CLIMATE CHANGE AND ARMED CONFLICT: THE FUTURE IS NOT SO FAR-OFF
Jim Lee, American UniversityInnovations in Student Leadership Conference, Georgetown, February 2010
LONG TERM AND SHORT TERM PERSPECTIVESForecasts and Scenarios of
Climate Change and Conflict over the next 100 years
Forecasts and Scenarios of Climate Change and Conflict over the next 20 years
RE-THINK THE WORLD: IPCC REGIONS
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN 2100
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN 2100
POST-1945 CONFLICT HISTORY (USING SIPRI)
FUTURE TO 2015 CONFLICTS (USING DOD)
HOT AND COLD WARSHot Wars
War of ContractionLivelihood conflict
Ancient ConflictDeveloping Countries
Cold WarsWar of Expansion
Militarized conflictNew Conflict
Developed Countries
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT: HOT (OLD) AND COLD (NEW) TENSION BELTS
FOUR SHORT TERM THREATS
1. Moving Borders2. Cloud Seeding3. Polar Passages4. African Livelihood and Food Security
1. MOVING MOUNTAIN BORDERS
2. CLOUD SEEDING AROUND THE WORLD (NCAR)
3. POLAR PASSAGES (U. TEXAS)
4A. AFRICA GROWING SEASONS (2050)
4B. POPULATION DENSITIES IN AFRICA
IN SUM…1. Climate change will work with
other social factors to create conflict.
2. Conflict will have it’s own impetus that climate change will accelerate.
3. Forecasting is a politically-influenced process, but there are some clear typologies of behavior.
4. There are on-going, impending , and possible conflicts. These new confluences have already begun.
CONTACT INFORMATION [email protected] James R. Lee, “Climate Change and
Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars” (Routledge, 2009)
Inventory of Conflict and Environment (ICE) in Mandala projectshttp://www1.american.edu/ted/ICE/index.html
Hot and Cold War Projecthttp://www1.american.edu/ted/ICE/climatechange/hotcoldwar.html