANWALA
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Min Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
R.Y. KHAN
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Min Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
VEHARI
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Min Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to MarchAxis Title
CHAKWAL
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Min Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
SHEIKHUPURA
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Min Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
LAYYAH
2004200520062007200820092010201120120
5
10
15
20
25
30
Min Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
D.G. KHAN
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
5
10
15
20
25
30
Min Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to MarchAxis Title
SARGODHA
2004200520062007200820092010201120120
5
10
15
20
25
30
Min Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PATTERN IN DIFFERENT
AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONES
R.Y. KHAN
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Max Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
GUJRANWALA
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Max Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
VEHARI
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Max Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to MarchAxis Title
SHEIKHUPURA
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Max Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
CHAKWAL
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Max Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
LAYYAH
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Max Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
D.G. KHAN
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Max Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
SARGODHA
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Max Temp
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
HUMIDITITY PATTERN IN DIFFERENT AGRO-
ECOLOGICAL ZONES
GUJRANWALA
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Humidity
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
R.Y. KHAN
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Humidity
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
VEHARI
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Humidity
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
SHEIKHUPURA
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Humidity
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
CHAKWAL
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Humidity
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
LAYYAH
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201250
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
Humidity
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
D.G. KHAN
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
Humidity
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
SARGODHA
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Humidity
AV. April to Sep.Av. Oct to March
Axis Title
PESTS AND DISEASES
THRIPS INFESTATION TREND ON COTTON
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
% Hot Spots
Note: Optimum temperature and humidity required for growth of thrips is >35C and <60%, respectively
COTTON MEALY BUG INFESTATION ON COTTON
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
% Hot Spots
Note: Optimum temperature and humidity required for growth of cotton mealy bug is 30-40 C and 60-65%, respectively
MITES INFESTATION TREND ON COTTON
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
% Hot Spots
Note: Optimum temperature and humidity required for growth of mites is >35C and <50%, respectively
DUSKY COTTON BUG INFESTATION TREND ON
COTTON
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
% Hot Spots
Note: Optimum temperature and humidity required for growth of dusky cotton bug is 28-40 C and 50-80%, respectively
COTTON LEAF CURL VIRUS TREND ON COTTON
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00% Spots Infected
NUTRIENT DEPLETION OVER PERIODSoil K (ppm)
250 Soil
Organic
Matter (%)
10
240 8
230
Soil P (ppm)
220 4 Y=0.83-0.02x (OM)Y=250.70-3.52x (K)Y=5.89-0.23x (P)
210 2
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
6
AARI REPORTS
WATER AVALIBILITY
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Actual Supply
KharifRabi
Axis Title
Estimated 13/14
Share. Rabi. 34.65 MAF, Kharif 19.75 MAF
POPULATION OF PUNJAB (Million Ton)
2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30 2034-35 2039-40 2044-45 2049-500
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
93.7
103.8
112.9
121.2128.3 130.3
137.5144.6
151.8
Population in MillionCourtesy. AARI Report
WHEAT PROJECTIONS (Million Ton)
2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30 2034-35 2039-40 2044-45 2049-500
5
10
15
20
25
30
17.76
19.69
21.4
22.9824.32 24.71
26.06
27.42
28.77
Tentative Wheat Requirement Million Ton in Punjab
AARI REPORTS
RICE PROJECTIONS (Million Ton)
2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30 2034-35 2039-40 2044-45 2049-500
1
2
3
4
5
6
3.3
3.66
3.98
4.284.53 4.6
4.855.1
5.35
Tentative Rice Requirement Million Ton in Punjab
SUGARCANE PROJECTIONS (Million Ton)
2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30 2034-35 2039-40 2044-45 2049-500
10
20
30
40
50
60
36.11
40.03
43.51
46.7249.45 50.24
52.99
55.75
58.5
Tentative Sugarcane Requirement Million Ton in Punjab
COTTON PROJECTIONS (Million Ton)
2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30 2034-35 2039-40 2044-45 2049-500
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
9.64
10.69
11.62
12.47
13.2 13.41
14.15
14.88
15.62
Tentative Cotton Requirement Million Ton in Punjab
WAY FORWARD1. Development of Drought, Submergence, Salt,
Temperature, resistance varieties/ crops for different climatic regions2. Adaptive Research System shall be fortified to meet the
new challenges3. Education, Extension and Aggressive awareness about
vulnerability of Climate Change for its preparedness 4. Use in ICT in Agriculture Extension in Punjab5. Strengthening of Linkages with Pakmet and other
institutes6. Promotion of low delta water crops instead of high
water delta crops.
WAY FORWARD7. Adjustment in sowing time of crops i.e. recommended
last date of sowing of wheat has been changed from 10th November to 20th November.
8. Promotion of Laser Land Leveling, Ridge/bed sowing of crops to overcome the problem of water scarcity and save the crops from high rains.
9. Contingency Plan for each Agro-Ecological zone has been prepared
10.Flood Management plan (Pre-flood, During Flood and after Flood circulated
THANKS
PRE-FLOODCreate awareness among the farming community through farmer trainings, print and electronic media;To secure seed, fertilizer, tools, implements and farm machinery ete. at safer places.1. To make safety measures for tube well boring and engine.2. To secure Bhoosa and dry fodders at safer places.3. To secure vegetables, fodder and seed.4. To motivate farmers from un-flood/safe area farmers to grow more
fodders.5. Agro-met reports and other alerts about rains for farmers.6. To promote water loving crops in and around river beds and flood
plains 7. Promotion of Sugarcane and Rice in riverside areas having
maximum chances of flood water movement rather than Cotton.8. Encourage the farmers to locate relatively safe places having
less marching time to shift livestock there at once.
1. To survey and assess the damage of crops (area and production).
2. To coordinate with Livestock, Water Management and Fisheries
3. Departments in the assessment of damages and re-habilitation.
4. To assist in Seed and Fertilizer/Inputs distribution campaign.
5. To motivate the farming community to grow more fodder and early season Rabi crops as well as Vegetables/Kitchen Gardening
6. To provide pumps for drainage of water from sensitive crops like Mango and Cotton.
7. To educate the farmers for use of agronomic and plant protection measures for safety of their orchards and crops.
AFTER FLOOD
8. For early recovery of flood inundated land, 13ulldozer operation is unavoidable. Uptill now, more than 1,15,000 hours of Bulldozer work has been carried out to rehabilitate the flood ruined land of last year floods.
9. The rehabilitation work is performed on the requests of Departments/Authorities stated above and after depletion of flood water on the requests of farmers under existing Hiring Policy Rules.
10.Due to soil deposition, the fields become un-leveled after flood.11.Proper leveling may be done. Laser leveling is the best option.12.Renovation of irrigation system and repair of
watercourses/minors should be done at the earliest.13.After drainage of flood water when fields attains desired
moisture level (Watter) they should be cultivated and the possible crops like vegetables, pulses, fodders etc. should be sown.
.
AFTER FLOOD
14. Government should facilitate the provision of Seeds, Fertilizers and other necessary inputs for the rehabilitation of the farming system to offset the flood losses
15. Rehabilitation of road and paths may be done at top priority as they play key role in linking Farms with Markets.
16. Damaged crops may be incorporated in the soil to enhance the organic matter, which will improve the soil structure.
17. Excess water from the orchards may be drained as early as possible.
18. There should be enough food reserves in flood safe areas to cater the food of flood affected peoples.
19. Significant arrangements should be in place to ensure vaccination of farm animals.
AFTER FLOOD