Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Africa
Josue DioneDirector, Food Security and Sustainable
Development Division (FSSD)UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA)
Outline Agriculture, food security and poverty reduction
Under-investment in, under-capitalization and poor performance of agriculture
Implications for agricultural R&D
Compounding impacts of climate change
Additional challenges for agricultural R&D
Agriculture, Food Security and Poverty Reduction 70% of the poor in Africa live in rural areas Livelihoods of 90% of rural people depend directly or
indirectly on agriculture 60% of the total labor force is employed in agriculture Large proportion of urban employment is linked to
agriculture (esp. women in informal sector) Urban poor spend 60% of their budget on food Strong link between agricultural growth and overall
economic growth (1.5-2.7 multipliers)
Under-investment in Agriculture Decrease in the proportion of public spending on
agriculture from 6.4% in 1980 to 4.5% in 2002 – AU Maputo 2003 Summit commitment to increase this at 10% minimum by 2008
Decline in public spending on agricultural research from 0.93% of agricultural GDP in 1981 to 0.69% in the 1990s (compared to 2.4% in industrial countries)
Fall of official development assistance to agriculture by 65% between the late 1980s and late 1990s
Under-capitalization of Agriculture Only 6% of the arable is irrigated, against 40% in Asia
20 kg of fertilizer per hectare of arable land in Africa (8 kg/ha in SSA), i.e. 22% (and 9%) of world average
Tractors per 1000 ha of arable land: 3 times less than in Asia and 8 times less than in Latin America
Road density is 2.5 times less than in Latin America and 6 times less than in Asia
Poor rural access to energy and telecommunications
Institutions of agricultural education, research and extension are poorly staffed, under-equipped and under-funded
Poor Performance of Agriculture Land productivity at 42% of that in Asia and 50% of that in
Latin America
Labor productivity at 60% of that in Asia and Latin America
Sharp fall of share of global agricultural exports from 15% in the mid-1960s to 5% in 2000
Food imports increasing at 3.2% per year, from US$ 13 bn in 1990-92 to US$ 20 bn in 2002-04
Close to US$ 2bn of food aid per year
Yet, over 25% of Africa’s population is undernourished
Implications for Agricultural R&D Challenge of addressing, for structural and sustainable
development of African agriculture, issues of/gaps in:• Technologies• Infrastructure • Institutions• Policies
Not only at farm level, but throughout value chains of strategic food and agricultural commodities (maximum efficiency + minimum transactions costs)
Compounding Impacts of Climate Change Projected impacts of CC on agriculture from IPCC
Assessment, Stern Review and other major studies:
• Reduced rainfall: up to 10% decrease in Southern Africa and parts of the Horn of Africa by 2050
• Reduced water resources from major glaciers (Kilimanjaro, Kenya, Rwenzori), major lakes (Victoria, Chad) and rivers (e.g. Nile, Niger, Zambezi)
• Reduced area suitable to agriculture: increase in arid and semi-arid areas by 60-90 million hectares
Compounding Impacts of Climate Change Reduced soil moisture storage capacity, quality and
fertility with higher temperatures
• Reduced length of growing seasons: by more than 20% in the Sahel by 2020 with an additional 0.4°C
• Increased proliferation of pests and incidence of pest attacks
• Constrained availability of human resources (labour) due to expanded range and prevalence of vector-borne diseases (in addition to HIV/AIDS)
Compounding Impacts of Climate Change Reduced crop yields from rain-fed agriculture by up to 50%
in many countries – and income by 11% (irrigated agriculture) to 31% (dryland agriculture) – Cline 2007
• Reduced productivity and increased production cost of livestock (reduced feed and fodder availability)
• Reduced fisheries resources from lakes due to rising temperatures
• Increased food insecurity and poverty for hundreds of people more, under business as usual
Additional Challenges for Agricultural R&D Developing value chains of selected strategic food
and agricultural commodities within a framework of regional integration
Adopted by AU/NEPAD Food Security Summit of December 2006:
• Rice, maize, legumes, cotton, oil palm, beef, dairy, poultry and fisheries products at continental level
• Cassava, sorghum and millet at regional level
Additional Challenges for Agricultural R&D Linking the NEPAD/CAADP pillars around such
strategic commodities within a framework of regional integration – Regional Strategic Commodity Belts• Sustainable land and water management pillar• Infrastructure, trade capacities and market access
pillar• Food supply chain and emergency response pillar• Research, technology dissemination and adoption
– Regional R&D Centers of Excellence
Additional Challenges for Agricultural R&D Some major R&D issues to ponder:
• Comparative advantage: Re. The development of Regional strategic commodity belts and value chains -- How would climate change impact agro-ecological zones, comparative potential and advantage for different commodities, specialization/diversification?
• Growth and adaptation strategies: What are the implications of CC for research on crop and animal breeding, water resources management, soil fertility management, food crisis prevention strategies, etc.?
Additional Challenges for Agricultural R&D Some major R&D issues to ponder:• Land for forests vs. agriculture: What are the
tradeoffs between expanding land under agriculture and keeping forests for CC mitigation?
• Cropping for food, feed, fiber or fuel: What are the recommendable options, their costs/benefits and R&D implications?
THANK YOU …